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Post by appledoc on Oct 26, 2013 11:03:37 GMT -8
I'm remaining on the sidelines for Monday and earnings. You can all thank me later when AAPL goes up all day Monday and gets an extra 10% boost in AH. I'm taking a small risk with earnings. Wanted to jump in Friday at the close, but was too busy at work. The setup from a fundamental standpoint is awesome. Technically, I would have rather seen a down week, but this is fine. Still think this is the beginning of a massive run that won't sell off hard for awhile. Mirror of post-Jan 12 earnings.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 26, 2013 11:09:04 GMT -8
I still don't understand why they filed an 8-K just to say they would be "near" the high end of the previously provided revenue range? There must be some hidden meaning in this. They've far exceeded their guidance before and never bothered to give any indication beforehand. Yes, I know some say they are giving new realistic guidance now, but I just don't buy that. Even if they were trying to stick with realistic guidance, haven't they reported "near the high end" before and didn't file an 8-K? I'm trying to temper my expectations but the only thing I can make out of it is we are going to see a substantial beat. I'm going to be very surprised and disappointed with anything below 37B revenue. We will get another important clue about the "new" Apple guidance tomorrow. If they say that they will be near the high end of guidance and then beat by 10% the high end number Oppy gave, if they don't make a similar statemetn next quarter we can deduce that they will NOT be beating guidance by 10%. Doesn't mean they won't beat it by 3%. As each quarter under the new guidance method goes by will get clues...and can build on what a phrase means in actuality. Now if they ever warn........ Right, with each quarter we should get a better understanding of their guidance validity. Can someone who keeps track of this chime in and let us know how they've come in relative to the guidance range each quarter since they've started giving a range? I think in Q313 the high end of the revenue range was 35.5B and they came in at 35.3, which is certainly "near the high end", and they didn't feel it necessary to file an 8-K. That is why I suspect they will beat the high end for sure this time.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2013 11:32:20 GMT -8
You can all thank me later when AAPL goes up all day Monday and gets an extra 10% boost in AH. So you're the guy who pulls the levers?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2013 12:31:14 GMT -8
You can all thank me later when AAPL goes up all day Monday and gets an extra 10% boost in AH. So you're the guy who pulls the levers? He's the great and wonderful Oz!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 13:10:51 GMT -8
Nice post bud. Downside risk is much lower than upside risk if you ask me. This tech company both pays dividends (should go up next year) AND buys the dip like crazy.
My WAG, we don't really look back post-earnings. There might be profit-taking but the dips should be bought as long as rev guidance is at least $55-60B and margins are guided to 37%+. iPhone has two ways to win: Keep the greater sales momentum or catch the China Mobile wave (7 carriers in 1...and even if you discount to 3-4...)
iPad is just gravy, as long as Oppenheimer says "we expect to sell a large number of iPads in the holiday quarter" or better yet, admits to a management projection of YOY growth. ;D
(No, I'm not buying all-in weeklies)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 13:22:03 GMT -8
So you're the guy who pulls the levers? He's the great and wonderful Oz! No, just the dumb sap that seems to always end up losing out when it comes to earnings in almost every one for several years now. If I was long, then it would guarantee it going down. Don't ask me to short AAPL, though.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 13:33:26 GMT -8
If only we all just bought and held shares without margin, eh?
Could be quite the boring forum though.
"You still holding AAPL from 2002, Jeb?"
"Yyyyeeeep."
I wish I knew better than to be a trader. ;D
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Oct 26, 2013 13:44:51 GMT -8
I'm remaining on the sidelines for Monday and earnings. You can all thank me later when AAPL goes up all day Monday and gets an extra 10% boost in AH. I'm taking a small risk with earnings. Wanted to jump in Friday at the close, but was too busy at work. The setup from a fundamental standpoint is awesome. Technically, I would have rather seen a down week, but this is fine. Still think this is the beginning of a massive run that won't sell off hard for awhile. Mirror of post-Jan 12 earnings. Doc, you've been one of the most skeptical contributors since the Grand Crash, so I fiind your optimism to be extremely encouraging.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Oct 26, 2013 13:52:56 GMT -8
If only we all just bought and held shares without margin, eh? Could be quite the boring forum though. "You still holding AAPL from 2002, Jeb?" "Yyyyeeeep." I wish I knew better than to be a trader. ;D Well, that's me, and I could offer many descriptions of the past year, but "boring" would not be one of them. I''ll stop here before Lovey has to wash my mouth out with soap.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2013 14:37:18 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 15:22:40 GMT -8
Didn't dr Evil have a floating barge that flummoxed Austin Powers? Same one maybe ? Nah, couldn't be because Google is all ' don't be evil'.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 15:26:42 GMT -8
I like Daniel's guidance #s. Remember the mini was launched in November last year and the iPad 4 was hardly a catalyst machine. Now we have TWO big upgraded iPads being sold in the Dec. quarter. Even with relatively flat iPads sold this year vs. last, a 60M iPhone # will get us to 60B in sales. Hah! With 60M iPhones, you don't even need iPad growth to get to $60B in revs! #thepowerofspreadsheets
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 15:28:57 GMT -8
I'm wondering if margins for this quarter may not really surprise to the upside. Pricing of iPads, strength of 5s and 5c ( which is a true winner at this price point), demand so strong, 100 countries by December. Gold.
