chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 1, 2014 19:24:57 GMT -8
The bar is open!
A minor retreat this week does not seem surprising given the havoc in the markets and the world. Happy to hear TA or FA arguments to support/refute the hypothesis.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Aug 1, 2014 21:01:00 GMT -8
Popping an IPA right now...
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2014 1:01:04 GMT -8
Coveting an invite to buy a smartphone? (OnePlus One)
If I had a second cold beverage, I'd chug it right now.
To *most* people, it's, er, just preordering.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2014 1:36:50 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 2, 2014 6:49:00 GMT -8
I like the new commercial...a great bridge to iPhone 6 where the focus will shift to health, home and ease of payment.
Changing the world in different ways
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Aug 2, 2014 7:01:13 GMT -8
Very puzzling setup has formed: -Economy slow but steady improvement -Most stocks at all time highs -Fed backing off support -Everyone expecting correction -AAPL near all time high -New products (and categories) coming -AAPL stock swings (manipulation) have disappeared
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Aug 2, 2014 8:18:06 GMT -8
Great commercial. Very nicely done. Thanks for posting it.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2014 8:34:21 GMT -8
Great commercial. Very nicely done. Thanks for posting it. over 100,000 views in one day on youtubee.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2014 9:11:49 GMT -8
I'm catching up on some reading...here's a good autopsy of Microsoft by John Kirk (formerly known as Falkirk). I realize some of this is 20-20 hindsight, but Microsoft's many failed attempts at responding to competition are so very Ballmeresque. Nadella was predictably opaque with his "call to arms" email to resuscitate the caretakers of this leviathan, because I don't think he knows yet. techpinions.com/microsoft-is-the-very-antithesis-of-strategy/32303
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2014 9:27:04 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 2, 2014 10:38:39 GMT -8
I pulled the data back to august 2010 did a coefficient of correlation between open and close between VZAPL and price. Close was -0.1599 Open was -0.1548
next i will try to correlate the change in VXAPL and price. Below is the price and change in VXAPL change from the previous day. Still no luck, suggestions?
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 2, 2014 11:06:50 GMT -8
In the bottom chart there does seem to be a reaction by the market when VXAPL gets to around +10 or -10, but is delayed by several days up to a couple of weeks. Edit the bottom chart does't show change in VX to Price. The one below does.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Aug 2, 2014 11:18:33 GMT -8
Weren't there supposed to be options tied to this index? There was a press release back in 2011.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Aug 2, 2014 11:25:28 GMT -8
It might be interesting to calculate a moving exponential average for each data set and then look for correlation. As you vary the weight of the decay factor, you might smooth out some noise. Just an idea
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 2, 2014 11:46:53 GMT -8
One last chart. I narrowed the data to 2012 - Friday. I adjusted the change in VX from the previous day to overlay the stock price. Not much information to glean. But it does appear that a very large drop in VX does portend an upswing or is in the middle of an upswing. I labeled the larger of the VX drops.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2014 15:53:15 GMT -8
Hope everyone's enjoying the weekend.
Patently Apple is suggesting Apple wave the white flag on NFC. Yeah, I'm not so sure (which is partly why I'm not linking to them).
Apple requires a superior implementation and security model if they'd ever want to implement Wave 'n Pray (there's also that double-edged sword of increasing NFC transmission distance - Google recommends actually tapping the smartphone to pay - and the theoretical field at which NFC scanners or whatever could swipe the payment info of the unaware). So, since BT 4.0 is much longer range and encryptable, why not use iBeacon?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2014 18:03:54 GMT -8
Travis noted that 411k contracts out of 481k contracts expired worthless last week. The minis are invisible. This coming week, open interest is significantly lighter (less than half), possibly indicating capitulation among weekly option traders.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2014 18:09:39 GMT -8
An intriguing look at what possibly may be how Apple's iWatch obtains critical mass for a new wearable that's much more than a watch. Apple offers all the smart watch makers a platform to build and market their own designs with Apple hardware innards.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 2, 2014 21:48:59 GMT -8
My favorite tweet of the day:
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 2, 2014 22:18:57 GMT -8
I see iWearables pretty much the same as iPod, iPhone, iPad.
