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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 16, 2013 13:34:00 GMT -8
In case you are wondering why we are getting hit in after hours: Karen Finerman who is a value investor and quite good has held AAPL a very long time and said she sold her position this morning. She was told by some of her staff that the stock had pierced technical levels that were important. She said she had no clue on technical levels and does not really incorporate that into her thinking. She is a basic value investor. The reason she sold it was because she feels there is a huge disconnect between the stock and the company. She loves the company but the stock and the markets do not seem to. She was asked if she would ever get back in and she said, "Maybe...but below $400" So you see, it is not just the retail investor - any one person doesn't hurt the stock like this but a fund - when they are thoroughly disgusted - will move the stock (up or down). She said they sold every single share they had. PS Karen's hedge fund is Metropolitan Capital Advisors
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Post by mrentropy on Sept 16, 2013 13:37:06 GMT -8
Annnnd we are getting torched after hours. Apparently, KF on Fast Money dumped all of her shares. My frustration with all of this is not necessarily that Apple doesn't defend their stock, it's that they make it so easy fro others to create massive volatility. I've been a buy and holder since below 100 (the first time around), but I am now seriously considering getting completely out. I had a glimmer of hope with the dividend, Icahn getting involved and what seemed to be an improving investor sentiment. I was even seeing all the technicals looking good for the first time in what seems like forever. However, watching that slow climb from 385 get half erased in less than a week has just beaten me down.
I'm not trying to be negative, I'm just tired of this.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 13:40:31 GMT -8
Every CNBC.com article regarding today's negative AAPL price action is referencing the story I posted to start today's thread, saying that china telecom has reduced subsidies for the iPhone. That seems like a crazy overreaction if true considering the subsidy being talked about is for the 5C, and the drop is tiny and likely proportional to the drop n price of the handset.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 13:41:02 GMT -8
-.7% isn't "torched", guys. A bit more than the 50 basis points margin of error, but not "torched".
Blood in the streets? More data points keep coming in!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 13:42:57 GMT -8
I don't think telecoms tend to lower subsidies in response to slackening demand.
Oh hey, iPhone 5S pre-orders in Hong Kong and China tomorrow! Not like it'll matter, but just remembered.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 13:49:48 GMT -8
There is no great conspiracy. Apple flopped during F2013, and while retail was pushing AAPL to an ATH (September 2012), WS was smart enough to see the flop coming, and bailed (don't ask me how, I'm still working on that). In what universe can Apple's performance (sales and profit) be regarded as a "flop." In attempting to rationalize the stock price, people are overreaching. It IS true that margins declined 10% YOY (which WS wanted anyway and I believe is the price of its Samsung divorce). Does THAT justify $700 - $450 when most signs indicate margins are about to improve. Ask yourself this? Would you rather be the CEO of Microsoft or Apple, because right now, WS would rather be onboard with Microsoft the Titanic
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 13:53:28 GMT -8
Gregg, you're just changing your narrative after the fact. The flop is communications, not Apple's performance. Apple could have been much more proactive about margin communication, maybe even given more color on iPhone, but they chose not to. Poor sentiment followed.
Since Mercel brought it up - heh, MSFT has a 12.6 multiple right now.
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Post by po1nt on Sept 16, 2013 13:54:33 GMT -8
Side note. 2016 LEAPS are available as of today. So maybe this sell off did come at a good time. I maybe need to pick some of these up tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 14:12:25 GMT -8
Side note. 2016 LEAPS are available as of today. So maybe this sell off did come at a good time. I maybe need to pick some of these up tomorrow. Thanks for the tip!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 14:29:24 GMT -8
Just reviewing the days news, looks like a mini-perfect storm of negative news on AAPL today caused the sell off in my opinion:
- Lack of 5c preorder numbers announcement (many were expecting it, whether we think they were stupid to expect it doesn't matter) - News story circulating regarding reduced subsidy from china telecom (despite the fact it is probably the same deal they were doing for the iPhone 4S until last week) - Apple falling through some technical moving averages (some of the TA folks might want to clarify that) - Still chatter about of supply constrained 5S fingerprint sensor (which Apple will likely not confirm or deny until earnings call in a month)
Worst case scenario is a supply constrained 5S continues through end of quarter, leading to average Q4 results, and so even if the 5S is massively popular we may not see the result until January earnings.
Karen finerman announcing her reasons for selling on CNBC were not that crazy, she wasnt selling for fundamental or technical reasons, she was selling out of frustration of the stock being broken and disconnected from its true valuation. I can't actually disagree with that.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 14:34:45 GMT -8
In case you are wondering why we are getting hit in after hours: Karen Finerman who is a value investor and quite good has held AAPL a very long time and said she sold her position this morning. She was told by some of her staff that the stock had pierced technical levels that were important. She said she had no clue on technical levels and does not really incorporate that into her thinking. She is a basic value investor. The reason she sold it was because she feels there is a huge disconnect between the stock and the company. She loves the company but the stock and the markets do not seem to. She was asked if she would ever get back in and she said, "Maybe...but below $400" So you see, it is not just the retail investor - any one person doesn't hurt the stock like this but a fund - when they are thoroughly disgusted - will move the stock (up or down). She said they sold every single share they had. PS Karen's hedge fund is Metropolitan Capital Advisors I thought she seemed quite sincere, and it was interesting to see another member of the fast money panel say its a buy and he would rather own AAPL than the S&P 500 at this point.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 14:35:01 GMT -8
Yep. I'm with Karen Finerman: There's a total disconnect with Apple, Inc. when WS likes Microsoft better. Bizarre is an insufficient word to describe things.
