|
Post by phoebear611 on Jan 22, 2014 2:31:28 GMT -8
Good morning all ...markets open after a long US holiday weekend. The northeast is digging themselves out of a snowstorm in 10 degrees of blistery weather. Let's hope AAPL can bring some green warmth today and keep things going. A few news items: From engadget: A US judge has just awarded Apple two summary pre-trial judgements, significantly reducing Samsung's chances of prevailing in the second patent clash between the two tech giants. Judge Lucy Koh invalidated a Samsung multimedia synchronization patent and determined that the Korean company breached an Apple autocorrect IP -- meaning Koh thought the infringement was so clear that there was no need for a jury to see it. As Foss Patents pointed out, Google could also be unhappy about the autocorrect decision, since it may affect the entire Android ecosystem .... Here's the link if you care to read more www.engadget.com/2014/01/22/judge-summary-decision-apple-samsung/?ncid=rss_truncatedFrom benzinga: Apple's iPhone Phablet Will Pose A 'Serious Threat' To Samsung's High-End Market (Since when does Samsung have a "high end market"?) This article is all about the rumored products AAPL is supposedly due to announce in 2014. All speculation. It does mention, however that Samsung is debuting the S5 during the Mobile World Congress (Feb 24 thru Feb 27). Yesterday, Katy Huberty at MS had a positive note on AAPL. I was aware of Susquehanna's positive commentary but unaware Katy's commentary. For those of you who may have missed it as well - here it is: www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2014/01/22/apple-morgan-stanley-trumps-societe-generale/She's looking for $57.2 billion with gross margins at 37.3% - which gets her to $14.01 in EPS (Street is at $14.03) - she's looking for an iPhone number of 54-55 and an iPad number of 23 million (above Street estimates) Target price for her base case is $630 / bear case would be $440 and bull case $750. AAPL pretty much unchanged but slightly red this morning....enjoy your day!
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2014 4:16:23 GMT -8
IMHO: Apple needs sapphire in large quantities to make the face of the iWatch. I am impressed everyone is moving at a breakneck speed. GT Advanced, Apple's manufacturing partner for its new sapphire glass plant in Mesa, Arizona, has sent a postcard to local residents advertising for open positions at its new facility. A MacRumors reader who lives in Mesa sent us the postcard he received. The new facility is reported to have some 700 employees between both Apple and GT. The positions are separate from the job openings that Apple posted last week and they are likely for lower-level jobs than the more supervisory Apple roles. Jobs mentioned include Manufacturing Operators and Technicians, Process Engineering Manager, Metrology Manager and more. www.macrumors.com/2014/01/21/ft-advanced-recruitment-postcard/
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2014 4:35:33 GMT -8
TOO bad Apple can't make their $450,000 glass panels out of sapphire.... Several readers are reporting that a snowblower has accidentally knocked into and shattered one of the large glass panels at Apple’s iconic 5th avenue Apple Store. That’s one of 15 panels, and those large slices of glass were installed a couple of years ago. In total, the late-2011 renovation project to move from 90 glass panels to 15 cost Apple approximately $6.7 million. Doing the math (and excluding labor costs), Apple is looking at a roughly $450,000 bill to fix that glass panel. Reports say that the store has not been closed because of this damaged glass, and it’s unclear when Apple will conduct the replacement. More photos of the scene below: 9to5mac.com/2014/01/21/450k-panel-of-glass-at-apples-iconic-5th-avenue-cube-store-shattered-by-snowblower/
|
|
|
Post by cbingle on Jan 22, 2014 5:37:21 GMT -8
Looks like Goldman wants to pump and then dump some shares before ER. Pretty standard procedure
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jan 22, 2014 6:05:48 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2014 6:49:20 GMT -8
Uh oh...if Goldman is issuing a buy alert, that makes me nervous
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 22, 2014 6:59:19 GMT -8
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Jan 22, 2014 7:01:19 GMT -8
Uh oh...if Goldman is issuing a buy alert, that makes me nervous There's a surprise. Yes, I know what you're saying, but really aren't most of yr comments here angst-ridden? Apparently you aren't alone though as AAPL just went red. I guess good news in the courts and upgrades get trumped by broken glass store panels . . . Sheesh.
|
|
|
Post by zzmac on Jan 22, 2014 7:42:55 GMT -8
A full 1/3 of those estimates were submitted in 2013 and a lot of those were submitted as far back as October. Clearly a lot of research goes into this. I wonder who they all picked to win the Super Bowl last year?
|
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447
|
Post by icam on Jan 22, 2014 7:46:34 GMT -8
Carl Icahn is tweeting again. AAPL is the topic. He's purchased another $500 million of AAPL. Called it a "no brainer". He also believes Apples plans for it's cash is a "disservice to shareholders".
