|
Post by wheeles on Nov 7, 2012 15:09:48 GMT -8
OK, so either we bottomed or we didn't. Pretty obvious statement, I know. The only way to be sure is to break all the trend lines that are pointing down, and that includes the weekly one. To break that one, we would need to open next week above 600, so for now don't expect the momo traders to get back on board until then. Previously I stated that if I had to pick a line to bottom at then it would be the weekly 50 EMA. We hit that today and had the sort of bottoming pattern and volume that I would have expected. The only other level that was under consideration below this was the monthly 13 EMA. Given the way that can move up and down, a decent climb from here would see that one be hit too at the end of the month even if there is not an explicit striking of that line. Sometimes these lines get retrospectively hit like that. Anyway, if this is the bottom, then we need to look back at various trend lines in several timeframes. When we get a parabolic move, up or down, I employ several ways of redrawing my trend lines to better hug the price. I did that a lot with the 1H and 4H charts today. On both timeframes we are now on the upside of both redrawn lines, but to confirm a break of both we really need AAPL to close a bar above 564. If we clear 564, then we need to go back to the daily chart for the next downward trend line that will resist a move higher. I've also redrawn this line a little to account for the move down. From the chart that looks like 579-580 tomorrow. This also looks like the 4H middle Bollinger. What we might see is a move up to that line and then a move back down to the 4H lower Bollinger. If we power above that line, then we really need to see a daily close above 590 to indicate that the trend line is broken. Somehow, I don't think we'll see a 30 buck reversal tomorrow, but never say never.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 17:24:55 GMT -8
Good stuff, Birdie!! Thank you!!
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 18:13:30 GMT -8
Scott Redler tweeted last night about a "nice descending channel that resolved to the upside " for WDC. "At some point we will get that pattern in AAPL. Patience."
You can see that in your chart, Wheeles.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 19:41:22 GMT -8
Scott Redler tweeted last night about a "nice descending channel that resolved to the upside " for WDC. "At some point we will get that pattern in AAPL. Patience." You can see that in your chart, Wheeles. RG, again, I like your optimism, but it took 3 months for WDC to bottom. AAPL got a catalyst on Monday and blew it off. 7 straight weeks of down, simply amazing.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 4:19:04 GMT -8
Scott Redler tweeted last night about a "nice descending channel that resolved to the upside " for WDC. "At some point we will get that pattern in AAPL. Patience." You can see that in your chart, Wheeles. I rarely use lines that try to cap moves. So in a down channel I tend to only have the top line (I did make an exception the other day with the chart I posted). Likewise with a wedge I'll tend to only draw the line that is following the price. The reason for this is that the price can drop out of the bottom of downward channels and bust above the top of upward channels. The same applies to wedges etc. Simply stated, if the price is going with a trend, I want to stay with it, not leap out because I've hit a line that I plucked out of the air. A break of a trend line on a shorter timeframe should tell me to exit. I know that there are longer term trend lines out there and they are sitting on my longer timeframe charts. I try to only draw trend lines that are applicable to the timeframe in question. Occasionally, I will draw a line to illustrate a point, but I prefer to leave the longer trend lines to longer term charts. Sure, you could draw all the trend lines on every chart, and some people do. However, I have more than enough lines on my charts without adding tons more.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 7:44:42 GMT -8
Well we didn't manage to close a 1H or 4H bar above 564 in the PM and ran headlong into what looked like a capitulation. Another one. Clearly the previous low wasn't enough. So now we have a definite tag of the monthly 13 EMA and the weekly lower Bollinger and STARC bands, which really does not happen that often at all. We also had the price hitting the 4H, 1H, 10m and 2m lower STARC bands all at the same time. Add in the couple of million shares traded in 5 minutes and that really is all the capitulation boxes ticked. If we still go down from here, then someone's HFT machine is broken or someone really has it in for AAPL (or those idiots at Rochdale).
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 9:04:45 GMT -8
I love you, Birdie!! Another great post!!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 9:10:39 GMT -8
What now? If this is how capitulation is: Sustained resistance against gravity? Slow float to erase some losses? Huge rally? How much volume is enough today? 30M? 40M? Just asking out loud. Oh and since it's weekly charts might we get the vaunted lower low on higher low MACD-h bar this week?
