Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 12:12:20 GMT -8
A nice, quiet, steady bullish week. And after almost two months, a weekly close over 500. I'll take it!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2013 12:25:41 GMT -8
But I thought it was a Monthly options today with massive amounts of 500 calls? Did Max Pain fail us again? Or do we only talk about Max Pain when we're down on Friday, not up??
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 12:28:47 GMT -8
Not sure where you're going with this. For my part, I use OI as a sentiment tool, not a crutch.
Some months, you have a 500.00 pin (Jan 13).
Some months, sentiment prevails over psychology. OTOH, OI range _was_ 500-510, and it's a plain fact that whatever "breakout" AAPL is involved in, it's not exactly the one you might expect from a multi-week consolidation or a reversal pattern trigger. And hey, wasn't there a golden cross not long ago too?
Still great technically, just not TSLA.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 18, 2013 13:18:17 GMT -8
But I thought it was a Monthly options today with massive amounts of 500 calls? Did Max Pain fail us again? Or do we only talk about Max Pain when we're down on Friday, not up?? Are you 14 years old? "Nah nah nah, max pain failed!" Sure, I'll talk about it. Options losing their influence over AAPL is a good thing. It is bullish. I hate pain and pinning. I wish pain and pinning would go away forever. As well childish people that come on the board and make a bullish week into a negative because they are more excited about scoring points on the board instead of in their brokerage acct. Cheers to the longs.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2013 13:21:38 GMT -8
I've decided that Apple's event on Tuesday isn't going to have announcements on the scale of OSX Mavericks or iPhone 5S/C. This is going to cause a small, but short, selloff.
So, I've already placed a sell order for the OCT Week 4 BCS contracts I bought today. If they haven't sold by 3:30 PM on Monday I will adjust to get out of them. After the event I'll be looking at NOV Week 2 contracts.
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Post by sponge on Oct 18, 2013 13:29:07 GMT -8
Just like clock work I expect a selloff of some kind on Tuesday. I will buy some weeklies that day and join Gregg in this gambling enterprise. Great week. Still hope to see 520 by Monday the 28th.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 18, 2013 13:53:06 GMT -8
Just like clock work I expect a selloff of some kind on Tuesday. I will buy some weeklies that day and join Gregg in this gambling enterprise. Great week. Still hope to see 520 by Monday the 28th. Like the rest of you degenerates, I'll hit the tables next week as well. 525 by ER. Has a mini-GOOG "pop" to 550 after earnings.
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Post by sponge on Oct 18, 2013 13:55:46 GMT -8
Just like clock work I expect a selloff of some kind on Tuesday. I will buy some weeklies that day and join Gregg in this gambling enterprise. Great week. Still hope to see 520 by Monday the 28th. Like the rest of you degenerates, I'll hit the tables next week as well. 525 by ER. Has a mini-GOOG "pop" to 550 after earnings. LOL I expect a 6-10% with another 6-8% move two weeks later.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 14:00:59 GMT -8
What exactly do you mean not on the same scale as iPhone?
NOTHING will be on that scale for the foreseeable future, maybe ever. Not iPad, not a TV, not iWatch. Simple revenue mix and market size.
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Post by rickag on Oct 18, 2013 14:31:59 GMT -8
What exactly do you mean not on the same scale as iPhone? NOTHING will be on that scale for the foreseeable future, maybe ever. Not iPad, not a TV, not iWatch. Simple revenue mix and market size. iHub. The pieces are slowly coming together. The big one being extra WIFI bandwidth using the latest protocols, and Bluetooth 4. Peripheral devises like Nest, IOS for your auto, home lighting, wireless door locks, etc. The ecosystem, iPhone, iPad, iCloud, iTunes, iTV. Oh and iBeacon for your home. The 64 bit Arm SoC, this is huge. Imagine a scaled down MacPro, heck it is smaller than a letter sized sheet of paper in height and width. Imagine an A8X or A9X in a 4 core and/or multiprocessor configuration, SSD drive. Everything syncs including your auto in the garage. Walk in your home and ask,"Siri, it's too hot in here, I'd like to watch the news.". Instantly the news selections appear on screen and Nest remembers your favorite room temperature. Go to the den and ask,"Siri, I want to play World of Warcraft", your dumb terminal activates and starts the game at your last save point. In the kitchen you ask, "Siri, got any good quick Chinese recipes?", another dumb terminal or your iPad pulls up a selection (curtesy of iBeacon, Siri knows you have your iPad next to you) of recipes. It's coming, who do you think will have the best system and ecosystem?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 14:41:10 GMT -8
Grand scheme, OK.
