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Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 5:43:50 GMT -8
One more comment... Once Apple breaks it's premium status, it is just another company. They know that. I think this move is actually quite brilliant. If you want the best product, ya gotta pay for it. Pretty simple. +1 + everything except my new 5S
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Post by rezonate on Sept 11, 2013 5:44:54 GMT -8
Was there any discussion here yesterday about the M7 chip? Apart from the camera enhancements the M7 was the most significant reveal yesterday. The Touch ID sensor is spectacular, dense and useful tech, but it's a one trick pony. The M7 brings the ability to digitally quantify several aspects of the analog world *at low power states*. As the SoCal pigeon in the Pixar movie BOLT said "this is gonna be HUGE, man!"
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Post by lulli on Sept 11, 2013 5:47:05 GMT -8
So now "investors" are complaining that the prices are too high and don't address emerging markets?
What I don't understand is why the following argument is not widely made:
Apple will most probably be supply constrained on the 5C and 5S until the end of this year. Hence, it doesn't make sense to lower prices now.
The "necessity" of heaving a cheaper phone for emerging markets is a long-term concern that they should address once they can actually make enough new phones to sell to those markets. It would not make any sense to lower prices for emerging markets right now if they don't have the amount of phones to sell there. The 5C is a first step in that direction, but it is initially sold at high prices because they can't make enough of them (yet).
In other words, they can address emerging markets by lowering prices once the market interested in latest at greatest at any price is saturated. While it may become saturated long-term, it will most certainly not be saturated up until Chinese New Year.
WS (or even speculators) should know this. Last year apple sold every 5 phone they could made, and they still did not have enough, and people bought the older versions. So they left margin on the table.
Why should they now lower their margins if they don't sell more phones because of that? Probably at Apple know all this, they know they can make 50 million phones or so until the end of the year, they know they can sell them all, and they choose their prices accordingly. Then in the future they can lower the prices on the 5C and make more people happy.
What's wrong with the above point of view that not more people repeat it?
Suggestions?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 11, 2013 5:52:49 GMT -8
So now "investors" are complaining that the prices are too high and don't address emerging markets? What I don't understand is why the following argument is not widely made: Apple will most probably be supply constrained on the 5C and 5S until the end of this year. Hence, it doesn't make sense to lower prices now.The "necessity" of heaving a cheaper phone for emerging markets is a long-term concern that they should address once they can actually make enough new phones to sell to those markets. It would not make any sense to lower prices for emerging markets right now if they don't have the amount of phones to sell there. The 5C is a first step in that direction, but it is initially sold at high prices because they can't make enough of them (yet). In other words, they can address emerging markets by lowering prices once the market interested in latest at greatest at any price is saturated. While it may become saturated long-term, it will most certainly not be saturated up until Chinese New Year. WS (or even speculators) should know this. Last year apple sold every 5 phone they could made, and they still did not have enough, and people bought the older versions. So they left margin on the table. Why should they now lower their margins if they don't sell more phones because of that? Probably at Apple know all this, they know they can make 50 million phones or so until the end of the year, they know they can sell them all, and they choose their prices accordingly. Then in the future they can lower the prices on the 5C and make more people happy. What's wrong with the above point of view that not more people repeat it? Suggestions? Nothing wrong with it. Pricing is flexible....sell as high as you can as long as you can...then adjust. Margins are protected and earnings will be fine.
