Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2013 10:32:08 GMT -8
iBeacons (apparently works fine with Android so I'm guessing it's a BT LE-compatible solution) have huge implications for commerce and maybe even hyper-local location. The specs as far as payment range beat the stuffing out of Wave 'n Pray.
Like anything, as long as battery consumption is low (supposedly yes) and security is good, hard not to see the potential. I was mildly dubious on BT beyond short-range voice and audio years ago...not so much now.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 17, 2013 10:53:40 GMT -8
Thank you for making it clear that those were BI articles. Saved me from clicking on those links and rewarding the link-bait whores.
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Post by jmolloy on Nov 17, 2013 11:23:43 GMT -8
iBeacons (apparently works fine with Android so I'm guessing it's a BT LE-compatible solution) have huge implications for commerce and maybe even hyper-local location. The specs as far as payment range beat the stuffing out of Wave 'n Pray. I got the impression that there are a very small percentage of BLE equipped Android phones, one of the reasons why Nike wasn't bothering with in that market. Apparently it's been sitting in the iPhone since the (4s)? Apple doesn't innovate, it just plans many years ahead.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2013 11:51:13 GMT -8
"In 2002, then New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer published Merrill Lynch e-mails in which Blodget gave assessments about stocks which allegedly conflicted with what was publicly published. In 2003, he was charged with civil securities fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He agreed to a permanent ban from the securities industry and paid a $2 million fine plus a $2 million disgorgement."
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Post by BillH on Nov 17, 2013 11:52:55 GMT -8
Will spring/summer be the 2nd in a row without A new iOS iphone/iPad device? Or I'm I confused on something. This will sound kind of snarky but I don't mean it that way. Your confusion lies in thinking that anyone here (or similar venues) has a clue about what Apple's plans might be for the coming year. They have only stated publicly that we would see products launched into a new category between now and the end of 2014. It might be useful to consider that products could be construed to mean software or services in lieu of the hardware based teleportation device many are hoping for.
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Post by mstrmac on Nov 17, 2013 12:03:50 GMT -8
It's just all what, Blodget articles? Oh yeah, proof Apple is totally doomed. Media coverage isn't all that positive on Apple any time of any year. You being serious esp. with those BusinessInsider links? The competition has been fierce and unapologetic like warfare. No doubt about that. Business insider or not, i was aware of the disdain of them but its mostly true here. You'll find the same sentiment overall wherever. Apple is not doomed, but they don't dominate in the mobile business like they have from 2007 thru 2011. Thats a given.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2013 12:05:45 GMT -8
www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-primesense-apple-idUSBRE9AG03G20131117?feedType=RSS&irpc=932"Apple has bought PrimeSense, an Israeli maker of chips that enable three-dimensional (3D) machine vision, for $345 million, the Calcalist financial newspaper reported on Sunday without citing sources.
PrimeSense has raised $85 million from Israeli and U.S. venture capital funds such as Canaan Partners Global, Gemini Israel and Genesis Partners, Calcalist said.
"We are focused on building a prosperous company while bringing 3D sensing and natural interaction to the mass market in a variety of markets such as interactive living room and mobile devices," a spokeswoman for PrimeSense said. "We do not comment on what any of our partners, customers or potential customers are doing and we do not relate to rumors or recycled rumors."" People are speculating the technology might be going into a future Apple HDTV, but I prefer to dream a little bigger and hope its going into the $9999 Siri powered iRobot home servant. 😜
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Post by mstrmac on Nov 17, 2013 12:08:33 GMT -8
"In 2002, then New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer published Merrill Lynch e-mails in which Blodget gave assessments about stocks which allegedly conflicted with what was publicly published. In 2003, he was charged with civil securities fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He agreed to a permanent ban from the securities industry and paid a $2 million fine plus a $2 million disgorgement." Fred Vogelstein and Jay Yarow must be Blodget's yes men. edit: and Blodget is a admitted Apple shareholder
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2013 12:25:01 GMT -8
Blodget is an Apple troll who probably holds a nominal amount of AAPL stock so he can say he's "invested" in Apple and somehow "cares". And that it's not just for the page hits. Sure.