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 9:25:11 GMT -8
What now? If this is how capitulation is: Sustained resistance against gravity? Slow float to erase some losses? Huge rally? How much volume is enough today? 30M? 40M? Just asking out loud. Oh and since it's weekly charts might we get the vaunted lower low on higher low MACD-h bar this week? I rarely look at the daily volume. I honestly think you can spot a capitulatory move within a 15 minute period as that's when you get a huge spike in volume.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 10:53:34 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART (with my notes):
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 11:22:19 GMT -8
Important week for AAPL ahead. I'd have a hard time seeing AAPL make an MACD-h bar lower than this one, which is an all-time record, apparently.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 12:19:58 GMT -8
Important week for AAPL ahead. I'd have a hard time seeing AAPL make an MACD-h bar lower than this one, which is an all-time record, apparently. Agree with this, the MACD will continue down below the zero line even with an up week. trace back and you will see that it does not happen often. (going below zero line)
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 12:26:36 GMT -8
Y'know what, maybe I should read up more on MACD-h. I know it'll be negative for quite some time, but I don't know what'll it'll take to put in a less negative bar for next week.
All I _think_ I know is that MACD-h has never been this negative on the weekly. Is that just a function of AAPL's stock price being higher in absolute terms, even though previous downwaves have been far worse in terms of percent?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 12:29:57 GMT -8
Hey iPad, what's with the five-segment red \/\/\ pattern thingy? EW I'm sure, but is it "suggesting" that this could be the final downwave of what I guess you could call a violent consolidation trend?
Also, wondering why that pattern isn't traced out from April-September 2010 on your weekly chart.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 12:33:46 GMT -8
Two other questions - should we be "concerned" that the Fast STO isn't yet reflecting a big bounce from all the prior "red circle" moments?
And is it possible for your chart to time-shift back or something to cover the 2007-2009 corrective phase?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 12:39:28 GMT -8
Yes, multi-posting, but hey, different subjects (EDIT: See? Even changed the subject line!), so deal with it. I find Mr. Horseshoe over at StockTwits hard to follow sometimes, but just looking at this post (about the 50-week moving average) for what it is...hmm. My thinking is, if AAPL kinda rolls over or hibernates for the next few weeks, it'd be very difficult for tech to rally. Maybe even the rest of the market. stocktwits.com/message/10480967EDIT: See if your June 2006 data is the same as mine. If it matches up, at least for AAPL SMA-50 weekly is a super-important level to hold.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 13:51:29 GMT -8
Two other questions - should we be "concerned" that the Fast STO isn't yet reflecting a big bounce from all the prior "red circle" moments? And is it possible for your chart to time-shift back or something to cover the 2007-2009 corrective phase? How could it show a bounce? We have not bounced. The longer it stay down here one would think it would have to move up eventually.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 13:54:55 GMT -8
The fast STO did show a bounce.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 13:58:50 GMT -8
The fast STO did show a bounce. I guess if you consider 13 a bounce, then yes, I guess you are right. lol
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 15:19:55 GMT -8
EMA-50 vs. SMA-50 on the weekly...maybe we'll just go with SMA-50 because it's a little lower.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 10, 2012 20:21:20 GMT -8
Looking at MACD (3,10,0), this October downwave is registering a -39, while the three other ones (June '11, Nov. '11, May '12) were -10's.
I know how they recovered, and it was nice. But could we extrapolate from that? Could this be a measure of the strength of the slingshot being pulled back?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 14:22:58 GMT -8
Need to reclaim SMA/EMA-50... AAPL WEEKLY CHART (with my notes):
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 14:25:21 GMT -8
I don't know what to do with the damn dividend adjustments. Of my platforms, only stockcharts.com adjusts for them -- none of the others. It's messing with my Fibs!
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 14:50:12 GMT -8
Is it me or is there NOT ONE positive bit of commentary on your notes...you're killing me.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 15:17:56 GMT -8
The ONLY positive is the potential bullish divergence and positive slope on the more sensitive MACD-h.
Phoebes, the technicals blow right now. This is the worst I've ever seen them. Which makes me think we're close to a bottom, of course, but the annoying thing is WHERE and WHEN.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 13, 2012 16:09:38 GMT -8
One positive is that one of those girls on the bottom of the chart was smokin hoooooot! ;D (probably got a smite coming for that, LOL)
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Nov 14, 2012 18:13:27 GMT -8
I know it's not the end of the week, but I just took a look at my weekly Ichimoku chart. What will be of comfort to some is that AAPL is now sitting in the top of the Kumo. This should provide a good amount of support. You rarely see the price slice through the Kumo, and AAPL has not hit its weekly one since 2009. So, while we might be sitting around these levels for 3 or 4 weeks, if a comparable period of time (early 2008) is anything to go by, AAPL should start to bottom out and pull its way out of this nose-dive.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 19:03:45 GMT -8
LOL, Mark!
Thank you, Birdie!!!
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 19:43:29 GMT -8
Yep, I was right, I did get a smite for it. LOL
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 19:55:41 GMT -8
Yep, I was right, I did get a smite for it. LOL I didn't do it!!!
|
|