Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 9:28:23 GMT -8
I personally find Nansen to have too strong a point of view now and then, but you can his post his posts all day long as long as he doesn't mind the copypasta (my bet is he doesn't) and as long as reasonable comment can be made on his opinion just like anyone else's.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 9:32:50 GMT -8
Careful Sponge. LEAPs are mildly removed from buy and hold since they expire at some point. But yeah, +1 on the drown out the noise. I bought the dip and I see no reason not to stay the course. Just a little while longer be4 I can order a 5...
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Post by sponge on Sept 29, 2012 9:47:01 GMT -8
Careful Sponge. LEAPs are mildly removed from buy and hold since they expire at some point. But yeah, +1 on the drown out the noise. I bought the dip and I see no reason not to stay the course. Just a little while longer be4 I can order a 5... Correct about LEAPS. They only make up less then 10% of my portfolio. The rest is common stock. The iPhone 5 is amazing and it will sell well for 12 months until the 5S comes out.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 29, 2012 10:24:46 GMT -8
And almost on cue, the minions begin to be taken out to the woodshed:
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 29, 2012 10:59:44 GMT -8
The iPhone 5 is amazing and it will sell well for 12 months until the 5S comes out. and I want to hear some sales predictions, estimates. Can they sell all they produce? If so, how many can they produce?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 11:11:38 GMT -8
IMHO, it's not Apple...it's the broader market. Every index chart --SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM -- has the same pattern as AAPL. If everything had gone perfectly with the launch, we *still* would have tanked this week, only we would have chalked it up as "sell the (good) news profit-taking."
There comes a point in every uptrend when the crowd's sentiment shifts from greed (of wanting more) to fear (of protecting what you have). It will shift back...it always does.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 11:21:52 GMT -8
IMHO, it's not Apple...it's the broader market. Every chart -- index or equity -- is showing the same pattern as AAPL. If everything had gone perfectly with the launch, we *still* would have tanked this week, only we would have chalked it up as "sell the (good) news profit-taking." There comes a point in every uptrend when the crowd's sentiment shifts from greed (of wanting more) to fear (of protecting what you have). It will shift back...it always does. Disagree as to certain stocks. AAPL reached the inflection point and "missed." A lot of what followed is "convenient cover"/broader market, but iPad, don't overlook performers that ended up positive this week. GOOG. LVS. Even IBM.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 11:39:48 GMT -8
Disagree as to certain stocks. AAPL reached the inflection point and "missed." A lot of what followed is "convenient cover"/broader market, but iPad, don't overlook performers that ended up positive this week. GOOG. LVS. Even IBM. Mav, you're right. I just looked at other stocks. I will edit to say indices. AAPL's chart absolutely mirrors those. It will be interesting to see this week what happens to those stocks that showed relative strength last week.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 29, 2012 11:41:15 GMT -8
IMHO, it's not Apple...it's the broader market. Every chart -- index or equity -- is showing the same pattern as AAPL. If everything had gone perfectly with the launch, we *still* would have tanked this week, only we would have chalked it up as "sell the (good) news profit-taking." There comes a point in every uptrend when the crowd's sentiment shifts from greed (of wanting more) to fear (of protecting what you have). It will shift back...it always does. This makes sense, especially since we never really got a big drop after the announcement and everyone was expecting it then.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 11:48:24 GMT -8
This makes sense, especially since we never really got a big drop after the announcement and everyone was expecting it then. You did get a sign. 700 >> just over 690 on Monday was a change in composure.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Sept 29, 2012 12:07:37 GMT -8
