JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 2, 2014 15:26:43 GMT -8
And finally, my unsolicited two cents: anyone dabbling in short-term option plays, just make sure you're equipped to lose it ALL. If you are, then great. Have fun, and I hope you win the jackpot! True, but isn't this your advice 52 weeks a year? It's just double dumb bunny if one does it before LEAPS expiry?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2014 16:36:14 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? Barring a new product, I feel if Apple has a poor result (sub $14 EPS), that the following quarters will also be disappointing. However, if Apple has a great quarter, like above $15, the trend will continue for the year.
A $15+ quarter will prove iPad 5S/5C were massive hits along with the iPad Air and Mini Retina, which should continue throughout the year.
It's been like this the past 2 years, where a massive January in 2012 moved us from $400 to $700 in a few months and in 2013 when a bad January (based on expectations) moved us from $700 back down to $400.
What I wouldn't give for one more Apple sandbag quarter where they report $63B and around $15.50 EPS.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 2, 2014 16:53:57 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? Barring a new product, I feel if Apple has a poor result (sub $14 EPS), that the following quarters will also be disappointing. However, if Apple has a great quarter, like above $15, the trend will continue for the year. A $15+ quarter will prove iPad 5S/5C were massive hits along with the iPad Air and Mini Retina, which should continue throughout the year. Seems like pretty thin margin between "poor" and "great," but I guess that's how things have been for Apple for a while, yin or yang with little middle ground.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2014 17:09:30 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? Barring a new product, I feel if Apple has a poor result (sub $14 EPS), that the following quarters will also be disappointing. However, if Apple has a great quarter, like above $15, the trend will continue for the year. A $15+ quarter will prove iPad 5S/5C were massive hits along with the iPad Air and Mini Retina, which should continue throughout the year. It's been like this the past 2 years, where a massive January in 2012 moved us from $400 to $700 in a few months and in 2013 when a bad January (based on expectations) moved us from $700 back down to $400. What I wouldn't give for one more Apple sandbag quarter where they report $63B and around $15.50 EPS. Absolutely zero chance they turn in a lower EPS than last year. I think we're due for a solid quarter. I'm looking forward more to Q2 when we can start to realize the CM effect.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2014 17:44:47 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? Barring a new product, I feel if Apple has a poor result (sub $14 EPS), that the following quarters will also be disappointing. However, if Apple has a great quarter, like above $15, the trend will continue for the year. A $15+ quarter will prove iPad 5S/5C were massive hits along with the iPad Air and Mini Retina, which should continue throughout the year. Seems like pretty thin margin between "poor" and "great," but I guess that's how things have been for Apple for a while, yin or yang with little middle ground. I think anything under $14 is poor...anything in the $14's is OK and anything above $15 is great. That's my books anyways.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2014 20:04:00 GMT -8
Seems like pretty thin margin between "poor" and "great," but I guess that's how things have been for Apple for a while, yin or yang with little middle ground. I think anything under $14 is poor...anything in the $14's is OK and anything above $15 is great. That's my books anyways. Anything below $14.50c is going to mean a net income decrease y-o-y (higher EPS coming only from share count reduction). Anyone here that was against apple doing a share buyback might want to remember that.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,574
|
Post by mark on Jan 2, 2014 20:16:38 GMT -8
PCs, Tablets, TVs - Which of these three product categories earned more revenue in 2013? (Hint: It's the one category Apple doesn't currently compete in). Why should we care about revenue? Profit is where it's at!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2014 22:01:09 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? No. The December quarter is going to show essentially flat growth. The March quarter (Guidance), on the other hand, has the potential to show 20+% YoY growth.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 2, 2014 22:10:27 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? No. The December quarter is going to show essentially flat growth. The March quarter (Guidance), on the other hand, has the potential to show 20+% YoY growth. If we are expecting Apple to save the day with guidance it could be a very rough few months ..... we all know how conservative Peter O. is and despite the CM deal I don't expect that to change. Ironic that the higher they guide the less effective their buyback will be so for LONG term holders it should all work out .... I'll keep my fingers crossed but at this point margins, iPhone and iPad numbers seem to be all WS cares about
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2014 22:23:09 GMT -8
So does anyone else feel this next earnings release is the key for the entire 2014? No. The December quarter is going to show essentially flat growth. The March quarter (Guidance), on the other hand, has the potential to show 20+% YoY growth. But last March had most/all of the first few months of iPhone 5 for China and a few other major markets since the global launch was slow, compared to the launch of the 5S, which was almost everywhere meaningful right away. If this quarter doesn't show growth, I don't have much faith there will be growth next quarter.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 0:03:12 GMT -8
If we are expecting Apple to save the day with guidance it could be a very rough few months ..... we all know how conservative Peter O. is and despite the CM deal I don't expect that to change.( The next time I read someone call out Oppenheimer as "conservative", I'm going to start calling out IDIOTS. Under TC and PO Guidance has never been more accurate, a fact that shouldn't be lost on anyone. A great example of this was Apple's proxy of just this last week. In it Apple stated that their F2013 Revenue target was $170 Billion. Apple reported $170.931 Billion, a variance of 5.5%. Average variance of Guidance to Results, since PO and TC adopted a more accurate Guidance policy, has been 5.93%. Compare that to the Guidance proffered under SJ, when we had variances of 12% to 26%. It is NOT conservative to Guide accurately.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 0:08:08 GMT -8
No. The December quarter is going to show essentially flat growth. The March quarter (Guidance), on the other hand, has the potential to show 20+% YoY growth. But last March had most/all of the first few months of iPhone 5 for China and a few other major markets since the global launch was slow, compared to the launch of the 5S, which was almost everywhere meaningful right away. If this quarter doesn't show growth, I don't have much faith there will be growth next quarter. iPhone 5 growth was to 5S growth, as 4S growth was to 5, and so on. What's your point? How much growth do you need to see to believe it growth. And why would growth for the December quarter have anything to do with March quarter growth?