Actual $$, I'm not sold on any _set_ of Apple products/services outselling iPhone for many quarters at least.
I'm all for new product categories and supercharged sentiment. But iPhone brings home the iBacon.
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Post by rickag on Oct 18, 2013 14:44:21 GMT -8
Grand scheme, OK. Actual $$, I'm not sold on any _set_ of Apple products/services outselling iPhone for many quarters at least. I'm all for new product categories and supercharged sentiment. But iPhone brings home the iBacon. I can dream big sometimes, 😄
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 18, 2013 14:54:37 GMT -8
Just like clock work I expect a selloff of some kind on Tuesday. I will buy some weeklies that day and join Gregg in this gambling enterprise. Great week. Still hope to see 520 by Monday the 28th. Like the rest of you degenerates, I'll hit the tables next week as well. 525 by ER. Has a mini-GOOG "pop" to 550 after earnings. Can you get rid of that picture of Sponge you are using for an avatar. It gives me the willies..
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Post by rickag on Oct 18, 2013 14:56:31 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 18, 2013 14:58:03 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 15:14:50 GMT -8
AAPL 575 weeklies for earnings baby! (Uh, no)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 15:15:49 GMT -8
Red, you should thank Raffi. He's why gold is best. I mean, selling so well.
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Post by sponge on Oct 18, 2013 15:40:15 GMT -8
Red, you should thank Raffi. He's why gold is best. I mean, selling so well. That's ok with the pic. I want to show a before and after, once I trim down. ;D That damn gold is still hard to find.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 18, 2013 17:05:07 GMT -8
Institutions are guilty of groupthink, content as they are buying GOOG at these ridiculous levels. Seriously, if there were valid reasons to bet so heavy on GOOG here, the memo would have leaked out from somewhere. All we get are dumb bunnies in the media "explaining" GOOG with the same sort of glib commentary you'd hear from astrologers. Has anyone seen any kind of rational thinking justifying the unbridled enthusiasm for Google's future? Yep, not a peep about "OMG BUBBLE! LAW OF BIG NUMBERS DERP DERP!" like there was about Apple @ $700. I seriously doubt the vast majority of investors - institutional or retail - realize what I referred to yesterday, i.e., Google's business model is selling ads on desktop PC's, mobile is killing desktops, Google makes much less on mobile, and Apple makes much more on mobile. But these deep-thinkers look at Google and see no realistic competitor in the ad space, so Google can't lose. And Apple has lots of competitors in the mobile space, so they can't win. This is what passes for fundamental analysis that values Google twice as highly as Apple (4X if you look at P/E, which obviously investors do not). But the opposite is true. What their tiny reptilian brains cannot see is that Google's competitor is mobile, more specifically, Samsung. Every Android phone search that takes away a desktop search is a massive cannibalization of profit. Android is like a Vichy collaborator in WWII. Nice posts from both of you.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 18, 2013 17:13:52 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Oct 18, 2013 18:55:11 GMT -8
Baby, baby (RIP biggie smalls)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2013 19:02:39 GMT -8
Would we even be having this discussion if iPhone 5 were price-dropped to the $99 tier? Probably not. Anyway, I'd prefer to hear from Tim himself before extrapolating from supply chain data rumors. Worst case scenario (which I doubt), iPhone 5C becomes the iPad 2 equivalent of the iPhone lineup. And last I checked, iPad 2 is still being sold.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2013 21:57:36 GMT -8
Yep, not a peep about "OMG BUBBLE! LAW OF BIG NUMBERS DERP DERP!" like there was about Apple @ $700. I seriously doubt the vast majority of investors - institutional or retail - realize what I referred to yesterday, i.e., Google's business model is selling ads on desktop PC's, mobile is killing desktops, Google makes much less on mobile, and Apple makes much more on mobile. But these deep-thinkers look at Google and see no realistic competitor in the ad space, so Google can't lose. And Apple has lots of competitors in the mobile space, so they can't win. This is what passes for fundamental analysis that values Google twice as highly as Apple (4X if you look at P/E, which obviously investors do not). But the opposite is true. What their tiny reptilian brains cannot see is that Google's competitor is mobile, more specifically, Samsung. Every Android phone search that takes away a desktop search is a massive cannibalization of profit. Android is like a Vichy collaborator in WWII. What many here don't recognize is that Google owns several high profile web sites, and they are slowly monetizing them with embedded ads. YouTube is probably their biggest. Google doesn't have to share that ad revenue with the site's owner, because they are the owner, which makes these sites even more profitable. Secondly, revenue from these owned sites is not dependent on search, Google's traditional revenue source.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 19, 2013 2:12:49 GMT -8
I had a dream that AAPL had bought Waze, Netflix, and Twitter. Game, set, match. So many here would disagree but it was MY dream and made ME smile for a few minutes. Oh well...off to realty...
