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Post by roni on Sept 28, 2012 13:38:29 GMT -8
Here it is. Sure hope is it not too early
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Post by roni on Sept 28, 2012 13:41:15 GMT -8
Here it is. Sure hope is it not too early Is it?
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Post by gyromac on Sept 28, 2012 13:45:48 GMT -8
so glad to find you guys again!!!!!
horrible close today.....maybe now that share buy back kicks in we can stabilize above 660 on monday.....lots of negative sentiment for our beloved aapl these days (why....who knows....but that's how it goes)...still has the hottest selling product on the planet right now....so keep the faith....
cheers to the longs!!!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 28, 2012 13:56:36 GMT -8
Welcome gyro. I sense another seasonal low ahead, just because it can.
Monday morning will have the latest data from NetApplications. Not much use except as moral support for trends. More importantly, and not very likely, Apple might announce sales as pertaining to the international launch of the iPhone 5.
Time to burn up the phone lines for the weekend start.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 28, 2012 14:04:44 GMT -8
For those interested, the following article discusses aapl's historical average monthly (& daily) returns. seekingalpha.com/article/311333-when-is-the-best-time-to-buy-appleOver the past 27 years, October has been aapl's 2nd best month, returning on average about 8%. September, on the otherhand, has historically been aapl's worst month, losing about 5% on average.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 28, 2012 14:12:26 GMT -8
Well after a painful week, some may appreciate a new iPhone review. And not from the friendliest source either. A Week with the iPhone 5 from GizmodoWe have a new phone that almost everyone says is the best on the planet. It is going to sell in huge numbers and the share price will respond in its own good time. Use the current FUDfest to position for when the sentiment turns. Apologies to anyone who thinks Maps = doomsday for this one
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Post by macziggy on Sept 28, 2012 14:28:55 GMT -8
What a close! Those EOs certainly took the ball and ran with Tim Cook's strange apology.
Anyway, looks like today was an "inside day. "
"An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse." So, that doesn't sound quite as bad as the experience.
I'll try to post a chart in the Apple Technical section that shows the level I am watching.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2012 14:47:41 GMT -8
I kinda feel like I need a hug. Almost. Account isn't horribly damaged but it's been a crazy week.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2012 14:49:51 GMT -8
Did Jesus Diaz NOT write that Gizmodo review? (He did not.)
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Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 28, 2012 16:16:54 GMT -8
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Post by yellowhandman on Sept 28, 2012 17:16:30 GMT -8
The Cook apology and Google blog about getting their Maps on iPhone 5 are, IMHO, the perfect combination...if one thinks logically. Basically, Apple and Google have both reassured customers that you CAN buy an iPhone 5 and still use Google Maps.
Unfortunately, that's now how the press will spin it. Instead it's "Apple apologises, Google pounces"...
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 28, 2012 18:28:32 GMT -8
Here is Nick Nansen's latest blog . . . nanseninvestments.com/Maximum Pain On Friday for Apple Posted on September 28, 2012
Apple got busted by the Market Makers who control the options market. There was a huge stack of calls that started near 670 and got higher as you headed towards 700. On the put side, they were at the maximum at 670 and were piled pretty high below 670. Guess what, Apple finished the day right under 670 so all those calls and all those puts expired worthless. Hunreds of millions of dollars in the big pockets of the Casino. That’s what the options market is, a Las Vegas Casino that stacks the odds in it’s favor and rakes off it’s take every Friday as hundreds of millions of dollars are transferred from the hands of the young and foolish to the old and rich. You would think the retail buyers of puts and calls would get a clue. This continues endlessly because the young and foolish are repaced by a whole new batch about every 3 months. It’s just like Las Vegas; there is a constant stream of new players eager to get rich quick.
Apple is the most manipulated stock in the market. They like it in the options market because of the huge volume. There are even HFT’s that trade the weekly options. That’s a scary idea, with the wide margins, the HFT’s can really play tricks on people buying and selling options. I talked about how the big bank trading desks and hedge funds like to use their programmed selling programs to manipulate Apple stock from time to time to run the stock down and run your stops and scare you out of your holdings, before they run it back up again. You combine the stock manipulations with the option manipulations and you just shake your head. As a retail investor, you need to understand when and how Apple stock and options will be manipulated. If you don’t know the rules when you sit down to trade Apple, you will be dinner for someone.
