|
Post by incorrigible on Oct 5, 2012 14:36:32 GMT -8
Bar is officially open. I think we all need a drink. I started @ 3:30PM
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 5, 2012 14:51:23 GMT -8
I need to get away from this computer -- and have a glass of wine or beer or even isopropyl at this point.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Oct 5, 2012 15:07:17 GMT -8
On the bus on the way home. New fence installed today.
I will drink tonight and cut up the old fence for kindling tomorrow. Forty year old cedar makes fine kindling
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 5, 2012 16:30:52 GMT -8
Turning on the electric fireplace (okay, its an oil furnace). I kind of took some time off from trading, so it served me okay.
The last time that Andy Zaky spoke so positively, AAPL had a great run.
An unusual confluence of events ahead gives me optimism for us. HPQ is not finished suffering in stock price.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 5, 2012 17:52:16 GMT -8
From Travis:
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Oct 5, 2012 18:40:13 GMT -8
Turning on the electric fireplace (okay, its an oil furnace). I kind of took some time off from trading, so it served me okay. The last time that Andy Zaky spoke so positively, AAPL had a great run. An unusual confluence of events ahead gives me optimism for us. HPQ is not finished suffering in stock price. Agreed. My options are redder then ever ( actually ever since this the first time I bought monthlies) But I have never been more at peace and confident we will weather the storm. Like I said in Braeburngroup, it is déjà vu from last year. In 6 months we will forget about 650 and celebrate 950.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 18:42:04 GMT -8
Hey, what's a sampling of the Braeburn buzz on the recent price action these days sponge? And where the heck did Mercel go? Does he not like us anymore?
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 5, 2012 18:58:39 GMT -8
I know the official buy back is small and only meant to prevent dilution from employee stock options, but wouldn't it by nice if Breaburn Capitial would invest some of the $100+ billion under management on AAPL common stock? AAPL sure sems like a great buy right now.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 5, 2012 19:07:40 GMT -8
I know the official buy back is small and only meant to prevent dilution from employee stock options, but wouldn't it by nice if Breaburn Capitial would invest some of the $100+ billion under management on AAPL common stock? AAPL sure sems like a great buy right now. They would have to announce. It is my hope that Apple one day actually buys a serious amount of shares back, one day.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Oct 5, 2012 19:08:27 GMT -8
Hey, what's a sampling of the Braeburn buzz on the recent price action these days sponge? And where the heck did Mercel go? Does he not like us anymore? [/quote They are just as frustrated and perplexed about the action. Nick Nansen and a few of us understand the manipulation so we don't worry as much. Mercel is doing fine and Robert is a great host.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 19:11:43 GMT -8
Tell Mercel and Robert we said hi. Wonder if Mercel will ever rejoin the "AFB", even though this isn't exactly the original. I dunno what to call today's ugly action. But we've been through this crap before. If there's "good" news, the selling may help price in any negative reactions to Red October.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 19:14:06 GMT -8
I know the official buy back is small and only meant to prevent dilution from employee stock options, but wouldn't it by nice if Breaburn Capitial would invest some of the $100+ billion under management on AAPL common stock? AAPL sure sems like a great buy right now. They would have to announce. It is my hope that Apple one day actually buys a serious amount of shares back, one day. At first, I actually wanted Apple to just plain buy back stock instead of issue the divvy...that way share creep would be nullified, even reversed a bit, and shareholders could still realize value without the whole dividend tax deal. Though I'm fine with the current state of affairs, and I understand that bizarre "stigma" about stock buybacks (in no small part because only the troubled companies tend to do that). The possible end of share creep with the current plan is a big plus.
|
|
|
Post by ccs on Oct 5, 2012 19:48:42 GMT -8
I CAN NOT believe the price action this week. Once we bounced off the 50day earlier I thought for sure we'd begin a run up. I held back and watched us break 675ish only to return to 650 today. I backed the truck up today, then caught wind of the Foxconn strike. Needless to say I'm a little nervous. Luckily (or wisely), I didn't buy anything this side of FEB'13. Good luck to all!
|
|
|
Post by tradermac on Oct 5, 2012 21:34:34 GMT -8
I CAN NOT believe the price action this week. Once we bounced off the 50day earlier I thought for sure we'd begin a run up. I held back and watched us break 675ish only to return to 650 today. I backed the truck up today, then caught wind of the Foxconn strike. Needless to say I'm a little nervous. Luckily (or wisely), I didn't buy anything this side of FEB'13. Good luck to all! I'm pretty sure a ton of other folks thought so as well which is why we went back down. They never make it THAT easy. Real bottoms form when everyone is scared to BTFD. So far I keep hearing everyone say they WILL BTFD.
