|
Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 11, 2013 9:58:45 GMT -8
Are those apps available to all iOS users or only new customers? Making iWork free is going to hurt Microsoft's mobile Office ambitions. I'm curious, cause it sounded to me like all new devices would get iWork for free...so is this only 5C/5S devices? What about 5's that upgrade to iOS7? TC said something along the lines of "all new iPhones" which I take to mean upgrading 5's are not included.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 10:00:00 GMT -8
What a cretinous, kneejerk reaction by Wall Street. Down 40 bucks for pulling the same move with the iPhone that Apple pulled with the iPod (in releasing the iPod mini), and which sent AAPL from sub-$20 to much, much higher. What a bunch of chumps. It's not the same situation. Apple didn't have problems with MP3 player market share nor did they have a competitor in that space making as much or more than they did. They had control over that market; here they do not. Also, an expensive iPod is much more affordable globally than an expensive iPhone.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 10:04:31 GMT -8
I'm curious, cause it sounded to me like all new devices would get iWork for free...so is this only 5C/5S devices? What about 5's that upgrade to iOS7? TC said something along the lines of "all new iPhones" which I take to mean upgrading 5's are not included. My understanding is that these come pre-loaded on the new phones, and that is the only way to get them for free. But I am not 100% certain.
|
|
|
Post by gvsmitty19 on Sept 11, 2013 10:06:07 GMT -8
I think some of the analysts are getting it right here (Raymond James, Morgan Stanley, S&P, etc).
All that's happened to the stock is the China Mobile premium has been let out - for now. Other than that, the announcements were exactly as expected - if anything most were not expecting the faster processor.
As many have said, smartphones are becoming more about software than form factor. No one looks at a blank TV screen or a blank computer monitor screen to determine value anymore. Universal flat screens did away with that. Sure, smaller, lighter is all good - but consumers are starting to see behind the glass, and that has always been Apple's strengths. iOS7 is getting rave reviews. Some have said it's as if they have a brand new phone after upgrading.
As for the emerging markets. Yes, a cheap iPhone would have been huge to the stock in the short-run. But this may be a very smart move for Apple in the long run. Two or three years from now, what would have happened to Apple if they went the cheap phone route? There would be low margins, high saturation, and very little growth prospects. In other words, Apple would look more like Nokia or Samsung. In doing so, the Apple brand would lose value, and it would be much more difficult to sell high end devices. The same thing that would happen if Ferrari came out with a $40k coupe.
All that said, Tim Cook needs to manage investor expectations much better. He knew what the expectations were (China Event, China Mobile, etc), and he let them get out of hand. Then again, perhaps Apple is taking advantage of the sale to purchase more cheap shares.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Sept 11, 2013 10:09:47 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so far
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 10:10:13 GMT -8
As a trader, a cheaper 5C that met expectations might have made me happy.
