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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 6:31:25 GMT -8
Volume = lame.
Watch out.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 6:32:44 GMT -8
Well, with iPad Mini + T-Mobile/Metro + Jobs numbers, I'm guessing that yesterday was a bottom we will not see again, maybe ever. That kind of logic (the sound, rational kind) has bit me in the butt more times than I care to count.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 6:34:14 GMT -8
So far so good. I hope the bs of rising at first and then falling deep into the red doesn't repeat again today. I'll break even on my weeklies if AAPL hits ~672. Please consider setting a stop and possibly reentering (if you're stopped out) lower.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 6:35:03 GMT -8
Thanks again for the charts Lovey. As a student of the TA game, they couldn't be more clear. Thank you! YAY!!! I'm glad you like them!!!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 3, 2012 6:47:20 GMT -8
If this puppy can close green today, we just may have an island reversal, which would be bullish.
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Post by sponge on Oct 3, 2012 6:54:14 GMT -8
Ok
I was wrong. The Mini is coming. Bought April 13 and Oct 690s.
I think we should take off tomorrow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 7:00:32 GMT -8
Ok I was wrong. The Mini is coming. Bought April 13 and Oct 690s. I think we should take off tomorrow. Spongie, aren't you supposed to stick with LEAPs?!?!?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 3, 2012 7:08:58 GMT -8
If this puppy can close green today, we just may have an island reversal, which would be bullish. I feel like Gilligan. Today is one of those days where I just throw my hands up in disgust. Everything that has flashed on my iPad from CNBC has been "better than expected". S&P has the same candle as AAPL. The shorts are in control and will not let go. The mini news should have been enough to move AAPL independent of the market. Back to doing yard work.
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Post by calvinav on Oct 3, 2012 7:10:01 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 3, 2012 7:12:14 GMT -8
This run looks very promising on the 10-minute chart, which I am following on TD. The MACD are below the zero line, and pointing upward, and it just might get us to 669. We'll see.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 3, 2012 7:16:02 GMT -8
Ok I was wrong. The Mini is coming. Bought April 13 and Oct 690s. I think we should take off tomorrow. Spongie, aren't you supposed to stick with LEAPs?!?!? Studies have shown that LEAPS are a gateway drug leading to weekly crack. Sponge thought long and hard before trading in buy and hold for some options; I hope it works out for all of us. Keeping a wary eye for renewed Euro and Fiscal Cliff FUD...
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Post by jeffi on Oct 3, 2012 7:18:36 GMT -8
What a hit piece on Apple today by Doug Kass. Too bad, as he's a good guy. But wow, does he not get it. Truly awful. I'd like to post it but it's long and would require it do be broken into many pieces. Any suggestions? I can't link it.
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Post by sponge on Oct 3, 2012 7:20:15 GMT -8
Ok I was wrong. The Mini is coming. Bought April 13 and Oct 690s. I think we should take off tomorrow. Spongie, aren't you supposed to stick with LEAPs?!?!? Yes I know. After sitting on big pile of common, I just felt good about some very short term trades. The Oct 690s are the only real gamble just for Christmas money. My LEAPS make up less then 10% of my portfolio and the April calls make up .005% of that. And yet if the April calls payoff, (It sounds real crazy) but I could consider quitting my job. I won't because I would use the money to pay down debt. I may buy more April Calls after the post earnings selloff in Nov. Otherwise don't worry I am sticking to my long term plan of Buying and Holding common stock. The good news is that I have even less margin now. ;D
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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 3, 2012 7:21:48 GMT -8
What a hit piece on Apple today by Doug Kass. Too bad, as he's a good guy. But wow, does he not get it. Truly awful. I'd like to post it but it's long and would require it do be broken into many pieces. Any suggestions? I can't link it. Here is Tiernan's summary of the Kass hit . . . Imo, Buy Signal October 3, 2012, 10:50 A.M. ET AAPL: Kass Slams iPhone 5; ‘Feels Like a Toy’ By Tiernan Ray
Noted hedgie Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners, who has been pushing the line of thought that Apple (AAPL) has peaked as a business in the wake of the passing of founder Steve Jobs, today sent a missive to the faithful espousing his personal impressions of the company’s mis-steps with the iPhone 5, after trying he “played with” the device for “about a minute and got quickly bored.”