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 22, 2014 7:53:35 GMT -8
Carl Icahn is tweeting again. AAPL is the topic. He's purchased another $500 million of AAPL. Called it a "no brainer". He also believes Apples plans for it's cash is a "disservice to shareholders". I was really hoping that he was selling his stake and walking away after the board shot down his plan .... oh well.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2014 8:01:56 GMT -8
Carl Icahn is tweeting again. AAPL is the topic. He's purchased another $500 million of AAPL. Called it a "no brainer". He also believes Apples plans for it's cash is a "disservice to shareholders".
FWIW: I agree with Carl!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2014 8:13:59 GMT -8
I agree with Icahn as well...Apple has way more than it needs for Operations and history has shown that it's not in the business of large takeovers, so why keep 150B just sitting around earning nothing? Increase the buyback another 50B in the next 12 months is what I would like.
I'm curious if anything will get announced Monday or if they'll wait until April...cause didn't Tim say they'd address the possibility of an increased buyback/dividend "in the new year"?
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2014 9:06:34 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mcharliem on Jan 22, 2014 9:12:02 GMT -8
I'm curious if anything will get announced Monday or if they'll wait until April...cause didn't Tim say they'd address the possibility of an increased buyback/dividend "in the new year"? There's probably a good chance that Apple will announce any increase in buyback the same time they announce any increase in their dividend. You can use the conversion pricing of options to determine at least what the market thinks the dividend will be and when. Right now, the market is pricing in no dividend prior to Jan 31, a $2.80 dividend prior to Feb 7th, and a roughly $3.10 to $3.15 dividend prior to Feb 14th. So that's basically saying there's a roughly 90% chance that Apple's next dividend will have an ex-date prior to 2/7 and 100% chance it'll be prior to 2/14. They're also pricing in a small chance it ends up being more than $3.05. So if nothing else, the market thinks there's at least a slight chance that Apple raises its dividend on this earnings report, and who knows, maybe their buyback as well?
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jan 22, 2014 9:12:42 GMT -8
I agree with Carl Icahn's "it's a no brainer" at these prices, but will qualify any agreement I may have on the buy back. Yes Apple has more cash/cash equivalents than needed but to repatriate now would be expensive and more debt based on cash available within the US is limited.
Over a year ago it was estimated that corporations held over $1.7 trillion overseas and it is growing. The pressure on our government to either allow repatriation or tax these holdings will only escalate. So in effect the decision will probably be made for Apple eventually.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2014 9:20:11 GMT -8
Uh, remember that Apple can't use offshore cash for capital return without that tax hit no sane company would submit to. And borrowing would hurt Apple's credit rating at some point.
More posturing by Uncle Carl. But hey, if it helps AAPL, it's all good. He can buy $20B if he wants - he still can't take control. Icahn knows this I think - which oddly puts/keeps him on "our side". Apple will increase the capital return program by some amount by April IMHO, Icahn will say it's not enough, all will be well. As long as he isn't able to meaningfully change up the Board...
|
|
|
Post by BillH on Jan 22, 2014 9:23:06 GMT -8
I agree with Icahn as well...Apple has way more than it needs for Operations and history has shown that it's not in the business of large takeovers, so why keep 150B just sitting around earning nothing? Increase the buyback another 50B in the next 12 months is what I would like. I'm curious if anything will get announced Monday or if they'll wait until April...cause didn't Tim say they'd address the possibility of an increased buyback/dividend "in the new year"? Again, without knowledge of what their plans may be I just don't know how one could form an opinion about the wisdom of their chosen path.
|
|
|
Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 22, 2014 9:25:34 GMT -8
Hello Board! Long time lurker, (over a year) first time post. Just want to thank all of the faithful Apple followers for the lively and informative discussion. As you can see from my user name, I came to Macs very early in my film music career and never looked back. They've always been the premium software and hardware platform for creatives.
My 1st hypothetical question for the board. Given the lukewarm market reaction to possible GAME CHANGING news about China Mobile, (ugh!) can we conclude Mr. Market wants to see these two things from AAPL.?