Competition is fierce. That's not to Apple's detriment. Adapt to it or face the consequences. If Apple can't, it's not the company we thought it was. Of course, questions of IP copying are another matter, but luckily Apple grew big enough so it can pay its legal teams 24/7/365 to defend itself and its interests.
Apple NEVER dominated smartphones. That's a complete meme. What happened was, Apple had a hypergrowth phase, as all successful smartphone companies do, then came the dozens of follow-ons, probably assisted by the dubiously-similar-to-iOS Android. Apple had mindshare, it "owned" the premium multi-touch capacitive display hardware-keyboard-free market for a little while because it created it.
There's no question Apple had a bit of an off year for iPhone in FY '13. Management couldn't hide it during the first couple of conference calls.
Apple has been outsold by Samsung from the beginning, and has probably been outsold in terms of smartphones for forever as well. Growth is most relevant. Of course it will slow down at the volumes Apple's selling now. That Apple only plays in the premium space is a factor as well.
But will growth stabilize or fall off a cliff? Subjective, but there's ways to get some idea of what's going on which I don't think need repeating here.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2013 12:36:33 GMT -8
It's just all what, Blodget articles? Oh yeah, proof Apple is totally doomed. Media coverage isn't all that positive on Apple any time of any year. You being serious esp. with those BusinessInsider links? The competition has been fierce and unapologetic like warfare. No doubt about that. Business insider or not, i was aware of the disdain of them but its mostly true here. You'll find the same sentiment overall wherever. Apple is not doomed, but they don't dominate in the mobile business like they have from 2007 thru 2011. Thats a given. Depends on your definition of "dominate" I think. The below isn't directed at yourself, but just at the doubters in general. Apple was never the leader in smartphone shipments (but has for the last half decade been the undisputed leader in profits). Before launching the iPhone In 2007, Apple had 0.0% of mobile phone sales - today its creeping ever higher towards 10% of total handset sales (not just smartphones). People like to compare iPhone growth to other companies like Samsung. Samsung's reported "smartphone" growth hides the crucial fact that most of Samsungs smartphone growth is coming from simply replacing non-smartphone shipments (feature phones) - with smartphones (priced not much higher than the feature phones they are replacing). This quarter Apple will ship between 90 - 100 million mobile devices with an ASP above $500 with gross margins near 40%. No other company comes anywhere close to that. Samsung is the only company that might match in device shipments, but its only achieved at a much lower ASP & gross margin rate. Meanwhile, can anyone name another company that has managed to "innovate" there way to creating even just one product that created a new massively profitable product categories since the turn of the century? Anything on the scale of the iPod? The iPhone? The iPad? The App Store? (In a stretch you might be able to say Amazon created the Ebook market with the kindle, but only by selling the hardware at cost and not making any profit ever. The only other contender would be Facebook but that can't even touch the iPod or App Store in terms of profitability, and its a stretch to call it a new product category). Look at who the current tech pundits describe as the current "dominant" leaders in the industry, and how they are "out innovating" -Apple: Samsung - proven guilty & self confessed thieves of others ideas, with such marvellous innovations as the Galaxy gear "smart"watch. Google - the one trick pony (Advertising is 95% of their revenue), wowing the world with google glass, a almost useless idiotic product announced a long time ago that has yet to go on sale to the general public. Oh and driverless cars some time in the future of course. Microsoft - LOL, nothing needs to be said. EDIT: I see Mav bet me to it
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Post by mstrmac on Nov 17, 2013 12:42:53 GMT -8
Good post Mav and Burgess. Exactly why I'm not selling my shares.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Nov 17, 2013 12:51:55 GMT -8
