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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 11, 2013 4:49:36 GMT -8
Ugh, can't sleep. Is this the new path going forward? Next September, will we see 5S models draped in plastic, with the new-spec'ed model at higher price points? What's wrong with that? Charge a premium price when new, then cost reduce, improve manufacturing costs, etc, and reskin and sell at lower price point. Maintains margins. Agree. If a year from now Apple puts the 5s innards, including the camera and fingerprint scanner, in the plastic shell, move the price point down....powerful move. And it is when the fingerprint authentification is on the broader selling, "cheaper" phone, with a year's experience, that payments can really be emphasized.
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 4:50:40 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Don't understand this comment at all. Yesterday's and today's PM price action are clearly tied to yesterday's event and the perceived disappointment. I don't think that this could be any clearer. iPad is speaking about TA and not event driven. The close below 503 (LOD on 9/9) yesterday was a clear signal of more down to come. Of course the downgrades and, for WS at least, disappointing event didn't help either! TC delivered what everyone expected, there was no WOW effect nor a 'One more thing …' - which I think WS is sometimes still hoping for.
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Post by lance on Sept 11, 2013 4:54:52 GMT -8
I can never listen to Elvis Costello ever again.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 4:56:48 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Don't understand this comment at all. Yesterday's and today's PM price action are clearly tied to yesterday's event and the perceived disappointment. I don't think that this could be any clearer. The retrace was coming; the event was a catalyst. Could have been anything. Moves like the iCahn up (p-word) usually have a similar unraveling move down.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 5:03:32 GMT -8
Don't understand this comment at all. Yesterday's and today's PM price action are clearly tied to yesterday's event and the perceived disappointment. I don't think that this could be any clearer. iPad is speaking about TA and not event driven. The close below 503 (LOD on 9/9) yesterday was a clear signal of more down to come. Of course the downgrades and, for WS at least, disappointing event didn't help either! TC delivered what everyone expected, there was no WOW effect nor a 'One more thing …' - which I think WS is sometimes still hoping for. I will agree to disagree on all of this. In my view the tail is wagging the dog with any suggestion that what we are seeing today is not almost entirely driven by yesterday's event. Technicals have nothing to do with it. The "world" has decided that Apple has screwed up and the stock is paying the price for it.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 11, 2013 5:07:53 GMT -8
The fingerprint button is very interesting. It appears to be used JUST to open the iPhone.
Will it stop thefts?
Will it make a stolen iPhone valuable just for parts?
Today, it looks like RECORD volume pre opening. Over 1.4 million shares traded. WOW!
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Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 5:08:49 GMT -8
Always nice to wake up and see the stock getting pounded in PM. Can't say I'm surprised. Yesterday was majorly disappointing. I assume you mean 5C pricing. If not, ignore the following. I think this is a symptom of pretty much everyone putting words in Apple's mouth and concluding they were going to pursue market share with cheap and lowered margins. It was repeated so often that it became truth. And yet Apple never once gave ANYONE a reason to believe it was moving off premium pricing and branding. Cheap and aspirational are mutually exclusive. Cheap is not a long term strategy. Many believe that Apple lost the PC war because they never got on the cheap bandwagon there either. And that misconception is carried forward until today where many still believe that some other phantom non existent hardware manufacturer(s) "won". And yet, I don't think there is a single PC manufacturer that would not switch places with Apple in a heartbeat if they could. So once again, the whole world, which now apparently includes this Board has a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes Apple tick. So yep, the stock is going to get punished for a while again. But for me at least, I say "so what?". Their message is unchanged: "if you want the best and most obsessively designed products, then buy Apple. If not, then go elsewhere". After thinking about whether I still believe in the Apple story for many months now, and watching what happened yesterday, my conclusion is that they have gotten this right, even if "everyone" thinks they messed up with 5C pricing. Time will tell who is right. I agree with much of what you say, but there is a middle ground between your two scenarios that I think Apple could tap into successfully without diluting their brand image. I'll leave you with this quote: Who said this? Mr. Steven P. Jobs
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 5:11:23 GMT -8
1. People need to stop believing analysts and bloggers who like to pretend they are in the know, when they in fact know squat. 2. Apply the above comment to CM predictions. 3. "No other product rumor panned out". Huh? The products that were predicted to exist, in fact exist. I tried to tell people here several times that the upcoming existence of these products were close to meaningless. What really mattered was the details like pricing, which no one but Apple knew. But I fully expect that at the next announcement, people are gong to be suckered in again to believing all the bull shit being flung by people only interested in page hits, and not accuracy. Just to clarify, I never said 'no other product rumor panned out'. I said once again the China Mobile rumors did not pan out.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 5:11:29 GMT -8
I have read this quote many times and I think it is usually misapplied. This time included.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 11, 2013 5:15:17 GMT -8
Amongst the downgrades, it is good to see an upgrade from Raymond James. PT raised from $600 to $675. 'Strong Buy.'
