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Post by phoebear611 on May 30, 2014 2:52:05 GMT -8
Good Morning... All is well with the world ... AAPL still on the rise ... and the New York Rangers heading to the Stanley Cup final. While you were sleeping: - Asia all red except for the HSI - Europe as red as a matador's cape - US ... fairly flat ... as flat as in the Canadiens falling flat on their face during these play-offs (sorry, I just had to) - AAPL in PM: $636.75 (+$1.37) Snapshot of AAPL news: - JD brought this article to my attention - will be interesting to see how much focus on this topic is at the WWDC this year. I hope a ton because this is SUCH a game changer at so many levels and personally, I would LOVE it! - This article also appears in MacDailyNews: 9 to 5 Mac: 9to5mac.com/2014/05/29/apple-discussing-iphone-payments-service-with-high-profile-retail-brands/ - Note from JPM's Rod Hall: Beats Music Cuts Price, Increases Free Trial Extension after Apple Acquisition (AAPL: Positive): Beats Music announced in an update to its iOS app that new users can take advantage of an extended 14-day free trial period and decreased annual subscription pricing. Previously, the sample period has been capped at 7 days. In addition to doubling up on the trial period Beats Music has cut single subscription pricing to $99.99 per year, down from $119.88 per year. The company previously marketed the subscription as a $9.99 monthly fee, but with the new price fees come out to roughly $8.30 per month. (Apple Insider). Our View: We would expect pricing to drop toward other similar streaming services. In our opinion Apple is likely to bring its streaming pricing in line with other services like Spotify. - appleinsider amongst other outlets carrying this MSFT smartwatch story which is obviously associated with AAPL news: appleinsider.com/articles/14/05/29/microsofts-smartwatch-to-be-compatible-with-ios-and-android-launch-this-summer - As usual, we can always count on the WSJ to deliver the cloud as we are enjoying the silver lining: Heard on the Street: Apple's Cook Can't Afford to Miss a Beat: online.wsj.com/articles/heard-on-the-street-apples-cook-cant-afford-to-miss-a-beat-1401383521?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp - cult of mac - I believe TC is getting a bit fed up with all the leaks although when you are this size, it will be hard not to have one. You can read the headlines at some point where a " leaker" is found and then AAPL is accused of torturing them - so ridiculous, seriously. : Apple Hires 200 Chinese Security Men to Catch Leakers: www.cultofmac.com/281450/apple-hires-200-chinese-security-men-catch-leakers/This is Friday and normally there would be a comment on "the PIN" but given the gaps this week I don't know how relevant it truly is. Just like anything else - there is a time to use it and a time not to use it. As for price levels - we are at the $636 level and in the general vicinity of the fib resistance. Mav pointed it out on his blog last night as well: aapltree.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/maybe-ill-just-let-the-aapl-charts-do-most-of-the-talking-today-52914-market-close/ Does it mean we rest - retrace - bust through? Maybe one of the these - maybe all of these but we've had a helluva week! Monday is WWDC so exciting times ahead .... enjoy the day!
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Post by phoebear611 on May 30, 2014 6:26:12 GMT -8
CNBC: Apple is also in focus after it was upgraded by both Goldman Sachs and Nomura ahead of the group's Worldwide Developers Conference. Nomura believes Apple may release details of its wearables platform, as well as perhaps a prototype of a smartwatch or iWatch. "This may open up a new product category for Apple and so drive possible earnings upside," the brokerage said in a note to clients.
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Post by gtrplyr on May 30, 2014 6:31:08 GMT -8
CNBC: Apple is also in focus after it was upgraded by both Goldman Sachs and Nomura ahead of the group's Worldwide Developers Conference. Nomura believes Apple may release details of its wearables platform, as well as perhaps a prototype of a smartwatch or iWatch. "This may open up a new product category for Apple and so drive possible earnings upside," the brokerage said in a note to clients. This makes sense as Apple has learned that Apps drive hardware sales. As cool as the watch may be the real magic starts when people start to develop for it so Apple will need to let the "cat out of the bag" early. The iPhone was announced a few months before it was available so I'm in the camp we will see something on Monday . Cheers to the longs!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 30, 2014 6:32:59 GMT -8
Over 640......rock on!
4.2 million shares in the first hour....get on the train before Monday.....when ANYTHING might happen
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Post by phoebear611 on May 30, 2014 6:37:05 GMT -8
GS upped PT from $655 to $720 Hmmm... Why is it that when GS says something it makes me nervous?!
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Post by nagrani on May 30, 2014 6:39:29 GMT -8
I think the smart money who has access and visibility into the supply chain is jumping on the bus. Retail investors are always the last to know
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,433
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Post by chinacat on May 30, 2014 6:41:47 GMT -8
I think the smart money who has access and visibility into the supply chain is jumping on the bus. Retail investors are always the last to know ...and in 10 days they can all hop on board!