What if GM with those big revs is at 38.5 or so....,dare I hope?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2013 16:06:39 GMT -8
I like Daniel's guidance #s. Remember the mini was launched in November last year and the iPad 4 was hardly a catalyst machine. Now we have TWO big upgraded iPads being sold in the Dec. quarter. Even with relatively flat iPads sold this year vs. last, a 60M iPhone # will get us to 60B in sales. Hah! With 60M iPhones, you don't even need iPad growth to get to $60B in revs! #thepowerofspreadsheets If you don't have 60M iPhones dialed into your FQ1 2014 estimate, you're doing it wrong. I'm Bull+ remember, but 58M - 62M iPhones is achievable. I believe guidance will be appropriately strong (implied $15+)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 16:47:21 GMT -8
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Post by pauls on Oct 26, 2013 16:51:30 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 26, 2013 17:32:17 GMT -8
He's the great and wonderful Oz! No, just the dumb sap that seems to always end up losing out when it comes to earnings in almost every one for several years now. If I was long, then it would guarantee it going down. Don't ask me to short AAPL, though. I hear you, Birdie. I've been playing that game too, and with the same kind of luck you've been having.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 17:38:45 GMT -8
If you don't have 60M iPhones dialed into your FQ1 2014 estimate, you're doing it wrong. I'm Bull+ remember, but 58M - 62M iPhones is achievable. I believe guidance will be appropriately strong (implied $15+) It's too early to get anything more than WAG of a Q1 2014 estimate (for me, anyway). Hey, why not. ;D Yes, if Oppenheimer decides not to use the late iPad launch as tactical guidance cover, I think $60B in revs could qualify as "just" a midpoint of the range Apple's "likely to report within". Apple has all the products it needs for a consensus-Q1-crushing quarter. Will Oppenheimer resist the urge to sandbag, though? That $34B low-end rev estimate did turn out pretty laughable, after all. That's why I'm guessing guidance at $55-60B (still plenty "good enough" with a margin guide of 37%+) and Oppenheimer making a mid-course revision once iPads and iPad minis launch without any issues.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2013 18:43:48 GMT -8
When Oppy gave the lowball 34 billion in revs for the quarter past the two main drivers, Iphone 5s and c, had not launched....and if a major flaw in the Touch ID system had developed maybe the launch moves into October for the S...So, I give him a pass on the September Quarter.
But this quarter, the December quarter, we KNOW that both iphones are out and selling big. We know the Ipad Air will be here in a week. Ipad mini retina...late November...but coming in time for the holidays. Now it is not that the products might not be out and available, its about production and demand. How much can be built and how many does the World want?
So, since Oppy knows the first and we all know the second, I expect highish revenue guidance. Oppy also knows about share buybacks, likely GMs...its should all be good.
Go Big, Oppy....or go home..
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Oct 26, 2013 19:31:51 GMT -8
Psssssst....... The other Portland
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2013 21:02:22 GMT -8
By that logic red, there's always issues with a totally new form factor (iPad Air) and new-screen yields plus an extremely high-precision build of the new mini. Not that different from a Touch ID sensor in a same-form-factor product, right?
A7 v.2 is also a bit untested, since the iPhone variant does differ in more than just clock speed.
I think Apple has a very good quarter in progress. Will Oppenheimer not be shy about it is the big question. Just two more days...
