Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 11:18:05 GMT -8
Yep, that preorder number is 100% marketing. Which is why Mercel, myself and others are wondering if there were enough 24-hour sales to report.
Nothing's stopping Apple from changing metrics of course. 3-4M preorders in a weekend = ALSO quite good, for example, since many people want the 5S and there would still be a week or so of preorders then 3-ish days of sales to go.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2013 11:37:06 GMT -8
My only concern, and it is foolish and unscientific and anglocentric, is that I know six people who will be buying a 5s within two weeks. I don't know anyone who has or will be buying a 5c.
Means nothing, but it tugs at me a bit....
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2013 11:53:57 GMT -8
My only concern, and it is foolish and unscientific and anglocentric, is that I know six people who will be buying a 5s within two weeks. I don't know anyone who has or will be buying a 5c. Means nothing, but it tugs at me a bit.... Yeah, but do you know anyone under 80?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2013 12:02:52 GMT -8
My only concern, and it is foolish and unscientific and anglocentric, is that I know six people who will be buying a 5s within two weeks. I don't know anyone who has or will be buying a 5c. Means nothing, but it tugs at me a bit.... Yeah, but do you know anyone under 80? Let's see...I know you, and Mercel and Mav.......so, no.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 12:05:47 GMT -8
In real life, man. ;D I'm a probable 5S buyer in October. Sorry I won't be helping the fiscal Q4 numbers, but I'll be contributing to the all-important holiday quarter. What I'm still trying to figure out is whether I need 32GB or 64GB. I'd be surprised if a bunch of long-time iPhone owners aren't having trouble with 16GB.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 12:10:46 GMT -8
Doing a very unscientific allocation of unit sales.
iPhone 5S mid range equivalent 41% iPhone 5C mid range equivalent 41% iPhone 4S 8%
I'm getting a December quarter ASP of $650 (more or less).
I'd be interested in seeing other estimates (and how you arrived at them).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 12:48:05 GMT -8
Doing a very unscientific allocation of unit sales. iPhone 5S mid range equivalent 41% iPhone 5C mid range equivalent 41% iPhone 4S 8% I'm getting a December quarter ASP of $650 (more or less). I'd be interested in seeing other estimates (and how you arrived at them). Mmmm, is Apple selling 10% of something else?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 13:20:09 GMT -8
ASP has been in YOY decline (current iTunes/software accounting) for 3 consecutive quarters. The trend could be broken but I won't be terribly concerned if it isn't.
The 32GB iPhone 5C is "helpful" in that regard (there's never been a $649 year-old iPhone on Apple's roster), and China Mobile of course is the mother of all X factors, just because we have no idea how intense initial demand will be when (not if) it becomes an official iPhone carrier.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2013 13:25:12 GMT -8
Here's a question for you nerds. I'm on T-Mobile right now, with my out-of-contract 4. I'm gonna get a 5S. I was thinking of going into the Apple Store and trading in my 4 for the credit against the new phone, as PED's article discusses (nice little added revenue stream, BTW). But I notice the Apple Store only offers paid-in-full unlocked versions for T-Mobile. WTF? To get a contract-subsidized phone, I guess you have to go into an actual T-Mobile store? And I'll have to sell the 4 separately, I guess... #hassle And how much storage do you guys typically get on your phones? I have a 16GB 4, and I am at 93% capacity ATM, so I'd likely go to at least 32 with the 5S. I'm wondering if the 64GB is so expensive that it would actually hurt resale value (relative to ASP)? Funny the Apple Store kid who sold me the 4 talked me out oif the 32GB because he assumed I was an 80-yr-old Luddite.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 13:35:26 GMT -8
Have 32, thinking about 64, but also looking into whether I can trim enough apps 'n data to have 32GB work one more year. (Immediate problem: Infinity Blade III.)
You should thank the Apple Store kid. You'd never get that 16GB back in resale value. PowerON (Apple's trade-in partner online, they actually give pretty fair prices in the form of Apple gift cards) only gives an extra friggin' $5 for a 32GB 4S vs. a 16GB.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 14, 2013 13:42:18 GMT -8
Just returned from the AT&t and Verizon stores near where I dock the Enterprise.
Yesterday the AT&T store had 6 presales ( reservations) for the 5c...the Verizon store had 4. They don't read anything into this because nobody has touched the thing yet and they don't know how to upsell it.