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 5:18:35 GMT -8
For the ones interested in TA - 466-471 ish is a big area that should hold, if not, next area is 451 (50% retrace from 388-514 run since end of June). Also some analysts - yes I know we hate those scumbags, but WS acts based on some of their expectations/comments - wanted to see an iWatch announcement.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 5:18:42 GMT -8
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Sept 11, 2013 5:18:45 GMT -8
Always nice to wake up and see the stock getting pounded in PM. Can't say I'm surprised. Yesterday was majorly disappointing. Sure it was. I never seem to set the bar high enough for Apple events. One day I'll learn to make an invisible one in the ionosphere. I have to remember the rule, when Tim Cook talks the stock drops.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 5:18:54 GMT -8
The house wins another round. Damn, they're cleaning up and saving a bundle on drinks. WS gets another re-entry position because Apple failed to meet false expectations THEY set.
I knew this was coming but didn't have the courage to trade it.
So glad closing below $503 was a such a clear signal that more down was to come. So predictive --I must have missed the memo last night.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 11, 2013 5:22:28 GMT -8
I have read this quote many times and I think it is usually misapplied. This time included. The event was almost exactly what a person paying attention for the past two weeks would have expected. China Mobile is coming..the license say that. An argument can be made that its best they NOT come on line till November. The only issue, pricing of the 5c, will have to be sorted out in the marketplace. Clearly, Apple is going to push this iteration of the phone massively, worldwide. We will see if selling 58 million phones, or 60 million, or 62 million next quarter ( with margins protected by pricing model) is deemed enough.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 11, 2013 5:22:37 GMT -8
Let's see whether we get a bounce...
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Post by lance on Sept 11, 2013 5:24:21 GMT -8
My take on 5C it is waste till the price drops, No one expect people who love colour will buy it at this price. It is forcing everyone to go old ie ip4S or awesome iPhone 5S. I believe Apple may have a iPhone 6 out may be sooner than expected to move the 5C down the pecking order and get 4S out.
Well at least margins will be high sadly 5C won't sell any units.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 5:28:16 GMT -8
My take on 5C it is waste till the price drops, No one expect people who love colour will buy it at this price. It is forcing everyone to go old ie ip4S or awesome iPhone 5S. I believe Apple may have a iPhone 6 out may be sooner than expected to move the 5C down the pecking order and get 4S out. Well at least margins will be high sadly 5C won't sell any units. Ya, the world is ending.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 11, 2013 5:28:26 GMT -8
My take on 5C it is waste till the price drops, No one expect people who love colour will buy it at this price. It is forcing everyone to go old ie ip4S or awesome iPhone 5S. I believe Apple may have a iPhone 6 out may be sooner than expected to move the 5C down the pecking order and get 4S out. Well at least margins will be high sadly 5C won't sell any units. Everybody and their mother ( in the US) has a buyback program now...the carriers will be showing how easy and cheap it is to get that 4s traded in . Around the world? We need some novel financing arrangements.....but I think that is starting to show..
