Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2013 20:07:35 GMT -8
Gregg - if apple announces 10 million iPhones were sold this weekend - that would change sentiment before earnings in a positive way? No or am I being foolish. If not - perhaps you are the fool? Did you have a guess for Monday? I don't really have a clue, esp. since Apple decided to go with "Ships: October" instead of something like "2-3 weeks" from last year.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 20:10:31 GMT -8
Gregg - if apple announces 10 million iPhones were sold this weekend - that would change sentiment before earnings in a positive way? No or am I being foolish. If not - perhaps you are the fool? That's true enough, but sentiment changes based on data points like that are temporary in nature. Long term change requires direction from management as to the next quarter's results. Perhaps I should have made that distinction in my comment. Outside of that stocks go up and stocks go down for the flimsiest of reasons.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2013 20:12:36 GMT -8
If iPhone demand is there and supply will ramp up enough, I have a hard time seeing Oppenheimer issuing "bad" guidance. But you also have to account for iPad, and it's not 100% clear that both iPad + mini will see refreshes this year (even though it seems obvious).
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Post by nagrani on Sept 21, 2013 20:16:06 GMT -8
Here is my logic - I think when apple was planning the iPhone launches - they knew that the first weekend sales would be a market sentiment data point as to how apple is doing. I know they care about sentiment evidenced by recent bloomberg and USA today articles and comments like the one Phil made during the WWDC (referring to innovation). So - I think Tim rose to the occasion being the supply guru he is and said - let's go big boys and make 10 million iPhones. So... Mav - I'm going to say 10 million (in the evil laughing voice from the Austin powers movie)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 20:19:11 GMT -8
Just back from a quick trip down to the local Apple Store. Got there about 8:15 PM PST. Looked to be about 15 Apple Reps and 35 people/customers. Nearly all display iPhones were engaged. Spoke with Raps that were there for the iPhone 5 launch. According to them activity is higher, but unable to quantify. Friday and Saturday stock sold out before noon. Got tomorrow's stock in the back with instructions not to open until tomorrow. No ideas on how many are in the container.
5Ss seem to be outselling the 5C by 3:1.
If the ratio is the same in China, then China Unicom's 100,000 pre-orders might have been 400,000, if the 5S were included. But then, if I had eggs I could have ham and eggs, if I had ham.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 20:26:34 GMT -8
Gregg - if apple announces 10 million iPhones were sold this weekend - that would change sentiment before earnings in a positive way? No or am I being foolish. If not - perhaps you are the fool? Reread my post. I stand by that statement, although my statement might have been clearer had I said: "So expecting a long lasting, major shift in sentiment prior to earnings is a fool's game."
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Post by nagrani on Sept 21, 2013 20:26:56 GMT -8
Gregg - that's deep bro.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 21, 2013 20:43:35 GMT -8
I like what vitalogy80 said. He makes a contribution to this forum. I have had Apple computers for almost 25 years, and teach Computer Science.
His opinion is thoughtful. He raises some solid points. Most of you, like me, see only the beauty of Apple. But I do think Apple is more fragile than Google or Amazon.
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Post by sponge on Sept 21, 2013 21:00:23 GMT -8
I am rethinking my 8.4 million estimate. Given that most of the phones sold were 5S, I don't think Apple could move enough thru their stores to beat 5 million world wide.
I still think they can move 12 million before the end of the quarter to get us to over 34 million.
Bottom line is that WS will not be happy with less then 6 million.
So we will have to wait until earnings for the big stock move beyond 500.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2013 21:02:08 GMT -8
More fragile?
Don't confuse the strategy and what levels of competence it requires to execute it with _actual_ fragility. Because by that metric, EVERY best-in-class company with the highest expectations and aspirations is the most fragile. Because as soon as they stop doing what makes them great, boom, mediocrity or worse. "The strategy is tougher to do" and "it takes a lot of energy to make sure the business model works" isn't fragility. Degree of difficulty doesn't necessarily equate to likelihood of failure.
Are the Miami Heat fragile? (Actually, bad example.) Is Roger Federer fragile? Is Ferrari fragile? Is Burberry fragile? Is Cartier fragile? Just because they focus on top-performer, "niche" strategies?
It goes beyond simple loyalty of customers or even "quality" of customers. Which company is better equipped for the winter? Which company has the vision, the actual ability to innovate through downturns? Which company has the better vision?