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Post by gtrplyr on May 30, 2014 6:56:37 GMT -8
Not to squash the euphoria here but just pointing out that for us longs we're still off our highs from 2 years ago .... so hopefully I won't hear the phrase "parabolic" any time soon. Meanwhile over the last two years so many other stocks have seen tremendous gains while Apple was DEAD MONEY ... in other words while this is nice hopefully it's just the beginning.
Cheers again to the longs and I can't wait until the split so our stock will be "CHEAP"
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Post by socal Film Composer on May 30, 2014 7:12:20 GMT -8
Not to squash the euphoria here but just pointing out that for us longs we're still off our highs from 2 years ago .... so hopefully I won't hear the phrase "parabolic" any time soon. Meanwhile over the last two years so many other stocks have seen tremendous gains while Apple was DEAD MONEY ... in other words while this is nice hopefully it's just the beginning. Cheers again to the longs and I can't wait until the split so our stock will be "CHEAP" could not agree more. All of this is long overdue for our dead money stock for 2 long years of pain. It's nice to see a recovery. Parabolic or not, I love that Yahoo finance still shows AAPL at a PE of 15 and change... what a bubble. I have muted expectations for trading on Monday - if the momo crowd is back on board, we could see the typical sell the news script in play on Monday. In fact, WWDC is typically not a news making event on the product side. What would excite investors would be new SDKs for both TV and iWatch in my opinion, and WWDC is a plausible place to introduce these SDKs
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Post by appledoc on May 30, 2014 7:12:58 GMT -8
Holy crap. Expect the typical WWDC retrace.
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Post by nagrani on May 30, 2014 7:18:06 GMT -8
Appledoc - yesterday - you said we could see 700 before split. Today u say retrace - change of opinion?!?
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Post by phoebear611 on May 30, 2014 7:18:44 GMT -8
Well - why would we crap out after WWDC "IF" there is something really exciting announced or introduced?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 30, 2014 7:22:54 GMT -8
Just WAG of the contrarian view
Because AAPL's had a move of about 130 points off the recent trend low which is more than 2x the previous three moves? Because Pavlovian negative response to WWDC? AAPL is in momo mode with all that implies though sentiment is still very positive. "AAPL at least needs a break."
Mkt doesn't need a good reason or any reason, as we know. But not an issue yet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2014 7:25:12 GMT -8
I sold a slice of things to have some cash ready if WWDC disappoints, as it invariably does.
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Post by Apple II+ on May 30, 2014 7:28:01 GMT -8
GS upped PT from $655 to $720 Hmmm... Why is it that when GS says something it makes me nervous?! Me too. Because every time I've held my options through every previous GS upgrade I lost. But today I took some gains.
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Post by appledoc on May 30, 2014 7:29:15 GMT -8
Appledoc - yesterday - you said we could see 700 before split. Today u say retrace - change of opinion?!? No change. Just expecting a small retrace before going to 700. As for why a WWDC retrace, because WS is ALWAYS disappointed by the conference. It's a developers conference. Not a hardware conference. Maybe they will surprise, but right now expectations seem pretty high with home automation, iWatch, TV, etc. We've been through this dance before.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on May 30, 2014 7:29:53 GMT -8
I think the smart money who has access and visibility into the supply chain is jumping on the bus. Retail investors are always the last to know One could make the argument that if "smart money" means institutions, they are missing the boat. Institutional ownership is at 62% according to Google Finance. If I recall, an institution is anyone who owns more than 1000 shares. In this case, I think the "smart money" has fallen into the trap of group think. I think most investors don't mind winning but they don't want to lose. Likewise, most advisers and fund managers are concerned first and foremost with keeping their jobs and making their bonuses. There is safety in following the herd. Every time I talk to an analyst, I hear the same superficial repetition of phrases like "Law of Large Numbers", passed in market share, no longer able to innovate, and how vulnerable they are to being replaced by the next big thing. It's not that they are all disciples of Micheal Blair, it is that their confirmation bias is selecting the opinions that minimize their personal risk. I stand by my previous WAG that we will see a movement into Apple by the institutions when the risk of NOT being in it (i.e How did you miss this???) outweighs the risk of wandering to far from the herd. They will follow the momentum. Finally, think about the stock and what really moves it. It is not fundamentals and it is not technical, it is investor sentiment. While the big boys might have better information about supply chain and new products timing, there is still a gamble on how the market will react. I don't see how it is possible for them to really predict this factor. Surely, in the short term they can move the stock a few points or influence max pain, but in the long run I don't see them as predators, I see them as prey
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2014 7:31:36 GMT -8
GS can most certainly not be trusted. I interpret it as a sell signal, but I had sold some before they raised my suspicions.
