Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 14:03:53 GMT -8
We're the best friggin' board EVAR, then. Sweet!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2014 14:46:06 GMT -8
I succumbed to Apple Estimate temptation and ran some preliminary numbers. I'm leaning to not buy before earnings on Wednesday. Why? I'm having trouble getting much more than WS analyst consensus EPS of 10.17. That's a first for me. But one thing, NO ONE has a good read on iPhones. It's a big WAG except to fit it inside Oppie's guidance #.
On WS, up is down and down is up so anything can happen. But with my concerns over March and worry over June guidance, I think I'm going to sit this one out. Watch it go up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2014 14:58:06 GMT -8
To clarify, Dec EPS is about how many iPhones Apple can make, which is easier to model than demand. With the production shift from 5c to 5s during the quarter, many of us underestimated the impact to iPhones built.
For the March quarter, it's about DEMAND, which is more difficult. No data points from CM. iPhone 6 rumors abound, freezing some iPhone 5 sales. Earlier China launch in FQ1 2014 will undoubtedly suck out sales from FQ2 2014. So, I'm at 37.75M iPhones. That's the difference between beating 10.17 and making 10.40-10.50. Then, one is betting on a respectable June guidance #. Unless rumors of an early launch are true (if only for one launch weekend w/channel fill), June looks soft to me.
Anyway, this one is a big question mark for me. If this conjures up images of throwing darts, I don't blame you one bit. Now I regret even typing this....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 15:04:26 GMT -8
Shoulda put that in Apple Fundamentals, Mercel. NO ONE will judge you there, because no one's there. Still time to move the posts...
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 20, 2014 15:48:22 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 15:55:23 GMT -8
More like, a realization that tablets over $300 aren't as ready to replace PCs on account of PCs "merely" stagnating, vs. tanking.
Money doesn't grow on trees. I don't think it too crazy to see many tablet $$ and PC $$ coming from the same general source of global funds.
The <$200 junk/media-centric tablets don't really concern me, given the huge number of white box/"Other" players.
There's also the Touch ID/China Mobile factor which has yet to fully play out.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 20, 2014 16:42:07 GMT -8
Not sure why this lefty Frog Gassée is quotable, merely because he once worked at Apple at a time when Sculley was running it into the ground, especially since he is quoting Robert Paul Leitao and his dart throwing. And I don't know which is more annoying, three names, like Sarah Jessica Parker, or one name, like Cher or Usher.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2014 16:57:40 GMT -8
Not sure why this lefty Frog Gassée is quotable, merely because he once worked at Apple at a time when Sculley was running it into the ground, especially since he is quoting Robert Paul Leitao and his dart throwing. And I don't know which is more annoying, three names, like Sarah Jessica Parker, or one name, like Cher or Usher. Lol. Now that Apple is giving accurate guidance, the thrill is gone, but I don't think Cher sang that one... Now, the variables are next quarter, the buy back and dividends. Perhaps we'll get a new and improved North Star quote, but that's not needle moving.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 18:16:43 GMT -8
It's nice that the only buyback # that seems "out there" is "fairly modest" - $30B extra (that comment from Sacconaghi, who's pretty OK lately)
Super-limited data points of course - $10B, then $60B by 2015.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2014 18:47:24 GMT -8
Sacconaghi has gotten better, at least his questions have on the earnings call. I had lunch with one of his colleagues, who was quite amused of his nickname, Toni the Tool.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 18:51:11 GMT -8
Sacconaghi has gotten better, at least his questions have on the earnings call. I had lunch with one of his colleagues, who was quite amused of his nickname, Toni the Tool. Seattle Connection, eh? The Sanford Bernstein ppl work down there?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2014 18:55:56 GMT -8
Yep, but he flies into Seattle. He's not based locally anymore.
To everyone else -- I encourage you to read his blog for FQ2, as it's definitely worth a look. I didn't realize the consistency by which Oppie has over-guided OPEX. If I use the lower range # of $4.3B, I'm getting 10.27, a respectable beat. For conservatism, I was penciling $4.4B but it's undeniable -- Oppie is highballing OPEX.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 19:07:43 GMT -8
It's a pattern until it isn't. May change under Maestri, who knows (though CFOs aren't in charge of spending, at least they shouldn't be).
But seeing the pattern that Peter "The Sandbag" Oppenheimer's been following, I say it still is. _Especially_ when you're outright _planning_ OpEx per fiscal year (which sounds pretty disciplined to me).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2014 20:14:00 GMT -8
It's Oppie's "cushion." He's using it as a savings account in case units sold were less than estimated. He has other levers, to be sure. But this one is visible and very consistent since Apple's new guidance.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 21:38:01 GMT -8
You should put "AAPL Earnings" on Carnac's envelope, btw.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2014 21:52:36 GMT -8
PSA: China Mobile website popup says they'll update on operational data including March subscriber update on April 22. That means a 4G sub number for the month - beyond that as relates to iPhone, who knows. www.chinamobileltd.com/en/global/home.php
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