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 5:53:49 GMT -8
Here came the bounce to 473 - what was once support became now resistance.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 5:58:26 GMT -8
This will at least shake out some weak Carl followers. I was upset initially as well, but now I believe it is a good move on products and pricing. The 5c will sell more than a 5. Margins will be better More choice for more types of people They would not have enough supply if CM was now And the one that Apple still believes, and we should too.... There is no money to make on a $300 phone. I kind of agree, but I have a couple thoughts/concerns that have been brewing in my head: A) Status symbol thought: In the past, people who had the old phone when the new phone came out, could just say that their phone was new at once point and they are just waiting for their upgrade. Now if anyone has a color phone instead of the 5S, people know they got the 'cheap' version, even though the 5C is still a beast compared to the 5. B) Here is a comparison from the 5C to the 5S in features: 1. Smaller size/weight Height: 4.87 inches (123.8 mm) vs 4.90 inches (124.4 mm) Width: 2.31 inches (58.6 mm) vs 2.33 inches (59.2 mm) Depth: 0.30 inch (7.6 mm) vs 0.35 inch (8.97 mm) Weight: 3.95 ounces (112 grams) vs 4.65 ounces (132 grams) 2. 2x faster processor with motion processor 3. Fingerprint Sensor 4. improved camera 5. Slo-Mo video capabilities 6. Burst mode 7. metal 'mature' look vs plastic 'fun colorful' look. My opinion: #1 Size/weight difference is negligible #2 Speed difference is significant, but the phone is already faster than I need it to be. I've never felt that my 4S was the slightest bit slow. #3 Smart ID is huge, but it also will be 10x more huge in a year or two when other companies/stores/apps all support that and use it. So it may not be 100% necessary to someone making the decision of which to get. #4 I use my phone as my only camera, so I love the better camera/larger pixels/better flash etc. #5 very excited for slo mo video even if this is a 'gimmick'. I know it exists on the S4 already, but I still want it. #6 same as #5 #7 I really like both looks. I usually get a case for my phone regardless because I get scared of a bad drop, and I could see a colorful 5C option as fun to have. However I will be honest that I wouldn't want people to think I cheaped out when they see the color of my phone (haha sounds bad but it is true). From a features standpoint, and as it has been said before, the extra $100 cost for the 5S is well worth it for me and my wife. As for my parents who also are upgrading, I could see the 5C being a fun option for them. For younger kids who have phones these days (I see 8-10 year olds with iphones), the 5C seems great. For highschool/college kids, I could see them throwing a tantrum to get the 5S again because of the status symbol and they don't want people to think they can only afford the cheap phone. Are my above age breakdowns the implied target markets that everyone will agree with? No Do the above breakdowns differ from country-to-country? Somewhat, but not necessarily. If the 5C was $100 less than the current price, I think A LOT of people would justify buying that instead of the 5S. So in a sense I am happy they are only $100 apart, but in that same exact sense, I am worried that not enough people will want the 5C when/if the 5S is equally available. Sorry for long-winded post- just wanted to get it out there as it was coming out of my head.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 11, 2013 5:59:30 GMT -8
Anyone expecting a nice rebound due to a CM deal being struck is going to be disappointed in my opinion. Yes there is a huge customer base but with the high entry price of the iPhone line not many will take advantage. It's better than not having a deal with CM but I can't imagine it being a game changer. With the 5C price Apple has ceded Asia and will be a niche player.
The demand is most certainly there but the simple economics cannot be ignored.
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Post by lulli on Sept 11, 2013 6:04:30 GMT -8
Anyone expecting a nice rebound due to a CM deal being struck is going to be disappointed in my opinion. Yes there is a huge customer base but with the high entry price of the iPhone line not many will take advantage. It's better than not having a deal with CM but I can't imagine it being a game changer. With the 5C price Apple has ceded Asia and will be a niche player. The demand is most certainly there but the simple economics cannot be ignored. All signs are that CM will start selling iPhones next year. Which, depending on how many phones there are to sell for the next three months, may make a lot of sense. Either CM starts selling now and there are no phones to sell, or they start selling later. Again, if the system is supply constrained, then one needs to take it into account when arguing optimum price and release schedule.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 6:06:37 GMT -8
The demand is most certainly there but the simple economics cannot be ignored. The same way it happens in this country, people will buy what they cannot afford. A couple % each quarter of China Mobile subscribers is an extra 10/15/20million iphones... Currently some workers use a full months paycheck (~800) to buy an iphone out there. China Mobile just allows this effect to be scaled to a much larger amount of people.