IMHO, it's not Apple...it's the broader market. Every index chart --SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM -- has the same pattern as AAPL. If everything had gone perfectly with the launch, we *still* would have tanked this week, only we would have chalked it up as "sell the (good) news profit-taking." There comes a point in every uptrend when the crowd's sentiment shifts from greed (of wanting more) to fear (of protecting what you have). It will shift back...it always does. +3.14 Thank you for the very reasonable post, Ms. Mod. There was a lot of angst, worry, concern and disappointment expressed on the intra-day thread this week as our favorite fruit faded for no apparent reason (not that I added anything to the discussion at all, but I did read most of it). Completely understandable and I too felt my usual queasiness as we dropped a lot, but what-are-you-gonna-do? Ultimately, last week's anxiety was like standing on the shore and getting upset about the tide going out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2012 13:11:12 GMT -8
And almost on cue, the minions begin to be taken out to the woodshed: I disagree, Apple needs this type of guy near the top, someone willing to take risks, willing to ruffle feathers. That the media don't seem to like him sounds very reminiscent of how people thought about Steve Jobs during the 80s/90s.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 13:14:42 GMT -8
Shufflepost™ (to this page) And almost on cue, the minions begin to be taken out to the woodshed: There can be no doubt that Dalrymple isn't a big fan of Forstall. Nor Fortune, nor Bloomberg/Busineweek. Utterly overblown BS. And even if Forstall left Apple, there's plenty of other BSD UNIX-based geniuses within Apple to carry the banner of OS X/iOS. To blame Forstall over Siri when it is one of the best implementations of this nascent technology for smartphones is over the top, but hey, PED used to be an Apple skeptic after all. EDIT: I'm fine with PED, it's just that he occasionally does stuff like this.I should add, if you connect a few data points and unauthorized-to-speak-publicly sources and claim to have completed a grand tapestry (I mean, follow the "Forstall is kinda a power-hungry maybe-conniving guy" argument to its logical conclusion), Forstall has been an overambitious boil on the behind of Apple since 1997. Apple sure has done well despite the creep, hasn't it.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 29, 2012 13:38:40 GMT -8
And almost on cue, the minions begin to be taken out to the woodshed: I disagree, Apple needs this type of guy near the top, someone willing to take risks, willing to ruffle feathers. That the media don't seem to like him sounds very reminiscent of how people thought about Steve Jobs during the 80s/90s. They need a guy that will shoot for the sky a la Siri, but they also need someone to get details right. I did some checking on that PED article and the guy who is referenced is right. There are entire towns missing in Ontario. Google and Nokia both find the one I played around with. And the shocker for me, is that even my Tom Tom app finds it. How does that make any sense? I thought Tom Tom was the data partner. Someone made a serious mess on this data stuff. They need to be in the woodshed.
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Post by johng on Sept 29, 2012 15:10:35 GMT -8
They need a guy that will shoot for the sky a la Siri, but they also need someone to get details right. I did some checking on that PED article and the guy who is referenced is right. There are entire towns missing in Ontario. Google and Nokia both find the one I played around with. And the shocker for me, is that even my Tom Tom app finds it. How does that make any sense? I thought Tom Tom was the data partner. Someone made a serious mess on this data stuff. They need to be in the woodshed. Yeah, that makes no sense at all. This data fiasco really is embarrassing for the co and shareholders. Worst F-up in 10+ years. cheers JohnG
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 15:14:31 GMT -8
The same way Apple released an unfinished public beta called OS X 10.0 to an unsuspecting public! I mean, this was gonna be the future of everything non-iPod! And this was a buggy, slow, completely-different _OS_, not just an app! And it broke VirtualPC! What the hell was Apple thinking?Oh wait. That was 11 years ago.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 15:17:03 GMT -8
Welcome, deasys!
Familiar faces continue to register at our new home on the web.
