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Post by roni on Oct 4, 2012 16:51:06 GMT -8
THIS IS TROUBLING!Thursday, October 4, 6:46 PM " Based on our checks for in-store pickup at 100 U.S. Apple retail locations over the past week, we believe [iPhone 5] supply remains extremely limited," writes Gene Munster. That leads him to cut his FQ4 (September quarter) iPhone (AAPL) forecast to 25M units from a prior 27.2M. He's keeping his FQ1 target of 49M units unchanged, but cautions some of those sales could shift into FQ2 if supply constraints last for more than 3-4 weeks. (previous: I, II) Last quarter sales were constrained because customers were "waiting" for the iPhone 5. Iphone 4 and 4S are also sold out from other reports. The NEW iPod Nano and iPod Touch ARE STILL not shipping. HMMMMMM.... I know! I know! Apple is saving all of their screens for the new iPad mini! Art, you sure are an excitable fellow with complete mastery of the upper case and the bold-face thingie. A little over-dramatic, I think
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Post by jcaron on Oct 4, 2012 16:53:25 GMT -8
GM always seems to forget the impact of international sales. THIS IS TROUBLING!Thursday, October 4, 6:46 PM " Based on our checks for in-store pickup at 100 U.S. Apple retail locations over the past week, we believe [iPhone 5] supply remains extremely limited," writes Gene Munster. That leads him to cut his FQ4 (September quarter) iPhone (AAPL) forecast to 25M units from a prior 27.2M. He's keeping his FQ1 target of 49M units unchanged, but cautions some of those sales could shift into FQ2 if supply constraints last for more than 3-4 weeks. (previous: I, II) Last quarter sales were constrained because customers were "waiting" for the iPhone 5. Iphone 4 and 4S are also sold out from other reports. The NEW iPod Nano and iPod Touch ARE STILL not shipping. HMMMMMM.... I know! I know! Apple is saving all of their screens for the new iPad mini!
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Post by tradermac on Oct 4, 2012 16:59:43 GMT -8
So if we are sold out its bad cuz production problems. If we have stock it's bad because no demand. Sheesh damned if you do....
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 4, 2012 17:00:36 GMT -8
No idea why we were down in AH but as an fyi - this came out:
Samsung's Galaxy phones drive record $7.3 billion profit
The story is online - yahoo finance or any other service has it
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 4, 2012 17:02:07 GMT -8
Down 0.22%. I call that margin of error.
Good for Samsung, I guess. They have room to shift mix to Galaxy-type phones, and as they continue to do so, profits will probably continue to grow.
Handset growth is a critical metric for how a vendor is doing - but we don't get breakouts from Samsung on smartphone sales (or handset unit sales period, IIRC), unlike Apple which only sells smartphones. The "reference" point is supposedly around 60M handsets this quarter with 18-20M flagship Galaxy S III sales.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 4, 2012 17:11:04 GMT -8
THIS IS TROUBLING!Thursday, October 4, 6:46 PM " Based on our checks for in-store pickup at 100 U.S. Apple retail locations over the past week, we believe [iPhone 5] supply remains extremely limited," writes Gene Munster. That leads him to cut his FQ4 (September quarter) iPhone (AAPL) forecast to 25M units from a prior 27.2M. He's keeping his FQ1 target of 49M units unchanged, but cautions some of those sales could shift into FQ2 if supply constraints last for more than 3-4 weeks. (previous: I, II) Last quarter sales were constrained because customers were "waiting" for the iPhone 5. Iphone 4 and 4S are also sold out from other reports. The NEW iPod Nano and iPod Touch ARE STILL not shipping. HMMMMMM.... I know! I know! Apple is saving all of their screens for the new iPad mini! I must be missing something. Even with that huge font, I don't see any trouble.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 4, 2012 17:12:03 GMT -8
Has anyone actually seen an S3 in the wild? I've seriously never seen one. All I see are iPhones. Although I will admit that I am in an extremely biased population. I do see lots of 4/4S that need tobe upgraded
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Post by rosie on Oct 4, 2012 17:28:09 GMT -8
Has anyone actually seen an S3 in the wild? I've seriously never seen one. All I see are iPhones. Although I will admit that I am in an extremely biased population. I do see lots of 4/4S that need tobe upgraded I bumped into an acquaintance when I was in town today....we always share our tech stories as she lives even farther out in the boonies than I do. Anyhow she had the Samsung phone and she said "yes , it's just like your iPhone except it locks up unpredictably and hordes text messages and then deluges recipients with days and weeks old messages. She said it isn't a carrier issue as she knows a couple of people with other carriers having similar issues. Then there was the guy I saw who literally had a phone the size of a small box mashed into his ear. I was fascinated. I almost took a pic with my phone but thought better of it...'cause if he got mad he could have just hit me with the phone and I'd be seeing one of your co workers in an ER . Next week is going to be good.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 4, 2012 17:52:23 GMT -8
There _was_ a small green trade in there, but the window was quite small, on the order of a whole friggin' half-hour or so at around 673-674. And I didn't sell then. So for today, I'll be fine with break-even and going back to around 50% cash. I sold half my positions around 702 and was able to buy back some Jan 700s AT the LOD... I felt enriched about that until the closing bell fade... As JD, said, all pretty much OE (monkey) business as usual.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 4, 2012 17:57:31 GMT -8
Pain range is 665-669.99, with lots of put support @ 650-660, which is good.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 4, 2012 17:59:10 GMT -8
Has anyone actually seen an S3 in the wild? I've seriously never seen one. All I see are iPhones. Although I will admit that I am in an extremely biased population. I do see lots of 4/4S that need tobe upgraded A guy opened a busier-every-day iRepair shop near my office... I know San Diego has more than its share, but it still surprises and delights me multiple times a day now to see how many really hot women are now parading past my window looking lovingly at their just-repaired iPhones. Is there a hot chick who has anything OTHER than an iPhone??? I think it's rare.
