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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 11, 2013 11:52:54 GMT -8
The last time we had a gap down like this, it was after Jan earnings. That presaged 8 months of down trading. As I said on Monday night, if the iPhone 5c is priced at $499 or above (as gruber was guessing), we have stock doldrums ahead. I wouldn't be surprised to see 400 again in the next few months. Make sure your roller coaster grab bar is secure.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 11:53:34 GMT -8
FWIW, this market does not feel to me like it is being driven by sophisticated technical traders, algorithms, or even fundamental investors. It feels like it is being driven by amateurs. Look at the reaction to Icahn. His share was way to small to have any real influence and the stock jumps 22 points. And today, even though we have hard evidence from the issued approvals that CM will happen, there is a huge sell off because it was not announced when the herd expected it. I am not complaining, mind you. On the contrary, i think it is time to recognize this market for what it is and start trusting in the stupidity of the masses. It may be true that institutions own 65% of the stock, but then anyone with over 1000 shares is considered an institution. There are 900 million shares outstanding and 20 million can change the price by 30 points up or down. Do you think there are 20 million unsophisticated investors out there that don't think things through? I do. i am not going to abandon my position with the mortgage and the covered calls, but i am going to start looking hard at how to test and exploit these assumptions BRILLIANT !
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 11:54:14 GMT -8
10/10 Post(s) of the day.
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Post by macglenn on Sept 11, 2013 11:54:15 GMT -8
Big volume today shows strong support.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 11, 2013 11:54:59 GMT -8
We must get over this image of the Chinese working for a $1 a day and a bowl of rice. If Foxconn is giving workers a bowl of rice, color me pissed. That will kill margins. #Robots
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 12:01:00 GMT -8
cnbc interview with carl icahn coming up 'in a few minutes'.
maybe cnbc will get him to drop some bomb after screwing up putting munster on yesterday telling people china mobile was 99% for today.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 12:02:12 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so far Truly bogus survey. What were the demographics of the sample? Sample demographics are hugely important. Still, 2.6% of CM's 3G subscriber base means 3.5 Million respondents are considering buying the 5C.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 11, 2013 12:05:11 GMT -8
I'm more convinced than ever that China Mobile is when, not if, and probably tied to whenever they get their act together and launch a half-decent TD-LTE network. Which, granted, probably isn't easy, but the date seems to be slipping almost as much as Apple's chances of survival. Interesting take. Apple is holding up the deal, not CM.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 12:06:13 GMT -8
Big volume today shows strong support. It also shows lots of sellers since we're down 5%
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 12:08:30 GMT -8
Who's the Ray Charles squirrel there? Looking quite dapper with that lucky find of his.
Assuming WAGs are still allowed around here, it's probably some complicated mess with one big factor being China Mobile still needs a TD-LTE network to show off a TD-LTE phone. Can't have Tim Cook over for a huge announcement with nothing to show for it, at least not until it's simply matter of flipping the "TD-LTE" switch on.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 11, 2013 12:16:32 GMT -8
"ICAHN bought quite a bit in 465-470 levels"
edit: today
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 12:17:47 GMT -8
I'm more convinced than ever that China Mobile is when, not if, and probably tied to whenever they get their act together and launch a half-decent TD-LTE network. Which, granted, probably isn't easy, but the date seems to be slipping almost as much as Apple's chances of survival. I've argued that CM will happen when Apple's production capacity can handle the surge. That time is not now, nor will it be until Apple satisfies December quarter demand. That always happens in January, ergo I'm looking for an early January announcement, with late January launch. But this does not mean that CM subscribers will necessarily wait that long to get the new iPhones. The 35 Million iPhones currently on CM's network are jail broken versions meant to operate on Verizon's CDMA network. They paid upwards of US1,200 on the grey market for them, and are not getting the benefit of carrier feature support. I would not be surprised at all, to learn that many (5%?) of these jail broke hiPhones aren't replaced by the 5C and/or 5S during the December quarter. Think ~2 Million units without an official announcement.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 12:18:29 GMT -8
Carl Icahn just announced on CNBC he bought on the F'n Dip!
