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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 9:03:31 GMT -8
Acceptance of WS is complicity IMO. You can call it a conspiracy, but it's more about an inefficient market where valuation is a spinning wheel. If you accept AAPL's valuation, you have to accept AMZN's and MSFT's, which is far different than saying you'd invest in them.
Like I said, there's ZERO discipline with the markets attempting to put honest #s to a company's valuation -- it's more about gambling with the short term "news" BS disseminated by no-nothing analysts (and yes, CNBC, Misek, etc. are part of WS).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 9:05:21 GMT -8
Long range thinking these days means holding the stock overnight Welcome to the blackjack table ... today's hand sucks ... wanna hit ? Not without a good looking waitress offering me a free drink (that rules out Caesar's Palace BTW).
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Post by redinaustin on Sept 16, 2013 9:15:22 GMT -8
The reality is that Apple is a long term company and WS plays a short term game.
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Post by applemuncher on Sept 16, 2013 9:36:41 GMT -8
It is common for people who don't understand how the market works to blame options, market manipulation, and conspiracy.
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Post by redinaustin on Sept 16, 2013 9:42:17 GMT -8
It is common for people who don't understand how the market works to blame options, market manipulation, and conspiracy. Those people understand, they just forget to whose benefit the market is rigged. Why do options exist?
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Post by pauls on Sept 16, 2013 9:49:21 GMT -8
I think the current swoon is all about 5c perceptions. It's clear that Apple has some novel ways to move them, but there is fear that the 5c/5s price differential is too small for early sales to impress a thoroughly jaded WS.
I suspect one reason for no 5s preorders is to prop up 5c numbers as high as possible.
It may turn out fine when and if we get early numbers, but the sell off this morning makes one wonder if someone knows otherwise.
I'll be glad to be wrong. But I think Joe smartphone buyer may be more savvy than many give credit--
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 10:09:38 GMT -8
It is common for people who don't understand how the market works to blame options, market manipulation, and conspiracy. Yeah, right. Ok genius, let's put you in charge. It's pretty clear that options are influencing the price and induce selling pressure when calls outnumber puts. Market manipulation? Do you live under a rock (or just big chart blanket). Here you go -- where HAVE you been? www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOS8QgAQO-k
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2013 10:39:04 GMT -8
Dropping from 510 to 450 in five trading days has nothing to do with options manipulation or Wall Street conspiracies.
It has everything to do with fear uncertainty and doubt that investors and traders have about Apple's products and pricing. Their earnings contracted in the last year, is that going to keep happening?
Also, those who follow technicals see this chart and there's no question that its negative for the stock. Broken down through all averages, very little support in sight, etc
The sellers want to make money just as much as we longs do. Betting apple will go down has been a winning trade for the last year and they're banking that that trade is continuing. Part of this is fundamental (decreasing eps) some of it is FUD, some of it is technical. But you can't deny that they have been more right than we have for the last year. S&P up 20% and apple down 35%. That is some serious underperformance, and anyone holding long calls like me should get our heads checked for continuing to believe in hope.
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Post by cbingle on Sept 16, 2013 10:47:26 GMT -8
Wonder how Carl feels right now? Also, what can he and Tim actually talk about at dinner that would not constitute insider trading?
Yeah, right, stock buyback...blah, blah, blah, but what can Tim actually say to him that is not public knowledge?
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2013 10:49:37 GMT -8
If Carl has a longer term perspective, he isn't panicking and is just buying more. He said the company was undervalued last week and nothing has changed, except for it being more undervalued.
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Post by macwire on Sept 16, 2013 10:57:53 GMT -8
FUCKING SUCKS.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 11:03:51 GMT -8
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Post by Plato on Sept 16, 2013 11:04:55 GMT -8
Broke the 100 MA. No support in sight. Having said that, it looks very oversold on the daily. Ready for a bounce, IMHO.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 16, 2013 11:09:43 GMT -8
Seriously? The point of the article is not that the "marketing decision" to not announce pre-orders caused the move down. It's that the amount of 5c sales was not enough to deserve an announcement. That is a potential year-long problem, not a one-week problem. Whether it's an accurate worry or not is up for debate, but that is the worry that's caused this 10+% drop since the product/pricing announcement. As many have pointed out, there have also not been stockouts of the iphone 5c preorders. That's a first, in my memory. Easier to produce, so lots of supply? Or not that exciting/too expensive, so lack of demand? There is no evidence to prove either the bull or bear argument on that all-important fundamental question right now. So fear reigns.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 11:09:46 GMT -8
I'm no technician, but it looks like we've crashed through all moving averages and trend lines. Mav knew where to sell - he told me to sell at 505 on iPhone release day. "If you don't like it, sell." Looks like everyone in the world took his advice except for the members of this board The only ones that didn't like the report have zero reading comprehension skills. I just extrapolated China Unicom's stated 5C pre-order numbers over China Telecom and China Mobile 3G subscriber bases, and came up with 300,000 pre-orders. Some assumptions: 5C Interest WorldwideIf worldwide interest in the 5C is triple the interest expressed in China, then total interest is about 900,000 units 5S vs 5C InterestThe majority of DoCoMo's smartphone subscribers are 4G (>50%). The iPhone 5 did not adequately address the EU's 4G networks. Preference for the 5S seems to be running 4 or 5:1 over the 5C in the US (conversations with ATT, Verizon and Apple Store employees. At 4:1 5S interest 9if it were available for pre-order would be about 3.6 million units. Combined, 5C and 5S pre-order/interest is about 4.5 million units. This is not something I would invest on, but at the same time, tech writers could have done the same thing to put China Unicom's results into some kind of perspective, for sure CNBC should have done an analysis like this. Even if the margin of error in my extrapolation is 20% (I don't think it is) 3.6 million worldwide pre-order/interest is nearly double last year's pre-order total. Anybody that sold because of today's China Unicom report is a fucking idiot, and should limit their investing to low yield mutual funds.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 16, 2013 11:17:29 GMT -8
I don't think the 5s is really that constrained. Why would they allow for presales-pre-orders in China starting on Wed??
