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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 7:38:48 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 7:38:48 GMT -8
49M minimum target IMHO. MINIMUM. I am still in the 52 camp. I think the revenue number that TC kept alluding to is the give away. Kind of a coincidentally accurate tell. I know, I know, Mr. conspiracy again.
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 7:55:27 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 27, 2012 7:55:27 GMT -8
In terms of revenue, iPhone could be a whopping 59 % of gross revenue.
49-52 is my range of iPhone unit sales (millions, of course).
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 8:01:20 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 8:01:20 GMT -8
In terms of revenue, iPhone could be a whopping 59 % of gross revenue. 49-52 is my range of iPhone unit sales (millions, of course). Yes in deed. That would do wonders for the GM don't you think? If 33 billion in rev is iphone, the other 23 could have only a 30% GM and we would still crush PO's guidance for GM.
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 8:11:18 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 27, 2012 8:11:18 GMT -8
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 8:16:36 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 8:16:36 GMT -8
Getting a little ahead with the Q1 2013 huh? I am looking at the Q1/Q2 (2012) for some help, but the intros this quarter will shave off GM. Still in head scratching mode. ;D
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 8:33:05 GMT -8
Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 27, 2012 8:33:05 GMT -8
In terms of revenue, iPhone could be a whopping 59 % of gross revenue. 49-52 is my range of iPhone unit sales (millions, of course). Yes in deed. That would do wonders for the GM don't you think? If 33 billion in rev is iphone, the other 23 could have only a 30% GM and we would still crush PO's guidance for GM. I'm cautious of too much optimism around iPhone 5 GM. We don't know with any certainty how strong it is. It IS very early in the cost curve journey still... Again, in Q1'11 when Apple launched (and sold a lot of) iPhone 4, GM was guided to 36% and delivered about 38% IIRC
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 10:01:05 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 10:01:05 GMT -8
No, look at Tetra's chart. They guided to 40 and came in above 44. I agree the cost up front is higher, but they seem to have worked out the kinks. Still a 50+% GM. And lets not forget about the 4/4S, these units are great for margin even though they have dropped in price. If there is a "free" phone out there better than the 4 I would like to see it. There is not one.
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 10:23:22 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 27, 2012 10:23:22 GMT -8
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 10:26:36 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 10:26:36 GMT -8
That is 2 GM points, but the overwhelming volume should help.
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 12:09:18 GMT -8
Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 27, 2012 12:09:18 GMT -8
iSuppli numbers are notoriously WAGgy. Also Mark, I said Q1'11 not Q1'12, iPhone 4 not 4S. New shape, new manufacture process, 36% guided total GM, 38.5% actual...
That said your point on 4 and 4S now being profit-rich is a good one, and sales will be strong I think. Stronger than 3GS sales were in Q1'11...
I'm not being bearish, just cautious.
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iPhone5
Nov 27, 2012 12:32:30 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 12:32:30 GMT -8
Gotcha, that darn fiscal and calendar issue. Forgive me, my brain is still on life support.
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iPhone5
Dec 13, 2012 10:17:03 GMT -8
Post by machouse on Dec 13, 2012 10:17:03 GMT -8
Why iPhone sales may be above estimates.
4S october 14th vs 5 september 21. By year end 5 will have been on sale 102 days, thats last years equivalent of all of Q1 and January or 37 for Q4 and Approximately 10 million for January. or 47 million in 102 days. Lets give 30% YOY increase or 61.1 million units. Subtract 6 million sold last two weeks of Q4 and add 2 million for Channel fill. Math gives 57.1. My estimate is 55 For Q1. Please provide any flaws in my math.
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iPhone5
Dec 13, 2012 11:13:44 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 13, 2012 11:13:44 GMT -8
It looks encouraging, doesn't it. However, Apple's sales and algebra are never the whole story.
1. ATT iphone sales ? They appear weak. 2. constricted sales due to constricted supply ? maybe, but supply vs demand has caught up. Some speculate that demand has dropped. 3. earliest early adopters bought in Q4, not Q1 ? Some of them, yes 4. pessimism in economy , in part due to US domestic politics ? 5. Greece issues 6. more countries in early rollout -- a good thing.
Of these 6 issues, #6 is of course good and #2 is mainly good news.
It is likely that Apple and partners have had enough time to increase production capacity of most components.
Basically, the sales come down to: consumer demand and supply on hand.
What concerns me most is ATT demand as a reflection of demand in other carriers. 55 M is a mighty strong estimate, machouse. Caution is warranted for now.
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iPhone5
Dec 13, 2012 12:08:22 GMT -8
Post by machouse on Dec 13, 2012 12:08:22 GMT -8
All good points. I would like to dive into ATT further. As of 12/01/12 they have sold 6.4 million smartphones vs 6 million last year. only .4 million more, but more. If iPhone 5 had been released two weeks later in Q1 1.3 million more or 7.7 total as off now. The only skepticism I can see is last year supply was still constrained. Either way I agree skepticism is warranted.
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iPhone5
Dec 18, 2012 10:20:01 GMT -8
Post by moltenfire on Dec 18, 2012 10:20:01 GMT -8
Couldn't resist, just got my white 32 gb iPhone 5 last Thursday and will ebay my 4S. My 32 White factory unlocked iPhone 4S, despite being over a year old, still ebays for over $500, only a $249 discount from full retail when new. Resale value's one of the strengths of having an iPhone BTW, Canadian Apple stores are now selling factory unlocked iPhone 5s at retail. Previously (as recently as 1 month ago) they were only available through the Canadian Apple online store. And they have inventory for all comers
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 4, 2013 8:29:38 GMT -8
Quoting from Gregg, Jan 3rd intraday
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 4, 2013 8:43:10 GMT -8
For more precise algebra, one could subtract out iPhone 4 from the above calculation AND therefore also subtract out iPhone 4 and 4s from current quarter. The result is somewhat the same.
Apple's production capacity of iPhones should not be underestimated.
The rumblings I've seen in the intertubes say that VZ could be up nicely because of LTE availability. However, Europe is a question mark. I suspect we need country-by-country analysis there.
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