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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 17, 2013 14:39:48 GMT -8
This is a doomsday scenario. It simply means the supply of 5Cs is "grotesquely" underwhelming. No way they would sell out if ample supplies were available. Shortage of plastic? 1. Bull = High Demand 2. Bear = Grotesquely Low Supply. Fixed it for ya.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 14:56:52 GMT -8
No, it's 5S supply everyone's worried about
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 15:05:36 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 15:15:23 GMT -8
We're going to have better data points for supply this Friday (and Thursday in Asia). Apple knows it needs to satisfy people waiting in long lines and keep the order window open at 12:01 PST for some reasonable period of time.
I'm more inclined to think Apple knows the # it needs to report next week that is better than last year's 5M.
Apple sold off yesterday because WS figured out that 5s sales were not going to impress NEXT Monday because there are only 3 days to sell it this time around (vs. 7 days last year) and most of those sales are going to be limited to in-store purchasers. The pre order # this Friday won't count because delivery will occur AFTER this weekend. So, the # is going to come up short given the physical limitation of in store sales.
However, there are two possibilities to fix this: 1. Apple reports both 5c and 5s sales this year to keep the momentum up (and secondarily, avoid disappointing WS) or, 2. Apple just reports 5s sales and stuffs the requisite inventory in the store to make the 7M # that most are expecting. With 400 retail stores and carriers, that's physically doable provided there's 7M of 5s models built.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 15:18:52 GMT -8
Just checked the German AppleStore and it does now say "5 business days" instead of "9/20" for all 5C models. So delivery has now moved to 9/25. I would see this as good news! This is a doomsday scenario. It simply means the supply of 5Cs is "grotesquely" underwhelming. No way they would sell out if ample supplies were available. Shortage of plastic? It should be noted that their are now over 100 iPhone SKUs compared to less than 10 just a couple of years ago: For every one of the five 5C colors, there are 2 storage options & 5 different LTE variants (50 SKUs total) For all three 5S colors, there are 3 storage options & 5 different LTE variants (45 SKUs total) And then we have the multiple SKUs for the still shipping 4 & 4S models. This means in many counties on many carriers sell outs will almost certainly happen regardless if apple has increased supply over last year, simply because it has to make so many different models.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 15:21:20 GMT -8
You sure the LTE thing isn't just some firmware setting? Sure, different SKU, but shouldn't be a huge pain if using the same Qualcomm chip.
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Post by rickag on Sept 17, 2013 15:56:25 GMT -8
You sure the LTE thing isn't just some firmware setting? Sure, different SKU, but shouldn't be a huge pain if using the same Qualcomm chip. That's an interesting question. The online Apple Store lists the following: Model A1532 (GSM)*: UMTS/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA (850, 900, 1700/2100, 1900, 2100 MHz); GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz); LTE (Bands 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 13, 17, 19, 20, 25) Model A1532 (CDMA)*: CDMA EV-DO Rev. A and Rev. B (800, 1700/2100, 1900, 2100 MHz); UMTS/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA (850, 900, 1700/2100, 1900, 2100 MHz); GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz); LTE (Bands 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 13, 17, 19, 20, 25) Model A1456*: CDMA EV-DO Rev. A and Rev. B (800, 1700/2100, 1900, 2100 MHz); UMTS/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA (850, 900, 1700/2100, 1900, 2100 MHz); GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz); LTE (Bands 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 13, 17, 18, 19, 20, 25, 26) Model A1507*: UMTS/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA (850, 900, 1900, 2100 MHz); GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz); LTE (Bands 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 20) Model A1529*: UMTS/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA (850, 900, 1900, 2100 MHz); GSM/EDGE (850, 900, 1800, 1900 MHz); FDD-LTE (Bands 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 20); TD-LTE (Bands 38, 39, 40) That would be one hell of a chip.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 17, 2013 16:05:01 GMT -8
Avi's bullish above 450.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 17, 2013 16:44:38 GMT -8
Anyone updated to iOS7 yet ??
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 16:46:39 GMT -8
Hmm.
