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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 11, 2013 8:15:47 GMT -8
FYY - Katy Huberty coming on CNBC right now to say WS has it all wrong and to make the bull case for AAPL - if anyone cares....well I guess I will be taunted and have to watch the whole Half Time Show - they'll leave this segment (probably) for the end.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 11, 2013 8:17:25 GMT -8
So glad closing below $503 was a such a clear signal that more down was to come. So predictive --I must have missed the memo last night. Mercel...you are quickly becoming my favorite poster here. When are you starting your blog?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 8:17:53 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Saying that on a -5% day. Careful iPad. It sounds more knowing than anyone here could be. I defy anyone to say with a straight face this reverse train day was foreseen. This too shall pass, or not
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 8:20:57 GMT -8
So glad closing below $503 was a such a clear signal that more down was to come. So predictive --I must have missed the memo last night. Mercel...you are quickly becoming my favorite poster here. When are you starting your blog? Just don't follow his investing advice - since he seems to miss all the important memos !
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Post by valere on Sept 11, 2013 8:21:19 GMT -8
I think people really are underestimating the value of the fingerprint sensor... yeah Dell had one on its laptop a few years ago but this is not just about device security anymore , but about payments and ...that will be a game changer
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Post by The Big Toe on Sept 11, 2013 8:23:07 GMT -8
I think I am getting the rhythm here. Tim Cook speaks, sell. New product announced, sell. Gene Munster speeks, sell. Earnings coming out, sell. Figure out when some hedge fund manager tweets that he has bought, and buy (?)
I like the 5s. Nothing stands out as OMG for the general public, but I beleive there are capabilities coming that will make this device very different from the competition. I see tweets from Motorolla and Samsung dishing on the fingerprint scanner... that tells me this may be a good thing.
I think I read somewhere on this site about the scanner also being like a trackpad. Could a future use be like a joystick for gaming?
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Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 8:26:27 GMT -8
Wow - I really overslept this time … I lost an entire month!! :-)
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Post by rickag on Sept 11, 2013 8:33:33 GMT -8
... the stupidity of the masses... dumb bunnies? Now who used that... JD
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 8:36:43 GMT -8
What a cretinous, kneejerk reaction by Wall Street. Down 40 bucks for pulling the same move with the iPhone that Apple pulled with the iPod (in releasing the iPod mini), and which sent AAPL from sub-$20 to much, much higher. What a bunch of chumps.
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Post by zebrum on Sept 11, 2013 8:37:59 GMT -8
The 5C/5S was a pretty genius move. They took the already manufactured internals of iPhone 5 and put it in a cheaper plastic case, and they took the already manufactured casings of the 5 and make the flash hole bigger for the 5S. Thus although the 5 is no longer on sale Apples made no loss on the manufacture of the old parts. Dropped the price on the 5C a little to expand the market share a little but offset by a cheaper plastic case and rubber outer case. Profit margins remain massive!
If they didn't have the 5C then the 5 with a price drop would have and canibilized sales of the 5S because the new features aren't impressive enough. And the low end of the market can still be happy with the free 4S!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 11, 2013 8:38:12 GMT -8
So now "investors" are complaining that the prices are too high and don't address emerging markets? What I don't understand is why the following argument is not widely made: Apple will most probably be supply constrained on the 5C and 5S until the end of this year. Hence, it doesn't make sense to lower prices now.The "necessity" of heaving a cheaper phone for emerging markets is a long-term concern that they should address once they can actually make enough new phones to sell to those markets. It would not make any sense to lower prices for emerging markets right now if they don't have the amount of phones to sell there. The 5C is a first step in that direction, but it is initially sold at high prices because they can't make enough of them (yet). In other words, they can address emerging markets by lowering prices once the market interested in latest at greatest at any price is saturated. While it may become saturated long-term, it will most certainly not be saturated up until Chinese New Year. WS (or even speculators) should know this. Last year apple sold every 5 phone they could made, and they still did not have enough, and people bought the older versions. So they left margin on the table. Why should they now lower their margins if they don't sell more phones because of that? Probably at Apple know all this, they know they can make 50 million phones or so until the end of the year, they know they can sell them all, and they choose their prices accordingly. Then in the future they can lower the prices on the 5C and make more people happy. What's wrong with the above point of view that not more people repeat it? Suggestions? Well said. Apple plans ahead and one must look where the 5C will be priced in two years. At $399 then, Apple will start to really penetrate emerging markets in a big way. And still maintain solid margins. I had an argument with my 12 year old this morning who was ready to cry when I told her she can't have the 5C. She is not ready for a cellphone, but after seeing the 5C she thought she could persuade me since it is just the right color and dimensions. She saw the $99 price, but forgets the $40 a month fee. That scene will replay around the world with millions of families. Over time some will give in, but in two years it will be a no brainier. The Sponge. Still the bestest of all time on AFB. Sorry Mercel - you're #2 until further notice.
