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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 4, 2012 10:47:27 GMT -8
$666.66 retail price of the first Apple computer, AKA the beast
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Post by nagrani on Oct 4, 2012 10:49:24 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 10:54:49 GMT -8
Intriguing.
AAPL is holding onto some of its gains from yesterday. Good sign.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 10:56:44 GMT -8
That's a good one.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 4, 2012 11:07:37 GMT -8
Our correspondent from Rome has arrived. Look at me. I'm gesturing with my hands.
Welcome awcabot!!!
Bravo!
Che piacere vederti!
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Post by ccs on Oct 4, 2012 11:08:14 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Oct 4, 2012 11:28:22 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 4, 2012 12:00:37 GMT -8
The calls don't expire until Friday. Might have a green trade between market open and Friday close. Or not. AAPL is a Monday-through-Wednesday stock, unless in full sentiment mode.
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Post by doubledraw on Oct 4, 2012 12:02:45 GMT -8
great read, thanks for posting
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 12:04:09 GMT -8
There _was_ a small green trade in there, but the window was quite small, on the order of a whole friggin' half-hour or so at around 673-674. And I didn't sell then.
So for today, I'll be fine with break-even and going back to around 50% cash.
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Post by prazan on Oct 4, 2012 12:06:26 GMT -8
If anyone has a subscription to Bullish Cross, please interpret what Zaky is talking about in his tweet that came out about 1:00: "This Apple rebound may be over:bullishcross.com/2012/10/bullis..." Unfortunately, when you click on the clink, it takes you to the BC website, and you need a subscription to advance further. I'm thinking maybe this is related to the alleged production issues with the mini-IPad. He's looking at technicals here, not reacting to news. At the time of the post he was thinking Apple would retest 660 this week, strictly from a technical perspective. If it holds 660, we're off to the races on the principle of a higher low.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 4, 2012 12:08:03 GMT -8
The calls don't expire until Friday. Might have a green trade between market open and Friday close. Or not. AAPL is a Monday-through-Wednesday stock, unless in full sentiment mode. True. But there have been a few good Fridays in the recent past when AAPL has defied the curse of the weekly options expiry. Keeping that in mind, I added to my dying 680 weeklies to bring my average down. I have a 100 contracts now at an average of $1 a piece. If AAPL surges to 680-681+ tomorrow I will break even. Else I'll lose $10K.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 12:09:11 GMT -8
Lotsa different theories.
Higher low.
H&S.
Consolidation.
Tomorrow, the weekly episode of The OpEx Zone / Evil Overlord Hour (or half-day or whatever).
AAPL is still in search of a directional trend.
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Post by traitorjoe on Oct 4, 2012 12:13:25 GMT -8
IMO - Our favorite stock is really becoming difficult to trade with the market or against fundamentals
Seems as if you can only buy/hold- purchase deep ITM Leaps and hold - or wait with cash to ride extremely high beta weeks upward maybe 1 to 2x per quarter.
I have about 35 stocks on my screen - they were all green today except Apple
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 4, 2012 12:14:41 GMT -8
The slingshot is getting pulled tighter....might get tighter still tomorrow..... But next week....
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 4, 2012 12:35:27 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Oct 4, 2012 12:37:29 GMT -8
An intriguing post by Horace Dediu: "Using Capital Expenditures to predict Apple's share price" www.asymco.com
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 4, 2012 12:40:03 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 13:02:40 GMT -8
Many thanks to incorrigible for gifting us with another 500K ad-free page clicks!!!
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 4, 2012 13:11:50 GMT -8
Or not. AAPL is a Monday-through-Wednesday stock, unless in full sentiment mode. True. But there have been a few good Fridays in the recent past when AAPL has defied the curse of the weekly options expiry. Keeping that in mind, I added to my dying 680 weeklies to bring my average down. I have a 100 contracts now at an average of $1 a piece. If AAPL surges to 680-681+ tomorrow I will break even. Else I'll lose $10K. If you want to play the weekly (fixed) lottery, there isn't really much for me to say, other than pointing out that intermittent reinforcement has been shown to be one of the most powerful behavioral controls known to man. It's why slot machines are cash cows. I don't know how many weeks pain has to come true for everyone here to buy into it as a pretty good indicator. Just remember, the more weekly calls you buy, the larger open interest wall AAPL has to overcome.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 13:30:21 GMT -8
Many thanks to stkstalker for gifting us with another 750K ad-free page clicks!!!
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 4, 2012 13:52:04 GMT -8
OK, after the bear attack, I came out of my bunker. Boy, was I surprised!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 4, 2012 14:00:11 GMT -8
Sold the Nov 17 2012 740.0 Calls bought on Tuesday @ $5.00 for $6.90. Chickening out. Enough to buy an unlocked iPhone5 I wouldn't call that "chickening out", just strategic recognition of gains. 38% return in 2 days is awesome. Congratulations! Ditto! Way to go!