If you find Apple more fragile than Google or Amazon, you better not have AAPL as your top holding over GOOG or AMZN. It's simple common sense conviction.
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Post by zzmac on Sept 21, 2013 21:30:17 GMT -8
If apple announces 10 million iPhones were sold this weekend it will just prove that consumers are a lot smarter than clown analysts. Gregg - if apple announces 10 million iPhones were sold this weekend - that would change sentiment before earnings in a positive way? No or am I being foolish. If not - perhaps you are the fool?
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Post by zzmac on Sept 21, 2013 21:37:05 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Sept 22, 2013 1:27:19 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 22, 2013 2:52:06 GMT -8
Zipping around in my little Fiat (yikes - talk of cars) and heard this on the radio...then came home to look it up. What other company in the world has literally "the world" up against them constantly trying to bring them down? Maybe I'm too sensitive but no, I'm pretty thick skinned. This is unreal. Title of Reuters article, "Hackers offered cash, booze to crack iPhone fingerprint security" If you want to read the article here is the link but the title says it all. Some articles say $13k, others say $20k. A micro-venture capital firm in Chicago is offering it. The claims are that if they uncover the flaw early on they can produce a fix for it. Ok - even if I believed that - then why don't we see this for other companies? And if it happens then why does it get zero media coverage? Why worry about us AAPL users when everyone claims that Android phones are owned by the masses....so if you are trying to be helpful then be selfless and go help the masses instead of the few! Again, trying to be somewhat objective but this is relentless... www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-iphone-hackers-idUSBRE98I10I20130919
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Post by leonb on Sept 22, 2013 4:07:32 GMT -8
More fragile?If you find Apple more fragile than Google or Amazon, you better not have AAPL as your top holding over GOOG or AMZN. It's simple common sense conviction. I disagree. I believe Apple is more fragile than Google and Amazon (which are both extremely sticky), but also that Apple is the better value stock. Apple is my top holding, I've never been long or short Google, I've shorted Amazon before. I'm confident my outlook and position are consistent.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 22, 2013 5:31:22 GMT -8
Zipping around in my little Fiat (yikes - talk of cars) and heard this on the radio...then came home to look it up. What other company in the world has literally "the world" up against them constantly trying to bring them down? Maybe I'm too sensitive but no, I'm pretty thick skinned. This is unreal. Title of Reuters article, "Hackers offered cash, booze to crack iPhone fingerprint security" If you want to read the article here is the link but the title says it all. Some articles say $13k, others say $20k. A micro-venture capital firm in Chicago is offering it. The claims are that if they uncover the flaw early on they can produce a fix for it. Ok - even if I believed that - then why don't we see this for other companies? And if it happens then why does it get zero media coverage? Why worry about us AAPL users when everyone claims that Android phones are owned by the masses....so if you are trying to be helpful then be selfless and go help the masses instead of the few! Again, trying to be somewhat objective but this is relentless... www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-iphone-hackers-idUSBRE98I10I20130919I think that this is more about glory hunting than necessarily anti-Apple animus. Figuring out how to break into the corner drugstore just doesn't have the same cachet.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 22, 2013 6:26:42 GMT -8
I think that the idea of sales of 10 million new iPhones this weekend is a hallucination. Given the shortage of 5s supplies, the high price of the 5c, and the lack of evident enthusiasm about the 5c, I suspect that we will see sales closer to 5 million, and perhaps below (figures that I'm pulling out of my rear, like everyone else here). I expect the stock to tank tomorrow. But, AAPL can always surprise.
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Post by rickag on Sept 22, 2013 7:19:53 GMT -8
I think that the idea of sales of 10 million new iPhones this weekend is a hallucination. Given the shortage of 5s supplies, the high price of the 5c, and the lack of evident enthusiasm about the 5c, I suspect that we will see sales closer to 5 million, and perhaps below (figures that I'm pulling out of my rear, like everyone else here). I expect the stock to tank tomorrow. But, AAPL can always surprise. I prefer pulling mine out of hat, for obvious reasons.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 22, 2013 7:32:31 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Sept 22, 2013 7:35:43 GMT -8
We'll see, captain crunch.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 10:24:45 GMT -8
Well, it's 2AM Monday in China now.
Based on last year, Apple should have something to say an hour or so before market open tomorrow. Potential...consternation if not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 11:02:28 GMT -8
There's a claim that Touch ID is as vulnerable as any other typical fingerprint scanner out there. We'll see if Apple says anything or takes action from there.
