Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2014 17:59:01 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2014 20:41:34 GMT -8
I've not heard anyone predict an iPhone 6 announcement at WWDC (with 2-3 week availability) except for these guys. Can you imagine the Saturn V liftoff for the stock -- at the same time it's splitting? Has anyone heard of their track record? The only thing that lends credence are the widely reported rumors that iOS8 features have been pulled and delayed to 8.1 or next year. Getting iOS8 out the door early would fit an earlier launch if the hardware is ready. Too, it's a very safe bet Apple wants to crush the negative sentiment that has followed AAPL, up until the past month. I'm NOT predicting this, but the authors are in fact expecting it, with the iWatch delayed to a fall launch. www.t-gaap.com/2014/5/29/wwdc-2014-odds-on-favorites-of-new-hardware-and-software#.U4qsxBayjwI
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2014 20:55:35 GMT -8
There's no way iPhone 6 would get announced for pre-order at WWDC with the low level of supply chain chatter and nothing out of the usual sources, including the new ScoopMaster™ Tim Bradshaw of FT. China Mobile's still building out the TD-LTE network. Also, with the 2-year upgrade restrictions in certain markets (mostly the US?), there isn't much point in launching _too_ much earlier in the year. Mercel, you'll have to wait on your new iPhone 6 (announcement) until around early September, I'm thinking.
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2014 21:19:47 GMT -8
Apple doesn't have to wait for upgrade cycles nor China Mobile. There are plenty of Samsung customers and 4 and 4s customers to sop up all Apple can make as production ramps. The upgraders on the 2 year cycle will be the booster rocket. These are arguments FOR an early release, not against it. It would be brilliant on Apple's part.
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Post by moltenfire on May 31, 2014 21:40:18 GMT -8
I've not heard anyone predict an iPhone 6 announcement at WWDC (with 2-3 week availability) except for these guys. Can you imagine the Saturn V liftoff for the stock -- at the same time it's splitting? Has anyone heard of their track record? The only thing that lends credence are the widely reported rumors that iOS8 features have been pulled and delayed to 8.1 or next year. Getting iOS8 out the door early would fit an earlier launch if the hardware is ready. Too, it's a very safe bet Apple wants to crush the negative sentiment that has followed AAPL, up until the past month. I'm NOT predicting this, but the authors are in fact expecting it, with the iWatch delayed to a fall launch. www.t-gaap.com/2014/5/29/wwdc-2014-odds-on-favorites-of-new-hardware-and-software#.U4qsxBayjwIIt's just 3 guys' opinion, without any evidence to back them up. Not even a blurry cam photo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2014 21:54:53 GMT -8
Three against two, you lose. Lol
They also have a website, so they've got that going for them.
Hey, it would be brilliant if Apple could freeze all the Android sales from now until next year, as well as avoid the drop off in sales on the current handsets.
I give it a 20% chance.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2014 23:02:10 GMT -8
I give it a 0% chance, but I could be 100% wrong, and I like your enthusiasm. At this point Apple probably has any number of near-final prototypes or even initial production runs. But for something like iPhone being announced at WWDC, you'd expect some news from any number of news sources. Media live on being first to a story, after all (remember the early reporting on China Mobile?). Yet...crickets so far. EDIT: Flashback to Aug 18, a couple weeks before the iPhone 5S event invite: Clayton Morris happened upon the "silver ring" intel that turned out to be iPhone 5S's (sometimes silver, "usually" not) Touch ID steel detection ring. So far we have a back case (though you know what, I could get used to it).
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 31, 2014 23:41:46 GMT -8
I've not heard anyone predict an iPhone 6 announcement at WWDC (with 2-3 week availability) except for these guys. Can you imagine the Saturn V liftoff for the stock -- at the same time it's splitting? Except this would be bad, since I am expecting and planning for a dip after the inevitable disappointment after WWDC, when I can back up the truck and buy the dip. No more blast offs without me on board! I know, I know, To Serve Man, it's a cookbook.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 1, 2014 1:37:09 GMT -8
I give it a 0% chance, but I could be 100% wrong, and I like your enthusiasm. At this point Apple probably has any number of near-final prototypes or even initial production runs. But for something like iPhone being announced at WWDC, you'd expect some news from any number of news sources. Media live on being first to a story, after all (remember the early reporting on China Mobile?). Yet...crickets so far. EDIT: Flashback to Aug 18, a couple weeks before the iPhone 5S event invite: Clayton Morris happened upon the "silver ring" intel that turned out to be iPhone 5S's (sometimes silver, "usually" not) Touch ID steel detection ring. So far we have a back case (though you know what, I could get used to it). I agree. 0% chance of an iPhone (or iWatch for that matter) being announced tomorrow. As we all know, WWDC is aimed at a developer audience, not consumers. Incidentally it was Matt Garrahan, who is based in LA and is the media editor of the Financial Times, who had the original FT Apple/ Beats scoop. Tim Bradshaw has acknowledged his colleague's role.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2014 1:39:30 GMT -8
Thanks for the clarification. Did Bradshaw originally give credit?