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Post by doubledraw on Oct 4, 2012 14:00:26 GMT -8
pretty cool to be picked up by the "mainstream" media, even if the piece isn't nearly as good as Zaky's. I wonder how many views an article like that will get.
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 4, 2012 14:53:11 GMT -8
Bought a handful of Oct 12 655 calls, thinking we should have a run up to earnings and the rumored event.
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Post by erictheoracle on Oct 4, 2012 15:25:10 GMT -8
Die, Zynga, die!
LOL
Awesome.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 4, 2012 15:25:54 GMT -8
If anyone has a subscription to Bullish Cross, please interpret what Zaky is talking about in his tweet that came out about 1:00: "This Apple rebound may be over:bullishcross.com/2012/10/bullis..." Unfortunately, when you click on the clink, it takes you to the BC website, and you need a subscription to advance further. I'm thinking maybe this is related to the alleged production issues with the mini-IPad. He's looking at technicals here, not reacting to news. At the time of the post he was thinking Apple would retest 660 this week, strictly from a technical perspective. If it holds 660, we're off to the races on the principle of a higher low. Thanks.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 4, 2012 15:31:01 GMT -8
THIS IS TROUBLING! Thursday, October 4, 6:46 PM "Based on our checks for in-store pickup at 100 U.S. Apple retail locations over the past week, we believe [iPhone 5] supply remains extremely limited," writes Gene Munster. That leads him to cut his FQ4 (September quarter) iPhone (AAPL) forecast to 25M units from a prior 27.2M. He's keeping his FQ1 target of 49M units unchanged, but cautions some of those sales could shift into FQ2 if supply constraints last for more than 3-4 weeks. (previous: I, II)
Last quarter sales were constrained because customers were "waiting" for the iPhone 5. Iphone 4 and 4S are also sold out from other reports. The NEW iPod Nano and iPod Touch ARE STILL not shipping. HMMMMMM....
I know! I know! Apple is saving all of their screens for the new iPad mini!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 4, 2012 16:00:25 GMT -8
THIS IS TROUBLING!Thursday, October 4, 6:46 PM " Based on our checks for in-store pickup at 100 U.S. Apple retail locations over the past week, we believe [iPhone 5] supply remains extremely limited," writes Gene Munster. That leads him to cut his FQ4 (September quarter) iPhone (AAPL) forecast to 25M units from a prior 27.2M. He's keeping his FQ1 target of 49M units unchanged, but cautions some of those sales could shift into FQ2 if supply constraints last for more than 3-4 weeks. (previous: I, II) Last quarter sales were constrained because customers were "waiting" for the iPhone 5. Iphone 4 and 4S are also sold out from other reports. HMMMMMM.... Dude, let's try to keep the graphics tame. Appreciate the unconventionality of your posts, but it's like shouting.
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Post by mrentropy on Oct 4, 2012 16:42:25 GMT -8
THIS IS TROUBLING!Thursday, October 4, 6:46 PM " Based on our checks for in-store pickup at 100 U.S. Apple retail locations over the past week, we believe [iPhone 5] supply remains extremely limited," writes Gene Munster. That leads him to cut his FQ4 (September quarter) iPhone (AAPL) forecast to 25M units from a prior 27.2M. He's keeping his FQ1 target of 49M units unchanged, but cautions some of those sales could shift into FQ2 if supply constraints last for more than 3-4 weeks. (previous: I, II) Last quarter sales were constrained because customers were "waiting" for the iPhone 5. Iphone 4 and 4S are also sold out from other reports. The NEW iPod Nano and iPod Touch ARE STILL not shipping. HMMMMMM.... I know! I know! Apple is saving all of their screens for the new iPad mini! This is a bit of a non sequitur. Just because the iPhone is not available in 100 stores doesn't necessarily mean supply is constrained, it could conversely mean demand is high or both. Without actual sales or production numbers, it is impossible to deduce which it is. I'm sure there are some supply constraints, but what if the supply was 30M phones and the demand exceeded that? (I'm not saying it was, but Gene has no better way of knowing than you are I do.) I think that Munster is positioning to not be the guy that overestimated again. I don't know how many phones they sold, no one does. All Gene has successfully proven is that there is most likely a lot more demand than can be met, nothing there tells me anything about supply. There is a major difference between this Quarter and the one a year ago. iPhone 5 was announced and provided one week of sales in this Quarter as opposed to last year where it happened after the Quarter. Q4 of last year from a perspective of iPhone sales decline is more comparable to Q3 of this year, which indeed saw that decline. I personally believe because of that we will see a sequential increase in iPhone numbers for this Quarter, that would mean in excess of 26M. I believe Deagol is modeling 28M. Also, this quarter represents first quarter of iPad in China. Analysts expectations are being set low because of last Quarter and Q4 last year. They can't afford to be wrong that often. So my instinct is we will get a beat, probably not by a lot though. The beat down on the stock will only help fuel some really out of a small beat. That is my thinking anyway. For what it's worth, I'm probably wrong. Don't make any investment decision off of what I say.
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