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Post by firestorm on Sept 28, 2013 9:26:30 GMT -8
As this goes on, I find there is less and less value here each and every day. Funny how this is encouraged while I get crucified if I dare to have an opinion that disagrees with the notion that Apple is perfect. Well said. I especially find it interesting that the guys who loudly bleat that they are putting someone on "ignore" are the ones with the least useful opinions. There is something about getting old and rich that makes some people think their opinions (and their lives, for that matter) are worth more than others. If this attitude wasn't so obnoxious, it would just be pitifully funny.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2013 10:35:17 GMT -8
Steve Ballmer wasn't a bad guy from most accounts. He just couldn't get past the Rah-Rah style of leadership, a company that benefited enormously from a monopoly. I think Alan Mulally would be effective at changing the culture there, and I think he's too smart to take it, as this leviathan has too many challenges to interest a 69 year old executive who enjoys rock star status at Ford. Fixing Microsoft will require a very long runway.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2013 11:00:56 GMT -8
Steve Ballmer wasn't a bad guy from most accounts. He just couldn't get past the Rah-Rah style of leadership, a company that benefited enormously from a monopoly. I think Alan Mulally would be effective at changing the culture there, and I think he's too smart to take it, as this leviathan has too many challenges to interest a 69 year old executive who enjoys rock star status at Ford. Fixing Microsoft will require a very long runway Fixing MSFT will require a totally revamped BoD, signaling that old/existing alliances are of no value. Then it will require a two year period of management upheaval, as fiefdoms are tore apart in favor of a culture of collaboration. Then it will take 10 years for MSFT to find its bearing and re-establish itself as relevant. The first 5 years will see market share losses, as its Windows franchise is re-imagined into a 21st Century product, that doesn't rely on MSCE's to maintain its dominance in the Enterprise.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 28, 2013 11:54:05 GMT -8
May I once again ask advice from the more experienced here? What usually happens when a call becomes "in-the-money" long before its expiration? Does the holder of the call wait until right before expiration to exercise it? Or do they usually exercise it as soon as they have made a reasonable profit? I am thinking about buying back the Jan 15 calls I sold and selling Jan 16 calls. In the money options are exercised randomly in a lottery system. I am sure you are well aware that they are "American style" options meaning they can be exercised at any time. That said, if there is a lot of time premium left on the call you would not be exercised. Think about it this way, if you were the holder of the call you would make more by just selling the call because you would also capture that time premium left and not merely the intrinsic value. Did that make sense? Does it answer your question? Hope it was a little helpful.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 11:58:01 GMT -8
As many here know, phoebear was a floor trader in a prior life. She knows that of which she speaks. Btw phoebear, I thought you mentioned...a second rebalancing or something this week?
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Post by greyfox15 on Sept 28, 2013 12:00:17 GMT -8
To everyone who agrees with my views - I urge you to make them known. Good luck to all. Go Apple. Go AAPL. +1 +2
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Post by rob_london on Sept 28, 2013 12:00:42 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 12:01:03 GMT -8
As if Shutdowngate wasn't enough!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 28, 2013 13:19:08 GMT -8
This board is clearly moderated with a bias, and it's a bias I can't agree with. Debate is discouraged. Calling out people on their bullshit is discouraged. No, this board is moderated with exhaustion. Debate is welcome; disrespect is not. And that, I admit, can be tough since there's a whole lot of dislike among certain members -- and a whole lot of difficult personalities that often and regularly clash. That said, I do try to be an equal opportunity banner, so if you think someone needs a timeout and I miss it, do let me know. Keep in mind if I ban everyone, no one will be left to post.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 13:24:57 GMT -8
That third part there is the problem ("calling out people on BS").
That's the completely wrong approach. It says a lack of civility is OK. If everyone backed off the broad brush (and, for example, don't get excessively up in arms when someone takes the position that people who pre-sell iPhones and open themselves to the possibility of not having an iPhone until the new one arrives are not free of responsibility, as a milder example), we'd all be better off.
Debate-crushing absolutists who think Apple is perfect? Whoever thinks that has got the wrong tint on this board. Don't mistake disagreement with personal attacks. Heck, maybe lay off the personal attacks in the first place.
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Post by Gridlock on Sept 28, 2013 13:29:51 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Sept 28, 2013 15:15:13 GMT -8
iPad has a difficult job. She can't catch everything. And knowing she just made a big move, I'm sure she has seen less now.
There are a good number of jackasses on this board that demonstrate time and again that they don't know what they're talking about. Be wary of who you listen to. Especially posters who swear by certain investing/trading strategies and don't ever disclose the trades they make.
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Post by Ultrarunner on Sept 28, 2013 15:18:43 GMT -8
I read but don't post much, mostly due to the lack of civility of some contributors. Disagreeing is one thing, but rudeness is a turn-off. I'm glad there will be one less offender. For the others, just ask "how would Mav say it" before posting
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Post by mace on Sept 28, 2013 15:56:45 GMT -8
Time for Myers-Briggs? Too many TJs in this forum?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 16:00:24 GMT -8
Not sure if you're callin' me part of the problem there Ultrarunner But I guess this is a good opportunity to show cards.