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Post by nkmho on Oct 4, 2012 18:01:32 GMT -8
Has anyone actually seen an S3 in the wild? I've seriously never seen one. All I see are iPhones. Although I will admit that I am in an extremely biased population. I do see lots of 4/4S that need tobe upgraded A guy opened a busier-every-day iRepair shop near my office... I know San Diego has more than its share, but it still surprises and delights me multiple times a day now to see how many really hot women are now parading past my window looking lovingly at their just-repaired iPhones. Is there a hot chick who has anything OTHER than an iPhone??? I think it's rare. This post is incomplete without pictures...
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 4, 2012 18:04:29 GMT -8
A guy opened a busier-every-day iRepair shop near my office... I know San Diego has more than its share, but it still surprises and delights me multiple times a day now to see how many really hot women are now parading past my window looking lovingly at their just-repaired iPhones. Is there a hot chick who has anything OTHER than an iPhone??? I think it's rare. This post is incomplete without pictures... OK, for that one, I really did LOL.
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Post by jumar on Oct 4, 2012 18:15:40 GMT -8
Then there was the guy I saw who literally had a phone the size of a small box mashed into his ear. I was fascinated. I almost took a pic with my phone but thought better of it...'cause if he got mad he could have just hit me with the phone and I'd be seeing one of your co workers in an ER . That would be the ridiculous monstrosity called the Samsung Note.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 4, 2012 19:13:40 GMT -8
A guy opened a busier-every-day iRepair shop near my office... I know San Diego has more than its share, but it still surprises and delights me multiple times a day now to see how many really hot women are now parading past my window looking lovingly at their just-repaired iPhones. Is there a hot chick who has anything OTHER than an iPhone??? I think it's rare. This post is incomplete without pictures... This post is incomplete without video. On a not so related note, I took a video tonight of a car called an Edison on Chestnut street in SF. All I can say is ...extraordinary. Of course, video was taken on iPhone 5.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 4, 2012 19:18:14 GMT -8
Was it this car?
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Post by macziggy on Oct 4, 2012 19:23:19 GMT -8
I went into an unfamiliar area of Orange County in Southern California this afternoon and I decided to let my Apple Maps app guide me home, rather than my Garmin. And, it was astonishing. Absolutely fantastic turn-by-turn voice navigation. And, the visuals on the iPhone were really cool, too.
When I would lock my iPhone and then unlock it, the Map app would automatically appear and continue guiding me visually. Even with my phone locked, the voice navigation continued. It was really neat.
Maybe the app worked so well because I live in a hugely populated area. Whatever. I was hugely impressed and I think this app has great potential. It was fun to use. Like Apple always is.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 4, 2012 19:33:33 GMT -8
This post is incomplete without pictures... This post is incomplete without video. On a not so related note, I took a video tonight of a car called an Edison on Chestnut street in SF. All I can say is ...extraordinary. Of course, video was taken on iPhone 5. I've actually thought about that, just to meet AFB's "facts-only" standards, of course. But taking pics of random passersby would be too creepy, I suspect, for those who weren't aware I was doing Apple research. The short shorts with UG boots are still really in out here.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 4, 2012 19:56:37 GMT -8
The short shorts with UG boots are still really in out here. Mmmmmmm, short shorts. No such thing as to short. ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2012 19:59:53 GMT -8
AAPL acting a bit sluggishly this morning after the recent rally. AAPL's intraday low and high (including today) are up two days in a row. That does not constitute a rally, nor is it sluggish. Now if both intraday high and low are up again tomorrow, that has all the earmarks of a beginning rally, although I'd like to see greater volume.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 4, 2012 20:03:54 GMT -8
The short shorts with UG boots are still really in out here. Mmmmmmm, short shorts. No such thing as to short. ;D Tell that to Ed Zabitsky.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 4, 2012 20:32:22 GMT -8
Tell that to Ed Zabitsky. Great, why not just hit me with a hammer?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2012 21:30:29 GMT -8
This is a bit of a non sequitur. Just because the iPhone is not available in 100 stores doesn't necessarily mean supply is constrained, it could conversely mean demand is high or both. Without actual sales or production numbers, it is impossible to deduce which it is. I'm sure there are some supply constraints, but what if the supply was 30M phones and the demand exceeded that? (I'm not saying it was, but Gene has no better way of knowing than you are I do.) I think that Munster is positioning to not be the guy that overestimated again. I don't know how many phones they sold, no one does. All Gene has successfully proven is that there is most likely a lot more demand than can be met, nothing there tells me anything about supply. That is my thinking anyway. For what it's worth, I'm probably wrong. Don't make any investment decision off of what I say. You aren't wrong. I don't know how many times someone has tried to make an argument about demand, based on supply. Without knowing the supply, you cannot deduce the demand. At this point only Apple knows the supply numbers necessary to deduce demand. Good post. Now its off to bed (early for me tonight).
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