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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 31, 2012 18:58:20 GMT -8
We're in mid-channel right now -- that area around the daily SMA-20 -- which is always the most treacherous because bulls and bears can get knocked out with equal intensity. And the indices are mid-channel too. So we can be cautiously optimistic, but watch out for whipsaws -- see past three bars on the SPY daily. That stinkbomb at 594 last time was a perfect example of mid-channel whipsaw. We have to get above the daily SMA-20 and STAY above and not give back ANY of it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 19:07:08 GMT -8
The daily chart would seem to imply a _little_ wiggle room there. Am I missing something? Hey, even if AAPL does a reflop around 570, I'll be happy enough.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 31, 2012 19:07:44 GMT -8
We're in mid-channel right now -- that area around the daily SMA-20 -- which is always the most treacherous because bulls and bears can get knocked out with equal intensity. And the indices are mid-channel too. So we can be cautiously optimistic, but watch out for whipsaws -- see past three bars on the SPY daily. That stinkbomb at 594 last time was a perfect example of mid-channel whipsaw. We have to get above the daily SMA-20 and STAY above and not give back ANY of it. Been saying that all day ;D I really would like to see us move above the 50 DMA this week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 19:10:53 GMT -8
IHS a possibility on the Nas btw? See Oct-now.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 17:49:28 GMT -8
Updated trendlines, plus my WAG on where we may be headed... AAPL DAILY CHART: trendlines
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Post by alice on Jan 3, 2013 18:56:18 GMT -8
Would you please give some details in words how to read the daily chart. I looked at it but don't understand. There maybe others that don't understand as well (I hope it is not only me not getting it.).
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 19:36:30 GMT -8
Mav, help!!!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 19:37:59 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 19:44:00 GMT -8
HEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE HAVE THE FIRST SMIDGE OF A BULLISH CROSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AAPL DAILY CHART: (with my notes*) * I don't know how else to explain how to read a chart. My explanations are ALL OVER over my annotated charts.
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Post by alice on Jan 3, 2013 19:53:55 GMT -8
It's the trendline chart I am not getting. There are so many lines. The chart 5 posts up.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 20:01:49 GMT -8
ME? I can't train _anyone_ in technicals!!
Alice, you _really_ have to parse the question. This stuff can't be grasped in a paragraph or even several pages. There's just too much.
Heck, even iPad doesn't have "total" knowledge of technicals. There's too many metrics and theories out there, and iPad is a formidable mind! (See, that's a compliment!)
Please don't hurt me.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 20:02:28 GMT -8
Oh THAT? That's a laser light show right iPad? ;D
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 20:05:12 GMT -8
It's the trendline chart I am not getting. There are so many lines. The chart 5 posts up. Alice, right now there is only one line to even think about. That is the line from 705 through 595. Tomorrow it will be around 551 it looks like, so it is coming down just over $2/day. Not that that is any consolation for us, but that is our line in the sand. If we fail to get above soon we will head the other direction. Lovey has a habit of posting charts that look like a Rorschach test. ;D Stick with the most important trend lines and moving averages. The 13 crossing the 20 is nice, but we can get excited when the 20 crosses the 50. The 50 is the most important. One day we might get back above it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 20:06:01 GMT -8
It's the trendline chart I am not getting. There are so many lines. The chart 5 posts up. The lines are support and resistance. Break through one, target the next one. Fail to break, turn around and go the other way. Right now, we are smooshed into a corner (I call it a corner smooshie), waiting to break above that white downtrend line. After that, we want to get above the red one and the purple one. It's a way to measure the progress we are making (or not making) in reclaiming the uptrend, reclaiming lost ground. Once we get above the purple line, I think we may have a clear shot to the yellow dotted line, potentially before earnings... but that's just a WAG. We have to take it level by level. Line by line.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 20:06:13 GMT -8
Oh THAT? That's a laser light show right iPad? ;D Looks like a dual Fib fan, good job.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2013 20:08:19 GMT -8
LOL!!! I love you guys!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 20:08:48 GMT -8
Oh THAT? That's a laser light show right iPad? ;D Looks like a dual Fib fan, good job. You know you're a technician if...