Both stores are planning for a massive Friday. All staff on deck, training in iOS7 underway. Their big question and only fear: how much inventory do they get? They don't know at this point. It worries them a great deal cause from the number of inquiries they know the crowds will show. The AT&T manager ( a guy I know pretty well) said they have talked about talking 5s buyers down to the 5c on the assumption they will get lots of those...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 13:50:02 GMT -8
Whoever made that iOS 6 v 7 gif with transforming Forstall-to-Ive-and-back plus the icons? Kudos.
Definitely a little weird to watch though. Which is why I'm not linking to it. ;D
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Post by macziggy on Sept 14, 2013 14:16:28 GMT -8
Here's a question for you nerds. I'm on T-Mobile right now, with my out-of-contract 4. I'm gonna get a 5S. I was thinking of going into the Apple Store and trading in my 4 for the credit against the new phone, as PED's article discusses (nice little added revenue stream, BTW). But I notice the Apple Store only offers paid-in-full unlocked versions for T-Mobile. WTF? To get a contract-subsidized phone, I guess you have to go into an actual T-Mobile store? And I'll have to sell the 4 separately, I guess... #hassle And how much storage do you guys typically get on your phones? I have a 16GB 4, and I am at 93% capacity ATM, so I'd likely go to at least 32 with the 5S. I'm wondering if the 64GB is so expensive that it would actually hurt resale value (relative to ASP)? Funny the Apple Store kid who sold me the 4 talked me out oif the 32GB because he assumed I was an 80-yr-old Luddite. Found this on the Sprint website--the price for iPhone 5s is $99/contract and for the iPhone 5C for $0/contract. First time I've prices that low. And, the monthly fee is $70/month (lowest) and the only other thing is tax and activation fee ($35). Am I missing something? I could only checkout by buying the 5C which is $0/contract. Here's what that looks like. Just $55 tax (California). Hmmm
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 14:19:09 GMT -8
Just returned from the AT&t and Verizon stores near where I dock the Enterprise. Yesterday the AT&T store had 6 presales ( reservations) for the 5c...the Verizon store had 4. They don't read anything into this because nobody has touched the thing yet and they don't know how to upsell it. Both stores are planning for a massive Friday. All staff on deck, training in iOS7 underway. Their big question and only fear: how much inventory do they get? They don't know at this point. It worries them a great deal cause from the number of inquiries they know the crowds will show. The AT&T manager ( a guy I know pretty well) said they have talked about talking 5s buyers down to the 5c on the assumption they will get lots of those... They'll get their inventory info soon enough. At the last minute? Talking down to customers. That's why I'll order my iPhones from Apple directly, whenever the heck possible.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 14:21:56 GMT -8
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Post by macziggy on Sept 14, 2013 14:25:47 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 14, 2013 14:52:35 GMT -8
Let me tell you what is really amazing...is anyone on this Board watching the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game? Very exciting....Damn I miss mbeauch...wish he would pop in now and then.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 14:56:31 GMT -8
[quote author=jdsocal board=weekendupdates thread=534 post=52202 time=1379193912And how much storage do you guys typically get on your phones? I have a 16GB 4, and I am at 93% capacity ATM, so I'd likely go to at least 32 with the 5S. I'm wondering if the 64GB is so expensive that it would actually hurt resale value (relative to ASP)? Funny the Apple Store kid who sold me the 4 talked me out oif the 32GB because he assumed I was an 80-yr-old Luddite. [/quote] I bought the 32, but am using just under half. I'll probably get the 32 again because I'm so close (and it would appeal to more on resale. I still have a year to go on contract. I plan on buying a no contract 5S and replacing my 5. When contract expires will have a heart to heart with AT&T (I can shop service for the 5S anywhere when contract expires).
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Post by mrentropy on Sept 14, 2013 15:00:57 GMT -8
Let me tell you what is really amazing...is anyone on this Board watching the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game? Very exciting....Damn I miss mbeauch...wish he would pop in now and then. I am. Living up to its billing. Our turnovers are looming large right now...