1) Earnings growth
2) "New" killer disruptive product category*
Until both are fulfilled we stay range-bound and the plaything of the weekly option traders....?
The irony is that even without #2, I have very cautious optimism about #1 (which we hope to see from next weeks earnings release). But will wall street will still find a way to spin and rationalize even the best of news from AAPL next week? I sure hope I'm prooven wrong. but the weekly option manipulation and FUD seem to stick to aapl like glue.
-very long (and probably a bit over-invested) AAPL and 2014-15 LEAP shareholder!
|
|
|
Post by incorrigible on Jan 22, 2014 9:28:24 GMT -8
While the tax hit on repatriation of cash sucks, the Apple board needs to remember: It's not their money. It's the shareholders. I'd prefer a large buyback to a dividend increase but holding on to such a large sum is ridiculous IMO.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2014 9:29:23 GMT -8
I agree with Icahn as well...Apple has way more than it needs for Operations and history has shown that it's not in the business of large takeovers, so why keep 150B just sitting around earning nothing? Increase the buyback another 50B in the next 12 months is what I would like. I'm curious if anything will get announced Monday or if they'll wait until April...cause didn't Tim say they'd address the possibility of an increased buyback/dividend "in the new year"? Again, without knowledge of what their plans may be I just don't know how one could form an opinion about the wisdom of their chosen path. I'm just saying Apple has never been known to make large takeovers, and I believe I read somewhere that their cash was enough to fund operations past 2020, so I fail to see what they could use that cash for. I don't believe they should re-patriate the cash, but instead do another bond offering. The last one got extremely good rates, so if they can get near that again, why not?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2014 9:33:38 GMT -8
Hello Board! Long time lurker, (over a year) first time post. Just want to thank all of the faithful Apple followers for the lively and informative discussion. As you can see from my user name, I came to Macs very early in my film music career and never looked back. They've always been the premium software and hardware platform for creatives. My 1st hypothetical question for the board. Given the lukewarm market reaction to possible GAME CHANGING news about China Mobile, (ugh!) can we conclude Mr. Market wants to see these two things from AAPL.? 1) Earnings growth 2) "New" killer disruptive product category* Until both are fulfilled we stay range-bound and the plaything of the weekly option traders....? The irony is that even without #2, I have very cautious optimism about #1 (which we hope to see from next weeks earnings release). But will wall street will still find a way to spin and rationalize even the best of news from AAPL next week? I sure hope I'm prooven wrong. but the weekly option manipulation and FUD seem to stick to aapl like glue. -very long (and probably a bit over-invested) AAPL and 2014-15 LEAP shareholder! Personally I don't believe we're range bound at all...perhaps in the short term, but Apple was sitting below 400 in July. It's been in the mid 500's for a few months, but I think that's a fair value. If they prove they can grow earnings at a 10%+ clip, it should break $600. A new product category is probably a requirement to grow EPS more thna 10 - 15% though, so hopefully we see something in the first half of the year.
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 22, 2014 9:39:47 GMT -8
How can we really know what is best for Apple's cash horde? Do we really know that they won't need a large chunk of money to fund iwallet to take on Visa, Mastercard and Amex. As I understand it, it is a pretty cash intensive business. What about other new products or the possible move into TV content etc. Can we really be this arrogant to think we know better than Apple's leadership? Otherwise, it just seems to me that we end up sounding like Henry Blodgett (or however you spell his name) and that can only be a disservice to Apple. If you are involved in owning Apple as a long-term investment (Friday will mark the 6th anniversary of my first share purchase) then we simply have to have faith in Apple's management. Otherwise you should not be long. As for options from retail, it strikes me that this is a big problem for AAPL. I am an investment advisor, have followed the story very closely and most of my clients are long APPL.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
|
Post by bud777 on Jan 22, 2014 9:49:44 GMT -8
How can we really know what is best for Apple's cash horde? Do we really know that they won't need a large chunk of money to fund iwallet to take on Visa, Mastercard and Amex. As I understand it, it is a pretty cash intensive business. What about other new products or the possible move into TV content etc. Can we really be this arrogant to think we know better than Apple's leadership? Otherwise, it just seems to me that we end up sounding like Henry Blodgett (or however you spell his name) and that can only be a disservice to Apple. If you are involved in owning Apple as a long-term investment (Friday will mark the 6th anniversary of my first share purchase) then we simply have to have faith in Apple's management. Otherwise you should not be long. As for options from retail, it strikes me that this is a big problem for AAPL. I am an investment advisor, have followed the story very closely and most of my clients are long APPL. "Apple has way more than it needs for Operations and history has shown that it's not in the business of large takeovers, so why keep 150B just sitting around earning nothing? Increase the buyback another 50B in the next 12 months is what I would like." Apparently we can be.