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Post by roni on Sept 29, 2012 15:43:22 GMT -8
I am not a big Forstall fan
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 29, 2012 19:42:13 GMT -8
Mav, all due respect, enough bullshit - this is an epic F-up. Apple Computer got nowhere near the media attention in 2001 it does now that it is Apple Ubiquity Inc. Tim Cook can't fart in an elevator in Taipei without Jay Yarrow reporting it and getting 56 retweets on Twitter. This was a PR nightmare. The $AAPL twitter feed was getting around 1000 tweets an hour for two days after this broke, most of which centered around this, instead of how it's the most awesome phone ever and sold over 5M in a weekend. The mainstream and financial media obsessed on it, and even late-night comedians were ridiculing it. Blowing it off as nothing is just being too Pollyanna-ish. Or did you not see the AAPL stock print this week? With that said, it's an early unforced error. Apple got its serve broken like Pete Sampras in the first game of the first set of a best-of-5 first-round match at the US Open. Time to charge back and win the first set (that never happened, BTW, Pete had the best serve ever). Apple will come back. But this is INEXCUSABLE from a company like Apple, which is why the CEO apologized for it - and why I'm sure he is likely chewing ass at 1 Infinite Loop like a pit-bull on a poodle. The same way Apple released an unfinished public beta called OS X 10.0 to an unsuspecting public! I mean, this was gonna be the future of everything non-iPod! And this was a buggy, slow, completely-different _OS_, not just an app! And it broke VirtualPC! What the hell was Apple thinking?Oh wait. That was 11 years ago.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 20:15:13 GMT -8
Y'know, I did say "Apple did fall flat on its face PR-wise" in the Maps topic.
On Wednesday, I said: "Maps needs work. Lots of it. Some of my own informal navigation testing has been decidedly mixed (using my 4S). Let Apple be motivated by the embarrassment and the competition giving it a hard time for its foibles. Consumers win in the end."
So...just because I don't think of it as an epic F-up (because I personally define that as forcing me to sell the position and not revisit for a while - show of hands who did that due to Mapgate?) doesn't mean I'm blowing it off as nothing.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 29, 2012 20:46:47 GMT -8
+1 Mav. Until there are iOS products gathering dust on shore shelves, I won't be too worried. BTW, worked flawlessly in the hills of Ten. today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 20:50:08 GMT -8
Maps has major flaws. It told me to careen off a highway during one test and would've probably overshot the destination by one street in another.
But Maps, while a faceplant PR moment (and crappy in some ways, like how some dedicated GPS units are), is not iOS 6 is not iPhone 5. Apple has to be much more careful, but media backlash and customer goodwill are not the same quantities, fortunately.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 30, 2012 0:37:05 GMT -8
I hope you're all kidding with your worries about maps. Who gives a f*** really...it will have tiny impact on sales. "Antennagate" was WAYYYYYYYYY bigger than this. Way worse. Wayyyyyyy worse. Yet the iPhone 4 crushed every competitor in sight. Maps is pretty much irrelevant if you ask me. Did Apple handle it well? To be honest, I don't really care. Anyone caught up in this idiocy is wasting their time. It's irrelevant.
What has been very clear for the past few years is that Apple doesn't need to have the "best" phone to radically increase sales every year. Apple has a real ecosystem. No other company does. iPhones will sell like crazy as the mobile internet continues to grow almost regardless of what phone they put out. Now, of course they put out a really good phone every year. But all this nitpicking is retarded. Apple could put out a phone that is 80% as "good" as its top competitor and it will still sell like crazy. That's a fact, and it is proven every year when iPhone continues to (roughly) double even in the face of other phones that have more cores and whatever other crap they have that iPhone doesn't. It just doesn't matter. Maps doesn't matter. None of this crap matters. In 2-3 years when mobile internet growth around the world begins to slow and stagnate we can worry about this crap. For now, it's completely pointless because it doesn't matter.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 30, 2012 3:40:02 GMT -8
Lots happening this week....