As a long term investor with a 3+ year horizon, it would suck considering the path it would put Apple on. As someone else said, they would end up looking like everyone else in the market - a full blown commodity.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 10:27:37 GMT -8
And boy does he get it. I really like his final line. For all those arguing that the Chinese cannot afford the 5C, I'd like to point out that of China Mobile's 740 Million subscriber base, only 137,000,00 are using CM's 3G network. The rest are using 2G. The iPhone 5C does not support 2G. Why is this important? Of those 137 Million 3G subscribers, about 35 Million are using iPhones purchased on the grey market (cost US$1,000 - US$1,200). Unsupported, jail broken iPhones have 25% share of CM's 3G subscriber base, and paid dearly for it. We must get over this image of the Chinese working for a $1 a day and a bowl of rice. Its insulting and flat wrong. Per capita income may be lower than western levels (by a lot), but in a Country of over 1 Billion people the number that make more than western per capita income just might exceed the total population of the United States. My guess is that CM has more iPhone subscribers (35 Million) than does ATT (most senior iPhone carrier), and its subscribers paid twice as much for them.Now, while I'm on this rant let's look at what China Mobile is doing to upgrade its creaking 2G network. CM is adding over 200,000 3G/4G base stations at a cost in excess of US$3 Billion. This after upgrading 20,000 base stations just last year. If the demand for faster network speeds weren't there, if China Mobile wasn't losing subscribers to iPhone carrying China Telecom and China Unicom it wouldn't be investing in its network to the degree it is. If China Mobile didn't think it could sell contractually required iPhones, it wouldn't invest in capital outlays to upgrade its network, or sign with Apple to carry/offer the iPhone at the listed prices on its network. The hubris exhibited by low cost advocates, that they, in their isolated, anecdotal, uninformed worlds, know better than the collective knowledge, experience of China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile and Apple management, is extraordinary, and displays more racist attitudes about the "poor" Chinese, than it does rational thought. Links: tinyurl.com/CM-3G-Subscriberstinyurl.com/CM-3G-Upgradetinyurl.com/iPhone-CM-Licensetinyurl.com/US-Smart-Phone-Market-Sharetinyurl.com/ATT-Smart-Phone-Subscriber-Bas
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 10:27:43 GMT -8
As a trader, a cheaper 5C that met expectations might have made me happy. As a long term investor with a 3+ year horizon, it would suck considering the path it would put Apple on. As someone else said, they would end up looking like everyone else in the market - a full blown commodity. From estimates, the 5C was thought to have costs of in the $250 range for 16GB. Of course we'll have a better idea in a week, but I really don't think Apple needs to keep iPhone margins for new devices at 60%...selling at 30 - 40% margins would still be great. No one here seems to complain about the Mini destroying margins.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 10:28:18 GMT -8
"iPhone 5C is $730 in China. Will you buy it?"
Hell, I'd say no.
People, uh, do realize that there exists a tiny little postpaid market in China, right?
Tiny, and yet from my quick reading that still translates to maybe 100M or so postpaid subscribers on China Mobile.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 10:32:38 GMT -8
Interesting. Did anyone know that China Telecom is now considerably bigger than Verizon? Different demographics, obviously, but still. 3G(+) subscribers as of June are 87M, about 50% of their 175M mobile subs. In 2010, they had 90M mobile subs, and just 12.3M 3G+ subs. Nah, China Mobile isn't feeling any heat from the littler guys at all. www.chinatelecom-h.com/en/announcements/announcements/a130821.pdf
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 10:36:45 GMT -8
I think some of the analysts are getting it right here (Raymond James, Morgan Stanley, S&P, etc). All that's happened to the stock is the China Mobile premium has been let out - for now. Other than that, the announcements were exactly as expected - if anything most were not expecting the faster processor. As many have said, smartphones are becoming more about software than form factor. No one looks at a blank TV screen or a blank computer monitor screen to determine value anymore. Universal flat screens did away with that. Sure, smaller, lighter is all good - but consumers are starting to see behind the glass, and that has always been Apple's strengths. iOS7 is getting rave reviews. Some have said it's as if they have a brand new phone after upgrading. As for the emerging markets. Yes, a cheap iPhone would have been huge to the stock in the short-run. But this may be a very smart move for Apple in the long run. Two or three years from now, what would have happened to Apple if they went the cheap phone route? There would be low margins, high saturation, and very little growth prospects. In other words, Apple would look more like Nokia or Samsung. In doing so, the Apple brand would lose value, and it would be much more difficult to sell high end devices. The same thing that