To be fair, iPhone USED to be a WWDC "staple" (3G, 3GS, 4 anyway).
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Post by rob_london on Jun 1, 2014 4:02:45 GMT -8
Thanks for the clarification. Did Bradshaw originally give credit? To be fair, iPhone USED to be a WWDC "staple" (3G, 3GS, 4 anyway). The tweet from Bradshaw giving credit to his colleague was three days ago.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 4:38:24 GMT -8
0% chance? Really, now.
I find it a little intriguing that John Gruber "has a good feeling about this one..." or something to that effect. Not a prediction for hardware, but how can anyone feel excited about all software. Certainly not WS, although that's not John's focus.
Furthermore, it's incorrect to say WWDC is all software. There's lots of hardware in the history of WWDC. That won't change tomorrow -- we just don't know what it is.
I think there's a 80% chance for hardware.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 4:49:40 GMT -8
We laugh at "channel checks," yet we're relying on the lack of them as proof Apple can't front-run the competition with iPhone 6? Let's be consistent.
How tough can it be to make a bigger iPhone anyway? The challenge has always been to make it thinner and lighter. Make a bigger case, drop a bigger battery in it and voila. I'm oversimplifying (A8, display, etc.) to make the larger point that Samsung probably found the popularity of a larger handset by accident -- it wasn't able to engineer a handset as thin with a battery that could run past 10 minutes.
Ok. I woke up - but it's a dream until it isn't.
If Apple just talks health book, improved maps, carplay update, APIs for home automation and a flattened OSX, BTFD.
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 1, 2014 5:15:42 GMT -8
So true from www.marco.orgFull video of Eddy Cue and Jimmy Iovine at Re/code → May 30, 2014 • ∞ I wasn’t familiar with Jimmy Iovine before, but I’m convinced that getting him to Apple was worth any price. Seeing this has made me realize what Apple’s public face and events have been sorely lacking since 2011: charisma. Yep, you can't buy (or hire) cool but you can charisma. Jimmy has it in spades. Also very interesting thread on MacRumors: @arnoldkim: “Anyone else started using Beats Music this week?” t.co/iYQGB27OGq
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Post by rob_london on Jun 1, 2014 5:23:39 GMT -8
I watched the full Re/code interview this morning. Iovine is very watchable and had some great one-liners...though his impression of Lennon's Liverpudlian accent was a bit weak.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 1, 2014 6:11:28 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jun 1, 2014 7:06:37 GMT -8
The carrier numbers are very encouraging, especially after their stasis in 2011-2. As for Maynard Um... "The analyst has maintained his "market perform" rating on AAPL stock, and continues to believe that Apple will eventually have to choose between average selling price and margins versus unit sales and market share." Someone should tell him that they already made the choice.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jun 1, 2014 7:14:10 GMT -8
I am intrigued by the number of sessions at WWDC that were not titled. Given that this is a conference devoted to developers, the scope of this secrecy seems to imply a more fundamental change than a new hardware or an evolutionary change to an OS. I am expecting a revolutionary change. I commented earlier that one of Apples big advantages is that their closed ecosystem allows them to develop products that integrate software layers more tightly than others. They have most of the pieces...customer data, browsing history, friends networks though imessage, a solid OS, the best UI, developer tools and the hardware. Perhaps tomorrow brings it all together in a new way.
Let me give an example of what I mean. One of the problems, IMHO, with the current IOS ecosystem is that apps are silo-ed (i.e they do not share data or functionality in a standard way). Unlike web pages that can link to each other, apps are essentially standalone. This is not that different from the way computers were before UNIX. Now remember what happened when UNIX came along and introduced pipes. For the non programmers, pipes are just a OS supported mechanism that lets the output of one program be directed to the input of another program. Now imagine that Apple does something similar in IOS. The user could string together apps to create functionality.
