Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 20:36:42 GMT -8
I blogged about Xiaomi mace. Point is if people want an iPhone badly enough, most if them will wait for it. Not all, but most.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 28, 2013 20:53:05 GMT -8
This thread reminds me of some Woody Allen quotes:
"The food here is terrible, and the portions are too small."
"Life is full of misery, loneliness, and suffering - and it's all over much too soon."
|
|
|
Post by mace on Sept 28, 2013 22:32:56 GMT -8
Unless Apple has more than doubled production capacity, I think China Mobile's launch won't happen until the March quarter. My thought is after Christmas and before Lunar New Year i.e. Jan 2014.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2013 23:24:13 GMT -8
Unless Apple has more than doubled production capacity, I think China Mobile's launch won't happen until the March quarter. My thought is after Christmas and before Lunar New Year i.e. Jan 2014. That would be mine as well.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2013 23:36:38 GMT -8
We'll see when that MIIT license issues.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 29, 2013 2:55:14 GMT -8
This thread reminds me of some Woody Allen quotes: "The food here is terrible, and the portions are too small." "Life is full of misery, loneliness, and suffering - and it's all over much too soon." Dogs got me up early and as I flipped through the boob tube I came across Woody Allen's "Bananas".....pure genius.
|
|
|
Post by infohunter on Sept 29, 2013 6:26:44 GMT -8
Question for the board......do you think the new iPad5 and mini will have the fingerprint sensor?
|
|
|
Post by doublerainbow on Sept 29, 2013 6:46:35 GMT -8
Question for the board......do you think the new iPad5 and mini will have the fingerprint sensor? Yes for the iPad. Questionable for the mini. Their next upgrade should be the retina display. That's a much bigger upgrade IMO and not sure at their price point they can afford 2 big upgrades at once? Shrug.
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Sept 29, 2013 6:53:18 GMT -8
Time for Myers-Briggs? Too many TJs in this forum? The temperaments are SJ (Guardian), SP (Artisan), NF (Idealist) and NT (Rational). I think you're thinking of the SJ, who generally bases their world view on the past while being openly critical of other viewpoints. "Critical" in this context is not bad, more like questioning until a historical track record of facts warrants a change. Short summary of temperament here: www.keirsey.com/4temps/overview_temperaments.asp
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Sept 29, 2013 7:18:38 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 9:19:05 GMT -8
I think he's mistaken on GM. I do hope the fact I disagree doesn't crush dissent on this forum.
Restoring gross margin sounds like opening a price umbrella for competitors. Apple's general price strategy is to add value at same price. While 5C/5S may stop the GM decline this year and reverse it somewhat, I'm not thinking Apple ever intends for GM to return to the low 40s anytime soon.
I also don't see a problem with "overreliance" on iPhone. Simply put there IS no bigger market in consumer tech. It's a risk Apple can deal with and a market that Apple can adapt to if consumer preferences shift over time. As many have said, Phone.app is the only thing phone about iPhone. The bigger deal is the everything else, and iOS is far from a Windows trajectory for now.
Of course intense focus on few products carries business risk. Apple need to keep betting correctly on trends, stay at the forefront of traditional computing replacements, expand software/service revenues, maybe enter a new market or two. But Apple will likely not be able to "significantly" diversify revenue mix for the foreseeable future.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Sept 29, 2013 9:40:13 GMT -8
I think he's mistaken on GM. I do hope the fact I disagree doesn't crush dissent on this forum. Restoring gross margin sounds like opening a price umbrella for competitors. Apple's general price strategy is to add value at same price. While 5C/5S may stop the GM decline this year and reverse it somewhat, I'm not thinking Apple ever intends for GM to return to the low 40s anytime soon. I also don't see a problem with "overreliance" on iPhone. Simply put there IS no bigger market in consumer tech. It's a risk Apple can deal with and a market that Apple can adapt to if consumer preferences shift over time. As many have said, Phone.app is the only thing phone about iPhone. The bigger deal is the everything else, and iOS is far from a Windows trajectory for now. Of course intense focus on few products carries business risk. Apple need to keep betting correctly on trends, stay at the forefront of traditional computing replacements, expand software/service revenues, maybe enter a new market or two. But Apple will likely not be able to "significantly" diversify revenue mix for the foreseeable future. Well said Mav. I agree 100%. Don't see margin higher then 39.5%. Average has been about 37% historically . The iPhone has plenty of room to grow and the iPad is still getting started. Last night I realized that Apple could go into wearables and clothing. That is an industry ripe for change.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2013 10:03:26 GMT -8
One of Robert's best, if not the best, analysis of the issues facing Apple and how Apple plans to deal with them. I liked the way he addressed ending inventories. He and I discussed the importance of the earnings report metric a while back. I like how he has developed it into understanding consumer demand (not always accurately portrayed in units sold data). There is lots of good nuggets in Robert's article, but this one stands out in my mind, "Urgency for Apple to address consumers in emerging markets is nothing more than misplaced anxiety." I couldn't agree more.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 29, 2013 10:23:48 GMT -8
Not sure if this activation of iPhones article was posted on Friday... news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57604951-37/the-2-percent-iphone-5s-5c-find-a-fast-foothold/I like this sentence,,,,, "To compile its latest report, Localytics analyzed more than 20 million iPhone activations in the US from Friday, September 20, until Thursday, September 26." As for China Mobile, my Wag is a November announcement when the new network is lit up. Availability on or about December 1st. And it WILL be the biggest promotion of the iPhone we have ever seen. China Mobile wants to be seen as THE network with THE devices that work on it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2013 10:29:00 GMT -8