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Post by geraci on Sept 11, 2013 8:40:51 GMT -8
I think I read somewhere on this site about the scanner also being like a trackpad. Could a future use be like a joystick for gaming? Interesting... this totally didn't occur to me, but this should be possible. Sort of like the Lenovo "belly button" joystick, but in a touch screen implementation. But still, why not just touch the screen? I am having a hard time coming up with a good use-case for this idea. Edit: Ahh... gaming. I should have read the last part of your comment more closely.
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 11, 2013 8:42:54 GMT -8
this is such an overreaction to unfounded expectations - it just sucks. ws analysts are short sighted little babies - they want aapl to give them everything and anything short of that is another headline that aapl is no longer innovating, growing, blah blah. on the other hand, at least their expectations remain high, which i see it as a good thing. once people stop expecting great things from aapl, then it's time to sell. if they were going to retrace anyway, then let's get this over with and continue onward and upward. prefer this over a slow spiral of death.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 8:49:49 GMT -8
The Sponge. Still the bestest of all time on AFB. Sorry Mercel - you're #2 until further notice. Thanks for the left-handed compliment, oh wait, I'm a lefty. ;D And next time TA signals an obvious move, please put me on the distribution list. Until then, I'll rely on my own instincts, thank you very much. And for the record, I called it pre-event, saying the biggest risk to AAPL was market disappointment to 5c pricing, missing analyst expectations.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 8:51:53 GMT -8
You did. I should subscribe to you!
Btw, I said last night to hold on to your hats on the blog - that count? ;D (kidding!)
Eh, if it's 440, 400, 385, bring it. Fear doesn't control me. I have a slide rule now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 8:54:34 GMT -8
I already have some potential titles for tonight's AAPLTalk (btw, I started it when AAPL was at considerably lower ebb) - Don't Catch a Falling Crate of Knives. Whatcha think
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 8:57:40 GMT -8
I used instincts to sell lots of shares yesterday. I am a believer in TA and right now it shows 550+ by end of year.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 9:07:54 GMT -8
I used instincts to sell lots of shares yesterday. I am a believer in TA and right now it shows 550+ by end of year. Didnt you sell shares to buy options?? If so, you would have got pummeled much worse with options than just shares.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 9:09:19 GMT -8
Btw, to update my holdings:
Wish I had more cash TBT BCS from 79ish (not enough antacids for that one) Long XOM calls (but not for...long?) NFLX 280/300/320 Oct butterfly that's probably up all of 10% because I shoulda just plain bought calls AAPL BCS, oh well for now
This tunnel vision trader is mildly "diversified" in my sad little trading portfolio, but it doesn't make me less irritated at some of what I'm hearing here.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 9:11:43 GMT -8
Well said. Apple plans ahead and one must look where the 5C will be priced in two years. At $399 then, Apple will start to really penetrate emerging markets in a big way. And still maintain solid margins. I had an argument with my 12 year old this morning who was ready to cry when I told her she can't have the 5C. She is not ready for a cellphone, but after seeing the 5C she thought she could persuade me since it is just the right color and dimensions. She saw the $99 price, but forgets the $40 a month fee. That scene will replay around the world with millions of families. Over time some will give in, but in two years it will be a no brainier. The Sponge. Still the bestest of all time on AFB. Sorry Mercel - you're #2 until further notice. So in 2 years, Apple will start to penetrate the Emerging Market? That's the grand plan...so sell a 3 year old phone for double what new Android phones from Google/Motorola will sell for? Why would it be any different than today and selling the iPhone 4 for $399ish? It's the same age as the 5C would be in 2 years and I can tell you the iPhone 4 won't grab a large market share increase in China in the next year.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 11, 2013 9:15:49 GMT -8
Btw, to update my holdings: Wish I had more cash TBT BCS from 79ish (not enough antacids for that one) Long XOM calls (but not for...long?) NFLX 280/300/320 Oct butterfly that's probably up all of 10% because I shoulda just plain bought calls AAPL BCS, oh well for now This tunnel vision trader is mildly "diversified" in my sad little trading portfolio, but it doesn't make me less irritated at some of what I'm hearing here. Thanks.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 11, 2013 9:15:56 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 9:33:13 GMT -8
I used instincts to sell lots of shares yesterday. I am a believer in TA and right now it shows 550+ by end of year. Didnt you sell shares to buy options?? If so, you would have got pummeled much worse with options than just shares. Yes but I have 5 months to recover. With shares I would have been forced to sell at a loss today. I had no idea we would drop today. But given the weakness I felt prudent to lighten up on margined shares yesterday. We breached 500 and will get there and beyond in short order. Apple is up over 40% from the lows two years ago. One must be patient.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 9:37:36 GMT -8
Patrick Seitz is adorable. And I don't read Investors Business Daily anyway.
