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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 19:58:09 GMT -8
Yep, I was right, I did get a smite for it. LOL I didn't do it!!! I know it was not you, you are one cool chick. If I could afford it I would buy you a beer.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 17, 2012 12:05:40 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 13:32:34 GMT -8
I wonder, can you pull the weekly chart from, say 2005-2008? Very curious what that looks like. Of course I'm not asking for annotations.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 17, 2012 17:35:52 GMT -8
AAPL 2005-2009 WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 17:54:01 GMT -8
Thanks!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 13:24:56 GMT -8
Could this be the strongest SMA-50 weekly failure ever?!
I think it is!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 24, 2012 17:37:19 GMT -8
If you take a look at the weekly chart, we have just finished (hopefully) 8 or so weeks of increasingly negative MACD, which got as low as about -18 or -19. This is actually slightly more (in absolute value) than the highest MACD that we had during the parabolic run-up, which peaked at about +17. So I guess you could say we have had in the last two months the inverse of the parabolic run-up.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2012 17:53:42 GMT -8
I don't think you get a parabolic downwave (if there is such a thing) without some nice power on the way back up, unless the world's economies or whatever go to hell in a handbasket. AAPL recoveries from the SMA-50 weekly since 2006 show encouraging (though obviously nothing more than historical) signs.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 25, 2012 16:13:29 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 25, 2012 16:32:24 GMT -8
Forgive my relative focus on that Blue Bar...of Awesome. ;D (/joke at that "other" forum's expense)
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 26, 2012 14:48:50 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 26, 2012 20:15:28 GMT -8
Blue Bar of Awesome! (A humble, sophomoric request to put near the SMA-50 weekly failure: "Honey Badger don't care." ) And, although history is "useless", history (SMA-50 weekly recoveries) may also be on our side. (/crypticish) (/not really)
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 30, 2012 14:35:01 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART: So far, so good. Currently smooshed between EMA-13 and SMA-50. Now we wait to see if the next move takes us up through EMA-13 to test SMA-20, or down to retest SMA-50.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 14:22:50 GMT -8
"Mean reversion"? EDIT to save on posts: I "don't want to" bring this up (of course I do, it's a manner of speaking! ), but let's say AAPL gets close to the SMA-100 weekly... Which, as far back as freestockcharts.com measures if it's accurate, only happened ONCE since 2005 or something... (At that point, I might try an options strangle play.)
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 19:02:12 GMT -8
Separate thought.
EMA-21 monthly? Any significance there?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 11:42:43 GMT -8
Group exercise... What do you see in this chart? How would you interpret what you see? What story are these indicators telling us: Bollinger bands, moving averages, Fast Sto, MACD-h... anything else...? AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 12:41:52 GMT -8
Honestly?
"Superficially" this weekly chart is awful.
Range indeterminate (expanding), embedded downtrend, STO a poor "indicator" of bouncing, SMA-50 weekly refail looms HUGE.
Does anyone know the last time SMA-100 was even touched? I think I have the answer from as 2005-ish anyway.
Macro mutant H&S plus smaller one (Nov) also kinda visible IMHO
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Post by wheeles on Dec 9, 2012 15:51:04 GMT -8
Group exercise... What do you see in this chart? Lots of fugliness. The monthly looks even worse.
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 15:52:30 GMT -8
"Nice." Looks like full agreement there, wheeles. :/
EXCEPT the monthly might not look AS bad as you make it out to be depending on where you focus.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 9, 2012 16:04:12 GMT -8
Someone on another thread posted a chart of Fidelity having dumped a boat load of shares.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 16:08:32 GMT -8
Uh...attempt at humor there...?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 9, 2012 16:17:07 GMT -8
"Nice." Looks like full agreement there, wheeles. :/ EXCEPT the monthly might not look AS bad as you make it out to be depending on where you focus. Yeah, if you're short it's frackin' lovely.
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 16:31:30 GMT -8
C'mon! EMA-21 monthly hasn't broken! That's something, right?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 9, 2012 16:33:36 GMT -8
Is it safe to say that the only thing that saves the day here - IF THAT - is a macro event - ie Washington announcement? But short of that, we are heading lower based on technicals -- correct?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 16:34:09 GMT -8
I wouldn't say that (though I'm an idiot). I'd say the bias certainly looks like DOWN.
The Battle for 530 is the first point of assessment.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 9, 2012 17:05:33 GMT -8
Is it safe to say that the only thing that saves the day here - IF THAT - is a macro event - ie Washington announcement? But short of that, we are heading lower based on technicals -- correct? My first downtrend line on the monthly went in on 1st November. That has yet to be broken. As far as I am concerned, we remain in a long term downtrend until it is.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 17:21:12 GMT -8
Is it safe to say that the only thing that saves the day here - IF THAT - is a macro event - ie Washington announcement? But short of that, we are heading lower based on technicals -- correct? The only thing that saves the day is sellers' exhaustion. Right now, the power is with the buyers. If buyers hold out for lower prices, and forced margin liquidations dump market orders to sell (hitting progressively lower bids), we get feedback loops to the downside.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 17:24:32 GMT -8
Okay, one thing I want to note here that I have never myself experienced... Birdie, Mav, you've been trading AAPL longer than I have. See the weekly MACD line...it's crossed below the center/zero line. That indicates a long-term, multi-month downtrend/ consolidation period. While downtrends can have upwaves (note the 505 to 595 run), this to me means sideways in a possibly huge range...but still sideways until that line gets back into positive territory.
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 17:33:47 GMT -8
Is it safe to say that the only thing that saves the day here - IF THAT - is a macro event - ie Washington announcement? But short of that, we are heading lower based on technicals -- correct? My first downtrend line on the monthly went in on 1st November. That has yet to be broken. As far as I am concerned, we remain in a long term downtrend until it is. The weekly downtrend for AAPL looks fugly until AAPL pulled out of the tailspin at 522 in May. So I'm not forecasting a long cold winter for AAPL just yet. Of course, I could change my mind on that within 30 minutes after market open. To give one example, a weak gap up Monday is (1) not what I would want to see, and (2) something I could well test a put strategy on.
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 17:34:40 GMT -8
So iPad, your question/request for feedback is...?
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