would happen if Ferrari came out with a $40k coupe. All that said, Tim Cook needs to manage investor expectations much better. He knew what the expectations were (China Event, China Mobile, etc), and he let them get out of hand. Then again, perhaps Apple is taking advantage of the sale to purchase more cheap shares. Thank you gvsmitty19 Investors are showing a complete lack of understanding of what just happened. I attribute this to a lack of reading/comprehending of public documents, readily available on the internet (see my post above). Apple did not come out with a 2X4 upside the head announcement, ergo, in the minds of the uninformed, don't make me do any work investor, CM did not happen. But if they had read what has been released they would know that it has happened, and the "ANNOUNCEMENT" is just around the corner.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 10:39:03 GMT -8
"iPhone 5C is $730 in China. Will you buy it?" Hell, I'd say no. People, uh, do realize that there exists a tiny little postpaid market in China, right? Tiny, and yet from my quick reading that still translates to maybe 100M or so postpaid subscribers on China Mobile. Thank you Mav
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 10:39:50 GMT -8
I'm more convinced than ever that China Mobile is when, not if, and probably tied to whenever they get their act together and launch a half-decent TD-LTE network. Which, granted, probably isn't easy, but the date seems to be slipping almost as much as Apple's chances of survival.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 10:39:52 GMT -8
Interesting. Did anyone know that China Telecom is now considerably bigger than Verizon? Different demographics, obviously, but still. 3G(+) subscribers as of June are 87M, about 50% of their 175M mobile subs. In 2010, they had 90M mobile subs, and just 12.3M 3G+ subs. Nah, China Mobile isn't feeling any heat from the littler guys at all. www.chinatelecom-h.com/en/announcements/announcements/a130821.pdfThank you #2 Mav
|
|
|
Post by Plato on Sept 11, 2013 10:40:50 GMT -8
TC said something along the lines of "all new iPhones" which I take to mean upgrading 5's are not included. My understanding is that these come pre-loaded on the new phones, and that is the only way to get them for free. But I am not 100% certain. It comes free with all NEW iOS devices. Once you activate your device they apps will be downloaded automatically for free.
|
|
|
Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Sept 11, 2013 10:54:41 GMT -8
Red, mark, I wasn't complaining about the strategy, I was just explaining why I was posting at 4:30 in the morning.
If they are plasticizing the 5S next year, I expect the new set of technology they are working on now to be… well… If it's an even bigger step forward than the 5 to 5S (camera, 64-bit a7, m7, productivity suite, finger whatsit), the 6 will be a monster. I'm surprised they didn't just call the 5s a 6 this time.
Wow, it is painful to look at my portfolio right now. The last time we dropped this much this board was full of recriminations and sniping. It's great that this isn't one of *those* down days.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 10:59:09 GMT -8
I think some of the analysts are getting it right here (Raymond James, Morgan Stanley, S&P, etc). All that's happened to the stock is the China Mobile premium has been let out - for now. Other than that, the announcements were exactly as expected - if anything most were not expecting the faster processor. As many have said, smartphones are becoming more about software than form factor. No one looks at a blank TV screen or a blank computer monitor screen to determine value anymore. Universal flat screens did away with that. Sure, smaller, lighter is all good - but consumers are starting to see behind the glass, and that has always been Apple's strengths. iOS7 is getting rave reviews. Some have said it's as if they have a brand new phone after upgrading. As for the emerging markets. Yes, a cheap iPhone would have been huge to the stock in the short-run. But this may be a very smart move for Apple in the long run. Two or three years from now, what would have happened to Apple if they went the cheap phone route? There would be low margins, high saturation, and very little growth prospects. In other words, Apple would look more like Nokia or Samsung. In doing so, the Apple brand would lose value, and it would be much more difficult to sell high end devices. The same thing that would happen if Ferrari came out with a $40k coupe. All that said, Tim Cook needs to manage investor expectations much better. He knew what the expectations were (China Event, China Mobile, etc), and he let them get out of hand. Then again, perhaps Apple is taking advantage of the sale to purchase more cheap shares. Making the 5C more affordable is all about the long term - getting the software into the hands of more people and locking in recurring software revenue from music, apps etc. Keeping the 5C pricey and out of reach of the majority of people is good for near term margins but I don't see the long term benefit. I'm not talking about "cheap", either. But $700+ for China? It's going to struggle once we get past the initial hype.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 11:02:42 GMT -8
It's $550 in the US before taxes. So?
