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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 17, 2014 17:31:33 GMT -8
The bar is open...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 17, 2014 18:51:54 GMT -8
The weekend already, huh. Have fun all.
Earnings in just a few days.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2014 20:01:47 GMT -8
I highly recommend the movie/documentary "Inside Job," chronicling what passes for business as usual on WS. It's on iTunes. Just wow.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 18, 2014 14:01:34 GMT -8
Well, PED - ordinarily the best Apple reporter out there - is running his usual "How many XXXX has Apple sold this quarter?" pieces, replete with all the dart board guesses, by both the usual pro and amateur dart players. And, of course, Robert Paul Leitao is bloviating like he's an expert and actually has clue one what is happening in Cupertino and the supply chain.
Am I the only one who finds it utterly ridiculous that the guesses of these charlatans are published every 3 months as if they have the slightest bit of veracity? Seriously, I want to program a Web page where we can all randomly launch darts at a dartboard, with EPS and Revs and # of products sold on the board, and submit the results to PED each quarter. I bet we would finish in the upper half.
Anyway, I hope you all have a great Easter weekend, and that we all have a great Wednesday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2014 14:14:47 GMT -8
I noticed how there isn't much buildup in PED's series either. He's only starting things a few days before earnings.
Call it another early warning sign for the AAPL barometer - just when Apple seems even more passé than usual to those who can't see far in front of their noses...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2014 15:01:02 GMT -8
There are fewer people throwing darts this time, so that's some kind of progress. With the bloggers setting expectations artificially high, it's just more reason for WS to knock Apple down if they "miss" a unit sales number on iPads, iPhones, whatever. PED doesn't believe it counts for anything, but I'm not so sure -- expectations for Apple have always been a hurdle.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 18, 2014 15:08:01 GMT -8
Well, PED - ordinarily the best Apple reporter out there - is running his usual "How many XXXX has Apple sold this quarter?" pieces, replete with all the dart board guesses, by both the usual pro and amateur dart players. And, of course, Robert Paul Leitao is bloviating like he's an expert and actually has clue one what is happening in Cupertino and the supply chain. Am I the only one who finds it utterly ridiculous that the guesses of these charlatans are published every 3 months as if they have the slightest bit of veracity? Seriously, I want to program a Web page where we can all randomly launch darts at a dartboard, with EPS and Revs and # of products sold on the board, and submit the results to PED each quarter. I bet we would finish in the upper half. Anyway, I hope you all have a great Easter weekend, and that we all have a great Wednesday. I posted the following in response to the idea of posting price targets, as some kind of public good. I lost and generated some bad will. I feel the same way about the earnings estimates, but didn't bother after getting slapped down on this one. Gregg posted after someone called the estimates worthless and I agreed. If you are a buy and forget dividend collector they are absolutely worthless. Any other kind of trading requires the trader/investor to have a price target, otherwise he/she is shooting in the dark. Do you really want "the public" basing their trading decisions on the price targets of this group? Is the purpose of publishing these estimates not to portray Braeburn as some sort of trusted source of this type of forecast? I see no other reason for these numbers to be published - but to assist people outside of this group who basically have no idea how these numbers come about. I have been hanging around here since the fall of 2012, and frankly I think it is irresponsible to be publishing these targets. None of us have any real data to peer through the fog, and thereby arrive at anything close to credible. Price targets are a complete shot in the dark. Want further evidence?: Braeburn price target Aug 11/12 - $950 Braeburn price target Sept 9/12 - $900 Braeburn price target Dec 17/12 - $827 Braeburn price target March 3/13 - $610 I know if I was participating in setting these targets, I would feel pretty bad if anyone took these numbers and acted on them. I get why these numbers exist for internal consumption. I don't get why they are made available to outsiders.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 18, 2014 21:32:10 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Apr 18, 2014 21:53:37 GMT -8