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 3, 2014 1:04:49 GMT -8
No. The December quarter is going to show essentially flat growth How do you (and can you) know this, Gregg?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 1:38:44 GMT -8
No. The December quarter is going to show essentially flat growth How do you (and can you) know this, Gregg? Its called Guidance.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 7:23:52 GMT -8
But last March had most/all of the first few months of iPhone 5 for China and a few other major markets since the global launch was slow, compared to the launch of the 5S, which was almost everywhere meaningful right away. If this quarter doesn't show growth, I don't have much faith there will be growth next quarter. iPhone 5 growth was to 5S growth, as 4S growth was to 5, and so on. What's your point? How much growth do you need to see to believe it growth. And why would growth for the December quarter have anything to do with March quarter growth? Are you serious? You don't think what happens in December has any effect on the March quarter? If Apple has a much larger rollout of the 5S in September/October/November, of course it's going to effect how many iPhones they sell in March. What I believe and what I'm saying is that Apple addressed more of their market in the first 3 months of the iPhone 5S launch than they did in the first 3 months of the iPhone 5 launch. So that has me worried about the next quarter. The only thing helping us next quarter is China Mobile, and no one really has any idea how much. Everything else will be less than the December quarter, because Apple always sells the most immediately after a products release.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 8:33:23 GMT -8
iPhone 5 growth was to 5S growth, as 4S growth was to 5, and so on. What's your point? How much growth do you need to see to believe it growth. And why would growth for the December quarter have anything to do with March quarter growth? Are you serious? You don't think what happens in December has any effect on the March quarter? If Apple has a much larger rollout of the 5S in September/October/November, of course it's going to effect how many iPhones they sell in March. What I believe and what I'm saying is that Apple addressed more of their market in the first 3 months of the iPhone 5S launch than they did in the first 3 months of the iPhone 5 launch. So that has me worried about the next quarter. The only thing helping us next quarter is China Mobile, and no one really has any idea how much. Everything else will be less than the December quarter, because Apple always sells the most immediately after a products release. You wouldn't be worried if you did some fucking due diligence, instead of baseless whining.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:03:48 GMT -8
Are you serious? You don't think what happens in December has any effect on the March quarter? If Apple has a much larger rollout of the 5S in September/October/November, of course it's going to effect how many iPhones they sell in March. What I believe and what I'm saying is that Apple addressed more of their market in the first 3 months of the iPhone 5S launch than they did in the first 3 months of the iPhone 5 launch. So that has me worried about the next quarter. The only thing helping us next quarter is China Mobile, and no one really has any idea how much. Everything else will be less than the December quarter, because Apple always sells the most immediately after a products release. You wouldn't be worried if you did some fucking due diligence, instead of baseless whining. You're a moron...you come here and tell us spew off about historical growth trends but what does that have to do with anything? If you said that last year, you would have got crushed because Apple's worst growth rate before last year was extremely high, how would that have worked out for you? So if it didn't help last year, why would it help this year? Just because someone is challenging you, doesn't make them an idiot...I've laid out some perfectly reasonable arguments on why Apple might not have a great March quarter...such as the fact the global rollout of the iPhone 5S and iPad Air/Retina Mini were better than last years. All you're coming back with "but growth has never been worse than X%"...so I repeat, how would that have helped you last year? If we leave out China Mobile, which should be massive, but unknown, I don't think there's any way Apple meets last years numbers. Yes, China Mobile will help, but no one has idea how much. So in summary, I'm hopeful for growth in Q2, but it's only based on China Mobile. Without China Mobile, this would have been a bad quarter.
|
|