Next week, we have a new month, an ipad mini, maybe an imac refresh and earnings. Even Tim Cook can’t screw that up, can he? The apology was a tactical error from a psychological point of view and a marketing point of view. The cold honest truth would have sufficed. Apple is going head to head with Google and the map scuffle was the 1st round. This will get more intense as we move towards open competition with Google. I’m looking for some kind of run into earnings. At this point we still don’t know how robust it will be. I will talk about that more later this weekend.
74% invested in long term spreads and Leaps (3/4 spreads, 1/4 Leaps), 26% Cash
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2012 18:32:42 GMT -8
Easy to condemn/scold after the fact. Dangers abound in the market, but just because you don't like playing the game a certain way doesn't mean the other way is wrong or stupid. (This assumes the baseline that weeklies are tremendously dangerous.) Context, as always, is everything.
Nansen is fine but there's no need to pile on the poor retail investor on a bad day. There was one hell of an uptrend from 570-705 and judicious use of leverage wasn't exactly a bad call then. Clearly shorter-term options are riskier - my new trade is Apr 13, which Nansen may not approve of anyway but who cares what anyone thinks, it's my trade to make - but again, context is key.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 28, 2012 18:50:51 GMT -8
Easy to condemn/scold after the fact. Dangers abound in the market, but just because you don't like playing the game a certain way doesn't mean the other way is wrong or stupid. (This assumes the baseline that weeklies are tremendously dangerous.) Context, as always, is everything. Nansen is fine but there's no need to pile on the poor retail investor on a bad day. There was one hell of an uptrend from 570-705 and judicious use of leverage wasn't exactly a bad call then. Clearly shorter-term options are riskier - my new trade is Apr 13, which Nansen may not approve of anyway but who cares what anyone thinks, it's my trade to make - but again, context is key. I agree about not needing to pile on, but thought it was still useful sharing Nick's thoughts. I am certainly retail and my Apr/Feb calls took a nice beating this week.
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Post by kloot on Sept 28, 2012 19:44:56 GMT -8
We have a new phone that almost everyone says is the best on the planet. It is going to sell in huge numbers and the share price will respond in its own good time. Use the current FUDfest to position for when the sentiment turns. thanks for the new term, "FUDfest". needed a chuckle.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 28, 2012 20:03:25 GMT -8
I am kinda partial to "clusterFUD", but I can go with it
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 28, 2012 20:05:29 GMT -8
I am kinda partial to "clusterFUD", but I can go with it LOVE IT!!!
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Sept 28, 2012 20:54:39 GMT -8
I'm done getting shaken out of my carefully placed BCS every time there is a pullback that hurts, starts cutting into bone, and spikes my fear. I reviewed my past sales on just such occasions and everyone of them would have been very profitable had I just ridden the storm out. The lost opportunity cost of getting shaken out is just too high. So, I used this weeks action to rearrange the furniture in my portfolio. Mitigated some risk by selling my riskiest BCS's, and repositioned those funds into more optimal spreads (same payback, lower strikes). I used the weakness to set up BCS to take advantage of any move from here to $800 between now and April. I have dry powder ready to buy more in the event the sale gets even better. iPhone 5 is a major HIT and AAPL's financial results will be mind blowing. I've been doing this long enough to know better to say this, but I'm as excited as H E double toothpicks about the next 4 to 6 months with AAPL.
I'm learning to think and move nimbly...It's an ever changing landscape...If, then thinking...Thanks Ms. iPad!
AND, one more thing. Jim Cramer can kiss my a&&. I cannot believe the bullish@t he pulled this week. There, I got that off my chest.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 28, 2012 21:27:34 GMT -8
AND, one more thing. Jim Cramer can kiss my a&&. I cannot believe the bullish@t he pulled this week. There, I got that off my chest. icam, you must always remember what he is, a self promoting shill for CNBC which is an arm of NBC. NBC is just plain scary. Their programming is built on fear and angst. Stocks do not move on fundamentals anymore, they move because EO's have the media to scare the sheep and HFT's to maximize any move. Am I scared, you bet. Baaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh They have brought Europe back into the news, how convenient. If what has been done in the US and Europe is not enough we are all in trouble. Here is the fly in the ointment now, Catalonia, one of the wealthiest parts of Spain is talking about independence because they pay a lot in taxes. Check this out, this is a quote from the USA today: "Despite its economic vitality, Catalonia is currently Spain's most indebted region. Recently the government here asked Madrid for $6.2 billion in financial assistance, but not in a loan. The government wanted the money free and clear, saying it belongs to Catalans and was wasted by the Spanish government." Yep, the money was wasted by the government, to funny.
