Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 14:15:04 GMT -8
Actually I was referring to the 5s and not the c If its called the 5S it will have the same dimensions as the 5. If it has a new edge to edge screen it would be called the iPhone 6 or "new iPhone" - but probably not the 5S.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 9, 2013 14:22:17 GMT -8
Just curious...I admit a preference for all black iPhones, but why would you not want Apple to offer the option? Black front w/blacjk case looks great. Black front w/colored shells look terrible IMO. Well, "De gustibus..." and all that , but still think they should offer the option and adjust the build mix as customers vote with their $
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 14:28:47 GMT -8
For those of you that have access to viewing CNBC Asia, they have been promoting one of their shows due to start in about 3 & Half hours where they will be talking AAPL with Horace Dediu from asymco.com
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Post by rickag on Sept 9, 2013 15:18:48 GMT -8
Well, I had a root canal today, tomorrow has got to be better, a lot better.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 15:46:39 GMT -8
Gruber's making noises about the 4S sticking around. Were it not for him having some sources, I'd say no way. But we 'll see tomorrow.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 9, 2013 15:50:51 GMT -8
I also don't like him saying that the 5c will be at $450. $399 feels like the sweet spot for a rocket launch.
Correction: Gruber says the 5C will be $500 unsubsidized. I think that will cause a return to the stock doldrums, at least until earnings bear out the strategy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 16:05:21 GMT -8
I also don't like him saying that the 5c will be at $450. $399 feels like the sweet spot for a rocket launch. If priced at $400, Apple would be conceding $50 per iPhone in the US market with subsidies in the mix. Internationally, Apple would be betting that new customers with a new mid-tier phone and China Mobile and DoCoMo would alone tap production limits of the 5s and 5c in the first year. $450 makes more sense to me. WS probably wants $400 (whatever). Regardless, Apple will sell all it can produce through FQ2 2014. Interesting that Gruber is thinking $500 per iPhone for the 5c. Is Gruber preparing us for a higher than expected price point? Perhaps.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 16:07:30 GMT -8
Gruber's making noises about the 4S sticking around. Were it not for him having some sources, I'd say no way. But we 'll see tomorrow. Edited for clarity: Maybe that's the answer to blown expectations of a $399 iPhone 5c. $500 for a 5c? I don't see it. A $500 off-subsidy iPhone 5c produces this line-up: 1. 5s for $199 2. 5 for $99 3. 5c for $49
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 9, 2013 16:07:32 GMT -8
I also don't like him saying that the 5c will be at $450. $399 feels like the sweet spot for a rocket launch. If priced at $400, Apple would be conceding $50 per iPhone in the US market with subsidies in the mix. Internationally, Apple would be betting that new customers with a new mid-tier phone and China Mobile and DoCoMo would alone tap production limits of the 5s and 5c in the first year. $450 makes more sense to me. WS probably wants $400 (whatever). Regardless, Apple will sell all it can produce through FQ2 2014. Interesting that Gruber is thinking $500 per iPhone for the 5c. Is Gruber preparing us for a higher than expected price point? Perhaps. $425-$450 works for me
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 16:08:14 GMT -8
I also don't like him saying that the 5c will be at $450. $399 feels like the sweet spot for a rocket launch. Correction: Gruber says the 5C will be $500 unsubsidized. I think that will cause a return to the stock doldrums, at least until earnings bear out the strategy. I agree, $500 would be almost pointless when the iPhone 5 would normally fall one spot down to $550 anyway. $450 US pricing makes sense, with a $399 retail price for the rest of the world (which would replicate existing pricing for the iPhone 4, which is cheaper to buy globally than in the USA).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 16:11:20 GMT -8
Of course its entirely possible apple doesn't actually announced the unsubsidised price at the event. It gives the on contract prices for the devices in the US.
Come to think of it, I don't think Apple normally announces unsubsidised pricing during its launch events.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 9, 2013 16:14:49 GMT -8
Saw this and was reminded how great the analysts were in predicting the future.