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 11:20:19 GMT -8
Seriously? The point of the article is not that the "marketing decision" to not announce pre-orders caused the move down. It's that the amount of 5c sales was not enough to deserve an announcement. That is a potential year-long problem, not a one-week problem. Whether it's an accurate worry or not is up for debate, but that is the worry that's caused this 10+% drop since the product/pricing announcement. As many have pointed out, there have also not been stockouts of the iphone 5c preorders. That's a first, in my memory. Easier to produce, so lots of supply? Or not that exciting/too expensive, so lack of demand? There is no evidence to prove either the bull or bear argument on that all-important fundamental question right now. So fear reigns. I edited my comment before you finished your reply. But yes, it was a marketing decision to allow preorders of the 5c only and not the 5s. Only WS would attempt to compare a 5c pre order # with a 5s. NO ONE with a brain expects sell outs of the 5c as the 5s. Which proves my whole point: WS is using the "news" to hit AAPL. Maybe I'm giving WS too much credit here, but the fact is, if Apple had allowed 5s pre orders the stock would be up $16 instead of being down. That is a one-week marketing decision.
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Post by jmolloy on Sept 16, 2013 11:20:27 GMT -8
Seriously? The point of the article is not that the "marketing decision" to not announce pre-orders caused the move down. I am a bear of little brain but I seem to remember that last year Apple didn't announce pre-order numbers until the end of the day, not first thing.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 16, 2013 11:23:42 GMT -8
its ridiculous for anyone to want 5C presale numbers. this strategy needs to be treated as the equivalent of when the 4S came out and the 4 went from $199 to $99. The 5C is a colorful 5 and a bit more, but definitely nothing less. It is a repurposed iphone 5, but WS is treating it like the only new phone.
this is so dumb.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 11:25:50 GMT -8
Seriously? The point of the article is not that the "marketing decision" to not announce pre-orders caused the move down. I am a bear of little brain but I seem to remember that last year Apple didn't announce pre-order numbers until the end of the day, not first thing. My recall is they announced in the morning a year ago. I didn't buy any AAPL on Friday for the reason I expected it to sell off on the lack of any announcement today. But I didn't imagine $16 worth of disappointment.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 11:26:52 GMT -8
its ridiculous for anyone to want 5C presale numbers. this strategy needs to be treated as the equivalent of when the 4S came out and the 4 went from $199 to $99. The 5C is a colorful 5 and a bit more, but definitely nothing less. It is a repurposed iphone 5, but WS is treating it like the only new phone. this is so dumb. EXACTLY.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 11:27:28 GMT -8
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Post by terps530 on Sept 16, 2013 11:29:22 GMT -8
the comparison isn't valid because the 5C isn't the new phone.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 16, 2013 11:31:36 GMT -8
I swear, it's almost like Apple does everything in it's power to make it easy for Wall Street to assume the worst. Unbelievable.
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Post by cbingle on Sept 16, 2013 11:39:12 GMT -8
This explains why Eddie Cue etal sold at $504 last month. It is always best to follow the simple logic....
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Post by cbingle on Sept 16, 2013 11:40:42 GMT -8
PS: I did sell some at 504 also, but not nearly enough...
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 16, 2013 11:41:09 GMT -8
Just got off the phone with Apple sales. I was trying to find out it I order a 5S at 120:01 Friday morning, whether I could request an in store pick up some time on Friday or Saturday. He claimed they will not be doing that and it would have to be shipped. Anything in the store will be sold to those in line. He said they are getting tons of calls about the 5S. I asked about the 5C. He claimed all the 5C calls are coming from kids or adults who are planning on buying the 5C for a kid. He was surprisingly candid.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 11:41:22 GMT -8
CNET hypothesizes the lack of an announcement:
Lowensohn reports, “One likely reason: in contrast with other iPhone launches, Apple is now selling two new devices… Yet the 5C is the only device up for presale, with Apple planning to begin sales of the 5S model at 12:01 a.m. PT on Friday, Sept. 20, as well as through its carrier partners.”
Ya think? What's obvious to those with half a brain is "insight" among tech journalists. LOL.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 16, 2013 11:41:33 GMT -8
There are reports today on The Mac Observer that the yield of the fingerprint sensor is relatively low, and that is a constraint for the number of 5s phones available.
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Post by po1nt on Sept 16, 2013 11:42:24 GMT -8
the comparison isn't valid because the 5C isn't the new phone. Exactly. We actually could get some really big sales #'s with the combined total of the 5C and 5S. Who was really buying a 4S last year when the 5 was release. No one. This year apple has figured out a way to get people excited about (and actually pre-order) an old phone. We probably wont really know until the quarterly results are released, but we could see a big surprise in iPhone #'s and GM. Also, today sucks
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