Kass contends the iPhone 5 is “the first product launched by Apple with no wow factor and much less cool than other products on the market such as the Samsung [Electronics (005930KS)] Galaxy S III and the HTC (2498TW) One X.”
Kass to some extent argues the iPhone 5 is missing the Jobs touch:
"Say what you will about whether or not Steve Jobs would have let iOS 6 go out in that condition with those maps, but go play with the iPhone 5 yourself. It feels terrible. It’s very light and to me feels like a toy. It needs a lead weight. I cannot believe Steve Jobs would have let it go out the door like that. He would have understood that it just doesn’t feel right. That was the value of Steve Jobs — he understood the whole picture, technical and non-technical alike."
At the same time, he suggests the “halo” around Jobs is evaporating, leaving Apple prey to claims it “taxes” users by charging more and leaving out features, something the company had been doing even under Jobs, he contends:
"Can Apple keep the well-above-cellphone-industry-average customer upgrade cycle going? With Steve Jobs gone, Apple is at risk of losing that magical Walt Disney feeling. This is what Apple had going for it. The dogs just wanted to eat the dog food — no matter what."
As a tax, he accuses Apple in past of having left out things such as higher-resolution cameras or video recording or 4G wireless. Now, the company is forcing its “proprietary” dock connector on customers, instead of using the industry’s “micro-USB” connector, he observes, and leaving out “basic features” such as a “NAND” flash memory card slot, in order to serve Apple’s profit margin.
Despite what will be a strong fiscal Q1, writes Kass, “It all comes down to valuation”:
"Bulls feel that the company’s prospects and profit stream are not baked into today’s share price, but given my concerns, which could emerge after the December quarter, and given Apple’s market cap, price-to-sales and meteoric rise this year, is there anyone that doesn’t own Apple’s shares at this point in time? And how many money managers (in part because of the weighting in the indices) are now overweight in the stock, particularly after the aforementioned period of outperformance?"
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 7:31:44 GMT -8
Sentiment can break patterns. And patterns aren't necessarily patterns.
End of the day price action is the tell for short-term traders. If only the price didn't whip around so damn much.
iPad mini - still no news for Dalrymple to directly yep. But yes I'm pretty damn sure it's happening from what we know.
Samsung going after the jury foreman?! Quite...classy.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 7:33:30 GMT -8
True colors...shining through...
Just be who you are, Kass...
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Post by jeffi on Oct 3, 2012 7:37:39 GMT -8
True colors...shining through... Just be who you are, Kass... I don't think so. He's a good guy. He just does not understand technology. AAPL is collateral damage. I posted the following on his site.... What a hit piece on Apple. It is littered with conclusions that are wrong and have been wrong for years if not decades. Please short the stock and stay short the stock as your fundamental analysis should lead you to a short and hold position. Apple is not a sure thing and it is mortal. That being said, you haven't understood the dynamics of Apple's market in the past and you certainly don't now. You missed AAPL repeatedly--- one of the best and most obvious stock investments over the last decade. You didn't get it then and you don't get it now. It's unfortunate for your subscribers who may be mislead by your flawed analysis. I'd love to respond point to point, if you would agree to publish it. Jazzy Jeff
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 3, 2012 7:48:58 GMT -8
We're making a hard attempt again to break through 668. A close above 670 would provide a bullish tone for tomorrow and Friday.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Oct 3, 2012 7:49:39 GMT -8
Choppy chart.
Still, woohoo for a tiny momo win.
Sold my Jan 13 trade (BCS). Belated congrats to all the dip buyers in the 650s yesterday.
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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 3, 2012 7:56:11 GMT -8
And counterpoint to the frustrated short Kass:
October 3, 2012, 11:51 A.M. ET AAPL: Buy on ‘Short-Sighted’ iPhone Worries, Says Wedge
By Tiernan Ray
Wedge Partners’s Brian Blair this morning writes that the recent negative sentiment toward iPhone unit sales is shortsighted,” urging investors to buy Apple (AAPL), but also “key suppliers” OmniVision Technologies (OVTI), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), and Cirrus Logic (CRUS), below recent highs.
Blair, without specifically referring to negative notes from the likes of Doug Kass today, writes that Apple’s having backed off a recent all-time high of $705.07 is a consequence of worries about the criticism over the new Maps application in iOS 6, and dismay expressed when Apple announced 5 million units sold in the first weekend, below some estimates.