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 6:12:15 GMT -8
I guess WS answer to yesterday is a big yawn and 5C (=Cheap), 5S (=Same).
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Post by lance on Sept 11, 2013 6:18:10 GMT -8
Does anyone on this site now want to buy or know anyone who wants to buy iP5C? I know I am 100% iP5S. It is great phone for the price. But who will buy the 5C?
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Post by zzmac on Sept 11, 2013 6:19:57 GMT -8
I think the idea that the 5C is a "cheap" phone because it has a plastic cover is ridiculous. This will at least shake out some weak Carl followers. I was upset initially as well, but now I believe it is a good move on products and pricing. The 5c will sell more than a 5. Margins will be better More choice for more types of people They would not have enough supply if CM was now And the one that Apple still believes, and we should too.... There is no money to make on a $300 phone. I kind of agree, but I have a couple thoughts/concerns that have been brewing in my head: A) Status symbol thought: In the past, people who had the old phone when the new phone came out, could just say that their phone was new at once point and they are just waiting for their upgrade. Now if anyone has a color phone instead of the 5S, people know they got the 'cheap' version, even though the 5C is still a beast compared to the 5. B) Here is a comparison from the 5C to the 5S in features: 1. Smaller size/weight Height: 4.87 inches (123.8 mm) vs 4.90 inches (124.4 mm) Width: 2.31 inches (58.6 mm) vs 2.33 inches (59.2 mm) Depth: 0.30 inch (7.6 mm) vs 0.35 inch (8.97 mm) Weight: 3.95 ounces (112 grams) vs 4.65 ounces (132 grams) 2. 2x faster processor with motion processor 3. Fingerprint Sensor 4. improved camera 5. Slo-Mo video capabilities 6. Burst mode 7. metal 'mature' look vs plastic 'fun colorful' look. My opinion: #1 Size/weight difference is negligible #2 Speed difference is significant, but the phone is already faster than I need it to be. I've never felt that my 4S was the slightest bit slow. #3 Smart ID is huge, but it also will be 10x more huge in a year or two when other companies/stores/apps all support that and use it. So it may not be 100% necessary to someone making the decision of which to get. #4 I use my phone as my only camera, so I love the better camera/larger pixels/better flash etc. #5 very excited for slo mo video even if this is a 'gimmick'. I know it exists on the S4 already, but I still want it. #6 same as #5 #7 I really like both looks. I usually get a case for my phone regardless because I get scared of a bad drop, and I could see a colorful 5C option as fun to have. However I will be honest that I wouldn't want people to think I cheaped out when they see the color of my phone (haha sounds bad but it is true). From a features standpoint, and as it has been said before, the extra $100 cost for the 5S is well worth it for me and my wife. As for my parents who also are upgrading, I could see the 5C being a fun option for them. For younger kids who have phones these days (I see 8-10 year olds with iphones), the 5C seems great. For highschool/college kids, I could see them throwing a tantrum to get the 5S again because of the status symbol and they don't want people to think they can only afford the cheap phone. Are my above age breakdowns the implied target markets that everyone will agree with? No Do the above breakdowns differ from country-to-country? Somewhat, but not necessarily. If the 5C was $100 less than the current price, I think A LOT of people would justify buying that instead of the 5S. So in a sense I am happy they are only $100 apart, but in that same exact sense, I am worried that not enough people will want the 5C when/if the 5S is equally available. Sorry for long-winded post- just wanted to get it out there as it was coming out of my head.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 11, 2013 6:21:55 GMT -8
The last couple of days have proven me insane: you know, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Kind of like Charlie Brown year after year expecting Lucy not to yank away the football at the last second.