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Post by jmolloy on Oct 19, 2013 5:00:11 GMT -8
I had a dream that AAPL had bought Waze, Netflix, and Twitter. Game, set, match. So many here would disagree but it was MY dream and made ME smile for a few minutes. Oh well...off to realty... It's a great dream, unfortunately haven't Google bought WAZE?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 19, 2013 6:20:38 GMT -8
Yes they did - and I was one of only two people here that thought it was a big deal. Anyway - in my dream, AAPL bought them.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 8:31:44 GMT -8
Netflix - cheaper to partner than to buy. Apple already has content deals network? Netflix not so popular with some content providers, would make an Apple television content play tougher? OK state of affairs as long as Netflix isn't bought out by a competitor?
Waze - we'll see what Google does with it. They're not the only map-type company on the block. Apple needs more accurate maps and directions first anyway
Twitter - with a successful IPO/business strategy Twitter can just be "neutral" like FB. Both offer fine experiences on iOS + integration.
Netflix/Twitter buyout, IMHO, would bring huge regulatory headaches. I mean, look at the witchhunt by the DOJ over friggin' ebooks. No guarantees the buyouts would happen - I thought I remembered the AT&T/T-mo merger being thought of as a "done deal" once upon a time.
Just having a friendly discussion of course.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2013 9:22:34 GMT -8
Netflix - cheaper to partner than to buy. Apple already has content deals network? Netflix not so popular with some content providers, would make an Apple television content play tougher? OK state of affairs as long as Netflix isn't bought out by a competitor? Waze - we'll see what Google does with it. They're not the only map-type company on the block. Apple needs more accurate maps and directions first anyway Twitter - with a successful IPO/business strategy Twitter can just be "neutral" like FB. Both offer fine experiences on iOS + integration. Netflix/Twitter buyout, IMHO, would bring huge regulatory headaches. I mean, look at the witchhunt by the DOJ over friggin' ebooks. No guarantees the buyouts would happen - I thought I remembered the AT&T/T-mo merger being thought of as a "done deal" once upon a time. Just having a friendly discussion of course. That's a merger that should have been approved. Without the iPhone T-Mobile was doomed. In the interim the "public good" was not served.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 19, 2013 11:35:44 GMT -8
Yep, not a peep about "OMG BUBBLE! LAW OF BIG NUMBERS DERP DERP!" like there was about Apple @ $700. I seriously doubt the vast majority of investors - institutional or retail - realize what I referred to yesterday, i.e., Google's business model is selling ads on desktop PC's, mobile is killing desktops, Google makes much less on mobile, and Apple makes much more on mobile. But these deep-thinkers look at Google and see no realistic competitor in the ad space, so Google can't lose. And Apple has lots of competitors in the mobile space, so they can't win. This is what passes for fundamental analysis that values Google twice as highly as Apple (4X if you look at P/E, which obviously investors do not). But the opposite is true. What their tiny reptilian brains cannot see is that Google's competitor is mobile, more specifically, Samsung. Every Android phone search that takes away a desktop search is a massive cannibalization of profit. Android is like a Vichy collaborator in WWII. What many here don't recognize is that Google owns several high profile web sites, and they are slowly monetizing them with embedded ads. YouTube is probably their biggest. Google doesn't have to share that ad revenue with the site's owner, because they are the owner, which makes these sites even more profitable. Secondly, revenue from these owned sites is not dependent on search, Google's traditional revenue source. I'd love to see any evidence that YouTube with its enormous infrastructure requirements is so profitable on the Web, let alone on mobile, where YouTube is watched on an App and ads are still a nascent business model. Before Google bought YouTube, I recall all the articles asking how the hell YouTube could turn a profit. Intuitively, I'd much rather be a third party advertiser on a video website than have to add 10,000 hard drives a day in my server farms to accommodate the storage, not to mention the bandwidth costs. Of course, Google's revenue breakdown by individual services is as opaque as chocolate oatmeal stout, so we have no way of really knowing. Regardless, PC's and the Web are dying. Mobile and apps are the foreseeable future. I earlier gave a citation showing mobile ad rates are 1/5 of desktops. I can't say for sure that Google won't somehow monetize mobile as well as it did desktop, but so far I have not seen any evidence suggesting that it has, let alone any justifying GOOG's one-year chart.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 12:01:15 GMT -8
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