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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 22, 2014 3:30:53 GMT -8
Good morning - Asia mixed
- Europe up
- US looking slightly higher
AAPL is off approximatley $1.17 on 2,500 shares - so basically non-indicative - just someone trying to press for their personal reasons. One day left and we get AAPL earnings ... don't know whether to say YAY or YIKES. Wish Oppie would let Luca Maestri speak. I'm anxious to know if he is an upbeat type person or more of a Ben Stein type. Oppie doesn't retire till September so I'm not sure when his actual last conference call will be. Boy would love to tell him how to spend some of his money! - I'm guessing AAPL was giving a bit of an elbow to Samsung here with their new ad: "There are some ideas we want every company to copy" 9 to 5 mac has the article: 9to5mac.com/2014/04/22/apple-teases-samsung-in-new-environmental-print-ad-there-are-some-things-we-want-every-company-to-copy/ - Here is just another article on tomorrow's expectations: www.idownloadblog.com/2014/04/21/apple-reports-earnings-wednesday-heres-what-analysts-expect/ - I expect that if management doesn't breakout or address China Mobile one of the analysts is surely to bring it up - but not sure what they have agreed (with CHL) to convey. - Don't you just love how the FUD is coming out in the media about wearables being a dud and not the future just when AAPL may be launching one. It's unbelievable. - Lastly, I believe ATT reports today ... we'll see what little nugget they may throw our way. Enjoy the day! PS Happy Earth Day (it was an after-thought ... I'm not a tree hugger type ... sorry)
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Post by firestorm on Apr 22, 2014 4:32:08 GMT -8
According to Mac Rumors this morning, suppliers believe that the larger of the two new iPhone sizes will be delayed into 2015 because of battery issues. It is said that Apple may be trying to brand the phone as the iPhone Air, and has designed it to be extremely thin, and they can't obtain a battery as thin as they would like. Bummer. I was all set to get one of these as soon as they came out. This could be affecting AAPL this morning; who knows?
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Post by redinaustin on Apr 22, 2014 4:34:51 GMT -8
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Post by po1nt on Apr 22, 2014 5:09:30 GMT -8
According to Mac Rumors this morning, suppliers believe that the larger of the two new iPhone sizes will be delayed into 2015 because of battery issues. It is said that Apple may be trying to brand the phone as the iPhone Air, and has designed it to be extremely thin, and they can't obtain a battery as thin as they would like. Bummer. I was all set to get one of these as soon as they came out. This could be affecting AAPL this morning; who knows? heard this as well. you would think it would be easier to make the one with larger screen size thinner. There's more real estate to work with.... not sure if i buy all this
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Post by rickag on Apr 22, 2014 5:26:16 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 22, 2014 6:11:53 GMT -8
It appears to me: AMAZON is being EVIL to Netflix customers on AMAZON's platform!! From the NFLX earnings call transcript: seekingalpha.com/article/2152493-netflixs-ceo-discusses-q1-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singlewe noticed that if you said the words Downtown Abbey, it immediately brought up all of the content that was available as part of your Amazon Prime subscription, but yet when you said something like House of Cards, it immediately did bring up the content. However, it was only for Amazon's paid service. You had to actually buy each individual episode and when we asked why it didn't actually direct you to the Netflix app which is a featured app, it said because they don't have access to your API unless you want them to have access to your API.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 22, 2014 6:22:46 GMT -8
MCD earnings call transcript: LOTS OF BAD WORDSseekingalpha.com/article/1963061-mcdonalds-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript challenging year that we had in 2013..... 2013 was a difficult year and we’re keenly aware of our short term challenges. Due to economic predictions are mixed but most assumed some limited global improvement in 2014. However we don’t expect significant changes in market dynamics given modest growth projects for the IEO industry. Looking to January global comparable sales are expected to be relatively flat........ Our U.S. 2013 results fell short of our expectations. ....... Given uncertainty around consumer reaction to recent VAT increases and current economic indicators that do not reflect improvements in market dynamics. We remain cautiously optimistic about France........... Amid a highly competitive environment, Japan continued to experience significant comparable sales in guest count declines..... In Australia, comparable sales were relatively flat for the quarter. ...... In China, comparable sales decreased 40 basis points for the quarter......
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 6:39:51 GMT -8
Daniel Tello is one of the best, and his June guidance is IMPRESSIVE: $40.8B is Revs. His March EPS is $10.60. If Apple reports both, we're off like a rocket. Here's the link: aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2014/04/fiscal-2q-2014-final-estimates.htmlAlthough he's been at the high end of things of late, he and Turley Muller bloggers are two to watch.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2014 7:18:16 GMT -8
I like deagol's approach, but I'm dubious on $40B+. I'm not even sure about 38B+. China Mobile would have to pick up the slack for the US mkt to give just one example.
Net deferred rev from iPhone/iPad/Mac could be near record lows. But look at last Q3.
I remain very upbeat on Apple, but the numbers for now, Oppenheimer needs to surprise me. Where's that cash update? Oh, right...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2014 7:22:46 GMT -8
Phoebear, Luca had a brief cameo last CC. Sounded fine.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2014 7:48:49 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 8:00:49 GMT -8
I'm going to have to revisit deferred revenue. The number is getting so big, yet it doesn't explain a big June guidance from Daniel Tello. Unless he knows something about China iPhone sales that we don't. Remember, at the beginning of iPhone sales, Daniel was the first to trap the IMEI # (or serial?) and reasonably extrapolated unit sales before Apple caught on and nixed his model for forecasting. We had fun comparing amortization of Apple's early recognition of revenue of iPhone sales on AFB, but that changed too. The good old days -- now we're back to tea leaves. I'm intrigued by Tello's $40.8B June guidance number. If Apple guides $36B - $38B with a EPS of $10.30+, I think AAPL will be fine on Wednesday. Anything more and we'll be more than fine .