I think he's mistaken on GM. I do hope the fact I disagree doesn't crush dissent on this forum. Reasoned dissent is welcomed. It is the reasoning behind the dissent that encourages critical thinking. An iPhone price umbrella has existed since 2007, and the competition have used it to compete with each other. None has successfully attacked iPhone's base of users by offering a less expensive alternative. Apple's overall GM is a function of product mix. The lowest GM most likely comes from Mac sales, while the highest GM comes from iPhones. As iPhones generate more and more of Apple's Revenue, the Company's GM will increase. I'm modeling 41% GM for FQ1 for that reason. You said it best when you stated that Apple protects its pricing strategy by adding real perceived value to its products. Apple's competition can't duplicate this strategy, because their respective business models are to make their products less costly, not better. Further, they are reliant of Apple for the innovation they will attempt to copy. Not having control over the OS is like tying one hand behind their back before entering the ring. And now Apple has demonstrated that control over the processor is equally important. Who among Apple's competitors controls the OS, processor and hardware? I agree. I remember the original iPhone keynote, where SJ described it as three products: a phone, an iPod, and an internet communications device. For the life of me, I did not comprehend the relevance/importance of the "internet communications" device, and in the end that was the most important aspect of the iPhone.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2013 10:38:35 GMT -8
Not sure if this activation of iPhones article was posted on Friday... news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57604951-37/the-2-percent-iphone-5s-5c-find-a-fast-foothold/I like this sentence,,,,, "To compile its latest report, Localytics analyzed more than 20 million iPhone activations in the US from Friday, September 20, until Thursday, September 26." As for China Mobile, my Wag is a November announcement when the new network is lit up. Availability on or about December 1st. And it WILL be the biggest promotion of the iPhone we have ever seen. China Mobile wants to be seen as THE network with THE devices that work on it. Good stuff, but I do not think availability is causing the 5C to gain ground against the 5S. The 5C is an enhanced 5 offered in colors. The job the 5C is being hired for, that the 5 could not offer, is improved worldwide LTE compatibility, and colors at a 5 price point.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2013 11:23:31 GMT -8
Not sure if this activation of iPhones article was posted on Friday... news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57604951-37/the-2-percent-iphone-5s-5c-find-a-fast-foothold/I like this sentence,,,,, "To compile its latest report, Localytics analyzed more than 20 million iPhone activations in the US from Friday, September 20, until Thursday, September 26." As for China Mobile, my Wag is a November announcement when the new network is lit up. Availability on or about December 1st. And it WILL be the biggest promotion of the iPhone we have ever seen. China Mobile wants to be seen as THE network with THE devices that work on it. Can that be correct, for the US only? Extrapolating this number world wide is mind boggling.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Sept 29, 2013 11:26:33 GMT -8
I like this sentence,,,,, The job the 5C is being hired for, that the 5 could not offer, is improved worldwide LTE compatibility, and colors at a 5 price point. I know how long it takes to do that in color. Nice job!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 11:31:49 GMT -8
I love how the 5 is a limited edition in THIS case. Helps resale value. ;D
20M activations in the US doesn't sound right one bit. But I wouldn't mind it being even half-true.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 11:33:05 GMT -8
Oppenheimer said he would deny competitors a price umbrella. This must be true in at least some sense.
Now you can always low-cost against Apple. But that was no empty statement.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2013 11:39:13 GMT -8
Visited an ATT store this morning. The 5s in silver is backlogged 20-25 business days and the gold model needs 40-45 days to fill. I don't recall the demand ever being this strong for an iPhone.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 11:48:00 GMT -8
Some skeptic said "they always say high demand" at the carrier stores Though that may well be true for call-ins vs. actual visits and Sprint trying to gain share, it DOES feel a little different doesn't it? Here's my tinfoil theory - what a difference an S makes. There's an excitement in the air that wasn't present for the 5 (which is my favorite iPhone by a mile).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2013 12:09:46 GMT -8
Oppenheimer said he would deny competitors a price umbrella. This must be true in at least some sense. Now you can always low-cost against Apple. But that was no empty statement. I'll bet the "umbrella" protection OP spoke about is in fingerprint technology and processors. Apple bought Authentec for $335 Million, and got a small revenue stream, which Apple almost immediately shutdown. The deal is though, that Apple's owns a proprietary manufacturing process that makes mobile fingerprint reading more reliable and much more durable. Competitors will have to license fingerprint technology, and contract manufacturing of the sensors, etc. All of these elements, if you don't own them, are going to be expensive (and may not work as well as Apple's technology). Further, when you buy a processor you are paying for the fab AND the IP behind the processor. Additionally, that processor may not be fully optimized for the OS that powers your device. Lots of potential for performance lags and higher expense, when you don't own the technology.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 12:32:28 GMT -8
No, Oppenheimer was crystal clear as to price and margins.
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 29, 2013 12:35:52 GMT -8
Any WAGs for tomorrow on how badly political event is going to affect the market
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Sept 29, 2013 12:46:04 GMT -8
Any WAGs for tomorrow on how badly political event is going to affect the market Baked in. Only good can come of it.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 12:48:46 GMT -8
I expect some roiling. My WAG, futures will reflect some fear when they open in about an hour.
Hopefully there's a passed, signed CR by end of week. Agreed that market ultimately shrugs this off as long as the rating agencies don't make noises about credit rating downgrade.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 29, 2013 12:59:31 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2013 13:15:12 GMT -8
It's only marketing until everyone finally catches up. Love that Apple went the POWER route with A7. ;D Not long until I get me a Space Gray 5S...
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 29, 2013 13:28:47 GMT -8
It's only marketing until everyone finally catches up. Love that Apple went the POWER route with A7. ;D Not long until I get me a Space Gray 5S... I can get you a 32 gig gold model for $1200. You know you want the gold.don't try to kid us......
|
|