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Post by rickag on Sept 22, 2013 12:15:55 GMT -8
There's a claim that Touch ID is as vulnerable as any other typical fingerprint scanner out there. We'll see if Apple says anything or takes action from there. Haven't seen that...link?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 12:20:55 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Sept 22, 2013 12:25:09 GMT -8
Well, it's 2AM Monday in China now. Based on last year, Apple should have something to say an hour or so before market open tomorrow. Potential...consternation if not. Every Apple on-line store that I have checked says the same thing. 5C's and 4S's shipping in 24 hours. 5S's in October. That can be interpreted in many ways depending on one's inclination.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 12:36:11 GMT -8
Whats there to disagree with? It's mostly facts, not opinion. Fact - Smartphone is an ever changing business with new leaders Fact - Margins went down 10% from last year Fact - EPS has declined for the past year Fact - Google gains 90+% from Ads based on Search Revenue Fact - Samsung and others are stealing share in the non US world, especially emerging markets. Opinion - I believe Apple will be much higher next year. Opinion - People in general don't believe there's much EPS growth left in Apple. That's just my opinion, because if the general investor felt like Apple was going to grow a lot in the next few years, it wouldn't be sitting with a PE of 11 or 12. So do you disagree with my facts or my opinions? You said "AAPL is just coming off a year with margins declining from the high 40's to mid 30's. You're cherry picking an outlier quarter for "high 40's (March 2012), and I don't know where you get mid 30s (it's wrong). FACT: For the most recent four quarters, average GM was 38%. The prior four quarters a year earlier, GM averaged 44%. Apple's margins are still the envy of smartphone manufacturers. In other words, you're spinning it. You said: "The Smartphone business is very fickle...those who were on top before, quickly fall, or at least that's the perception." This was true a year ago when Apple was at $700. You must be referring to companies that are faltering in mobile, like Blackberry? Nokia? Apple's iPhones are still growing in unit sales. More spin to justify WS valuation. You said: "But the fact is they've come off a pretty terrible year." Really? Despite moderating margins that everyone expected (and in some corners of WS, desired), Apple reported approx. $38B vs. $40B net income YOY for the most recent four quarters through last June. Let's reserve "terrible" for companies that deserve it. This is EXACTLY the kind of CNBC narrative we've come to expect. Why disseminate that FUD here? You mentioned market share, a favorite metric to spin the negative on Apple. Here's some reading on the subject, in which John Kirk demolishes analysts' favorite meme against Apple. Surely, you read this, if not, you're welcome. techpinions.com/androids-market-share-is-literally-a-joke/16709The coup de grace is "price is truth." This means NOTHING. It conveys no information and has no predictive value whatsoever. If WS reflects an efficient market and pricing mechanism, then you have to accept that whole, including Apple and Amazon and Google. Google reported a 3% increase in EPS YOY, yet its stock galloped approx. 30%. Makes sense? No. Netflix was $53 a year ago and now it's $314? Was $53 "price is truth" then? Nothing really fundamentally has changed with this company, so go ahead with your "In Wall Street We Trust" leap of faith, but excuse my skepticism with this bon mot.
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 22, 2013 12:39:04 GMT -8
Looks like Tim Cook is enjoying Twitter. He already retweeted Conan and Jimmy Fallon's tweets on the new iOS and 5S. Good / smart publicity. (: I'm using twitter just for him! C'mon timmay
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 12:47:21 GMT -8
I loved a Nokia "smartphone" I had to tech support for a family member.
In order to turn it off when it crashed (which it did often), you had to OPEN THE CASE AND RIP OUT THE BATTERY.
Not very user-friendly.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 12:50:34 GMT -8
Unless iPhone 5S/5C show me otherwise, I still think Apple is intentionally burning off a bit of margin here and there to reduce the price umbrella for competitors and improve product value for money. That would still be going for share in Apple's own way.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 12:55:46 GMT -8
More fragile?If you find Apple more fragile than Google or Amazon, you better not have AAPL as your top holding over GOOG or AMZN. It's simple common sense conviction. I disagree. I believe Apple is more fragile than Google and Amazon (which are both extremely sticky), but also that Apple is the better value stock. Apple is my top holding, I've never been long or short Google, I've shorted Amazon before. I'm confident my outlook and position are consistent. Not seeing it. Fragility should directly affect conviction. You'd think fragility and revenue level were related as well.
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