Well pardon me, I thought this was a discussion board. I just find it odd that anyone would put any stock in an answer to these questions. It is like have a fantasy discussion. Why would anyone ask a question to a group of people who have no hope of knowing anything relevant on the subject? If you want to have the discussion, then go for it. I just don't see the purpose. Both here and on Braeburn I sometimes see people making pronouncements about when China Mobile is going to happen. As if they have information that only Apple can have. It is one of the odder parts of the experience of being on these boards. Odd that anyone would claim to have any basis to provide valid insight, and even odder that anyone listening would find anything useful in these prognostications. Especially on China Mobile, where this futility has been going on for years. Lstream, you are absolutely right. Nothing is more frustrating than having someone assert something that they can not possibly know. It smacks of ignorance at best and arrogance at worst. No wonder you are offended. Who could possibly know what will happen with China Mobile and when. Or know what next quarters performance or stock price would be? For that matter, who could possibly know the extent of knowledge and information available to contributors on this board? It is indeed frustrating
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2013 12:53:26 GMT -8
Some overlap, burgess. Not a lot. There's no denying iPhone/iPad growth wasn't awesome this year - at ~20% unit growth I'd call it lukewarm growth at best, even with the mitigating factors of no "iPad mini the people really wanted", "old-form-factor iPad", only one LTE smartphone that seemed to lack 4S levels of popularity, etc. Compares are "fairer" and "easier" this year. GM compares much less daunting. Apple has much better product. China Mobile is at minimum more of a factor now since TD-LTE is but a firmware hack away. (I hope that post didn't offend anyone. ;D)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2013 14:50:58 GMT -8
Some overlap, burgess. Not a lot. There's no denying iPhone/iPad growth wasn't awesome this year - at ~20% unit growth I'd call it lukewarm growth at best, even with the mitigating factors of no "iPad mini the people really wanted", "old-form-factor iPad", only one LTE smartphone that seemed to lack 4S levels of popularity, etc. Compares are "fairer" and "easier" this year. GM compares much less daunting. Apple has much better product. China Mobile is at minimum more of a factor now since TD-LTE is but a firmware hack away. (I hope that post didn't offend anyone. ;D) Compares are much easier this year, but are products much better than last year? If you ask me, the jump from a 4S to a 5 is larger than a 5 to a 5s...also, the mini was brand new last year and people that wanted a 7" iPad probably bought it. I'm not sure if the growth in iPad this year will be massive...20% would be awesome
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 17, 2013 15:01:27 GMT -8
Some overlap, burgess. Not a lot. There's no denying iPhone/iPad growth wasn't awesome this year - at ~20% unit growth I'd call it lukewarm growth at best, even with the mitigating factors of no "iPad mini the people really wanted", "old-form-factor iPad", only one LTE smartphone that seemed to lack 4S levels of popularity, etc. Compares are "fairer" and "easier" this year. GM compares much less daunting. Apple has much better product. China Mobile is at minimum more of a factor now since TD-LTE is but a firmware hack away. (I hope that post didn't offend anyone. ;D) Compares are much easier this year, but are products much better than last year? If you ask me, the jump from a 4S to a 5 is larger than a 5 to a 5s...also, the mini was brand new last year and people that wanted a 7" iPad probably bought it. I'm not sure if the growth in iPad this year will be massive...20% would be awesome I held out for a mini retina.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 17, 2013 15:17:00 GMT -8
They don't make that in Gold.....seems out of character for you.
Asian index futures looking pretty green....let's get the week off to a good start.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2013 16:35:43 GMT -8
20% YOY growth for a second year in a row would be quite nice, considering. That should correspond to ~15% YOY EPS growth considering deferrals.