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 5:29:23 GMT -8
If this is the reaction to no CM deal, can you imagine what the stock will do when it is announced.
Nov will be a month to remember.
Will try to transfer more money and buy this dip. Having sold so much stock, I am less impacted by these type of drops relative to margin calls.
Buy the dip because we will recover faster and harder then most expect.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 11, 2013 5:30:26 GMT -8
For the ones interested in TA - 466-471 ish is a big area that should hold, if not, next area is 451 (50% retrace from 388-514 run since end of June). Also some analysts - yes I know we hate those scumbags, but WS acts based on some of their expectations/comments - wanted to see an iWatch announcement. my goodness..... before the open 467
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 5:31:21 GMT -8
My take on 5C it is waste till the price drops, No one expect people who love colour will buy it at this price. It is forcing everyone to go old ie ip4S or awesome iPhone 5S. I believe Apple may have a iPhone 6 out may be sooner than expected to move the 5C down the pecking order and get 4S out. Well at least margins will be high sadly 5C won't sell any units. Ya, the world is ending. The world will reboot by next Friday.
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Post by cbingle on Sept 11, 2013 5:32:07 GMT -8
This will at least shake out some weak Carl followers. I was upset initially as well, but now I believe it is a good move on products and pricing.
The 5c will sell more than a 5. Margins will be better More choice for more types of people They would not have enough supply if CM was now And the one that Apple still believes, and we should too.... There is no money to make on a $300 phone.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 11, 2013 5:32:21 GMT -8
If this is the reaction to no CM deal, can you imagine what the stock will do when it is announced. Nov will be a month to remember. Will try to transfer more money and buy this dip. Having sold so much stock, I am less impacted by these type of drops relative to margin calls. Buy the dip because we will recover faster and harder then most expect. Sponge, it wouldn't be a decent dip unless we got a post from you with the words "margin call", "recover fast". I can have my coffee now. The world's still spinning....
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 5:34:52 GMT -8
If this is the reaction to no CM deal, can you imagine what the stock will do when it is announced. Nov will be a month to remember. Will try to transfer more money and buy this dip. Having sold so much stock, I am less impacted by these type of drops relative to margin calls. Buy the dip because we will recover faster and harder then most expect. everyone knows the CM deal will happen. As said they have the license etc etc. I think it will go up less when announced, than it has gone down now. I think those who expected it now were basing all those sales to happen in the upcoming quarter, but now those will have to wait till 2014 for china mobile. for those with free cash, the opportunities in the first 30 seconds of trading for far out options, even 1 year +, are (were) insane.
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 5:35:10 GMT -8
If this is the reaction to no CM deal, can you imagine what the stock will do when it is announced. Nov will be a month to remember. Will try to transfer more money and buy this dip. Having sold so much stock, I am less impacted by these type of drops relative to margin calls. Buy the dip because we will recover faster and harder then most expect. Sponge, it wouldn't be a decent dip unless we got a post from you with the words "margin call", "recover fast". I can have my coffee now. The world's still spinning.... Hey I aim to comfort during good times and bad times.
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Post by cbingle on Sept 11, 2013 5:35:54 GMT -8
One more comment...
Once Apple breaks it's premium status, it is just another company. They know that. I think this move is actually quite brilliant. If you want the best product, ya gotta pay for it. Pretty simple.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 5:36:03 GMT -8
5C will do very well in the subsidized markets. I expect to see a lot of coloured iPhones out in the wild in very short order. Then again, the 5 would have done well also. It will be hard to determine the incremental impact this change will have.
International markets are the key.
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Post by Iceage on Sept 11, 2013 5:39:55 GMT -8
One more comment... Once Apple breaks it's premium status, it is just another company. They know that. I think this move is actually quite brilliant. If you want the best product, ya gotta pay for it. Pretty simple. +1
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 11, 2013 5:42:07 GMT -8
Bought November 470/485 BCS at the open.
Done now.....we'll see
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