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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2013 14:39:58 GMT -8
The bar is open... Not too shabby this week -- highest weekly close since 01/04/13 ...!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 14:45:44 GMT -8
It was a good week.
If AAPL puts in "good enough" earnings and guidance on Monday, the chart totally "supports" the AAPL story - I love it when technicals and fundamentals align.
Btw, SMA-20/50 bullish cross on the weekly if AAPL holds it together next week!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2013 15:23:40 GMT -8
It was a good week. If AAPL puts in "good enough" earnings and guidance on Monday, the chart totally "supports" the AAPL story - I love it when technicals and fundamentals align. Btw, SMA-20/50 bullish cross on the weekly if AAPL holds it together next week! That reference to "bullish cross" is tainted. Can you reinterpret that phrase please?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2013 16:46:57 GMT -8
Mav I think you mentioned two (or at least one) concerns I personally have on an earlier post (1) Oppie has a way of being way too conservative ... sometimes to the point of frightening WS and, (2) I wonder if part of this run is already the anticipation of potential good guidance. Remember we are held to such an incredibly higher standard - every word is dissected - every number made to sound exponential if bad, or minimized if good. I wish I had a better feel for Monday but we've been unexpectedly pleasantly surprised...and unexpectedly crushed with some of the earnings calls. Where is that hindsight mirror when you really need one?!
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coma
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Post by coma on Oct 25, 2013 16:53:30 GMT -8
Where is that hindsight mirror when you really need one?! Haven't you heard, it was recalled for being out of focus . . .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2013 17:08:10 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 19:31:54 GMT -8
Hah! Sorry Mercel, but that's the technical term, not the hedge fund guy.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2013 19:35:23 GMT -8
Hah! Sorry Mercel, but that's the technical term, not the hedge fund guy. A hedge fund guy known for his TA, before he flamed out the size of two Saturn V rockets...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 19:43:39 GMT -8
Here I'll retype it for you:
One of the things chart types think is good for momentum.
Happy?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2013 19:53:19 GMT -8
Here I'll retype it for you: One of the things chart types think is good for momentum. Happy? Not as satisfying as a snickers bar, no.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2013 20:22:26 GMT -8
Here I'll retype it for you: One of the things chart types think is good for momentum. Happy? Not as satisfying as a snickers bar, no. They say Andy refused to believe his charts...I just don't understand mine.. I would love to see implied guidance of 15 bucks from Oppy on Monday..
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 20:24:38 GMT -8
$14.50 top end would be fine (room to move up), but $15 is a great target. If GM guidance starts at _38%_, we're there IMHO
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2013 20:32:57 GMT -8
I like the way you think.....sort of.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2013 20:45:03 GMT -8
Thanks I guess
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 26, 2013 6:15:17 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 6:19:50 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 7:35:44 GMT -8
My Geekbench score on my new 2.6 rMBP is 12,800, a nice bump over my previous MBP (sub 10,000).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 9:28:14 GMT -8
Fast being fast enough, but Apple is a shrewd integrator. And very, very good at optimizing - did anyone think you could drive a display that high-res acceptably with an Intel HD 4000 plus mid-range dual-core mobile resources?
IGPs will boast "huge" improvements for some generations yet but as long as I buy iMacs I will insist on NVIDIA/Radeon options. Even as I'm not 100% sure I'm getting the most out of them. I hope Mavericks helps a bit with that.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 9:29:51 GMT -8
I'm remaining on the sidelines for Monday and earnings. You can all thank me later when AAPL goes up all day Monday and gets an extra 10% boost in AH.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 9:32:38 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 9:54:07 GMT -8
Ben Evans had a similar conclusion. It's like a proliferation of Archos/Creative PMPs in slate form.
I've wondered whether tablet growth is REALLY as hyper growth as others breathlessly say it is, esp. since PCs still get sold in pretty large quantities. If we're truly post-PC people PC growth will REALLY tank. Selling 200M PCs and also 500M tablets in one year doesn't make much sense unless 2/3 of em are sub-$200 media players.
That said when people DO decide PCs are like their TVs or trucks, Apple will be prepared. Just not sure if this segment of the tablet market (potential PC replacement) can actually grow 50% per year nowadays.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 26, 2013 9:58:13 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 10:02:57 GMT -8
"Optimistic" numbers but achievable. If not for supply gating Apple could've sold 35M+ iPhones, easy.
