Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 20, 2014 3:59:51 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. It is a RED morning. All major indices and AAPL are down. AAPL is trading at 114.36-0.31 (0.27%) at 6:35. Hopefully we turn around. Katy' Huberty's comments and revised price target (up to $126 from $115) should help. For context, a 10% pullback from our high of $115.74 is $104.17. Fortunately, sub $100 is looking increasingly unlikely. The news is quiet this morning. An interesting piece from Kate MacKenzie at PixoBebo, Apple’s Somewhat Obvious Plan To Maybe Kinda Sorta Possibly Kill The iPhone. Interesting speculation. Kate understands Apple's MO. Bad news for Android folks, Android Lollipop update causes problems from the BBC. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by rickag on Nov 20, 2014 4:22:48 GMT -8
Regarding the Bad news for Android article, the last few lines seem to indicate fragmentation is still alive and well.
If this were Apple there'd be talk of class action lawsuits.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 20, 2014 4:25:44 GMT -8
The usual story of Apple analysts stumbling over each other to upgrade their price targets:
Evercore ISI raises target price to $135 from $125; rating buy
Piper Jaffray raises target price to $135 from $120; rating overweight
Munster commented, "based on our checks of in-store availability and industry checks of iPhone 6 and 6+, we believe that supply is gradually improving vs. demand, but Apple still has a gap to close ahead of the core holiday shopping season. Our checks suggest that 58% of core SKUs were available as of the end of last week, up from 6% in mid-October. Given that Apple likely knew its supply limits when issuing Dec-14 guidance, we don't believe there is risk to numbers, but do believe the supply constraints could limit meaningful upside in December. However, we also believe that most consumers will wait to get an iPhone, thus the supply limits should extend the cycle into March."
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Post by redinaustin on Nov 20, 2014 4:54:05 GMT -8
"However, we also believe that most consumers will wait to get an iPhone, thus the supply limits should extend the cycle into March.""
Gee ya think Gene?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 20, 2014 5:01:58 GMT -8
Just one small data point on iPhone availability. My company ordered 10 new iPhone 6 64 gig, various colors, from AT&T ten business days ago. The stated wait time was 10-14 business days. Shipping notices arrived for nine devices yesterday on the 9th business day since order. Phones will arrive next Tuesday, the 13th business day...
The one gold one will likely ship today according to our rep.
Munster's comments seem dumb. Would anybody not wait ten days ( less in an Apple Store) to get the best phone? Who is going to say...."darn it, Apple will make me wait a week, give me that plastic Galaxy thing instead"
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 20, 2014 5:19:17 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 20, 2014 5:35:15 GMT -8
Part of the Morgan Stanley analysis...10% of iphone 5 and newer owners will buy the Apple watch. 9to5mac.com/2014/11/20/apple-watch-sales/"Our 30M Apple Watch unit estimate in CY15 [Calendar Year 2015] is at the high end of consensus and arguably still conservative. Street estimates run the gamut,with most ranging between 10M and 30M units in the first year. We believelooking at penetration into the Apple installed base yields the most realistic assessment of demand potential of the Watch. Our 30M unit estimate implies 10% penetration into Apple’s 315M iPhone 5 or newer installed base exiting 2014, which is lower than iPad penetration of 14% in its first year."
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Post by rob_london on Nov 20, 2014 5:35:55 GMT -8
China Mobile's customer data for October has just been released. Looking at the data, the number of 3G customers (243 million) declined from the previous month. First time ever on their network? However the number of 4G customers grew to 54 million, an additional 13.5 million being added in October. We don't know what percentage of the 54 million are using iPhones but back in April a couple of WS analysts had predicted ~20 million iPhones on the China Mobile 4G network by the end of 2014.
Apparently China Mobile are aiming for 300 million users on their TD-LTE network by 2016.
Update: China Mobile are expected to reach 70 million TD-LTE users by end of 2014.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 20, 2014 5:39:55 GMT -8
70 million TD-LTE users on a proprietary technology this fast is quite something....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 20, 2014 5:48:38 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 6:14:02 GMT -8
Institutional ownership is key here. This is the support under Apple. It appears the dips are being bought.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 6:30:35 GMT -8
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Post by ericinaustin on Nov 20, 2014 6:37:40 GMT -8
Two notes last night of interest. IBM. NEW 7 bil. Deal with Lufthansa is an example of where the iPad sales and iPhone sales will increasingly show up in enterprise.
Also Lenovo reports slowing smartphone sales in China. No one said it but I suspect iPhone is a major factor here and we will see this in the numbers soon.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 6:49:53 GMT -8
Ooh la la. Run AAPL Run.