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icam
Member
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Post by icam on Sept 28, 2012 21:56:49 GMT -8
He's also a shill for his Hedge fund buddies and his pals on Wall Street. I would have thought his appearance on the John Stewart show would have done something to stop him, but I guess he's got zero morals and pond scum for a conscience.
Hmmm...good idea. If it works for them, maybe I'll try it. I pay a lot in taxes and my Government just wastes it too. Need to keep an eye on how that one turns out.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 29, 2012 0:55:37 GMT -8
Here is Nick Nansen's latest blog . . . nanseninvestments.com/Maximum Pain On Friday for Apple Posted on September 28, 2012
Apple got busted by the Market Makers who control the options market. There was a huge stack of calls that started near 670 and got higher as you headed towards 700. On the put side, they were at the maximum at 670 and were piled pretty high below 670. Guess what, Apple finished the day right under 670 so all those calls and all those puts expired worthless. Hunreds of millions of dollars in the big pockets of the Casino. That’s what the options market is, a Las Vegas Casino that stacks the odds in it’s favor and rakes off it’s take every Friday as hundreds of millions of dollars are transferred from the hands of the young and foolish to the old and rich. You would think the retail buyers of puts and calls would get a clue. This continues endlessly because the young and foolish are repaced by a whole new batch about every 3 months. It’s just like Las Vegas; there is a constant stream of new players eager to get rich quick.
Apple is the most manipulated stock in the market. They like it in the options market because of the huge volume. There are even HFT’s that trade the weekly options. That’s a scary idea, with the wide margins, the HFT’s can really play tricks on people buying and selling options. I talked about how the big bank trading desks and hedge funds like to use their programmed selling programs to manipulate Apple stock from time to time to run the stock down and run your stops and scare you out of your holdings, before they run it back up again. You combine the stock manipulations with the option manipulations and you just shake your head. As a retail investor, you need to understand when and how Apple stock and options will be manipulated. If you don’t know the rules when you sit down to trade Apple, you will be dinner for someone.
Next week, we have a new month, an ipad mini, maybe an imac refresh and earnings. Even Tim Cook can’t screw that up, can he? The apology was a tactical error from a psychological point of view and a marketing point of view. The cold honest truth would have sufficed. Apple is going head to head with Google and the map scuffle was the 1st round. This will get more intense as we move towards open competition with Google. I’m looking for some kind of run into earnings. At this point we still don’t know how robust it will be. I will talk about that more later this weekend.Great post, agree with it all except he was a little harsh on Cook. Not that I don't truly believe the people responsible for the maps fiasco shouldn't be waterboarded and flogged - I do. I just think there are some less valuable and more responsible minions than TC who should be taken out for a fishing trip like Fredo (ask Mr. Lovey, Lovey). Some of the things he says about the call gambling are spot-on, and I won't elaborate, so as not to offend some of our members. I was busy this PM, so I didn't get to see the final open interest numbers before OCC wipes the ITM's to zero. I e-mailed them to see if I could get them. I'd really like to see those 670 and 675 put numbers. And yes, Jim Cramer needs a cock-punch. Seriously, I am about as free market and anti-regulation as they come, but what that MFer does should be illegal somehow. Then again, if they made stupid illegal, we'd never have enough prisons. What I really think about Jim Cramer. F this week, and yes, bring on the iPad Mini!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 29, 2012 4:28:47 GMT -8
A few things: 1. We all know CNBC sucks - they are sensationalist clowns - they bring things into the spotlight and make a mountain out of a molehill - before you know it - they are televising it as a crisis. Nonetheless - it goes out to millions and gets everyone in a frenzy - infuriating!
2. Catalonia has been threatening succession forever - they are Spaniards. Someday they will wake up to that fact. In the end - another story sensationalized by CNBC. (I am no spring chicken and remember visiting Spain for the first time when I was 6 and it was the topic THEN - many decades ago!) Spaniards have a flair for the dramatic - no one is going anywhere)
3. Anxious to see what the charts tell us about IF, THEN -- in both directions...hopefully iPad will get a moment to share
4. I've been on a few blogs and the sentiment feels like people are so wiped with this price action that they want to throw in the towel...this could potentially be positive. We will see.
5. We keep talking about the iPad mini but I hope in fact it does exist - we don't know this to be fact - just a strong suspicion.
6. I am not so sure TC will announce ANY numbers about global roll out - and I know a few - at least on other threads are hoping desperately for some positive words - I don't think we will get any and so I worry about some capitulation - I may be wrong but the possibility is out there.