Well, PED - ordinarily the best Apple reporter out there - is running his usual "How many XXXX has Apple sold this quarter?" pieces, replete with all the dart board guesses, by both the usual pro and amateur dart players. And, of course, Robert Paul Leitao is bloviating like he's an expert and actually has clue one what is happening in Cupertino and the supply chain. Am I the only one who finds it utterly ridiculous that the guesses of these charlatans are published every 3 months as if they have the slightest bit of veracity? Seriously, I want to program a Web page where we can all randomly launch darts at a dartboard, with EPS and Revs and # of products sold on the board, and submit the results to PED each quarter. I bet we would finish in the upper half. Anyway, I hope you all have a great Easter weekend, and that we all have a great Wednesday. We all know these guys JD and I don't think it's fair to label them charlatan's even if it's academically correct. I agree that spending time forecasting Apple earnings isn't what it once was now that Apples own forecasting seems to be fairly close to the mark. Robert's point in performing the exercise was that it would help the participant's better understand their investment. I'm guessing this is probably true. I can also say that TommoUK's forecasting and Roberts observations on how some of his clients had acquired/extended their wealth were tremendously helpful to me back in the early iPod days of all this. Ped's decision to publish it every 3 months? I suppose it keeps the discussion framed for what investors should really pay attention to so it's probably a good thing at the end of the day. As far as the accuracy goes...,no one...,no one has been consistently on target with their forecasts whether we're talking Robert's group or the daily traders. Just my observation.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 19, 2014 3:37:06 GMT -8
Well, PED - ordinarily the best Apple reporter out there - is running his usual "How many XXXX has Apple sold this quarter?" pieces, replete with all the dart board guesses, by both the usual pro and amateur dart players. And, of course, Robert Paul Leitao is bloviating like he's an expert and actually has clue one what is happening in Cupertino and the supply chain. Am I the only one who finds it utterly ridiculous that the guesses of these charlatans are published every 3 months as if they have the slightest bit of veracity? Seriously, I want to program a Web page where we can all randomly launch darts at a dartboard, with EPS and Revs and # of products sold on the board, and submit the results to PED each quarter. I bet we would finish in the upper half. Anyway, I hope you all have a great Easter weekend, and that we all have a great Wednesday. We all know these guys JD and I don't think it's fair to label them charlatan's even if it's academically correct. I agree that spending time forecasting Apple earnings isn't what it once was now that Apples own forecasting seems to be fairly close to the mark. Robert's point in performing the exercise was that it would help the participant's better understand their investment. I'm guessing this is probably true. I can also say that TommoUK's forecasting and Roberts observations on how some of his clients had acquired/extended their wealth were tremendously helpful to me back in the early iPod days of all this. Ped's decision to publish it every 3 months? I suppose it keeps the discussion framed for what investors should really pay attention to so it's probably a good thing at the end of the day. As far as the accuracy goes...,no one...,no one has been consistently on target with their forecasts whether we're talking Robert's group or the daily traders. Just my observation. It is not the forecasting that I disagree with. It is the public release of the results. That undermines this excuse that the effort helps people understand their investment. How does going public help that? Then we have guys like Ovi Popescu who used to post here as Sponge. A few months ago he admitted on Braeburn that he lost his entire investment in Apple and had to start over. And yet PED publishes his estimates and thereby bestows credibility on him. At least with real analysts, readers can find out what their qualifications are. Not with these independent "analysts". I am a pretty active participant at Braeburn, so I include myself in the following criticism. But on the other hand I refuse to participate in any financial forecasting. Publicly like with PED or on any forum. I see the conversations that go into creating these estimates. I see the level of knowledge and inside information that everyone has about Apple. No one has access to anyone at Apple like real analysts do. No one knows anything that is not publicly available to everyone else. Frankly there are a lot of conclusions and speculation drawn about Apple that are totally off base. I bet mine are too when I criticize Cook for example. The people creating these estimates have no reason but fluke to provide anything of value beyond Apple's guidance. When I first joined AFB1, I saw all these forecasts being drawn up with apparent conviction. I thought I had stumbled upon a group of people that must have better information about Apple than me. After all, why else would they be forecasting? People couldn't possibly be forecasting based upon pure guesswork could they? Well after paying attention all this time, it is clear that all of this stuff is based upon exactly that - guesswork. And in my opinion, guesswork from people with no formal analyst qualifications should not be published by PED, and passed of as if there is some kind of credibility behind the associated estimates. It is flat out irresponsible. And I think it contributes to over inflated expectations re Apple. On PED's part it is lousy cheap journalism. I wish it would stop.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Apr 19, 2014 7:31:57 GMT -8
I agree that there is some danger to an unsophisticated investor reading the estimates and being misled, But how is that different from reading Seeking Alpha or any of the blogs and reports of the paid analysts? Back before the coordinated FUD attacks, this board was consistently more accurate than the paid analysts.