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jan 22, 2014 10:01:05 GMT -8
Backstop by value activist investors Good legal vibes Samsung s5 will heralded as the 5s clone with fingerprint iPad pro and iPhone biggie on the horizon One or two new categories this year and perhaps a service or two like iwallet App Store for Apple TV China mobile New retail head Likely divvy and/or buy back increase Some diversification on the board of directors
Lots of good stuff.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2014 10:03:59 GMT -8
How can we really know what is best for Apple's cash horde? Do we really know that they won't need a large chunk of money to fund iwallet to take on Visa, Mastercard and Amex. As I understand it, it is a pretty cash intensive business. What about other new products or the possible move into TV content etc. Can we really be this arrogant to think we know better than Apple's leadership? Otherwise, it just seems to me that we end up sounding like Henry Blodgett (or however you spell his name) and that can only be a disservice to Apple. If you are involved in owning Apple as a long-term investment (Friday will mark the 6th anniversary of my first share purchase) then we simply have to have faith in Apple's management. Otherwise you should not be long. As for options from retail, it strikes me that this is a big problem for AAPL. I am an investment advisor, have followed the story very closely and most of my clients are long APPL. Even if the were funding an "iWallet", how much of a cash hoard does Visa or Mastercard have? Visa has around 2.2B of cash on its balance sheets and under 8B of "Other Current Assets". Does anyone think they need more than 20B for this when it requires Visa 1/3 of that? Management can be great at many things...it doesn't mean they're great at utilizing too much cash. Even Steve Jobs said they had more cash than they needed, and that was 5+ years ago and probably 100B ago. It's a great problem to have, but does anyone actually think they need 150B cash when Free Cash Flow is 45B in a year? It's frankly a waste of shareholders money to have it just sitting there doing nothing.
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 22, 2014 10:04:13 GMT -8
Exactly Nagrani!
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2014 10:38:27 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by firestorm on Jan 22, 2014 10:46:48 GMT -8
How can we really know what is best for Apple's cash horde? Do we really know that they won't need a large chunk of money to fund iwallet to take on Visa, Mastercard and Amex. As I understand it, it is a pretty cash intensive business. What about other new products or the possible move into TV content etc. Can we really be this arrogant to think we know better than Apple's leadership? Otherwise, it just seems to me that we end up sounding like Henry Blodgett (or however you spell his name) and that can only be a disservice to Apple. If you are involved in owning Apple as a long-term investment (Friday will mark the 6th anniversary of my first share purchase) then we simply have to have faith in Apple's management. Otherwise you should not be long. As for options from retail, it strikes me that this is a big problem for AAPL. I am an investment advisor, have followed the story very closely and most of my clients are long APPL. Even if the were funding an "iWallet", how much of a cash hoard does Visa or Mastercard have? Visa has around 2.2B of cash on its balance sheets and under 8B of "Other Current Assets". Does anyone think they need more than 20B for this when it requires Visa 1/3 of that? Management can be great at many things...it doesn't mean they're great at utilizing too much cash. Even Steve Jobs said they had more cash than they needed, and that was 5+ years ago and probably 100B ago. It's a great problem to have, but does anyone actually think they need 150B cash when Free Cash Flow is 45B in a year? It's frankly a waste of shareholders money to have it just sitting there doing nothing. I suspect that Steve Jobs didn't believe that the cash belonged to the shareholders; I suspect he believed that he and his staff had earned it in a sense, and that it was a measuring stick of how successful the company had become. Give it back to the shareholders and the measuring stick looks diminished. Or perhaps I'm projecting; I know that if I had launched a company that had become the most successful in the history of the world, I would have a hard time giving most of it back to shareholders, who I might (rightly or wrongly) perceive are just along for the ride. Corporations, after all, take on the stamp of their leaders and are not necessarily impersonal aggregates who always make dispassionate and rational decisions.
|
|
|
Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 22, 2014 10:59:46 GMT -8
That is probably very true firestorm but Steve Jobs doesn't run the company anymore and I am sure Tim and the rest of the board members are well aware of the responsibility they have to the shareholders today. Anyway, back to work............
|
|