Really talking up Apple.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 12:20:32 GMT -8
It's $550 in the US before taxes. So? Everyone who only quotes MSRP (plus whatever taxes/import duties) deliberately ignores the fact that Apple plays in the postpaid space, and that there's more than one way to get a $700+ iPhone than paying $700+ up-front. Yes, prepaid dominates many emerging markets. Yes, Apple's postpaid "bet" may fail. Yes, a short paragraph or ten or few hundred can never begin to scratch the surface of the SWOT analysis, competitive landscape, iPhone business model/Apple-to-carrier negotiations, etc. But saying "$700+ for China" is less of a complete picture than my bold sentence. Thank you #3 Mav
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 12:21:16 GMT -8
Icahn (on what Apple should do with iPhone pricing): "I don't tell Apple how to run its business, it does a great job, Tim Cook doing a great job, I'm only interested in talking with them about how they run their finances."
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stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Sept 11, 2013 12:22:57 GMT -8
This was not managed well. I don't think it's up to aapl to telegraph exactly what it is doing but there's a few things that are clear post jobs. One being that there are no more surprises. From the managing of realistic eps guides to lack of whiz bang one more thing...that was all Steve. It doesn't exist anymore. TC is not doing a bad job. But he's obviously not magnetic and obviously not a visionary. Not that anyone should expect him to be but the Steve effect on the stock is gone. His ability to bend reality (antenna gate?) does not exist. If you're trading on that expectation you need to reframe (or trade TSLA). Which is to say this is the same company while simultaneously NOT the same trading vehicle that it was au contraire mon ami, I think the next month or so will prove that it was INDEED managed well. Remember folks, Apple still isn't finished it's stock buy backs. That's all that's important to them (right now) or else they wouldn't have borrowed $50B in the first place. This whole thing smacks of an another Apple Corp. Officer (oppourtunity) to lower stock price for more buybacks (the deliberate ommision of CM announcement). Savin' it for (or to induce) the rebound. I know I sound like a broken record, but the tone of the press is so (typically) idiotic that it reaks of suspicion. Sit tight everybody, and buy if ya got the cash flow.
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stub
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Post by stub on Sept 11, 2013 12:35:10 GMT -8
this just in...
somebody just bought 42, 680 shares at $467.83 (at 4:30 pm Eastern Time)
approximatley $20 million worth.
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 11, 2013 12:37:22 GMT -8
Carl Icahn just announced on CNBC he bought on the F'n Dip! Really talking up Apple. I bought a few hundred shares in the 468-470 range this morning. Maybe I should tweet that. Might help the stock.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 12:41:30 GMT -8
Carl Icahn just announced on CNBC he bought on the F'n Dip! Really talking up Apple. Oh great. AAPL up a whole buck AH. OTOH, Apple itself gets to buy the dip. So there's that. Remind me the next time the Tim Cook Sale is on (iPad event) (/sarcasm) (/I think the bar is actually just a touch lower on that one)
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 11, 2013 12:42:05 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so farwealth disparity is huge in china so i'm not surprised 90% of them would say it's too expensive - it's expected. a cheaper iphone in my opinion isn't going to do much in china - you either have the money to buy a really expensive phone or you don't (and can't come anywhere close to being able to)
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stub
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Post by stub on Sept 11, 2013 12:46:03 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so farwealth disparity is huge in china so i'm not surprised 90% of them would say it's too expensive - it's expected. a cheaper iphone in my opinion isn't going to do much in china - you either have the money to buy a really expensive phone or you don't (and can't come anywhere close to being able to) How can these (so called) Journalists say it's a Dud, so far. They're basing this on a survey? PLEASE. The thing HASN'T EVEN GONE ON SALE YET!!! THAT'S what I talkin' about.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 12:55:39 GMT -8
stub, they borrowed $17B so far IIRC.