This discussion seems to have an assumption that it is irresponsible to make or publish a prediction unless you are certain it is correct. I would prefer to place the responsibility on the reader to develop a context for evaluating the predictions. I have a pretty good context for reading Michael Blair on SA (well, to avoiding reading him) as well as one for reading Brian White. What I do with that information is up to me.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 19, 2014 7:54:34 GMT -8
I agree that there is some danger to an unsophisticated investor reading the estimates and being misled, But how is that different from reading Seeking Alpha or any of the blogs and reports of the paid analysts? Back before the coordinated FUD attacks, this board was consistently more accurate than the paid analysts. This discussion seems to have an assumption that it is irresponsible to make or publish a prediction unless you are certain it is correct. I would prefer to place the responsibility on the reader to develop a context for evaluating the predictions. I have a pretty good context for reading Michael Blair on SA (well, to avoiding reading him) as well as one for reading Brian White. What I do with that information is up to me. 1. I also think most of SA Is utter trash so I avoid it. 2. My comment regarding irresponsible does not relate to accuracy. It is whether the people making these predictions have any hope in being correct other than fluke. The amateur analysts at least on Braeburn fall into that category in my opinion. Lots of nice people who can add value to general discussions about Apple. But when they make financial forecasts they are essentially driving blind. It is like watching sausage being made. Once you see it done, you don't want to eat it. The pro analysts have resources and tools that the amateurs don't have. That at least gives them hope of having something useful to forecast. The amateurs have nothing but the hope for a fluke. 3. Historically the people here and at Braeburn were just lucky in my opinion.
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Post by zzmac on Apr 19, 2014 11:04:15 GMT -8
In other news.....Samsung, in trying to beat Apple to the gate, is going to start selling Galaxy running shoes and track pants.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 19, 2014 11:38:25 GMT -8
Well, PED - ordinarily the best Apple reporter out there - is running his usual "How many XXXX has Apple sold this quarter?" pieces, replete with all the dart board guesses, by both the usual pro and amateur dart players. And, of course, Robert Paul Leitao is bloviating like he's an expert and actually has clue one what is happening in Cupertino and the supply chain. Am I the only one who finds it utterly ridiculous that the guesses of these charlatans are published every 3 months as if they have the slightest bit of veracity? Seriously, I want to program a Web page where we can all randomly launch darts at a dartboard, with EPS and Revs and # of products sold on the board, and submit the results to PED each quarter. I bet we would finish in the upper half. Anyway, I hope you all have a great Easter weekend, and that we all have a great Wednesday. We all know these guys JD and I don't think it's fair to label them charlatan's even if it's academically correct. I agree that spending time forecasting Apple earnings isn't what it once was now that Apples own forecasting seems to be fairly close to the mark. Robert's point in performing the exercise was that it would help the participant's better understand their investment. I'm guessing this is probably true. I can also say that TommoUK's forecasting and Roberts observations on how some of his clients had acquired/extended their wealth were tremendously helpful to me back in the early iPod days of all this. Ped's decision to publish it every 3 months? I suppose it keeps the discussion framed for what investors should really pay attention to so it's probably a good thing at the end of the day. As far as the accuracy goes...,no one...,no one has been consistently on target with their forecasts whether we're talking Robert's group or the daily traders. Just my observation. Charlatan. noun. - a person who falsely pretends to know or be something in order to deceive people. The truth is, I think they mostly deceive themselves. They simply cannot possibly know anything about how Apple is doing in a given quarter, or how they will guide for the following one. That is proprietary information (until earnings reporting day) and Apple is among the more secretive companies out there. Tim Cook himself has said that supply chain checks are worthless, and none of the amateurs even have sources there. So they just make it up. I know this because I was briefly a denizen of Braeburn. I never made a forecast, but I did stick around long enough to see how the sausage was made. It really is non-scientific wild-assed guessing. Lstream confirms this in his above post. Don't get me wrong; I like several (but not all) of these amateur dart players. And when they stay in their wheelhouses, several of them are quite intelligent when discussing Apple. I think AFB is worse off with Gregg Thurman gone (although, granted, less caustic ). Horace Dediu is an extremely insightful (although, often unintelligible) analyst. But, just as I have some brilliant lawyer friends who, nonetheless, I would not want performing a circumcision, when the amateur Apple analysts (AAA's) purport to know anything about how Apple is doing in a given quarter, they cannot know, so they do not know. And nobody should ever ever ever invest a dime based on their earnings ruminations. WRT Seeking Alpha, I don't remember the last time I read an article there. But if an analyst I respect is discussing generalities or trends or why Apple is a superior company to Samsung, he may have a point. However, if an analyst claims to have any insight on how or what Apple is going to report on Wednesday, he is a charlatan. Anyway, I don't really care. Just pointing out the absurdity. Let's all hope that the always optimistic Braeburn Braintrustâ„¢ is right this time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2014 13:15:11 GMT -8
Gregg Thurman? Really? Free shares? ISM? NO iPad mini? Can't dilute shares from buyback? Some doozies there.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2014 13:18:00 GMT -8
I miss Gregg.