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Post by alice on Jan 3, 2013 20:21:55 GMT -8
Thanks iPad and Mb. The white line is the trendline from 705 through 595 that mb mentioned.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 3, 2013 20:31:49 GMT -8
Stick with the most important trend lines and moving averages. The 13 crossing the 20 is nice, but we can get excited when the 20 crosses the 50. The 50 is the most important. One day we might get back above it. The 50 day is working with us now. Going back 50 trading days, we are in the 620-630 range and about to start the 3 weeks of free fall when the. 200day collapsed. So over the next week or two, the 50day will drop about 1-1.5 points per day (assuming we don't jump up big immediately) which I think should make it more attainable. After 3 weeks it will go back up to take into account the 505-594 quick jump though. Looks like we have up to earnings almost exactly to break it and launch above it
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 20:37:54 GMT -8
terps, yes it is going to continue downward if we do not break above. That is the point, we need to get above to change its direction. As long as we are below, it is going down. It is not going to make any of us feel better if we get over it when it get to 520.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 3, 2013 20:41:11 GMT -8
Also what bums me out a bit, is how a crap macro situation could ruin things. Lets say macro was calm now. Nothing crazy good, but no big US/world issues due up soon that could greatly impact the market. I'd then feel pretty good about the possibility of some strong upside in the very near future.
But if our govt fails with this debt ceiling thing or who knows what else with the fed, taxes, xyz etc, it could mess up the overall market and thus aapl and its technicals. It's cruel!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 20:42:06 GMT -8
terps, yes it is going to continue downward if we do not break above. That is the point, we need to get above to change its direction. As long as we are below, it is going down. It is not going to make any of us feel better if we get over it when it get to 520. Disagree a bit. There's a bearish bias if AAPL can't break above. Not a certainty, though a strong probability. I think fundamentals have been helpful in "distorting" what some would otherwise seize upon as a broken chart/stock. If this were any other company with a higher multiple, I think the haircut would've been considerably worse. I _knew_ that mutant macro H&S many technicals people were seeing wouldn't trigger (the first go around, anyway). People aren't so bearish on AAPL to drive it under 500...yet. Hopefully Apple will turn in good-to-superior fiscal Q1 earnings to improve sentiment, which should in turn improve the technical picture. But if our govt fails with this debt ceiling thing or who knows what else with the fed, taxes, xyz etc, it could mess up the overall market and thus aapl and its technicals. It's cruel! Well, that just has to be in the background for us. Hopefully we're still far enough away from the deadline by earnings (5 weeks) that AAPL can trade on its own merits.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 20:52:09 GMT -8
Mav, it really is not in question. If we do not get above the 50 we are going down. It really is as simple as that. Especially the next 2 weeks because we are dropping off all those 600 numbers. The 50 DMA is almost in line with the DT line. Dropping just over 2 points a day. We have to get over just to slow it down.
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Post by alice on Jan 4, 2013 21:13:20 GMT -8
Mav, it really is not in question. If we do not get above the 50 we are going down. It really is as simple as that. Especially the next 2 weeks because we are dropping off all those 600 numbers. The 50 DMA is almost in line with the DT line. Dropping just over 2 points a day. We have to get over just to slow it down. Aapl has been under 600 for 2 months already.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 4, 2013 21:26:28 GMT -8
Mav, it really is not in question. If we do not get above the 50 we are going down. It really is as simple as that. Especially the next 2 weeks because we are dropping off all those 600 numbers. The 50 DMA is almost in line with the DT line. Dropping just over 2 points a day. We have to get over just to slow it down. Aapl has been under 600 for 2 months already. The 50 day moving average goes back in trading days, not calendar days. It is still in the 620's.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 13:11:23 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 13:20:08 GMT -8
Hm. Good BB hook "ended"?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 14:07:51 GMT -8
Hm. Good BB hook "ended"? Monday = very important short-term
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 14:15:23 GMT -8
Hm. Good BB hook "ended"? Monday = very important short-term Yes, and history is not on our side. The daily looks like crap now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 14:17:25 GMT -8
Hey, if we're all waiting around 'til earnings (which I'd prefer not happen), we just might have to...wait around 'til earnings.
But technicals don't predict. Monday awaits.
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