Blair notes, as have others, that Apple doesn’t count pre-orders not yet delivered, and so such concerns are “short-sighted,” as ” every sign points to strong sell-through in the U.S. at all points of sale.” As for Maps, “the Apple Maps product is not as good as the prior Google Maps” but “there is no evidence that this is keeping anyone from buying an iPhone […] it is also clear that in the next 6 months, the Apple Maps accuracy will improve dramatically, getting better with increased usage, as Google Maps has over the years.”
Apple shares today are up $5.27, or 0.8%, at $666.58.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 3, 2012 8:12:03 GMT -8
Is mr. Kass' complaint about how light the iPhone 5 is not odd in that it counters one of the most common and highly praised attributes of the same product - it's lightness while feeling incredibly solid and stable?
How odd..he wants "a lead weight" added to a device I have to hold up to my ear for long periods?
Maybe he thinks it should double as a fishing sinker? Or maybe he does not think...
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 3, 2012 8:16:31 GMT -8
I have known Mr. Kass in a previous business life - if you think he doesn't just talk his book - you are being naive. I don't care how much of a "nice guy" some of you may think he is - it's not personal, it's business.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 3, 2012 8:21:54 GMT -8
I have known Mr. Kass in a previous business life - if you think he doesn't just talk his book - you are being naive. I don't care how much of a "nice guy" some of you may think he is - it's not personal, it's business. Well, let him put his client and his own money into shorting Apple. We need the Rocket fuel. I'm sure he is brilliant but has he held a Samsung Galaxy lately...the squeezable plastic shell is heavier.....
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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 3, 2012 8:23:38 GMT -8
I have known Mr. Kass in a previous business life - if you think he doesn't just talk his book - you are being naive. I don't care how much of a "nice guy" some of you may think he is - it's not personal, it's business. Well, let him put his client and his own money into shorting Apple. We need the Rocket fuel. I'm sure he is brilliant but has he held a Samsung Galaxy lately...the squeezable plastic shell is heavier..... Apparently, he wants a lunch box for his phone.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 3, 2012 8:23:46 GMT -8
Funny how they give any excuse for a drop in the stock instead of someone just stating the obvious: some trader(s) is sitting in a brokerage manipulating the price based on the limits the brokerage gives him/her. That person could give crap about maps. Supply chain. SJ death and a host of other nonsensense. It's not worth it (to me at least) trying to figure out what they are thinking and going to do on a day-to-day basis so I trust that as the apple cash piles up each qtr, sales increase, the fundamentals become so compelling they can't be ignored. Just my .02
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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 3, 2012 8:24:51 GMT -8
Funny how they give any excuse for a drop in the stock instead of someone just stating the obvious: some trader(s) is sitting in a brokerage manipulating the price based on the limits the brokerage gives him/her. That person could give crap about maps. Supply chain. SJ death and a host of other nonsensense. It's not worth it (to me at least) trying to figure out what they are thinking and going to do on a day-to-day basis so I trust that as the apple cash piles up each qtr, sales increase, the fundamentals become so compelling they can't be ignored. Just my .02 +100, and why I now stay far away from weekly crack
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 3, 2012 8:25:54 GMT -8
I have known Mr. Kass in a previous business life - if you think he doesn't just talk his book - you are being naive. I don't care how much of a "nice guy" some of you may think he is - it's not personal, it's business. Well, let him put his client and his own money into shorting Apple. We need the Rocket fuel. I'm sure he is brilliant but has he held a Samsung Galaxy lately...the squeezable plastic shell is heavier..... I distinctly remember him going into an apoplectic diatribe on AAPL being parabolic about 300 points ago. He said to stay short and that it was a "mania." The problem with these guys is that they won't admit when they are wrong and have access to the media to pump their book. What a joke.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 3, 2012 8:33:21 GMT -8
So far, so good. Slow bleed is still UP...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 3, 2012 8:40:51 GMT -8
I have known Mr. Kass in a previous business life - if you think he doesn't just talk his book - you are being naive. I don't care how much of a "nice guy" some of you may think he is - it's not personal, it's business. I was going to say he's probably short QQQ.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 3, 2012 8:42:03 GMT -8
So far, so good. Slow bleed is still UP... That dreaded [glow=red,2,300]666[/glow]is in the rear view mirror....may it stay so! ( and a late day volume bump, please)
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