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 6:25:18 GMT -8
So now "investors" are complaining that the prices are too high and don't address emerging markets? What I don't understand is why the following argument is not widely made: Apple will most probably be supply constrained on the 5C and 5S until the end of this year. Hence, it doesn't make sense to lower prices now.The "necessity" of heaving a cheaper phone for emerging markets is a long-term concern that they should address once they can actually make enough new phones to sell to those markets. It would not make any sense to lower prices for emerging markets right now if they don't have the amount of phones to sell there. The 5C is a first step in that direction, but it is initially sold at high prices because they can't make enough of them (yet). In other words, they can address emerging markets by lowering prices once the market interested in latest at greatest at any price is saturated. While it may become saturated long-term, it will most certainly not be saturated up until Chinese New Year. WS (or even speculators) should know this. Last year apple sold every 5 phone they could made, and they still did not have enough, and people bought the older versions. So they left margin on the table. Why should they now lower their margins if they don't sell more phones because of that? Probably at Apple know all this, they know they can make 50 million phones or so until the end of the year, they know they can sell them all, and they choose their prices accordingly. Then in the future they can lower the prices on the 5C and make more people happy. What's wrong with the above point of view that not more people repeat it? Suggestions? Well said. Apple plans ahead and one must look where the 5C will be priced in two years. At $399 then, Apple will start to really penetrate emerging markets in a big way. And still maintain solid margins. I had an argument with my 12 year old this morning who was ready to cry when I told her she can't have the 5C. She is not ready for a cellphone, but after seeing the 5C she thought she could persuade me since it is just the right color and dimensions. She saw the $99 price, but forgets the $40 a month fee. That scene will replay around the world with millions of families. Over time some will give in, but in two years it will be a no brainier.
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Post by macwire on Sept 11, 2013 6:25:41 GMT -8
Still HEAVY
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 6:28:36 GMT -8
I think the idea that the 5C is a "cheap" phone because it has a plastic cover is ridiculous. i personally agree with you, but in the industry plastic is considered cheap vs something in metal. but you are missing my point. If the two phones were identical in both features and price except for the case, then we can argue if the plastic look is considered cheap or not. but the fact is that the 5C is $100 less, and is noticeably different in color. Anyone who sees a neon colored iphone knows that person purchased the less expensive version. This then can be associated with 'cheap' version (regardless of the amazing engineering and structural integrity of the 5C, or how similar the phones are).
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 11, 2013 6:35:53 GMT -8
The demand is most certainly there but the simple economics cannot be ignored. The same way it happens in this country, people will buy what they cannot afford. A couple % each quarter of China Mobile subscribers is an extra 10/15/20million iphones... Currently some workers use a full months paycheck (~800) to buy an iphone out there. China Mobile just allows this effect to be scaled to a much larger amount of people. I would disagree as our system of subsidies really helps sell high end phones. 90% of people with cell phones don't even understand their phone is subsidized .... if you actually had to pay almost $700 up front for a iPhone you would see a dramatic decrease of sales even in this country. Due to the fact that Asia and Europe do not use this system price is even more sensitive.
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 6:40:07 GMT -8
I had an argument with my 12 year old this morning who was ready to cry when I told her she can't have the 5C. She is not ready for a cellphone, but after seeing the 5C she thought she could persuade me since it is just the right color and dimensions. She saw the $99 price, but forgets the $40 a month fee. I am sure TC completely disagrees with your parenting style … ;D ;D
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Post by zzmac on Sept 11, 2013 6:41:25 GMT -8
I disagree. When people see someone with a neon 5C, they're going to say what a cool phone (if they happen to like the particular color). The only reason people are calling it a cheap phone is because it's been drilled into them by everyone who bit on the notion that Apple was coming out with a "cheap" phone for CM. TC has been very clear in saying they won't produce one just so they can get more market share. I don't see any big surprise here. And most people put a cover over their phone hiding the expensive covers anyways. The 5C will sell well and so will the 5S. This is just another buying opportunity. I think the idea that the 5C is a "cheap" phone because it has a plastic cover is ridiculous. i personally agree with you, but in the industry plastic is considered cheap vs something in metal. but you are missing my point. If the two phones were identical in both features and price except for the case, then we can argue if the plastic look is considered cheap or not. but the fact is that the 5C is $100 less, and is noticeably different in color. Anyone who sees a neon colored iphone knows that person purchased the less expensive version. This then can be associated with 'cheap' version (regardless of the amazing engineering and structural integrity of the 5C, or how similar the phones are).