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Oct 6, 2012 3:51:16 GMT -8
I am not too surprised or worried about the price action. Actually, I expect AAPL to hit the 100day MA within the next few weeks.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 6, 2012 4:00:09 GMT -8
Tell Mercel and Robert we said hi. Wonder if Mercel will ever rejoin the "AFB", even though this isn't exactly the original. I dunno what to call today's ugly action. But we've been through this crap before. If there's "good" news, the selling may help price in any negative reactions to Red October. Red October? Since it is "my month" lets all realize that the price action recently has nothing, N-O-T-H-I-N-G, to do with the fundamental story that is AAPL. We have seen this before and we will see it again. I despise the manipulation, but it is a fact of life. Now, in three weeks we will have a new product in the Mini, record sales of our highest margin product ( iPhone), solid fiscal 4th quarter earnings, putting us somewhere north of 46 bucks for the year. The dividend may get increased too.....put that cash to work! 46 bucks times at a trailing P/E of 14.5 ( cheap!) gets us to 662. But the ice cream awaiting those who eat their Brussels sprouts now is the impact of guidance for Q1. Really....is 14 dollar guidance not realistic? I could see higher guidance, but earnings actually delivering 18.75 bucks a share or more..... If Apple guides to 14 with an expectation of 19 in actuality, November and December won't be Red ( much as I enjoy that color in other contexts). Apple is not slowing down. Forget the FUD. FUD is designed to make true believers question their faith, thereby making more shares available to those same people who spread the nonsense in the first place. Hang tough...better days ahead!
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 6, 2012 5:37:59 GMT -8
I CAN NOT believe the price action this week. Once we bounced off the 50day earlier I thought for sure we'd begin a run up. I held back and watched us break 675ish only to return to 650 today. I backed the truck up today, then caught wind of the Foxconn strike. Needless to say I'm a little nervous. Luckily (or wisely), I didn't buy anything this side of FEB'13. Good luck to all! Don't forget that the S&P did a really ugly reversal Friday. When it tanked, AAPL had no choice. Not only am I concerned about AAPL, now I worry the market has turned against us. After this past week I was thinking 1500 for the S&P, now I have to regroup. If we have the market turning against it will be very difficult for us to climb. Not very encouraged right now.
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 6, 2012 6:30:03 GMT -8
I like the tone of the messages on the board - unhappy realism. It makes me feel we are much closer to the bottom of this dip than the top. I think we mostly know the price action has separated from reality and this is setting us up for a rebound, absent overall market sentiment and margin contraction. The coming event, earnings and the confirmation of sales will light the fuse. The Christmas season will be the second stage igniting. Jan earnings will put us in orbit. Then we can rendezvous with Red in his ship. Just don't get trapped against soon to expire options and we should be fine. Having most of my holdings with Apr 13 and Jan 14 expiration dates takes a lot of pressure off my mind. Sure, we could have made more money by correctly timing the dip, but those successes are usually outweighed by failures and should be savored when they work. One lesson I hope sticks from recent trading is to keep more of a cash cushion and common shares for future sales. Options provide enough potential upside that I can ease back on the throttle a little and I would like to be in a position to play the EOs, rather than be played by them. Keep a firm grip on the emotions and and execute your plan. Good trading!
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 6, 2012 6:47:20 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 6, 2012 7:09:45 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mrentropy on Oct 6, 2012 7:11:00 GMT -8
Did this action Friday have enough volume to feel like capitulation to anyone, or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
|
|
|
Post by roni on Oct 6, 2012 7:19:47 GMT -8
Good morning,
I spent a bunch of money in the market yesterday. Fortunately most of it was at the end of the day, but before I knew about the strike in China.
Here is the recap. Dividend stocks ex-AAPL are up to 26% of our IRAS. If AAPL shares are included, it hits 32%.
Cash is down to 3.3%
Here is the Apple rundown as a percentage of the portfolio balance.
6% shares 10.5% Jan 2015 $800 LEAPS 39% Jan 2014 $600 LEAPS 6.7% April $750 calls 8% April $700 calls
A view of our apples as a percentage of our AAPL holdings
Apple shares - 8.5% April calls - 20.7% Jan 2014 LEAPs - 55.7% Jan 2015 LEAPS - 15%
I am generally all right with that AAPL risk profile, but I am feeling like I went a bit overboard on April out of the money calls yesterday afternoon. This morning I am inclined to view those as traders.
I like the fact that our non-AAPL dividend stocks equal a dollar amount that is a bit over our total portfolio balances on Jan 1, 2012.
Hope everyone got through the week all right!