I'm not worried about FQ4 earnings, it's FQ1 guidance that counts this time.
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Post by po1nt on Sept 16, 2013 14:36:54 GMT -8
For what its worth, IMO the Icahn pump never should have moved the stock up like it did. We were at the 200-day before it happened and I was expecting we would bounce off of it to around these levels ...... now were back here, so time to proceed forward. Good luck all!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 15:03:32 GMT -8
Side note. 2016 LEAPS are available as of today. So maybe this sell off did come at a good time. I maybe need to pick some of these up tomorrow. Those 2016 LEAPS are looking mighty cheap to me at the moment, especially when considering how many shares apple is going to buyback in the 28 months between now and then.
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Post by bud777 on Sept 16, 2013 15:11:16 GMT -8
Side note. 2016 LEAPS are available as of today. So maybe this sell off did come at a good time. I maybe need to pick some of these up tomorrow. Those 2016 LEAPS are looking mighty cheap to me at the moment, especially when considering how many shares apple is going to buyback in the 28 months between now and then. I was thinking the same thing. It is tempting to buy back the 590 Jan 15 calls for that I sold for $34 for $21, then sell the Jan 16 calls for $40. But, i think i will watch it a few more days.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 15:22:58 GMT -8
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Post by cbingle on Sept 16, 2013 15:42:56 GMT -8
Kall the bottom Karen...this is why you do not follow talking heads. What makes anyone think she has a f'ing clue.
This is why I have done all my investing on my own and I am retired living on the beach....STMF
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Post by tuffett on Sept 16, 2013 15:58:45 GMT -8
Those 2016 LEAPS are looking mighty cheap to me at the moment, especially when considering how many shares apple is going to buyback in the 28 months between now and then. I was thinking the same thing. It is tempting to buy back the 590 Jan 15 calls for that I sold for $34 for $21, then sell the Jan 16 calls for $40. But, i think i will watch it a few more days. I may be misunderstanding, but I don't think you want to be selling options when you think they're cheap? That's when you'd want to buy.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 16, 2013 16:40:06 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2013 16:55:29 GMT -8
Mostly? All 5s in all configurations and colors are marked "unavailable." 5c models are still available except for yellow.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 16, 2013 16:57:23 GMT -8
Kall the bottom Karen...this is why you do not follow talking heads. What makes anyone think she has a f'ing clue. This is why I have done all my investing on my own and I am retired living on the beach....STMF To be fair - Karen Finerman wasn't calling the top or bottom or anything else. She was simply frustrated at the complete disconnect the stock has from the company. She has held AAPL for years and is a value player but she admitted that she cannot value it when nothing is making sense here. Don't we often feel that way on the this Board? We know what a great company it is but somehow it very often does not translate that way for investors. Finerman was far from being harsh - she was just giving up. It doesn't seem to be worth the struggle to her any longer.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 17:15:46 GMT -8
Which is her right, and it's also a useful "capitulation" reference point.
When committed AAPL shareholders start giving up, it's a time to take notice if nothing else.
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Post by macziggy on Sept 16, 2013 17:45:10 GMT -8
Could there be numbers out tomorrow due to the Hong Kong 5S sell-out and the 5C pre-orders? Jon Fortt tweeted last week that numbers could come Tuesday (which seemed strange at the time).
Just a slim possibility...maybe? Maybe not.....
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Post by prazan on Sept 16, 2013 17:52:18 GMT -8
I'm not expecting any announcements from Apple until after this weekend. Why announce results from half the new product line? But then, I'm often wrong. Barron's Tech Trader Daily offers summaries from several analysts today, some not my favorites. As we've all seen, the initial reaction from investors and analysts was largely negative, but some analysts are now trying to figure out what Apple is thinking. The lack of a low-price phone fooled most, so the knee jerk reaction was to assume Apple doesn't know what it's doing. So I see some hope of a shift in sentiment, albeit a slow shift, and likely not decisive until sales prove the strategy. blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/?mod=BOL_Nav_DAA_hps
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 16, 2013 17:53:08 GMT -8
Could there be numbers out tomorrow due to the Hong Kong 5S sell-out and the 5C pre-orders? Jon Fortt tweeted last week that numbers could come Tuesday (which seemed strange at the time). Just a slim possibility...maybe? Maybe not..... Hong Kong 5S Sell out ? Link please .... I could use some good news ...
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 16, 2013 17:53:41 GMT -8
Well well well....I just saw my first iPhone 5c commercial! Whaddaya know! (It was an at&t commercial, not an AAPL one)
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Post by macziggy on Sept 16, 2013 17:56:41 GMT -8
Could there be numbers out tomorrow due to the Hong Kong 5S sell-out and the 5C pre-orders? Jon Fortt tweeted last week that numbers could come Tuesday (which seemed strange at the time). Just a slim possibility...maybe? Maybe not..... Hong Kong 5S Sell out ? Link please .... I could use some good news ... Just 100% speculation on my part. I'm probably wrong but here is the Hong Kong order page: HERE
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Post by macziggy on Sept 16, 2013 18:00:36 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 16, 2013 18:02:26 GMT -8
Thanks !! Just checked it .... well at least that's some good news. I'll take it as I ran out of Vodka a hour ago !
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 16, 2013 18:06:55 GMT -8
Well well well....I just saw my first iPhone 5c commercial! Whaddaya know! (It was an at&t commercial, not an AAPL one) Yeah, it was on Monday Night Football. I didn't get to fully experience the ad. What did you think of it?
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