US futures looked very slightly green (up 20 basis points or so), neutral now.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 17, 2013 18:00:05 GMT -8
China Mobile will be announced at 8:30 AM on January 14th, alongside the new 60" Apple TV.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 17, 2013 18:44:43 GMT -8
China Mobile will be announced at 8:30 AM on January 14th, alongside the new 60" Apple TV. Great. Relying on this I just mortgaged the house and bought Jan 14 600s. Can't lose
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platon
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Post by platon on Nov 17, 2013 19:03:56 GMT -8
I just find it odd that anyone would put any stock in an answer to these questions. It is like have a fantasy discussion. Why would anyone ask a question to a group of people who have no hope of knowing anything relevant on the subject? If you want to have the discussion, then go for it. I just don't see the purpose. Both here and on Braeburn I sometimes see people making pronouncements about when China Mobile is going to happen. As if they have information that only Apple can have. It is one of the odder parts of the experience of being on these boards. Odd that anyone would claim to have any basis to provide valid insight, and even odder that anyone listening would find anything useful in these prognostications. Especially on China Mobile, where this futility has been going on for years. Lstream, you are absolutely right. Nothing is more frustrating than having someone assert something that they can not possibly know. It smacks of ignorance at best and arrogance at worst. No wonder you are offended. Who could possibly know what will happen with China Mobile and when. Or know what next quarters performance or stock price would be? For that matter, who could possibly know the extent of knowledge and information available to contributors on this board? It is indeed frustrating Wow this is an orgasm of sarcasm if I have ever seen one. Nice post. I always look at these posts as "opinions" and really don't understand why they bother certain people so much. This may be an additional reason the blog is suffering a lack of participation lately--after all who wants to be the target of the blog nazis. Agree, disagree, argue or ignore but if we only want facts to be posted it will probably get awfully quiet around here and that would be a shame. I want to say something about Apple that I know for a fact but I can't think of anything so I have just realized that my post has become irrelevant! Just like the original post that started this chain.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 17, 2013 19:04:00 GMT -8
Is it possible that we get an Apple press release tomorrow morning announcing combined sales of the "new" iPads- the Air and the Retina Mini?
The Air has been out for a while and the mini got a soft launch.....but if sales of each has been as strong as believed it would be a way for Apple to give a little refined guidance....
Just thinkin'
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Post by nagrani on Nov 17, 2013 19:13:14 GMT -8
I'm thinking apple announces one more press event on 11/22. Day of Xbox one IPO. Don't be short this week
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 17, 2013 19:17:28 GMT -8
China Mobile will be announced at 8:30 AM on January 14th, alongside the new 60" Apple TV. This is TOTALLY inaccurate and irresponsible conjecture ! WE all know it's being announced that day at 10:30 .... details people , details ;D
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Post by cambrose on Nov 17, 2013 19:29:58 GMT -8
I'm thinking apple announces one more press event on 11/22. Day of Xbox one IPO. Don't be short this week I'm thinking there has to be something soon. Why have we not seen the MFI game controllers yet. We've got a lot of rumblings and no released products. There has to be a reason they're not releasing them. Is Apple coordinating something? And if so, I would expect to see it before Black Friday. I believe these will be the sleeper hit of the season.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 17, 2013 20:01:56 GMT -8
I'm thinking apple announces one more press event on 11/22. Day of Xbox one IPO. Don't be short this week I'm thinking there has to be something soon. Why have we not seen the MFI game controllers yet. We've got a lot of rumblings and no released products. There has to be a reason they're not releasing them. Is Apple coordinating something? And if so, I would expect to see it before Black Friday. I believe these will be the sleeper hit of the season. "Our friend" Walt Mossberg tweeted a related article on this today. Apple Aiming at PrimeSense Acquisition, but Deal Is Not Yet Done
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2013 20:08:18 GMT -8
Sorry, but I'm not seeing MFi controllers being a mover of the stock. Nice, ecosystem-helper, brings in millions in licensing royalties, sure, but not a game-changer.