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 11, 2013 6:46:46 GMT -8
So now "investors" are complaining that the prices are too high and don't address emerging markets? What I don't understand is why the following argument is not widely made: Apple will most probably be supply constrained on the 5C and 5S until the end of this year. Hence, it doesn't make sense to lower prices now.The "necessity" of heaving a cheaper phone for emerging markets is a long-term concern that they should address once they can actually make enough new phones to sell to those markets. It would not make any sense to lower prices for emerging markets right now if they don't have the amount of phones to sell there. The 5C is a first step in that direction, but it is initially sold at high prices because they can't make enough of them (yet). In other words, they can address emerging markets by lowering prices once the market interested in latest at greatest at any price is saturated. While it may become saturated long-term, it will most certainly not be saturated up until Chinese New Year. WS (or even speculators) should know this. Last year apple sold every 5 phone they could made, and they still did not have enough, and people bought the older versions. So they left margin on the table. Why should they now lower their margins if they don't sell more phones because of that? Probably at Apple know all this, they know they can make 50 million phones or so until the end of the year, they know they can sell them all, and they choose their prices accordingly. Then in the future they can lower the prices on the 5C and make more people happy. What's wrong with the above point of view that not more people repeat it? Suggestions? Well said. Apple plans ahead and one must look where the 5C will be priced in two years. At $399 then, Apple will start to really penetrate emerging markets in a big way. And still maintain solid margins. I had an argument with my 12 year old this morning who was ready to cry when I told her she can't have the 5C. She is not ready for a cellphone, but after seeing the 5C she thought she could persuade me since it is just the right color and dimensions. She saw the $99 price, but forgets the $40 a month fee. That scene will replay around the world with millions of families. Over time some will give in, but in two years it will be a no brainier. With the pace of innovation ... trying to be competitive in two years is no way to do business in high tech. The time is NOW and Apple simply dropped the ball on price. They could have used a slower processor , cheaper camera and cut corners to come out with a less expensive phone. It could have still commanded a premium price when compared with Andriod offerings and still sold well with the Apple ecosystem behind it. There was a nice middle ground between price and performance, at the end of the day millions of people don't give a rat's ass what processor is in their phone (go ask anyone with a Android device ...) they just want a iPhone. I mentioned this earlier ... we just had a niece from Italy staying with us for a month. She is 14 and was dying for an iPhone as were all of her friends none of which have one simply because they cost too much. She did not care about the specific features .... simply wanted an iPhone. I believe most people are in the same boat as her .... it's geeks like us who care about that crap but the larger market segment does not. I was really hoping Apple would have addressed that market ... they didn't. Not everyone can afford a top of the line Macbook pro ... that's why they had a regular Macbook at almost HALF the price. I love Apple but they fucked up.
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Post by prazan on Sept 11, 2013 6:52:14 GMT -8
Both the 50 day and the 61.8% fib retracement line up in the region of 465 so I'm hoping we hold the line here.
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 7:04:33 GMT -8
Both the 50 day and the 61.8% fib retracement line up in the region of 465 so I'm hoping we hold the line here. I think we will. TC and company have been given one more opportunity to buy back cheap. Want to remind everyone that Apple had 20% iPhone growth last quarter. We will have new iPads in one month, earnings, CM, and maybe one surprise by end of year. Everyone will sing a new tune in Jan.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 11, 2013 7:14:57 GMT -8
One reason I am considering "upgrading" my iPhone 5 to 5C Warranty. Never bought apple care. Limited warranty only good for one year Already updated iOS 7 with productivity apps (this is huge) If I can sell my ip5 for $300-$400 out of pocket will not be too terrible.