Courtesy of Lutz over at Stifel Nicholas:
Chinese Markets closed for Golden Week Central Bank Decisions from Aussie, BOE, ECB and BOJ Big Ben speaks, and the Minutes from the September meeting Global PMI Data – China, EU, UK, USA September Auto Sales and Retailer Same Store Sales US and EU Employment reports A Big Spanish Bond Auction Value Investing Conference – Major HF speakers European Banking Authority - final report on capital plans The First debate between Gov. Romney and President Obama
The biggies are: Monday Global PMI Wed: ADP report AND first Presidential debate Thurs: Initial Claims Number and Fed Gov. Bullard speaks in the evening (it can be a non-event or the press will have a field day) Fri: September Jobs report
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 30, 2012 4:37:30 GMT -8
Phoebes, see Chart Stuff thread...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 30, 2012 4:51:31 GMT -8
Maps has major flaws. It told me to careen off a highway during one test and would've probably overshot the destination by one street in another. But Maps, while a faceplant PR moment (and crappy in some ways, like how some dedicated GPS units are), is not iOS 6 is not iPhone 5. Apple has to be much more careful, but media backlash and customer goodwill are not the same quantities, fortunately. Maps is a major screw up. The test will be where maps is six months from now. JD is right as to this being only a service break in a long match. What Apple now does is key. Tim's apology tells me the company is not in denial and will step up. But just how did this happen, or was allowed to happen? A look within is certainly needed...
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Post by appledoc on Sept 30, 2012 5:49:50 GMT -8
A testy bunch, aren't we?
I understand what the commotion is about. But come on guys. A map fail, even on this level, is not going to cause irreparable harm to Apple.
The Wifi difficulties seem to me to be a more troublesome issue...
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 30, 2012 6:18:30 GMT -8
Additionally: Lots happening this week.... Monday Afternoon after close: On the second day of the quarter, Apple usually announces earnings release date. (October 16 or 23) my guess 23rd along with AT&T Tuesday: Apple announces event for following week? ( iPad Mini ?) I hope not! Wednesday: Evening debate thingy on TV (possible dungeon discussion area?)
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 30, 2012 6:31:20 GMT -8
HIP, HIP, HOORAY!
Sleepygeek is here!!!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 30, 2012 6:46:14 GMT -8
Man you guys do sound wiped. My account is bruised as well but not broken. I'll have more funds available Monday and will wait until trend confirmation to deploy into APR or JUL calls. May hedge with spreads - probably not. I (along with many here) see WAY too much upside in the next 4-6 months. Not gonna touch my core leaps. Taking the kids to soccer now on a beautiful fall day. Gonna watch them run around in their brightly colored uniforms knowing their college educations are paid for. Thanks Apple. When I look at all my realized gains - well, it's embarrassing to be complaining about AAPL. But you must admit that the swings this week were tantamount to a drive-by shooting. I mean, here we have the greatest launch ever for anyone or anything and somehow it becomes a negative -- for whatever reason sensationalized by bloggers, press, and media -- and then receive an apology from the CEO. Price action was a roller coaster -- actually more like the Coney Island Cyclone Ride. You can't say that you aren't somewhat bummed. I would have NEVER thought that immediately after this launch we would have found a week of news and fluctuations like we had. Time to move on - just glad I have time this weekend to reflect and then... move forward. Check out the two weeks before the Oct. '11 earnings call. Two weeks before, we had swings of about 40 points or so daily (going off of memory), and this included launch of IPhone 4S and then Steve's passing (and when my nephew in LA texts me on my IPhone that he had died, I was thinking "holy crap, tomorrow is going to be ugly"). But it's always darkest before the dawn. I was down then about $150K from just a week earlier, and was a bit nervous hoping for the best. However, the day after his passing, we dipped but then rallied, and over the next six says the stock hit an ATH around 422. My account was $100K positive, about $250K higher than a week earlier. The point here is that, this is just part of the turf. AAPL is the most manipulated stock out there, and we know funny things usually happen on Friday. [You can make money trading around those funny things on 5 point swings, you just don't get too big trading around; I go with 1 or 2 calls - both long and short - and I can pick up a couple hundred each way, and at the end of the day you're up a grand.] But no matter how low it goes (even in May when things looked so gloomy) it does rebound and continue to set new ATHs. That isn't going to change anytime soon. I am going to predict another 'red dog reversal" this week, or announcement of invitations for the IPhone mini event. This will get us back to 700. But I am also wary that we might peak on October 10, as this has happened the last two earnings (April 10 and July 10), so I will lighten my load by then. Good luck all.
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