Why wouldn't Apple make one itself?
|
|
|
Post by PikesPique on Aug 3, 2014 5:04:30 GMT -8
Travis noted that 411k contracts out of 481k contracts expired worthless last week. The minis are invisible. This coming week, open interest is significantly lighter (less than half), possibly indicating capitulation among weekly option traders. Weekly options have been working great for me - selling them, not buying them.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2014 5:40:20 GMT -8
I see iWearables pretty much the same as iPod, iPhone, iPad. Why wouldn't Apple make one itself? Oh, I think they will, maybe in two sizes. But if you want corner the market (and sell more iPhones), open it up to all. There's enough margin at the high end to have Apple making 30-35% just from reselling iWatches produced by others, Might Apple have a new table for its version and others? They're doing that now with headphones (e.g. Beats).
|
|
|
Post by mjuarez on Aug 3, 2014 6:55:02 GMT -8
Travis noted that 411k contracts out of 481k contracts expired worthless last week. The minis are invisible. This coming week, open interest is significantly lighter (less than half), possibly indicating capitulation among weekly option traders. Weekly options have been working great for me - selling them, not buying them. Which strike prices have you been selling? I'm assuming you're selling call verticals?
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 3, 2014 7:15:03 GMT -8
Off the wall idea.
The iWatch is an add on to existing watches.
The screen is clear when not activated so a Rolex looks like a Rolex. Activate the screen now you see the iWatch user interface.
The electronics, battery, sensors etc are a in the wrist band. That might be disruptive.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 3, 2014 7:18:18 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 3, 2014 7:30:10 GMT -8
I see iWearables pretty much the same as iPod, iPhone, iPad. Why wouldn't Apple make one itself? Oh, I think they will, maybe in two sizes. But if you want corner the market (and sell more iPhones), open it up to all. There's enough margin at the high end to have Apple making 30-35% just from reselling iWatches produced by others, Might Apple have a new table for its version and others? They're doing that now with headphones (e.g. Beats). If There was an Iwatch that carried the Cartier or Movado brand but took the Commodore's blood pressure twice a day so that portable cup she uses now could be discarded, she'd make me buy it for her in a minute......
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Aug 3, 2014 7:48:46 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by PikesPique on Aug 3, 2014 9:08:23 GMT -8
Weekly options have been working great for me - selling them, not buying them. Which strike prices have you been selling? I'm assuming you're selling call verticals? Covered calls @ 101 to 102, recently. Cash secured puts (I.e., naked puts) @ 92 to 94, recently. One to two weeks out. Rinse and repeat, adjusting strikes as needed. YMMV. This is not advice! Beware the risks! You may be put shares or have them called away.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 3, 2014 9:59:20 GMT -8
It might be interesting to calculate a moving exponential average for each data set and then look for correlation. As you vary the weight of the decay factor, you might smooth out some noise. Just an idea How does one calculate the moving exponential average (re: and would this be for both VX and stock price), or vary the weight of the decay factor? I did look at the Poorman's Algo and since 1/1/14 some interesting numbers. For all numbers it assumes buying AAPL on the close Friday. Selling on Tuesday there are 7 losing trades and 23 winning trades. (assuming one share of stock up 17.8879) Selling on Wednesday there are 10 losing trades and 20 winning trades. (assuming one share of stock up 19.7684) Selling on Thursday there are 8 losing trades and 22 winning trades. (assuming one share of stock up 19.7761) Maybe some one can check my work. but it is interesting that Wednesday had the lowest % winners but the second highest gain. This is only working with stock, time decay if doing options could be a killer.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Aug 3, 2014 10:48:17 GMT -8
Wait.....Someone actually reads my posts? Here is a link to a pretty good explanation of how to calculate it stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averagesIt just seemed to me that correlation could be confounded by random noise. Also beware that most people ignore the question of independence in the data. Most statistical techniques require independence, but price data seems to be strongly auto correlated. I think you are safe from this since you are comparing stock price and volatility. Oh, and yes...compare EMA's for both
|
|