Like my last stomach flu.
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Post by BillH on Apr 19, 2014 13:49:20 GMT -8
The truth is, I think they mostly deceive themselves. They simply cannot possibly know anything about how Apple is doing in a given quarter, or how they will guide for the following one. That is proprietary information (until earnings reporting day) and Apple is among the more secretive companies out there. Tim Cook himself has said that supply chain checks are worthless, and none of the amateurs even have sources there. So they just make it up. I know this because I was briefly a denizen of Braeburn. I never made a forecast, but I did stick around long enough to see how the sausage was made. It really is non-scientific wild-assed guessing. Lstream confirms this in his above post. Don't get me wrong; I like several (but not all) of these amateur dart players. And when they stay in their wheelhouses, several of them are quite intelligent when discussing Apple. I think AFB is worse off with Gregg Thurman gone (although, granted, less caustic ). Horace Dediu is an extremely insightful (although, often unintelligible) analyst. But, just as I have some brilliant lawyer friends who, nonetheless, I would not want performing a circumcision, when the amateur Apple analysts (AAA's) purport to know anything about how Apple is doing in a given quarter, they cannot know, so they do not know. And nobody should ever ever ever invest a dime based on their earnings ruminations. WRT Seeking Alpha, I don't remember the last time I read an article there. But if an analyst I respect is discussing generalities or trends or why Apple is a superior company to Samsung, he may have a point. However, if an analyst claims to have any insight on how or what Apple is going to report on Wednesday, he is a charlatan. Anyway, I don't really care. Just pointing out the absurdity. Let's all hope that the always optimistic Braeburn Braintrustâ„¢ is right this time. THIS I could have written myself...,except the part about Gregg..., just not as well. TommoUK is the guy I really miss. He was crazy funny. (literally)
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 19, 2014 13:50:45 GMT -8
Wow, you guys are meanies. Good thing sweeties like myself and Phoebe are here to balance things out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2014 13:56:57 GMT -8
Wow, you guys are meanies. Good thing sweeties like myself and Phoebe are here to balance things out. Blessed are the peacemakers on this Easter Sunday, as they share inherit my Apr '14 $550's...
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Post by redinaustin on Apr 19, 2014 14:25:36 GMT -8
"TommoUK is the guy I really miss. He was crazy funny. (literally)"
Me too and if you remember he was one of the first (maybe THE first) to come out against amateur analysts estimates.
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Post by BillH on Apr 19, 2014 14:53:08 GMT -8
"TommoUK is the guy I really miss. He was crazy funny. (literally)" Me too and if you remember he was one of the first (maybe THE first) to come out against amateur analysts estimates. I'm guessing he railed against it with his usual flair. Still, he did this one night when he was a little hammered. It alone let me sleep through the ups and downs of what was to follow and ended up pretty damn accurate when you account for the turbulence that was to follow. Attachments:tommo forecast.tiff (197.6 KB)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2014 16:09:07 GMT -8
TommoUK was great. Last time I heard he was haunting Apple Sanity board but they may be 3+ year old information. Even back in 2007, he would regularly rail at the crooks on WS, and at the time AAPL would have a P/E of 30...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2014 16:18:57 GMT -8
Pats is another guy who did a pretty good job of channeling Bob Mansfield for the tech side of things.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2014 16:21:57 GMT -8
Isn't he still a Braeburnite?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2014 16:35:07 GMT -8
Isn't he still a Braeburnite? Yes, but I don't read a steady diet of it because there are so many threads, I just can't keep up.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2014 17:20:54 GMT -8
Active board? Forgot what that's like.
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Post by BillH on Apr 19, 2014 19:21:01 GMT -8
Pats is another guy who did a pretty good job of channeling Bob Mansfield for the tech side of things. He and Sleepygeek seem to be walking encyclopedia's on the techy side. It's pretty humbling being around all you guys in point of fact. Same goes for Miatanet. I spent my high school and part of my college years working on cars but there are guys there that have off the chart skills. It HAS been fun trying to keep up though and I thank you all for that.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 20, 2014 11:42:05 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 20, 2014 13:24:23 GMT -8
Just waiting for that larger iPhone. With my nascent hyperopia and large fingers, a 3.5-4" screen is almost useless to me. I make mistakes every single time I text. Is it September yet? JD
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 20, 2014 13:25:28 GMT -8
Active board? Forgot what that's like. "Never mistake activity for achievement." - John Wooden
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