But then I also think if I am paying out of pocket just go to the 5s since the pricing difference is only $100
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 7:15:45 GMT -8
Personally I think AAPL will have an amazing earnings report in January...the iPhone 5C will sell OK, but margins will be higher than the iPhone 5 would have been if it had been the $99 phone. The iPhone 5S should have higher margins than the iPhone 5 from last year's period, since they've been using the same form factor for the past year.
Also, the fact that Japan Docomo is finally on will help a lot. Finally, the fact that all of Asia will be included in the initial launch will deliver huge demand for the iPhone in the next few months. The only question is how fast they can produce iPhones.
Nevermind the fact that we should have new iPads in the next few months which will help the holiday quarter.
With all that said, I still can't believe they don't have a better solution for Emerging Markets...selling 3 year old technology for more than a competitive Nexus 4 is crazy. Emerging Markets dont want 3 year old technology, they want new Tech just like all of us and Asia more than anywhere seems to love Phablets, and Apple is still ignoring this trend. I feel Apple/Tim Cook is feeling pressure from the past terrible year and they'll now report a couple of very strong quarters at a very serious risk of losing the Emerging Markets.
A 50 to 1 ratio of Android to iPhone in Emerging Markets is not OK, and this is where it's headed and Apple hasn't done anything to slow it down with yesterdays news.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 7:24:33 GMT -8
Largely overlooked in all of the pricing debate is the value and impact of the free apps that are now part of these devices. A pretty respectable productivity suite, movie, and photo editing that used to cost $40-$50. I think there are a lot of customers that are going to see this as an effective price cut, and that will have reason to become more committed to the Apple ecosystem. Clearly the market attaches no value to this, but I am betting a lot of customers do.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 11, 2013 7:25:07 GMT -8
"iPhone 5C will sell OK, but margins will be higher than the iPhone 5 would have been if it had been the $99 phone."
Everyone keeps saying that margins on the 5c will be higher than margins on the 5 would have been. I can see why someone would think that, but its definitely not a sure thing. As you also pointed out, their margins increase when producing the same form factor for the second year in a row. So, 5c may have a cheaper body shell (again, an assumption), but because its a new manufacturing process and also because they're producing it in 5 different colors instead of 2, the new manufacturing inefficiencids might cancel out or even overcome whatever benefit there might be in a change of materials. We don't know yet.
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 7:31:24 GMT -8
Consumers want Apple products and dumping Samsung. venturebeat.com/2013/09/10/samsung-trade-ins-way-up-on-apples-big-iphone-announcement-day/Can you imagine market share increases as Apple moves those cheaper iPhone trade ins? I believe the selloff would have happened regardless of what was announced. I just wished we were at 530 not 490. Patience my Apple faithful. Think today like it was end of July when we hit 390. A month later we were at 513. This stock is being used by WS to make millions of small and short term investors. Drops like this have happened before and they happen again.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 11, 2013 7:56:16 GMT -8
FWIW, this market does not feel to me like it is being driven by sophisticated technical traders, algorithms, or even fundamental investors. It feels like it is being driven by amateurs. Look at the reaction to Icahn. His share was way to small to have any real influence and the stock jumps 22 points. And today, even though we have hard evidence from the issued approvals that CM will happen, there is a huge sell off because it was not announced when the herd expected it.
I am not complaining, mind you. On the contrary, i think it is time to recognize this market for what it is and start trusting in the stupidity of the masses. It may be true that institutions own 65% of the stock, but then anyone with over 1000 shares is considered an institution. There are 900 million shares outstanding and 20 million can change the price by 30 points up or down. Do you think there are 20 million unsophisticated investors out there that don't think things through? I do. i am not going to abandon my position with the mortgage and the covered calls, but i am going to start looking hard at how to test and exploit these assumptions
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 11, 2013 7:59:03 GMT -8
$465 is where i bought my commons pre-icahn tweet... how ironic! not sure whether to buy or sell... will wait and see. was happy that my stop-loss was at $485 (and didn't hit) instead of $490 yesterday but not anymore. lol
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 11, 2013 8:00:45 GMT -8
2:14 jump to 480 please
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