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Post by rickag on Sept 9, 2013 16:17:16 GMT -8
I also don't like him saying that the 5c will be at $450. $399 feels like the sweet spot for a rocket launch. Correction: Gruber says the 5C will be $500 unsubsidized. I think that will cause a return to the stock doldrums, at least until earnings bear out the strategy. Doldrums is an understatement.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 16:50:12 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Sept 9, 2013 16:55:58 GMT -8
Gruber's making noises about the 4S sticking around. Were it not for him having some sources, I'd say no way. But we 'll see tomorrow. This has me worried, so I checked out Daring Fireball. The only thing I found was this quote, I am hanging my hat on his statement,"I’m heading into this event mostly in the dark.". Hoping to feel like a 4 year old on Christmas morning rather than my 61 year old self on my birthday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 16:57:11 GMT -8
Icahn about Apple on CNBC earlier:
I believe Apple is a very undervalued situation, just on the numbers. Let's even forget the technology, which, I think they have a great name, great stuff. If you just look — I look for these no-brainers when I invest, and if you look at the numbers, look at the multiples that are going on, look at the great cash flow they have, I mean, so, you really have a lot of protection on the downside. I mean, it's like Netflix (NFLX) was when you first bought it at $58, it's amazing, and that was a no-brainer, because people, a lot of these analysts, you've got $2.5 billion coming in there. So it was the same concept, if you might…
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Post by calvinav on Sept 9, 2013 17:12:53 GMT -8
Gruber's making noises about the 4S sticking around. Were it not for him having some sources, I'd say no way. But we 'll see tomorrow. Edited for clarity: Maybe that's the answer to blown expectations of a $399 iPhone 5c. $500 for a 5c? I don't see it. A $500 off-subsidy iPhone 5c produces this line-up: 1. 5s for $199 2. 5 for $99 3. 5c for $49 Interesting. Asymco had a post last month suggesting 5C's ASP of $499, but as a replacement to 4S: www.asymco.com/2013/08/12/how-will-iphones-5s-and-5c-be-priced/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 17:14:41 GMT -8
Doldrums? First of all unsubsidized pricing won't be known right away. That'll take a few days post-event. Your clue is if the 4S sticks around everywhere, a few markets, or not at all. Also, initial sales reports are likely. If Apple stopped this year it's be horrific PR and Icahn might tweet-cluck in disapproval. Anyway, 10AM PST can't get here soon enough. Hopefully with live streaming video.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 17:23:57 GMT -8
Anyway, 10AM PST can't get here soon enough. Hopefully with live streaming video. Last year's iPhone event was held in San Fran. This year it's on the Apple campus. Odds are improving we get streaming video.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 17:29:58 GMT -8
We can hope. Icahn's not bring terribly coy with his thoughts on AAPL. I'm pretty sure his price objective is beyond the previous ATH.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 17:39:48 GMT -8
Anyone else considering a little insurance before tomorrow's event? If so what strategy are you using.
I'm thinking some weekly put spreads might be worth blowing a little on.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 17:46:10 GMT -8
Tiny chance I'll try and day trade disappointment "real time" if there's a live stream. But not likely. The initial sales are quite likely to prove the pundits wrong as long as the products are solid.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 18:33:30 GMT -8
Spoke again with Sponge today. He is great for getting me to recognize small, but significant, factors impacting earnings.
Something that occurred to me today, was the impact on Gross Margins if iPhone unit sales increase as I'm expecting.
With an 80%+ increase in QoQ sales, carrying Gross Margins of about 50%, overall Gross Margins for FQ1/2014 have the potential to increase to about 41%.
Applying Gross Margin of 40% to my model for FQ1/2014 generates $17.50 EPS (trailing earnings of $43.50).
$43.50 X 14.8 ISM = ~$610 by January Earnings
Guidance just became even more important.
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Post by infohunter on Sept 9, 2013 18:36:56 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 9, 2013 19:08:53 GMT -8
Can't wait for the demo tomorrow.....who's fat finger gets the honor?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 9, 2013 19:12:36 GMT -8
With dumb analysts like Misek who is still able to hold down a job, one has to wonder why the US has ANY unemployment at all. Not to mention all the therapists and antidepressant manufacturers this board is keeping in business. Doldrums, indeed. Last year's iPhone event was held in San Fran. This year it's on the Apple campus. Odds are improving we get streaming video. If that were to happen, then I'm definitely taking a sick day (cough cough).
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Post by sponge on Sept 9, 2013 19:14:33 GMT -8
Well it is clear that Apple was able to accomplish something that even law enforcement could not perfect. I am very impressed and don't mind being proven wrong. I am invested 110% so I won't miss the run up in the next 5 months. I think the fingerprint scanner will make the 5C a non story. We need to get past 585, and right now that is more possible then two months ago. At 585 in Nov I will get over 500% return on my Jan550 calls. Anything above that sooner or later will be very good news indeed.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 19:21:20 GMT -8
Federighi of course.
Schiller - ACCESS DENIED
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 19:28:16 GMT -8
iPhone 5c specs will be announced before price. If it has an A6, WS may register short-term disappointment before pricing is announced. If it has an A5, then pricing should fall in line below $450. Expectations for a $350-$399 iPhone 5c are too high.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 9, 2013 19:29:39 GMT -8
Well it is clear that Apple was able to accomplish something that even law enforcement could not perfect. I am very impressed and don't mind being proven wrong. You are not wrong yet. But if you are, I think what threw you off is equating users (even sophisticated ones like LE) with technology developers/creators. Two different animals. Even the most sophisticated end users and customers are not privy to what a world class tech company like Apple is capable of.
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