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 6, 2012 7:35:17 GMT -8
|
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447
|
Post by icam on Oct 6, 2012 7:40:25 GMT -8
Just don't get trapped against soon to expire options and we should be fine. Having most of my holdings with Apr 13 and Jan 14 expiration dates takes a lot of pressure off my mind. Sure, we could have made more money by correctly timing the dip, but those successes are usually outweighed by failures and should be savored when they work. One lesson I hope sticks from recent trading is to keep more of a cash cushion and common shares for future sales. Options provide enough potential upside that I can ease back on the throttle a little and I would like to be in a position to play the EOs, rather than be played by them. Keep a firm grip on the emotions and and execute your plan. Good trading! +1 Buying the F'n dip the whole way down.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 6, 2012 7:40:28 GMT -8
Last quarter, in the roller-coaster run-up to earnings, I was watching the options market. There was a day in particular when I saw the option prices literally collapse to levels they had been when the underlying was 30 (IIRC) points lower. IMHO, that was capitulation. That's when I posted about my rare (semi-annual at most) purchase of unhedged calls: those OCT'12 650 beauties. So I'm looking for the same thing...no guarantees I'll see it again, but I'll post if I do. For myself, I am trying reaaallly hard to restrict core purchases to APR'13 and beyond. Psychologically/ emotionally I can't endure the decimation of front month options, and I will inevitably undertake damage control measures whether necessary or not -- which can be a blessing or a curse. We all have our challenges -- tests we continually flunk and retake -- and that's one of mine. My other biggie (getting better on this one) is pacing dip purchases -- resisting the temptation to buy everything in sight on every single dip, then being too far underwater to risk more capital when the best WTF sale comes along. Forcing myself to take small bites. A dear trading buddy of mine loved to say, "Go big, or go home." To me, it's: "Stay small, and don't risk your home."
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 6, 2012 8:00:48 GMT -8
I like the fact that our non-AAPL dividend stocks equal a dollar amount that is a bit over our total portfolio balances on Jan 1, 2012. I like your dividend stock strategy and am planning on implementing something similar myself when my Apr 13 calls get sold. I plan to put a third quickly back into options (most likely LEAP or Oct 13 options), a third into divvy stocks with multiple purchases and hold a third as cash for the next AAPL WTF sales. As future options are cashed, i would rinse and repeat. As most of my money is in my Roth IRA, the divvy stocks will be especially sweet - I should be able to get a tax-free 4% average current yield on the divvy stocks with the potential stock appreciation to boot!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 6, 2012 8:01:27 GMT -8
For what it's worth, note: we've been consolidating in this 648-705 range for a month now. Despite some technical red flags (all of which could disappear any moment), there's also a general rule of thumb that says: expect the range to HOLD until proven otherwise.
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 6, 2012 8:03:27 GMT -8
Last quarter, in the roller-coaster run-up to earnings, I was watching the options market. There was a day in particular when I saw the option prices literally collapse to levels they had been when the underlying was 30 (IIRC) points lower. IMHO, that was capitulation. That's when I posted about my rare (semi-annual at most) purchase of unhedged calls: those OCT'12 650 beauties. So I'm looking for the same thing...no guarantees I'll see it again, but I'll post if I do. For myself, I am trying reaaallly hard to restrict core purchases to APR'13 and beyond. Psychologically/ emotionally I can't endure the decimation of front month options, and I will inevitably undertake damage control measures whether necessary or not -- which can be a blessing or a curse. We all have our challenges -- tests we continually flunk and retake -- and that's one of mine. My other biggie (getting better on this one) is pacing dip purchases -- resisting the temptation to buy everything in sight on every single dip, then being too far underwater to risk more capital when the best WTF sale comes along. Forcing myself to take small bites. A dear trading buddy of mine loved to say, "Go big, or go home." To me, it's: "Stay small, and don't risk your home." +1!
|
|
|
Post by nate010203 on Oct 6, 2012 9:31:40 GMT -8
Foxconn Denies Its China iPhone Plant Hit by Strike Foxconn Technology Group, the Taiwanese made-to-order electronics giant that assembles Apple's products, denied reports that a plant in China was crippled by a strike, saying on Saturday that its production is on schedule at an important time for Apple. www.cnbc.com/id/49311163Another articled titled: have apples foxconn workers gone on strike or not www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/10/06/have-apples-foxconn-workers-gone-on-strike-or-not/How much percentage wise does foxconn produce of apple products. With the ipad mini (not yet confirmed), the new iphone 5 and the holiday quarter coming up Im hoping this little drop will be but a blip on the radar. Also I would really appreciate it if people didn't Private Message me and ask me if I am a real person and leaving mean messages. Thank you.
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Oct 6, 2012 10:09:10 GMT -8
Anyone having trouble with the iPhone app? Mine started crashing today, but the iPad app and web access work fine.
|
|