I'm not sure about $57-62B guidance with iPads launching with 8 and 6 or so weeks to go in the quarter. Oppenheimer LOVES to sandbag despite the new constraints he's placed on...well...himself to issue more accurate guidance. Will he use the later launches as uncertainty cover or will he just admit that the new iPads will do OK and allow Apple to reverse what could be TWO straight quarters of YOY unit declines?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 10:23:13 GMT -8
I'm higher at $8.73 EPS, using 895M SHS O/S. 37.9B Revs.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Oct 26, 2013 10:34:36 GMT -8
"Optimistic" numbers but achievable. If not for supply gating Apple could've sold 35M+ iPhones, easy. I'm not sure about $57-62B guidance with iPads launching with 8 and 6 or so weeks to go in the quarter. Oppenheimer LOVES to sandbag despite the new constraints he's placed on...well...himself to issue more accurate guidance. Will he use the later launches as uncertainty cover or will he just admit that the new iPads will do OK and allow Apple to reverse what could be TWO straight quarters of YOY unit declines? I am becoming a believer that the days of sandbagging are over. Apple recognized that it had to break out of the trap where it beats guidance by 20% only to be downgraded because analysts had decided it would beat by 50%. The high low estimates were a smart way to attack that, but they only solve the problem if they are consistently accurate. I think apple HAS to come in between those limits or risk a return to the problems of the past. On the other hand, the warning that they would be near the high end was exceptional. I am not sure what to make of it. I expect us to be within 5% of the high guidance, but there is certainly a potential for a upside surprise on next quarters guidance. One thing we have learned is that regardless of what happens, there is no reason to assume a positive correlation between earnings and the stock price. If P/E is at 10 now, it could go to 7 as easily as it could go to 15. Fortunately, I CAN stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 10:41:01 GMT -8
"Optimistic" numbers but achievable. If not for supply gating Apple could've sold 35M+ iPhones, easy. I'm not sure about $57-62B guidance with iPads launching with 8 and 6 or so weeks to go in the quarter. Oppenheimer LOVES to sandbag despite the new constraints he's placed on...well...himself to issue more accurate guidance. Will he use the later launches as uncertainty cover or will he just admit that the new iPads will do OK and allow Apple to reverse what could be TWO straight quarters of YOY unit declines? I like Daniel's guidance #s. Remember the mini was launched in November last year and the iPad 4 was hardly a catalyst machine. Now we have TWO big upgraded iPads being sold in the Dec. quarter. Even with relatively flat iPads sold this year vs. last, a 60M iPhone # will get us to 60B in sales.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 26, 2013 10:45:55 GMT -8
I still don't understand why they filed an 8-K just to say they would be "near" the high end of the previously provided revenue range? There must be some hidden meaning in this. They've far exceeded their guidance before and never bothered to give any indication beforehand. Yes, I know some say they are giving new realistic guidance now, but I just don't buy that. Even if they were trying to stick with realistic guidance, haven't they reported "near the high end" before and didn't file an 8-K? I'm trying to temper my expectations but the only thing I can make out of it is we are going to see a substantial beat. I'm going to be very surprised and disappointed with anything below 37B revenue.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 10:47:39 GMT -8
I'm remaining on the sidelines for Monday and earnings. You can all thank me later when AAPL goes up all day Monday and gets an extra 10% boost in AH. Bird, I'm going to thank you in advance just so we can be sure it actually happens as you predict. THANKS!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 10:52:53 GMT -8
Fast being fast enough, but Apple is a shrewd integrator. And very, very good at optimizing - did anyone think you could drive a display that high-res acceptably with an Intel HD 4000 plus mid-range dual-core mobile resources? IGPs will boast "huge" improvements for some generations yet but as long as I buy iMacs I will insist on NVIDIA/Radeon options. Even as I'm not 100% sure I'm getting the most out of them. I hope Mavericks helps a bit with that. I love it when you meld your Geek persona with your TA persona. Got a photo of you off the APPLETREE site...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 11:02:09 GMT -8
I still don't understand why they filed an 8-K just to say they would be "near" the high end of the previously provided revenue range? There must be some hidden meaning in this. They've far exceeded their guidance before and never bothered to give any indication beforehand. Yes, I know some say they are giving new realistic guidance now, but I just don't buy that. Even if they were trying to stick with realistic guidance, haven't they reported "near the high end" before and didn't file an 8-K? I'm trying to temper my expectations but the only thing I can make out of it is we are going to see a substantial beat. I'm going to be very surprised and disappointed with anything below 37B revenue. We will get another important clue about the "new" Apple guidance tomorrow. If they say that they will be near the high end of guidance and then beat by 10% the high end number Oppy gave, if they don't make a similar statemetn next quarter we can deduce that they will NOT be beating guidance by 10%. Doesn't mean they won't beat it by 3%. As each quarter under the new guidance method goes by will get clues...and can build on what a phrase means in actuality. Now if they ever warn........
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