$6.44B revs Q1 2013 (retail) Say 400 open stores 60% revs were iPhones (adjusting up for demand curve for retail) Call it a little under $4B in iPhone sales. (7M units) Avg. 77,000 iPhones per day across all stores during last holiday quarter (decently educated guess)
Obviously a store can handle many more than 200 iPhones sold a day, but that's still very interesting, unless Apple is blocking out a ton of iPhone sales _through_ the store because they were bought online first.
But there's an upper limit to the number of retail sales Apple stores can handle in a day. 2000? Certainly not 5000 for the smaller stores. 2000 average too high? Who knows.
Note: Apple Q4 2012 retail sales were $4.2B vs. $4.1B in fiscal Q3 2012. Very hard to tell an "iPhone revs bump" in that data and Apple didn't take personal pickup until post-launch weekend IIRC.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 16:54:58 GMT -8
Anyone have recent iPhone point of sale data? Coulda sworn Oppenheimer mentioned it recently.
Well, way over 20,000 when you combine China and the US. So there's places enough to sell millions in three days. It's just that supply thing.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 17, 2013 17:43:20 GMT -8
Anyone updated to iOS7 yet ?? I just checked for my iPad. It's not available...yet.
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Post by macoz on Sept 17, 2013 17:43:52 GMT -8
Apple in the past few quarters has forecasted Sales which it is confident of making in the following quarter. There are no significant upsides. This is as it should be for a company which is very very big in terms of market cap. For this quarter Apple is forecasting sales of 34 to 37 billion. This compares to sales of 35.3 billion in the 3rd quarter and sales of 35.9 billion in the 4th quarter 2012. The number of iPhones sold in those quarters were 31.2 million and 26.9 million respectively.
This year the 4th quarter ends on 28 Sept. How many iPhones Apple sells in this quarter will materially impact its Sales number. The iphone 5c and 5s will sell for approximately one week of this quarter. What will this number be and how far away from the 3rd quarter number of 4th quarter 2012 number.
I believe Apple knew it would be introducing new products this quarter when it published its forecast. They will not surprise materially to the upside when they announce 4th quarter's results in Oct. My point is making this long winded post is to temper over optimism over iPhone 5c and 5s sales. Of course if sales exceeds Apple's expectations they will pre-warn the market and indicate an upside to the expected 4th quarter's sales. This early announcement can come anytime after 23 Sept to about 10 Oct.
Will make for an early Christmas if they actually come out with such an announcement. That is my dream. Until then I expect Q4 iPhone numbers to be slightly above Q3 numbers. JMHO.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 17:46:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 17:50:13 GMT -8
Whoops. I guess that could be a test of sentiment as well? Eh, iPhone reviews are always pretty positive.
As if Apple would mess up an iPhone. Can't wait to get mine when partial subsidy kicks in.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 17, 2013 17:53:33 GMT -8
Anyone have recent iPhone point of sale data? Coulda sworn Oppenheimer mentioned it recently. Well, way over 20,000 when you combine China and the US. So there's places enough to sell millions in three days. It's just that supply thing. YOUR WISH IS MY COMMAND, oh great one: As I said, in the year-ago quarter, we launched the iPhone 4S with China Unicom in January and we launched China Telecom in March; this year, the iPhone 5 launched in December. and so it’s a very different set of dynamics on a year-on-year basis. Going forward, we still see a significant opportunity in China, it’s a great market. We have 11 stores there. we expect to double those in less than two years. We have added about 8,000 iPhone point-of-sales in the indirect channel to about 19,000 today and we obviously have a plan to add more and further grow our distribution, December is obviously too low currently. We’re also innovating in our online, with our online store there in adding different functionality to the store. from: April 23rd, 2013 finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-ceo-discusses-f2q13-results-224607807.html
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 18:06:20 GMT -8
So much love for the iPhone 5S, it's like I'm in a different dimension. I mean, iPhone 5 was the true redesign, and I remember a distinct difference in enthusiasm.
Thx artman. iPhone quite clearly has >>30k points of sale worldwide, so IF Apple can allocate the supply, ship-to-door isn't as important as I once thought. Though I know I'm not alone in preferring the "pick up the box at the Apple Store and walk out" or "just ship the iPhone to me" methods.
