Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2013 20:03:19 GMT -8
Interesting.....some good folks calling for a temporary pop tomorrow followed by sell off. Others see a 2% jump with basing at 570 or so...then? .well, whether or not the deal is priced in tomorrow...the longer term effects are much mor compelling. I think Tim's letter to staff today is just as exciting.... Tomorrow should be fascinating....when does Frankfurt open? Those saying "pop > sell off" are hopeful dreamers who want in AAPL. Sell AAPL at this P/E, FQ1 earnings, FQ2 Guidance, CM and Tim's exciting 2014? Stay long and strong IMO. There'll be retrace along the way, as always. But committed shorts have a higher chance of PAIN in 2014. ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2013 20:28:17 GMT -8
Nothing goes straight up, even AMZN. I see a higher possibility of strong AAPL buying early January so the institutions can keep GOOG and AMZN on the books at year-end in order to show what geniuses they are. Then, rotation.
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Post by yellowhandman on Dec 22, 2013 21:52:50 GMT -8
Happy to oblige, JD (I loved my Biz Law classes, btw). Here's a front page clip off the NYT this evening. This is THE financial news tomorrow. The article itself is a classic FUD piece, talking about the challenges Apple faces because competitors like Samsung have greater market share from selling cheap phones. The usual rubbish. At Apple's margins, even increasing their marketshare in China by 1-2% would translate into tremendous increased profits. The whole of China doesn't need to afford iPhones - just the (growing) upper middle class and above. When sales finally start in January, I fully expect FUD pieces about the sales being "disappointing" (compared to some ridiculous number pulled from the air), and saying that Apple could've made a killing if the iPhone 5C had been cheaper - totally ignoring that Apple is going to make a fortune anyway.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 22, 2013 22:04:35 GMT -8
With AMZN and GOOG at ATH, we might even get some rotation out of those two overinflated balloons. 15M incremental sales from China Mobile boosts iPhone 10% YOY without ANY growth from the rest of the world. 15M is less than 2% of CM's sub base. That's your prediction? What, are you challenging Dr. Buzzkill for Chief AFB2 Party Poopah, Mav? Harshin' my mellow, man. Exactly what I said when I read the Bloomberg push alert as I stood on my front porch. But it came out kinda dirty, and I got a little embarrassed because I think my neighbor might have heard. Stay long and strong IMO. You're like financial message board Viagra.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2013 22:24:48 GMT -8
Well, I do think we will see an extenze of Friday's updraft in AAPL on Monday...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2013 23:42:08 GMT -8
'Mellow out, JD. I'm using number-fu against the "high-end consensus" of 15M China Mobile iPhones sold in fiscal 2014 or so. Bad looks pretty damn good from a YOY standpoint. WS may be slow on the uptake on what kind of boost a "modest" number of China Mobile iPhones gives Apple's financials.
I have no clue what the actual number could be, but I'm not ruling out double that (30M). Better?
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