Another area that could span a lot of the IOS is search. If I had decided to go thermonuclear on Google, the first thing i would do is to develop a better search engine and get them out of IOS. Nothing would hurt Google more.
These kind of changes are much harder and require much more vision than a new gadget. But I sense that we are ready to take that step. I can't wait
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 7:46:24 GMT -8
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Post by moltenfire on Jun 1, 2014 8:17:40 GMT -8
Well there's the blurry cam evidence right there Now I don't know what to expect.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 1, 2014 8:28:24 GMT -8
is this the thread where I can post FUD? www.cnet.com/news/with-no-amazing-products-due-at-wwdc-apples-tim-cook-feels-the-heat/Tim Cook feels the heat..... lost their mojo. .... Noticeably missing .... "The biggest worry is that Apple is losing its mojo," said ..... but it's been more than four years since it reinvented the market with ..... Worries that Apple has lost its edge ..... Stuck in a rut? .... The worry about the lack of new products ... Half-baked efforts ..... Unfortunately for Cook, ..... While Cook has made his fair share of missteps ..... AS YODA WOULD SAY: A tremendous wordsmith is he...
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 1, 2014 8:41:43 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 1, 2014 9:15:20 GMT -8
We laugh at "channel checks," yet we're relying on the lack of them as proof Apple can't front-run the competition with iPhone 6? Let's be consistent. I'm doubtful, just because something as big as the iPhone deserves its own event, and recent history suggests that's what Apple does; but there is a difference between using channel checks to extrapolate sales numbers (i.e., horseshit dart throwing) versus reports of suppliers obviously ramping up for something huge in general? BTW, some breaking video of Apple's wearables testing:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2014 9:21:51 GMT -8
Apples and different types of apples Mercel and you know it.
Supply chain checks are generally for wildly wrong extrapolation about marketshare, unit shipments, sales and earnings. Except stuff like Huberty's.
Supply chain _chatter_ and blurrycam got us True Tone flash, the 5C cases in a giant cart, a sorta-accurate 5C color, the detection ring...
Whoops - I think I sorta just said what JD said. Thinking the same thing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 9:33:14 GMT -8
John Gruber, usually quite circumspect, is optimistic over this year's WWDC: Check iPhone 6 cases leaking: Check iOS8 leaving off features to push it out earlier: Check Blurry cam evidence: Check Need for Apple to SURPRISE: Check Steve Ballmer spotted using an iPhone: Check I upgraded my prediction from 20% to 21%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 9:39:21 GMT -8
Someone analyzed the blurry cam and is calling fake. I'm back to 20%. lol.
Hey, I'm NOT EXPECTING THIS EITHER.
One thing about WWDC: Many, many people aren't expecting much from WWDC and MOST are expecting AAPL to fade on WWDC. If everyone wants in AAPL after WWDC, maybe we don't get an actual "Sell the News."
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Post by rob_london on Jun 1, 2014 10:05:48 GMT -8
John Gruber, usually quite circumspect, is optimistic over this year's WWDC: Check iPhone 6 cases leaking: Check iOS8 leaving off features to push it out earlier: Check Blurry cam evidence: Check Need for Apple to SURPRISE: Check Steve Ballmer spotted using an iPhone: Check I upgraded my prediction from 20% to 21%. I'm not going to sleep well tonight after seeing that photo... the stuff nightmares are made of.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 1, 2014 10:27:49 GMT -8
Didn't even realize WWDC started tomorrow. Thought it was Tuesday. Doh.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jun 1, 2014 11:57:43 GMT -8
Back on the 25 of May, Wall Street Playbook, one of the rags featured on Google Finance, had an article titled "Apple Caught Stealing Beats". The substance of the article was that Apple saved a lot of the purchase price by using offshore cash. I wrote a comment that said,"Did Samsung pay for this headline?". Their reply? "Yes".
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Post by ericinaustin on Jun 1, 2014 12:12:00 GMT -8
I watched the full Re/code interview this morning. Iovine is very watchable and had some great one-liners...though his impression of Lennon's Liverpudlian accent was a bit weak. I first saw Iovine several years ago when he was on American idol and was impressed. The interview continues to confirm that this guy gets it. He can bring a real interesting take to apples music business.
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