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Post by sponge on Sept 28, 2013 16:15:57 GMT -8
Mace
What does your crystal EW analysis say about where aapl is headed next?
The sponge ball says we will be above 513 by ER.
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Post by rickag on Sept 28, 2013 16:48:09 GMT -8
Mace What does your crystal EW analysis say about where aapl is headed next? The sponge ball says we will be above 513 by ER. I don't know about $513, but announcing a deal with China Mobile between now and the ER would go a long way to getting there.
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Post by BillH on Sept 28, 2013 16:55:49 GMT -8
No, this board is moderated with exhaustion. This comment provided one of the biggest yucks of my weekend. Sadly, it came at the expense of your good nature. Here's hoping your new domicile will provide some relief from the negatives of taking on this project...,for which we all are indebted.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2013 17:06:18 GMT -8
Unless Apple has more than doubled production capacity, I think China Mobile's launch won't happen until the March quarter.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 17:13:23 GMT -8
What? Of course not. You launch when the iron is hot. REAL hot. Like, China's first LTE-anything network launch hot. Especially if, as rumors suggest, China Mobile will promote the heck out of iPhone.
WS will understand if China Mobile is responsible for putting Apple into the BEST PREDICAMENT EVER. And it's not like Apple didn't provision for something like this (to some degree). What, everyone goes to Xiaomi because they can't get an iPhone right away?
Adding a 700M-subscriber carrier might cause some supply/demand imbalance. Better get that iPhone 5S you want before November, then.
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Post by sponge on Sept 28, 2013 17:17:19 GMT -8
Unless Apple has more than doubled production capacity, I think China Mobile's launch won't happen until the March quarter. I agree. CM will have to wait. I see that announcement no sooner then Dec. Institutional channel checks now that the iPhones are shipping, should result into increased volume come 2nd to 3rd week of Oct. If the new iPads announcement comes before ER then that should move the needle towards 500 and beyond.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 17:22:08 GMT -8
China Mobile is champing at the bit to be first to market with a LTE network.
And you think Apple won't be a China Mobile launch partner when this happens? If that's the case, why did Apple decide to move up the China iPhone launch by three months? Wouldn't it have made more sense to prioritize for the company with the highest anticipated demand in that event?
No, I think Apple just wants to sell as many iPhones as possible. The demand curve will never be higher than it is now; Apple will simply have to ramp up as fast as it can with very little room for error. That's the path it's chosen for better or worse.
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Post by sponge on Sept 28, 2013 17:36:44 GMT -8
China Mobile is champing at the bit to be first to market with a LTE network. And you think Apple won't be a China Mobile launch partner when this happens? If that's the case, why did Apple decide to move up the China iPhone launch by three months? Wouldn't it have made more sense to prioritize for the company with the highest anticipated demand in that event? No, I think Apple just wants to sell as many iPhones as possible. The demand curve will never be higher than it is now; Apple will simply have to ramp up as fast as it can with very little room for error. That's the path it's chosen for better or worse. I do not disagree, however the LTE on CM does not get activated until Nov. Secondly Apple has dozens of more countries to release in and here in the biggest market we have shipment dates into Nov. There are millions of contracts and institutional buyers that have yet to put in their large orders. My wife will get hers end of Oct and her University only ordered a couple of dozen not hundreds. King County in Seattle is about to change to the iPhone for their thousands of employees. And the list goes on. Apple will reward CT and CU first and CM will have to wait the same way Verizon did past the holiday season. Apple does not have production capacity for the 5C and 5S, otherwise they could have simply stated they will ship to China including CM in Nov.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2013 18:02:20 GMT -8
There's lots of precedent that when bringing on a large carrier, Apple does it in the March quarter. Think about it, average iPhone unit growth during that last 3 December quarters results in 58 Million iPhones for the coming December quarter. That's AVERAGE growth. It does not include 5C, DoCoMo or fully compatible EU LTE iPhone.
Can you imagine the additional capacity needed to satisfy initial CM demand and channel fill. Besides, we're still waiting for MIIT certification of CM's LTE network.
I'm forecasting 64 Million, all things considered.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 18:04:16 GMT -8
Time to revise that historical model, IMHO.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2013 18:58:55 GMT -8
Time to revise that historical model, IMHO. Really? What's your estimate?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 19:10:35 GMT -8
No no, the China Mobile delay. I won't have fiscal Q1 iPhone estimates for a while yet.
Obviously we're all just guessing what Apple will do. We'll get a better idea by November.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 28, 2013 20:12:36 GMT -8
Tuffet, please reconsider. I too do not post very often, but have loved this board and its predecessor (when Robert was moderating it). Thus a member for many, many years.
We need all views to be aired. It keeps the board healthy. We all have to respect each other. Hope you come back ! !
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Post by mace on Sept 28, 2013 20:22:10 GMT -8
Mace What does your crystal EW analysis say about where aapl is headed next? The sponge ball says we will be above 513 by ER. Long term would be above $700. Short term ... so long don't break below $478, expect to $525.
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Post by mace on Sept 28, 2013 20:27:47 GMT -8
What, everyone goes to Xiaomi because they can't get an iPhone right away? Don't underestimate Xiaomi (XIAOMZ:CH), Lei Jun rocks like Steve Jobs. I would buy its stock if listed.
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