The speculation over what PrimeSense tech is "most likely" to be incorporated into *cough cough big-screen something* probably has more impact (though I wouldn't buy just on that acquisition either).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2013 20:12:21 GMT -8
Is it possible that we get an Apple press release tomorrow morning announcing combined sales of the "new" iPads- the Air and the Retina Mini? The Air has been out for a while and the mini got a soft launch.....but if sales of each has been as strong as believed it would be a way for Apple to give a little refined guidance.... Just thinkin' I thinking the odds of a guidance revision are a little better than 50/50...then again maybe Oppenheimer waits until closer to the end of the quarter? One thing I think even us clueless types can approach consensus on , iPad mini retina holding the line on ship times seems like a damn good sign. Yes it's a WAG but no way something so anticipated tanks in mindshare/eventual iPad mix share because it's $70 more per SKU than before. Yet another dangerous WAG, but you'd think initial online orders are around 2M units or more by now. *cough supply chain rumors cough*
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2013 20:56:12 GMT -8
I'm thinking apple announces one more press event on 11/22. Day of Xbox one IPO. Don't be short this week I'm thinking there has to be something soon. Why have we not seen the MFI game controllers yet. We've got a lot of rumblings and no released products. There has to be a reason they're not releasing them. Is Apple coordinating something? And if so, I would expect to see it before Black Friday. I believe these will be the sleeper hit of the season. I just got done Xmas email spam from Apple - advertising its "favourite gifts of the season" - iPad Air - iPad mini with retina display - iPhone 5S ("the gift of christmas future") - iPhone 5C - MacBook Air - iPod touch - AppleTV ("the seasons most entertaining gift idea") I get the impression the holiday lineup is set. Any new product category that includes 3rd App support would likely have WWDC before release?
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Post by cambrose on Nov 17, 2013 21:55:20 GMT -8
I'm thinking there has to be something soon. Why have we not seen the MFI game controllers yet. We've got a lot of rumblings and no released products. There has to be a reason they're not releasing them. Is Apple coordinating something? And if so, I would expect to see it before Black Friday. I believe these will be the sleeper hit of the season. I just got done Xmas email spam from Apple - advertising its "favourite gifts of the season" - iPad Air - iPad mini with retina display - iPhone 5S ("the gift of christmas future") - iPhone 5C - MacBook Air - iPod touch - AppleTV ("the seasons most entertaining gift idea") I get the impression the holiday lineup is set. Any new product category that includes 3rd App support would likely have WWDC before release? The support is already in iOS 7. I certainly don't expect them to be a huge revenue booster, but it certainly adds a lot of value to the ecosystem and could possibly be the nail in the coffin for Sony and Nintendo's portables market. Just wondering aloud why they haven't hit the market. I don't know if MFI controllers actually require Apple approval. Could just be taking time to bring them to market. Now is the season though. Should be soon.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 18, 2013 5:58:31 GMT -8
Lstream, you are absolutely right. Nothing is more frustrating than having someone assert something that they can not possibly know. It smacks of ignorance at best and arrogance at worst. No wonder you are offended. Who could possibly know what will happen with China Mobile and when. Or know what next quarters performance or stock price would be? For that matter, who could possibly know the extent of knowledge and information available to contributors on this board? It is indeed frustrating Wow this is an orgasm of sarcasm if I have ever seen one. Nice post. I always look at these posts as "opinions" and really don't understand why they bother certain people so much. This may be an additional reason the blog is suffering a lack of participation lately--after all who wants to be the target of the blog nazis. Agree, disagree, argue or ignore but if we only want facts to be posted it will probably get awfully quiet around here and that would be a shame. I want to say something about Apple that I know for a fact but I can't think of anything so I have just realized that my post has become irrelevant! Just like the original post that started this chain. Board Nazi checking in. We all have our reasons for backing off on our participation here. I like to have some kind of basis for expressing an opinion. That is a hallmark for an actual useful community in my view. An opinion that is obviously in the minority here. Which for me is a motivator for backing off on participation. Others clearly have more interest in speculating just for the fun of it. Point taken.
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