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stub
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Post by stub on Sept 11, 2013 12:59:08 GMT -8
stub, they borrowed $17B so far IIRC. OK sorry, I fudged on the numbers a bit. But still, borrowing $17B and $33B of their own cash is still plenty.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 13:02:26 GMT -8
I'm more convinced than ever that China Mobile is when, not if, and probably tied to whenever they get their act together and launch a half-decent TD-LTE network. Which, granted, probably isn't easy, but the date seems to be slipping almost as much as Apple's chances of survival. Mav, earlier this year CM upgraded 20,000 base stations to 4G/LTE. Just last month CM awarded >US$3.2 Billion to a consortium of firms for "with the carrier planning to build 200,000 base stations this year". I'm guessing (pretty reasonable) that "this year" means fiscal vs calendar. I see this year's efforts as a test of supplier capabilities/equipment. The 2014 upgrade represents a major push, to be followed by another expansion of 4G/LTE base stations in F2015, and so on. That said, Apple doesn't need to wait for the upgrades, when CM is currently serving 137 Million 3G subscribers. IMO, the timing of a CM launch is more realistically tied to Apple's production capacity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 13:07:31 GMT -8
Heh, I thought racist comments were only reserved for US politics. ;D This board gets better all the time. C'mon, Gregg. Racism isn't limited to feelings of superiority based on color of skin, etc, etc. It can also be racist to assume inferior financial means based on Country or region. I think a lot of that goes on here, and like any racist view, they are based on ignorance.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 13:14:23 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so far wealth disparity is huge in china so i'm not surprised 90% of them would say it's too expensive - it's expected. a cheaper iphone in my opinion isn't going to do much in china - you either have the money to buy a really expensive phone or you don't (and can't come anywhere close to being able to) YAY !!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 13:15:18 GMT -8
I will agree to disagree on all of this. In my view the tail is wagging the dog with any suggestion that what we are seeing today is not almost entirely driven by yesterday's event. Technicals have nothing to do with it. The "world" has decided that Apple has screwed up and the stock is paying the price for it. We can absolutely agree to disagree. That said, I think some of what we're saying is the same thing. IMHO, sentiment is a pendulum. Usually when there's a big vertical move well into a run, that tends to be the end of the move. People start getting antsy about protecting profits or cutting losses. As we go sideways, chopping around, doubts set in for both sides. Are we going up or down? Am I on the right side or the wrong side? Then, a catalyst comes along. It could be good or bad. It always makes more sense when good news makes the stock go up and bad news makes the stock go down, but I think it's more a case of where are we in the arc of the pendulum, and at the tail end, it's going to swing the other way no matter what.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 11, 2013 13:20:41 GMT -8
I just read an article titled, "For Some Apple Bulls, Faith Strengthens". I was pleased to read the following 4 comments at the bottom of the article: =========================== #1 - 2:17 pm September 11, 2013 Seagull wrote: I’d be surprised if Apple’s marketing department didn’t know the optimum price for their products! I also think the fingerprint scanner and movement sensor on the 5S set a pretty high standard. Not much has been said about the movement sensor but it goes way beyond what GPS alone can do. =========================== #2 - 2:02 pm September 11, 2013 Ed Carney wrote: This is laughable how some want Apple to sell dirt cheap products to match Samsung and cheapo China Brands. Nobody is telling BMW to sell a car cheap as Hyundai are they? Apple is the most successful business for a reason. Because they don’t compete on price and volume sell and end up with no proifit! =========================== #3 - 2:00 pm September 11, 2013 Anonymous wrote: Iphone 5C will be sold for $100 less next year when 4s may be dropped from the line up. Apple is correct in introducing 5C as a premium phone with options. Think about it, it has better configurations that the current iphone 5, there is no reason for it to sell for less. It is the Analysts who wanted a cheaper phone, not Apple. =========================== #4 - 1:36 pm September 11, 2013 Joe wrote: When people thought the iPhone 5C was going to be priced (unsubsidized) around $350, they fretted about how it would erode Apple’s margins and cannibalize sales of the more expensive 5S. Now that the unsubsidized prices is confirmed as being much higher, people complain that it is too expensive and will not sell. So in that sense, Cook and Apple really can’t win in the eyes of many.
More importantly, the same was said of the iPad Mini. When people expected it be priced at $250, they said it would kill margins and cannibalize the iPad. When the actual price of $330 was announced, people changed their tune and said it was too expensive and nobody would buy it when they could buy a Kindle Fire for $200.
Same as they are saying now with the 5C.
But that is not the end of the story. Of course, the iPad Mini went on to be a huge seller. The same thing will also happen with the iPhone 5C. ===========================
I hope these 4 individuals will find their way to this forum. I like the way they think.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 13:27:22 GMT -8
Surely it's the same guy saying four different thoughts. (/sarcasm)
All the same, those 1-4 peeps seem pretty reasonable.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 13:42:11 GMT -8
Surely it's the same guy saying four different thoughts. (/sarcasm) All the same, those 1-4 peeps seem pretty reasonable. I concur. Wasn't Seagull a poster on the original AFB?
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