Oh yes. Tim had better deliver. Like always.
So Pat, wake me up when Tim's board vote count is <90%, that is if he isn't outright booted out by the board before the next shareholder's meeting. Or when Icahn (or is it Ichan, as I keep hearing from people won't can't or won't spell correctly) makes dissatisfied tweets.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 9:42:59 GMT -8
Didnt you sell shares to buy options?? If so, you would have got pummeled much worse with options than just shares. Yes but I have 5 months to recover. With shares I would have been forced to sell at a loss today. I had no idea we would drop today. But given the weakness I felt prudent to lighten up on margined shares yesterday. We breached 500 and will get there and beyond in short order. Apple is up over 40% from the lows two years ago. One must be patient. Yep, and it's down 30% from the highs around 1 year ago...patience does not go together with options, so be careful.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 11, 2013 9:44:48 GMT -8
I just forwarded the link to a co-worker who has a Samsung Galaxy 3. His response very quickly was "I might be one of those too."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 9:49:36 GMT -8
One part of the iPhone dynamic is actually somewhat "simple". Are major markets trending prepaid or postpaid, and how much user-facing price parity is Apple able to get?
In markets where iPhone is much pricier it's naturally vulnerable to "more for your money" big-screened Android phones.
Oh, and spoiler alert for 2014: Bigger screens won't change the media narrative.
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Post by Nevyn on Sept 11, 2013 9:51:35 GMT -8
Largely overlooked in all of the pricing debate is the value and impact of the free apps that are now part of these devices. A pretty respectable productivity suite, movie, and photo editing that used to cost $40-$50. I think there are a lot of customers that are going to see this as an effective price cut, and that will have reason to become more committed to the Apple ecosystem. Clearly the market attaches no value to this, but I am betting a lot of customers do. Are those apps available to all iOS users or only new customers? Making iWork free is going to hurt Microsoft's mobile Office ambitions.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 9:54:22 GMT -8
One part of the iPhone dynamic is actually somewhat "simple". Are major markets trending prepaid or postpaid, and how much user-facing price parity is Apple able to get? In markets where iPhone is much pricier it's naturally vulnerable to "more for your money" big-screened Android phones. Oh, and spoiler alert for 2014: Bigger screens won't change the media narrative. Agree completely...when prices that users see are close, people are choosing the iPhone much more. So pardon my ignorance, but which way are markets tending...towards prepaid or postpaid?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 9:55:19 GMT -8
Largely overlooked in all of the pricing debate is the value and impact of the free apps that are now part of these devices. A pretty respectable productivity suite, movie, and photo editing that used to cost $40-$50. I think there are a lot of customers that are going to see this as an effective price cut, and that will have reason to become more committed to the Apple ecosystem. Clearly the market attaches no value to this, but I am betting a lot of customers do. Are those apps available to all iOS users or only new customers? Making iWork free is going to hurt Microsoft's mobile Office ambitions. I'm curious, cause it sounded to me like all new devices would get iWork for free...so is this only 5C/5S devices? What about 5's that upgrade to iOS7?
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