7. I wonder if sending an email to one of the CNBC reporters on stock manipulation and the weeklies and Max Pain would hurt or help. I've hesitated because I don't know if there would be negative unforeseen price issues. But I am very tempted.
8. I do t know about everyone else but I am emotionally exhausted after this week - I need a mental health Saturday - glad it's here!
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Post by Lstream on Sept 29, 2012 4:56:37 GMT -8
7. I wonder if sending an email to one of the CNBC reporters on stock manipulation and the weeklies and Max Pain would hurt or help. I've hesitated because I don't know if there would be negative unforeseen price issues. But I am very tempted. I think if you did this, and they did a story, it would be turned into another hit piece on Apple, rather than the underlying problem. Remember, their goal is not to report on facts or truth. It is to generate viewership and page hits. Smashing Apple is a tried and true formula. I can see the story now. It would be spun as one more reason to avoid an Apple investment. Now instead of just Mapgate, Cook is no Jobs, law of large numbers, Android market share, there is a brand new fear that affects your Apple investment. Stock manipulators who prey on Apple retail investors.So expect CNBC to behave in the most irresponsible way possible when thinking about this. That will likely give them too much credit.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 29, 2012 6:00:42 GMT -8
Yep - and that is the perfect reason to mind my own damn business and let things be. Unintended consequences always seem to be the result of good intentions. I will just go about my day.
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Post by ccs on Sept 29, 2012 6:20:14 GMT -8
Man you guys do sound wiped. My account is bruised as well but not broken. I'll have more funds available Monday and will wait until trend confirmation to deploy into APR or JUL calls. May hedge with spreads - probably not. I (along with many here) see WAY too much upside in the next 4-6 months. Not gonna touch my core leaps.
Taking the kids to soccer now on a beautiful fall day. Gonna watch them run around in their brightly colored uniforms knowing their college educations are paid for. Thanks Apple.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 29, 2012 7:10:54 GMT -8
My neighbors are going to the land of Oktoberfest on Monday.
This week will be the time re-evaluate trading strategy and get house projects done before earnings season starts.
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Post by v10king on Sept 29, 2012 8:48:29 GMT -8
Easy to condemn/scold after the fact. Dangers abound in the market, but just because you don't like playing the game a certain way doesn't mean the other way is wrong or stupid. (This assumes the baseline that weeklies are tremendously dangerous.) Context, as always, is everything. Nansen is fine but there's no need to pile on the poor retail investor on a bad day. There was one hell of an uptrend from 570-705 and judicious use of leverage wasn't exactly a bad call then. Clearly shorter-term options are riskier - my new trade is Apr 13, which Nansen may not approve of anyway but who cares what anyone thinks, it's my trade to make - but again, context is key. I agree about not needing to pile on, but thought it was still useful sharing Nick's thoughts. I am certainly retail and my Apr/Feb calls took a nice beating this week. Please don't stop posting Nansen comments, I find his insight great. I have been a regular follower of his blog for quite some time.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 29, 2012 9:17:23 GMT -8
Man you guys do sound wiped. My account is bruised as well but not broken. I'll have more funds available Monday and will wait until trend confirmation to deploy into APR or JUL calls. May hedge with spreads - probably not. I (along with many here) see WAY too much upside in the next 4-6 months. Not gonna touch my core leaps. Taking the kids to soccer now on a beautiful fall day. Gonna watch them run around in their brightly colored uniforms knowing their college educations are paid for. Thanks Apple. When I look at all my realized gains - well, it's embarrassing to be complaining about AAPL. But you must admit that the swings this week were tantamount to a drive-by shooting. I mean, here we have the greatest launch ever for anyone or anything and somehow it becomes a negative -- for whatever reason sensationalized by bloggers, press, and media -- and then receive an apology from the CEO. Price action was a roller coaster -- actually more like the Coney Island Cyclone Ride. You can't say that you aren't somewhat bummed. I would have NEVER thought that immediately after this launch we would have found a week of news and fluctuations like we had. Time to move on - just glad I have time this weekend to reflect and then... move forward.
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Post by appledoc on Sept 29, 2012 9:22:31 GMT -8
When do the March options open up?
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Post by sponge on Sept 29, 2012 9:23:28 GMT -8
Get ready for a repeat from last year. We went to 426 right after the iPhone 4S came out and then corrected to 363 a 13% drop a month later.
Given the manipulation we could hit 750 post earnings and then see sub 680 again.
I think the dividend will provide some support that we did not have last year.
I love my iPhone 5. Everytime I look at it and play with I know I will be rich.
Buy and Hold
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