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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 19, 2013 12:19:57 GMT -8
MacDailyNews response to the FUD on rumored 5c cutbacks :
' MacDailyNews Take: Anyone, other than Tim Cook, Phil Schiller or Peter Oppenheimer, who calls iPhone 5c “disappointing†is an idiot. Nobody outside of those three has the data to make such a determination.
We’re going to make this so simple that even a Droid settler might be be able to understand:
Without knowing how many units Apple made prior to launch, you cannot infer anything – good or bad – based on limited “channel checks†of production orders at this point. You simply do not have enough data to gauge the success of iPhone 5c – or iPhone 5s for that matter.
The following numbers are made up. The actual numbers do not matter. They are for illustrative purposes only:
If Apple made 8 million 5c units upfront, sold 6 million in the first week, then adjusted future production based on that data and Apple also made 3 million 5s units upfront, but sold 3 million in stores and received 3 million online orders in the first week, then adjusted future production based on that data, which iPhone model sold the most units?
I would suggest it’s good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. – Apple CEO Tim Cook, Q113 conference call with analysts, January 23, 203'
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2013 12:24:27 GMT -8
Classic. The reality is that GOOG has pimped all of its customers. They've monetized humans, so on to dinosaurs!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 19, 2013 12:30:16 GMT -8
It's early but for all you masochists and sadists ( I.e., pain lovers) here is Monday weekly look from Travis. Very bullish.....if you believe in such things....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 12:34:49 GMT -8
Not seeing the bullishness from that OI chart, unless a bunch of those call sellers at 500 get spooked by continued AAPL strength on Monday (provided we get it, which I think we will) start covering and bringing down the call wall on their own. Is that what you're hinting at?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 19, 2013 13:13:28 GMT -8
Not seeing the bullishness from that OI chart, unless a bunch of those call sellers at 500 get spooked by continued AAPL strength on Monday (provided we get it, which I think we will) start covering and bringing down the call wall on their own. Is that what you're hinting at? If an Oct monthly OpEx couldn't handle sentiment, weeklies will have even less influence with an iPad event and earnings looming.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2013 14:02:15 GMT -8
It's early but for all you masochists and sadists ( I.e., pain lovers) here is Monday weekly look from Travis. Very bullish.....if you believe in such things.... I have no idea which Weekly Travis' chart portrays. It certainly does not match OI numbers for OCT Week 4 as depicted by OptionsXpress.
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Post by infohunter on Oct 19, 2013 16:03:55 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2013 18:58:53 GMT -8
Isn't there a politics thread?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2013 19:04:09 GMT -8
Yes, and kindly take politics and tax talk to the appropriate threads...
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2013 19:15:59 GMT -8
I didn't truly venture into Sour Grapes Land until it cleared 1000. From that point on, my face was liable to freeze in a permanent pucker.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 19:23:52 GMT -8
I didn't truly venture into Sour Grapes Land until it cleared 1000. From that point on, my face was liable to freeze in a permanent pucker. It was a long-odds bet. Really, really long odds. Throw a few thousand at AAPL 575 weeklies at earnings and I'm sure the urge to play that kind of Casino Royale game will go away half an hour after market close. Right along with the few thousand. ;D
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Post by nagrani on Oct 19, 2013 19:50:54 GMT -8
Tim Cook is all about magic, energy and love but don't forget this guy probably knows the perception when google doubles. This might have some added benefit for apple - in terms of their approach to managing the stock price.
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Post by capablanca on Oct 19, 2013 20:04:55 GMT -8
The margin story is out there, but very much under-reported. iPhone margins are better than iPad; 5c Margins are better than 5. 5s margins are likely better than either, even with the cost of A7. iPhone sales are up more than iPad; 5s sales are hotter than 5c. Expect a margin beat on the 29th and good margin guidance for FYQ1.
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Post by capablanca on Oct 19, 2013 20:07:16 GMT -8
Apologies to all for my infrequent participation, but from what I have read, this line from JD is the best of the week:
Android is like a Vichy collaborator in WWII.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 20:19:35 GMT -8
The potential for a margin beat is there, but the "glory days" are behind us now IMHO. I wouldn't expect more than low 40s absolute max this fiscal year, and Oppenheimer would have to guide near 39% first. Mid/high 30s is still great (just makes for lousy compares from a peak at 47%) and Apple is still cost-efficient enough to very competitive in the markets it chooses to play in.
We'll see if the current iPhones can, or are even intended to, boost profitability much from the 36ish% range. Just as long as margins stabilize, revenue growth can take care of the rest. (Can't wait for China Mobile. ;D)
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Post by sponge on Oct 19, 2013 21:29:42 GMT -8
Mav
I took a look at your blog and your estimate for 4th quarter. Good analysis, but still too conservative for me. If we get anything above 36.5 billon we will be cleared for take off. I except 37.8 billion and a 8% move as a result.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 19, 2013 21:30:15 GMT -8
I didn't truly venture into Sour Grapes Land until it cleared 1000. From that point on, my face was liable to freeze in a permanent pucker. It was a long-odds bet. Really, really long odds. Throw a few thousand at AAPL 575 weeklies at earnings and I'm sure the urge to play that kind of Casino Royale game will go away half an hour after market close. Right along with the few thousand. ;D Yeah, but do GOOG's options have the same IV before earnings as AAPL's? Question: What if one had put $1000 on GOOG calls and puts? You could have done that for 23 straight quarters, and at worst, broken even. And I can think of worse things than the lovely and talented Lovey puckerin' at me. ETOH lowers inhibitions. Apologies to all for my infrequent participation, but from what I have read, this line from JD is the best of the week: Android is like a Vichy collaborator in WWII.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 22:34:50 GMT -8
Mav I took a look at your blog and your estimate for 4th quarter. Good analysis, but still too conservative for me. If we get anything above 36.5 billon we will be cleared for take off. I except 37.8 billion and a 8% move as a result. It's not an estimate. It's a thought exercise within revenue guidance parameters.