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 8:23:32 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 8:28:33 GMT -8
Nice looking charts Mav, and it appears you've already done the heavy-lifting. Perhaps I've overlooked it, but what is the net contribution from deferred revenue to FQ2 and FQ3 2014 quarters?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 22, 2014 8:40:38 GMT -8
I'm going to have to revisit deferred revenue. The number is getting so big, yet it doesn't explain a big June guidance from Daniel Tello. Unless he knows something about China iPhone sales that we don't. Remember, at the beginning of iPhone sales, Daniel was the first to trap the IMEI # (or serial?) and reasonably extrapolated unit sales before Apple caught on and nixed his model for forecasting. We had fun comparing amortization of Apple's early recognition of revenue of iPhone sales on AFB, but that changed too. The good old days -- now we're back to tea leaves. I'm intrigued by Tello's $40.8B June guidance number. If Apple guides $36B - $38B with a EPS of $10.30+, I think AAPL will be fine on Wednesday. Anything more and we'll be more than fine . Yeah, he's the best.
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 22, 2014 8:45:07 GMT -8
PS Happy Earth Day (it was an after-thought ... I'm not a tree hugger type ... sorry) Yes, enjoy the festivities, everyone! Some Drudge headlines honoring this special day: Obama will burn 35,000 gallons of fuel on Earth Day; 375 TONS of carbon dioxide...
EPA Embarks on Earth Day Tour 'Jetting Around Country'...
EPA Chief emits tons per year flying home on weekends...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 8:46:41 GMT -8
I like deagol's approach, but I'm dubious on $40B+. I'm not even sure about 38B+. China Mobile would have to pick up the slack for the US mkt to give just one example. Net deferred rev from iPhone/iPad/Mac could be near record lows. But look at last Q3. I remain very upbeat on Apple, but the numbers for now, Oppenheimer needs to surprise me. Where's that cash update? Oh, right... Mav, Has Daniel offered any details on why he's guiding so high? I'm with you on June at $38B and would like to think differently about it. Don't you two tweet on occasion?
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 22, 2014 9:01:31 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Apr 22, 2014 9:07:56 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Apr 22, 2014 10:10:33 GMT -8
Walt Mossberg today: "Apple executives have assured me that the second half of 2014 will have impressive new products."
rather than all across 2014...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2014 10:45:04 GMT -8
That is across 2014.
In Apple terms.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2014 11:02:24 GMT -8
I do have projections Mercel but I'm not 100% sure I got the "historical" deferrals generally right-ish yet.
Safe bet that Q2/Q3 net deferrals are lower, not sure how much. Obviously depends on sell-in units.
As for Q3 guidance, who knows. I think my dart throw had the top range at 36.5B.
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Post by Zeke on Apr 22, 2014 11:12:25 GMT -8
According to Mac Rumors this morning, suppliers believe that the larger of the two new iPhone sizes will be delayed into 2015 because of battery issues. It is said that Apple may be trying to brand the phone as the iPhone Air, and has designed it to be extremely thin, and they can't obtain a battery as thin as they would like. Bummer. I was all set to get one of these as soon as they came out. This could be affecting AAPL this morning; who knows? Samsung is one of those suppliers. Samsung's flagship model phone is not doing well. Samsung thinks it's because people are waiting for the iPhone 6. So Samsung plants a rumor that the iPhone 6 will be delayed a year. Typical Samsung.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 11:45:38 GMT -8
I do have projections Mercel but I'm not 100% sure I got the "historical" deferrals generally right-ish yet. Safe bet that Q2/Q3 net deferrals are lower, not sure how much. Obviously depends on sell-in units. As for Q3 guidance, who knows. I think my dart throw had the top range at 36.5B. Each quarter will help clarify the impact on EPS from deferred revenues, assuming no more changes (like Apple's increase that added 900M more to the deferral in the Dec. quarter) It's still opaque, I agree. If you think Apple will guide June 36.5B at the top of the range, AAPL will likely struggle. It's my biggest concern.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 22, 2014 12:05:24 GMT -8
AT&T numbers - are in line. .71 vs .70 Est. 32.5B vs. $32.478 Est.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 12:13:46 GMT -8
AT&T numbers - are in line. .71 vs .70 Est. 32.5B vs. $32.478 Est. EDITED: The SG4 a year ago didn't make ATT's March 2013 earnings report (launch April 30, 2013). The SG5 launched outside the March 2014 quarter as well. The ATT YOY #s should favor Apple this year more than last, since the SG5 was less anticipated this year and it previewed with lukewarm reviews (ok, it was panned).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2014 12:26:24 GMT -8
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Post by macoz on Apr 22, 2014 14:20:03 GMT -8
I do have projections Mercel but I'm not 100% sure I got the "historical" deferrals generally right-ish yet. Safe bet that Q2/Q3 net deferrals are lower, not sure how much. Obviously depends on sell-in units. As for Q3 guidance, who knows. I think my dart throw had the top range at 36.5B. It is a simple (?) spreadsheet exercise to calculate the net increase/ decrease in deferred revenue. Apple supplies most of the information you need to do the calculations. To keep things simple, concentrate on the iphone, iPad and mac unit sales. Ignore iTunes and other sales. My conclusion is, and always been, that as long as unit sales increase deferred revenues will increase. It is when deferred revenues start decreasing that I get worried about future prospects.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 22, 2014 14:20:54 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 22, 2014 14:42:29 GMT -8
AT&T: Another pointless data point.
There is no secret codex, people. Just wait for tomorrow and you will know.
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