Everyone who only quotes MSRP (plus whatever taxes/import duties) deliberately ignores the fact that Apple plays in the postpaid space, and that there's more than one way to get a $700+ iPhone than paying $700+ up-front.
Yes, prepaid dominates many emerging markets. Yes, Apple's postpaid "bet" may fail. Yes, a short paragraph or ten or few hundred can never begin to scratch the surface of the SWOT analysis, competitive landscape, iPhone business model/Apple-to-carrier negotiations, etc. But saying "$700+ for China" is less of a complete picture than my bold sentence.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 11:03:37 GMT -8
Wow, now I'm a racist for advocating a lower cost iPhone. Can we please get this moron out of here?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 11:06:14 GMT -8
Heh, I thought racist comments were only reserved for US politics. ;D This board gets better all the time. C'mon, Gregg.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 11, 2013 11:15:30 GMT -8
Lets put the question of company strategy on pause for a second and just look at the stock.
Today's $30/5% drop is bad bad bad in the minds of all kinds of investors -- mom and pop and institutional. It shows that AAPL is still a dangerous, super volatile stock and the potential for chunks of your investment to disappear overnight is still there. Maybe we, as the long term faithful, don't care as much because we've been there before. But more diversified investors don't like that kind of "broken" action and will stay away until they feel the stock is more secure. Especially in a market when other stocks are acting well. This perception is just as important as any product news in the <6 month term.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 11:16:14 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 11:16:45 GMT -8
Better is in the eye of the beholder. I am sick of the sniping.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 11, 2013 11:18:16 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Seriously Lovey? Clearly, WS is not buying Apple's plan of re-branding a year-old phone in plastic as their flagship device. Hopefully, Apple's strategy will be proven correct with sales and margins, but to chalk up this tanking to the random ebbs and flows of TA?
|
|
|
Post by The Big Toe on Sept 11, 2013 11:27:31 GMT -8
TC said something along the lines of "all new iPhones" which I take to mean upgrading 5's are not included. My understanding is that these come pre-loaded on the new phones, and that is the only way to get them for free. But I am not 100% certain. In his presentation, he said all new ios devices can download the five apps, "and some additional ones" when setting up device. This includes iphone, ipad, and 5th gen ipod touch. I think that will be big vs android.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 11:31:56 GMT -8
Ben Thompson's article is excellent. He presents Apple's case well while outlining the risks they are taking by pursuing this strategy. Ultimately it shows there is a debate to be had and both sides have valid points. It's funny how on this board only one side is dismissive of the other (and downright offensive too).
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Sept 11, 2013 11:35:33 GMT -8
Looking forward to durability/drop testing of the 5C. I'm inclined to think that it may handle more drops than a 4/4s, 5/5s before an owner heads to the store for a warranty claim.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 11:39:44 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Seriously Lovey? Clearly, WS is not buying Apple's plan of re-branding a year-old phone in plastic as their flagship device. Hopefully, Apple's strategy will be proven correct with sales and margins, but to chalk up this tanking to the random ebbs and flows of TA? I suspect there might be some Elliott Wave baked into that thinking, perhaps subconsciously.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 11:40:36 GMT -8
Mav, good article. I think Apple has the US market dominated, especially now with the 5C, 5S with a tentpole feature that nobody else has (yet) and iTunes Radio.
I care much less about market share than I do revenue and earnings growth. If major international growth markets can show steady revenue and earnings growth, I would fully endorse this move. I guess it'll take time to see it pan out.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 11:46:30 GMT -8
Oh dear God. I "saw this coming".
From last night's post: "- Some bizarre ��right shoulder�� forming to complete a sorta ��head and shoulders�� (circled area)?"
The measured move, or is it single-day cascade...30-ish points. Well, there's a bearish reference point, and confluence with the 38.2% Fib level. In just one day. Yeah. Wow.
If there IS a bright side - and I don't know - that high-460s gap isn't a "problem" anymore.
|
|