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Post by mcharliem on Oct 20, 2013 6:01:17 GMT -8
Not seeing the bullishness from that OI chart, unless a bunch of those call sellers at 500 get spooked by continued AAPL strength on Monday (provided we get it, which I think we will) start covering and bringing down the call wall on their own. Is that what you're hinting at? If I could stress one thing to everyone here who analyzes options, it's to stop analyzing particular contracts in isolation like this. Anyone who has an options position only cares about the sum of their Greeks across all their contracts. And of those Greeks, the gamma is what they're most concerned with as far as managing risk. Come Monday morning, if AAPL opens up near $510, the gamma on these 500 calls is going to already pretty low and just drift lower and lower as the week goes on if AAPL doesn't sell off. Therefore, there is no effect of having to cover if AAPL doesn't sell off, because it's the exact opposite effect. The options become less and less significant the further the stock moves away from the strike, so there is literally nothing to cover at that point.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 7:19:07 GMT -8
Not seeing the bullishness from that OI chart, unless a bunch of those call sellers at 500 get spooked by continued AAPL strength on Monday (provided we get it, which I think we will) start covering and bringing down the call wall on their own. Is that what you're hinting at? If I could stress one thing to everyone here who analyzes options, it's to stop analyzing particular contracts in isolation like this. Anyone who has an options position only cares about the sum of their Greeks across all their contracts. And of those Greeks, the gamma is what they're most concerned with as far as managing risk. Come Monday morning, if AAPL opens up near $510, the gamma on these 500 calls is going to already pretty low and just drift lower and lower as the week goes on if AAPL doesn't sell off. Therefore, there is no effect of having to cover if AAPL doesn't sell off, because it's the exact opposite effect. The options become less and less significant the further the stock moves away from the strike, so there is literally nothing to cover at that point. Thanks again in for a cogent post. When I originally posted that I thought this strike story might be "bullish", I was, in my Own mind, thinking ahead to the Tuesday iPad event. If we sell off on Wednesday ( as has often been the Apple pattern ) having moved well beyond the 500 call strike in price action ( say, 512) by Tuesday there might not be a strong pull back all the way to 500.... Because we might have "outrun" it's influence......does that make any sense? We might retreat on Wednesday to 505, say, but there would be no forced retreat to 500...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 7:40:52 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 7:48:36 GMT -8
Wait mcharliem:
I get your point as far as buyers. But STO counts towards increasing OI too.
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Post by hledgard on Oct 20, 2013 7:49:48 GMT -8
Yes excellent article. Thoughtful.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 7:51:15 GMT -8
Dilger's pretty good at this stuff.
Wish he explained Geekbench a bit better though. I think it has both single and multi core testing.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 7:53:28 GMT -8
Employers Probably Increased Hiring: U.S. Economy Preview By Shobhana Chandra - Oct 19, 2013 9:00
The floodgates holding back a wave of U.S. economic data delayed by the partial government shutdown will begin to give way this week with the release of the September jobs report. Employers probably added more workers last month than in August and the jobless rate held at the lowest level since 2008, indicating the economy was gaining momentum before the fiscal gridlock in Washington forced some federal agencies to close for 16 days. Other figures this week may show home sales cooled in September and consumer sentiment waned this month.
“Payrolls growth is not booming, but is enough to keep bringing the unemployment rate down,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. “The message going into the government shutdown was that things are picking up. There’s so much uncertainty now.” Whether the labor market can sustain its advance hinges on how quickly the world’s largest economy can bounce back from the loss of business caused by the fiscal impasse. The dispute will cut fourth-quarter growth by 0.3 percentage point and also means the Federal Reserve will wait until March to begin trimming bond purchases, according to the median forecasts of economists surveyed last week. Payrolls rose by 180,000 workers in September, the most since April, after a 169,000 gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of 93 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of Labor Department data to be released Oct. 22. The report, delayed by the shutdown that ended Oct. 17, was originally due on Oct. 4. Holiday Hiring Even as the debate on fiscal policy heated up last month, retailers began announcing plans to add workers for the holiday-shopping season. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, is hiring 55,000 seasonal employees, a 10 percent rise from last year. Target Corp. said it plans to take on about 70,000 workers, or 20 percent fewer than a year earlier. Kohl’s Corp. will add about 53,000 workers for the holiday season, about the same as last year. The projected gain in nationwide payrolls for September would still be below the average 195,000 monthly increase in the first half of 2013. Through August, the U.S. had recovered 6.8 million of the 8.7 million jobs lost as a result of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009. The jobless rate, derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households than the payrolls tally, was 7.3 percent last month, according to the median projection in the Bloomberg survey. It matched the August reading, which was the lowest in more than four years.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 8:16:29 GMT -8
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Post by infohunter on Oct 20, 2013 9:55:11 GMT -8
Saw my first 5s commercial while watching football today. It showed off the Touch ID with the gold model joint commercial with Verizon.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 9:57:35 GMT -8
" Alongside the iPad updates, Kuo also believes that Apple will be introducing its Retina MacBook Pro on Tuesday" Huh? Kuo is overrated. My WAG is that I think the iPad 5 will have a fingerprint sensor. And the mini will be retina w/out fingerprint tech, assisting differentiation in the iPad line now that both will have retina.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2013 10:00:52 GMT -8
That would be a good lineup for the holidays.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2013 10:09:46 GMT -8
Sponge is in town....
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