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 15:02:55 GMT -8
Then we have DoCoMo with another 60,000,000 3G subscribers. A recent survey showed that 66% of subscribers leaving DoCoMo did so to get the iPhone. I want to warn everyone that while this is on the whole a positive data point, it should not be misconstrued as assuming that 66% of current DoCoMo subscribers want the iPhone. I interpret it as the people who leave want an iPhone, but the people who stay are happy enough to have stayed this long without an iPhone, and may be more loyal to the Japanese brands on offer. Of course, DoCoMo has been steadily losing customers so is there is iPhone demand but there would also be a healthy core who do not want one. Now that two new iPhones will be available without the hassle of switching carriers, there will no doubt be many iPhones sold on DoCoMo. I'd be pleased with the 40% number - won't rule out higher, but won't expect it either. You interpreted my post correctly. I did not say 66% would buy, I said 66% of those that left bought iPhone. At our level of intel we can only speculate. DoCoMo on the other hand knows, and they've apparently promised 40% of smart phones sales to iPhone, and dumped Samsung.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 14, 2013 16:22:44 GMT -8
Let me tell you what is really amazing...is anyone on this Board watching the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game? Very exciting....Damn I miss mbeauch...wish he would pop in now and then. Check out UCF-State Penn. RU has to play UCF. Their QB is very talented.
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Post by rickag on Sept 14, 2013 16:48:04 GMT -8
Let me tell you what is really amazing...is anyone on this Board watching the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game? Very exciting....Damn I miss mbeauch...wish he would pop in now and then. I am. Living up to its billing. Our turnovers are looming large right now... Turnovers were too much to overcome Defense needs to improve. Gig'em
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 14, 2013 17:03:28 GMT -8
Let me tell you what is really amazing...is anyone on this Board watching the Alabama vs. Texas A&M game? Very exciting....Damn I miss mbeauch...wish he would pop in now and then. Check out UCF-State Penn. RU has to play UCF. Their QB is very talented. I get 1000 channels but somehow NOT the one the UCF-Penn game is on. Oh well -- will have to settle flipping back and forth to watch Notre Dame vs. Purdue and Ohio at Calif.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2013 17:32:07 GMT -8
Price wars, get your price wars here....5s free on contract in Japan.....boom. appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/14/apples-iphone-sparks-japanese-carrier-battle-iphone-5s-goes-free-on-contractWith the announcement that Japan's largest cellular provider NTT DoCoMo would start sales of Apple's iPhone for the first time, the country's three major carriers now have access to the device. In what looks to be a price war to attract new customers, all three telecoms — DoCoMo, SoftBank and KDDI — are offering the iPhone 5s with discounts that effectively make the phone free on contract. As noted by CNET, the special pricing only applies to the 16GB version of the handset. As with any subsidized device, limitations apply to early upgraders, though the up front fee is still less than what customers in the U.S. have to pay. Interestingly, only KDDI is offering a free version of the cheaper iPhone 5c with a new contract activation or transfer from another carrier. ----------- The comments note that the 16 gig version of the flagship phone was available for free on the other two carriers in the past, but with all three pushing this... Question: with a screaming deal like this being pushed, could there be significant supply constraints? This is kind of ridiculous. Why would a "normal" smartphone buyer that doesn't have a strong attachment to a brand/mobile OS even think about getting a different smartphone? Looks like Apple's continuing to "solve" its "Japan problem", and they have to like that the carriers are helping them out basically unbidden.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2013 17:41:00 GMT -8
If we are going off topic into sports, I feel it is my duty to point out to everyone that Team New Zealand is dominating Team Oracle, and is likely to once again take possession of the oldest trophy in sporting history.
Kia Kaha!
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Post by pauls on Sept 14, 2013 17:45:39 GMT -8
If we are going off topic into sports, I feel it is my duty to point out to everyone that Team New Zealand is dominating Team Oracle, and is likely to once again take possession of the oldest trophy in sporting history. Kia Kaha! Umm, that was not the story today! Amazing first race! It's not over yet (although yes, USA has a very steep wave to crest). Team New Zealand were about 2 degrees from losing everything, for a second there.
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Post by kloot on Sept 14, 2013 19:30:00 GMT -8
Wow, maybe Apple DID successfully double-down on secrecy. You might find this worthwhile reading. The ultimate Screw U to SamsungBravo to Daniel Eran Dilger! great link, thanks. one of the most enjoyable Apple-related articles I've read in the last 2 years. plus he said Samsung "pooped out SKUs", LOL.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2013 19:32:20 GMT -8
If we are going off topic into sports, I feel it is my duty to point out to everyone that Team New Zealand is dominating Team Oracle, and is likely to once again take possession of the oldest trophy in sporting history. Sorry Burgy, but I'm going to have to go with the human head for that honor. #Mayans
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 14, 2013 19:39:41 GMT -8
Happy one year anniversary of iPads forum!!! I miss you guys, despite most of you are likely insane. AAPL closing price 9/13/2012 $682.98 You are likewise missed. Hear hear ...
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Post by robertspangey on Sept 14, 2013 20:34:59 GMT -8
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