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Post by nagrani on May 30, 2014 7:38:09 GMT -8
You guys realize former CFO is on board of gs and they are apples banker. Cannot screw the cow too much without running the risk of losing the milk
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Post by ericinaustin on May 30, 2014 7:41:42 GMT -8
I think the smart money who has access and visibility into the supply chain is jumping on the bus. Retail investors are always the last to know One could make the argument that if "smart money" means institutions, they are missing the boat. Institutional ownership is at 62% according to Google Finance. If I recall, an institution is anyone who owns more than 1000 shares. In this case, I think the "smart money" has fallen into the trap of group think. I think most investors don't mind winning but they don't want to lose. Likewise, most advisers and fund managers are concerned first and foremost with keeping their jobs and making their bonuses. There is safety in following the herd. Every time I talk to an analyst, I hear the same superficial repetition of phrases like "Law of Large Numbers", passed in market share, no longer able to innovate, and how vulnerable they are to being replaced by the next big thing. It's not that they are all disciples of Micheal Blair, it is that their confirmation bias is selecting the opinions that minimize their personal risk. I stand by my previous WAG that we will see a movement into Apple by the institutions when the risk of NOT being in it (i.e How did you miss this???) outweighs the risk of wandering to far from the herd. They will follow the momentum. Finally, think about the stock and what really moves it. It is not fundamentals and it is not technical, it is investor sentiment. While the big boys might have better information about supply chain and new products timing, there is still a gamble on how the market will react. I don't see how it is possible for them to really predict this factor. Surely, in the short term they can move the stock a few points or influence max pain, but in the long run I don't see them as predators, I see them as prey I suspect institutional %s are already very different from those google numbers. Reporting is a quarter old and often More. This big run very likely is because big buyers are moving back in. Oh. And if the wearable is announced I called it two weeks ago. Somebody gets to buy me a drink at aapl 750 fest in Sin city.
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Post by macwire on May 30, 2014 7:53:22 GMT -8
I'm stunned.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 30, 2014 7:57:34 GMT -8
I also lightened up when we got to 643.50
Plenty long still, but next week could be tricky.....nobody ever went broke taking a gain.
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Post by artman1033 on May 30, 2014 7:59:15 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on May 30, 2014 8:12:17 GMT -8
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Post by Volvocoupe on May 30, 2014 8:37:08 GMT -8
I think the smart money who has access and visibility into the supply chain is jumping on the bus. Retail investors are always the last to know One could make the argument that if "smart money" means institutions, they are missing the boat. Institutional ownership is at 62% according to Google Finance. If I recall, an institution is anyone who owns more than 1000 shares. In this case, I think the "smart money" has fallen into the trap of group think. I think most investors don't mind winning but they don't want to lose. Likewise, most advisers and fund managers are concerned first and foremost with keeping their jobs and making their bonuses. There is safety in following the herd. Every time I talk to an analyst, I hear the same superficial repetition of phrases like "Law of Large Numbers", passed in market share, no longer able to innovate, and how vulnerable they are to being replaced by the next big thing. It's not that they are all disciples of Micheal Blair, it is that their confirmation bias is selecting the opinions that minimize their personal risk. I stand by my previous WAG that we will see a movement into Apple by the institutions when the risk of NOT being in it (i.e How did you miss this???) outweighs the risk of wandering to far from the herd. They will follow the momentum. Finally, think about the stock and what really moves it. It is not fundamentals and it is not technical, it is investor sentiment. While the big boys might have better information about supply chain and new products timing, there is still a gamble on how the market will react. I don't see how it is possible for them to really predict this factor. Surely, in the short term they can move the stock a few points or influence max pain, but in the long run I don't see them as predators, I see them as prey Bud77 As an "advisor", I completely agree with what you have said here. I have been amazed at the ignorance of my fellow advisors in the office about the technology industry and Apple in particular. One of my own partners (there are four of us) challenged me to a bet on May 18th, 2011. The bet was if Apple got to $500 (which he said it would never get to) before RIM got to $75.86 I won, and if RIM got to $75.86 before Apple got to $500, he won. Apple was then $338.46 and RIM was $45.30. I have had many discussions with portfolio managers over the years with regards to Apple. There has never been an in between opinion on the stock and company. I would say 75% were always bearish and 25% were very bullish. People are emotional and the behavioural finance presentations I have been to over especially the last 10 years, have been very valuable in understanding why commentators and investors think about Apple the way they do. I did what you have done back in 2008, borrowed on my house in a big way and then used margin here at the office to double leverage. I have never lost faith and don't intend to. As I tell my clients that own Apple, we will look at selling part of the position when we get to $1,500. No, I am deadly serious. One of my assistants took my advise back in 2008 and started buying Apple. Currently she is up 280%. All is good. I guess writing this response has caused Apple to only be up $1.50 at this point. Sorry people.
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Post by artman1033 on May 30, 2014 8:40:12 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 30, 2014 8:45:58 GMT -8
SHOULDA BOUGHT WEEKLY PUTS 30 MINUTES AGO ARGHFARGLE
(Don't mind me)
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Post by artman1033 on May 30, 2014 8:47:38 GMT -8
SHOULDA BOUGHT WEEKLY PUTS 30 MINUTES AGO ARGHFARGLE (Don't mind me) shoulda bought weekly calls 30 seconds ago
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Post by macwire on May 30, 2014 8:48:15 GMT -8
I trimmed all my longs and rolled for event next week. It needed some rest.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on May 30, 2014 9:06:27 GMT -8
10,466 calls at 435. Will they create a Dip that I can Buy The F--- out of?
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