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Post by mark on Sept 17, 2013 18:28:18 GMT -8
Picked up my first set of Jan '16 positions today, some 500/600 bull call spreads.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 18:41:27 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Sept 17, 2013 19:10:32 GMT -8
The Pogue review is positive, but I'm disappointed by his inability to see around the curve. He writes, "So yes, Lesson 2 is that the speed of innovation seems to be slowing down, but don’t let that depress you." He has positive things to say about fingerprint ID but ignores the ramifications of the technology that underpins it, faster chip and coprocessor included.
Everybody talks about the "Jesus Phone" but when it appears no one recognizes it.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 19:25:17 GMT -8
The Pogue review is positive, but I'm disappointed by his inability to see around the curve. He writes, "So yes, Lesson 2 is that the speed of innovation seems to be slowing down, but don’t let that depress you." He has positive things to say about fingerprint ID but ignores the ramifications of the technology that underpins it, faster chip and coprocessor included. Everybody talks about the "Jesus Phone" but when it appears no one recognizes it. That's probably the best we can expect from the NYT, remember. They definitely have an agenda and Pogue is not immune from it.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 17, 2013 20:04:01 GMT -8
The Pogue review is positive, but I'm disappointed by his inability to see around the curve. He writes, "So yes, Lesson 2 is that the speed of innovation seems to be slowing down, but don’t let that depress you." He has positive things to say about fingerprint ID but ignores the ramifications of the technology that underpins it, faster chip and coprocessor included. Everybody talks about the "Jesus Phone" but when it appears no one recognizes it. That's probably the best we can expect from the NYT, remember. They definitely have an agenda and Pogue is not immune from it. I love positive reviews as much as anyone BUT ... go ask 10 random people if they know who Walt Mossberg or David Pouge are and let me know what the results are .... no disrespect intended as they are fine journalists but the average person isn't that interested in what they have to say. Word of mouth is where it's at for the masses ... Friday's lines and press coverage will be enough to spark people's interest, from there it is a short trip to the nearest Apple store
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 20:11:40 GMT -8
There's always SOMETHING with those reviewers.
Not hard to think up "disappointments" with the "here's your bigger screen, will you shut up already?" iPhone 6.
But they do seem more positive than for the 5. Touch ID is legit, which helps. Now to think up a secure passcode.
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 17, 2013 20:27:20 GMT -8
This is a doomsday scenario. It simply means the supply of 5Cs is "grotesquely" underwhelming. No way they would sell out if ample supplies were available. Shortage of plastic?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 20:28:14 GMT -8
I love positive reviews as much as anyone BUT ... go ask 10 random people if they know who Walt Mossberg or David Pouge are and let me know what the results are .... no disrespect intended as they are fine journalists but the average person isn't that interested in what they have to say. Word of mouth is where it's at for the masses ... Friday's lines and press coverage will be enough to spark people's interest, from there it is a short trip to the nearest Apple store The reviews are probably more impactful among analysts who seem to be driving the AAPL bus these days, so the positive reviews are welcome.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 20:35:36 GMT -8
I take good iPhones as given. If Apple ever releases a bad one it's the beginning of the end.
A7 + Touch ID = well worth the trouble of selling my iPhone 5. Just struggling with 32 v. 64GB. Beyond that, it'll probably take a big jump in battery life for me to move to iPhone 6.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 20:43:44 GMT -8
I take good iPhones as given. If Apple ever releases a bad one it's the beginning of the end. A7 + Touch ID = well worth the trouble of selling my iPhone 5. Just struggling with 32 v. 64GB. Beyond that, it'll probably take a big jump in battery life for me to move to iPhone 6. Big screen (4.9") in 2014, possibly FQ3.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 20:59:52 GMT -8
Wow - the anandtech review is Epic, really talks up the A7, it truly is comparable to a low end desktop CPU, and matches or beats performance of bigger tablet CPUs.
Also interesting that the A7 may be the battery life solution to a retina mini and or slimmed down iPad 5 (which otherwise would have needed a comparatively high power A5x/A6x chip.)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 21:15:00 GMT -8
Apparently iOS 7 is due out in about 12 hours (1pm eastern)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 21:21:07 GMT -8
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