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Post by pauls on Oct 26, 2013 21:56:27 GMT -8
Psssssst....... The other Portland Oh, whoops! I guess that does make more sense
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Post by macoz on Oct 26, 2013 22:04:44 GMT -8
I still don't understand why they filed an 8-K just to say they would be "near" the high end of the previously provided revenue range? There must be some hidden meaning in this. They've far exceeded their guidance before and never bothered to give any indication beforehand. Yes, I know some say they are giving new realistic guidance now, but I just don't buy that. Even if they were trying to stick with realistic guidance, haven't they reported "near the high end" before and didn't file an 8-K? I'm trying to temper my expectations but the only thing I can make out of it is we are going to see a substantial beat. I'm going to be very surprised and disappointed with anything below 37B revenue. We will get another important clue about the "new" Apple guidance tomorrow. If they say that they will be near the high end of guidance and then beat by 10% the high end number Oppy gave, if they don't make a similar statemetn next quarter we can deduce that they will NOT be beating guidance by 10%. Doesn't mean they won't beat it by 3%. As each quarter under the new guidance method goes by will get clues...and can build on what a phrase means in actuality. Now if they ever warn........ I believe this is Tim Cook's Apple and not Steve Jobs. Apple is behaving responsibly as a large Cap company should. No huge surprises in ER. While they will not comment on new products they will now factor them in in their guidance. In keeping with this philosophy PO had to announce that they were going to be at the high end of guidance. If we are lucky it will be a beat of a couple of cents. Should not be too big of a beat as then credibility is lost once again. JMHO.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 27, 2013 1:11:27 GMT -8
Expect a big beat on revs and GM. High end of 3Q rev guidance was 35.5B. Actual was 35.3B. High end of GM guidance was 37%. Actual was 36.9. No updated earnings statements leading into the release. Logic follows that Q4 actual will be outside of Q4 guidance.
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Post by macoz on Oct 27, 2013 1:51:14 GMT -8
Expect a big beat on revs and GM. High end of 3Q rev guidance was 35.5B. Actual was 35.3B. High end of GM guidance was 37%. Actual was 36.9. No updated earnings statements leading into the release. Logic follows that Q4 actual will be outside of Q4 guidance. Read the 8-K filed on 23 Sept. It is irresponsible of Apple if there is a huge beat on Revenues and GM.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Oct 27, 2013 5:04:01 GMT -8
Expect a big beat on revs and GM. High end of 3Q rev guidance was 35.5B. Actual was 35.3B. High end of GM guidance was 37%. Actual was 36.9. No updated earnings statements leading into the release. Logic follows that Q4 actual will be outside of Q4 guidance. You may be right, but there may be other explanations for the updated earnings statement, if I were trying to limit the speculation in my stock, one way to do it is to make as much info available as possible. I found it interesting that Tim announced the 170 million iPad number. Staying within the guidance range, issuing updated earnings statements, and giving the iPad numbers could be a strategy to protect the stock holders. What better way to fight FUD than with real data if you have it? This approach also fits with the more mature and measured approach that Tim brings to Apple. Maybe there are no more ego enhancing "one more thing" announcements and no more earning surprises. Apple's success in supply chain, engineering and innovation all come from a relentless attention to detail and continuous refinement. If you apply this same approach to managing the stock price, I think you would create an environment with as little uncertainty as possible. Investors would have such confidence in predicted results that speculators would go elsewhere. It is hard to find a greater fool when everyone is informed. Like you, I am just connecting dots. I guess we will find out tomorrow. I don't rule out a beat, but if there is one, it will be interesting to see how they reconcile it with the new guidance approach. I did not find this until after my post, but it seems relevant tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/?iid=H_T_QLEdit: Added link
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Post by chasmac on Oct 27, 2013 6:08:22 GMT -8
There will always be some surprise even on Apple's end when you get that large.
Finally got around to getting the new 5S. Great phone! Business was pretty brisk at BestBuy (no Apple stores nearby). 4/5 phones were iPhones. Inventory still low. 5C selling better than I thought. Guys buying blue or White 5Cs according to rep. Got a vague answer from him on switchers.
Amazing (not really) to see the new Microsoft and Samsung mini stores there. Complete rip offs of the Apple stores. Apple mini store doesn't stand out like it did. And they separated the iPads from the laptop/desktops. Only one store but not good.,wonder what it cost MS and SS for this footprint?
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Post by redinaustin on Oct 27, 2013 6:53:01 GMT -8
"5C selling better than I thought. Guys buying blue or White 5Cs according to rep. Got a vague answer from him on switchers."
Anecdotal evidence only: In the last week I became aware of 3 switchers. Two were college students and one was a Doc. 1 5S and 1 5C(white) for the kids and a 5C for the Doc.
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 27, 2013 8:11:48 GMT -8
PED has the "smackdown" of amateur and "professional" analysts ready to go. Many familiar names. Quite a list. PED's Spreadsheet
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Post by Lstream on Oct 27, 2013 8:28:22 GMT -8
PED has the "smackdown" of amateur and "professional" analysts ready to go. Many familiar names. Quite a list. PED's Spreadsheet I cringe every time I see this. I wish the amateurs could avoid the temptation to see their name up in lights. I don't know what the value is in being part of this side show.
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