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Post by jmolloy on Nov 20, 2014 6:50:36 GMT -8
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 7:00:22 GMT -8
Microsoft's Surface Pro 3 tablet is now the gadget of choice for Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines' pilots. According to a post on Microsoft's official blog published Wednesday, pilots hired by both Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines will be equipped with the devices. Lufthansa has purchased more than 5,000 Surface Pro 3 tablets, which will be rolled out to pilots worldwide in February and March 2015. [/quote] Lufthansa has "purchased"..... Yeah, for a buck? Microsoft no doubt sold them for a heavily discounted price, to say they sold them, in contrast to gifting them to the NFL for marketing purposes. I'd be a little more nervous about flying Lufthansa now....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 20, 2014 7:36:21 GMT -8
The battle for 116 continues...back and forth. The longer it hangs here, the better chance for break up.....
That goofy 117 print bugs me......
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 7:54:43 GMT -8
The battle for 116 continues...back and forth. The longer it hangs here, the better chance for break up..... That goofy 117 print bugs me...... Patience, grasshopper....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 20, 2014 8:10:39 GMT -8
The battle for 116 continues...back and forth. The longer it hangs here, the better chance for break up..... That goofy 117 print bugs me...... Patience, grasshopper.... LOL. UP 2 bucks now. Boom. Patience of 20 minutes rewarded
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 20, 2014 8:12:03 GMT -8
Henry Blodgett on CNBC talking about Uber's Ethics .... sometimes truth is really stranger than fiction.
Cheers to the longs !!!
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Post by macwire on Nov 20, 2014 8:13:59 GMT -8
Zippity doo dah...
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Post by rickag on Nov 20, 2014 8:16:04 GMT -8
Funny you should mention that, I actually had an uncle Remus.
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Post by zzmac on Nov 20, 2014 8:31:31 GMT -8
Give me a w - W! Give me an h - H! Give me a bunch of eeeeee - EEEEE! What do you got? WHEEEEEE!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Nov 20, 2014 8:35:16 GMT -8
Henry Blodgett on CNBC talking about Uber's Ethics .... sometimes truth is really stranger than fiction. Cheers to the longs !!! Here is video of Blodget talking about how he dealt with the humiliation of being banned from Wall Street for securities fraud . youtu.be/cjiNYMA2hU0It is hard to watch it and not feel some sympathy. The part where he apologizes to his father who has the same name for the embarrassment he caused seemed almost human. Almost. Then at around 1:44 he says "Fortunately, this is only a personal integrity disaster". Just integrity, nothing serious. I don't think that I have seen a more direct admission of a lack of character since the Cramer video where Cramer is talking openly about how to manipulate Apple. Or perhaps everything every published by Michael Blair on SA. I struggle to find a positive side to having people like Blodget in the world, much less in the industry, but I guess there is this...blatant shameless and visible crooks like Blodget are a constant reminder to any investor to question advice and guidance from those who claim to know. I guess it is better to have visible dishonesty than well concealed theft. Other than that, I think he is a swell guy
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 20, 2014 8:51:24 GMT -8
I seem to recall some commentator on cnbc or bloomberg at the time saying 5% was an allocation limit for so many funds that AAPL had peaked as it approached 5% of the s&p500. Turned out to be right on the AAPL 2012 peak, but it's interesting that IBM in the 80's made it to 6%, so 5% is not an impenetrable limit. Of course in 2012, most of the talk was about how AAPL was >20% of the Nasdaq 100, although almost every commentator said "the Nasdaq" which is quite a different statement. It will be interesting to see how high the weighting of AAPL gets now that the 2012-2013 mis-pricing of AAPL is behind us.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 20, 2014 8:53:36 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Nov 20, 2014 8:58:00 GMT -8
Two notes last night of interest. IBM. NEW 7 bil. Deal with Lufthansa is an example of where the iPad sales and iPhone sales will increasingly show up in enterprise. Also Lenovo reports slowing smartphone sales in China. No one said it but I suspect iPhone is a major factor here and we will see this in the numbers soon. Last week there was a report that the Royal Air Force is introducing iPads to replace the heavy flight manuals carried by crew on transport aircraft.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 20, 2014 9:48:57 GMT -8
Those who have the brass balls of a bull will be rewarded.
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Post by ericinaustin on Nov 20, 2014 10:30:32 GMT -8
Henry Blodgett on CNBC talking about Uber's Ethics .... sometimes truth is really stranger than fiction. Cheers to the longs !!! Here is video of Blodget talking about how he dealt with the humiliation of being banned from Wall Street for securities fraud . youtu.be/cjiNYMA2hU0It is hard to watch it and not feel some sympathy. The part where he apologizes to his father who has the same name for the embarrassment he caused seemed almost human. Almost. Then at around 1:44 he says "Fortunately, this is only a personal integrity disaster". Just integrity, nothing serious. I don't think that I have seen a more direct admission of a lack of character since the Cramer video where Cramer is talking openly about how to manipulate Apple. Or perhaps everything every published by Michael Blair on SA. I struggle to find a positive side to having people like Blodget in the world, much less in the industry, but I guess there is this...blatant shameless and visible crooks like Blodget are a constant reminder to any investor to question advice and guidance from those who claim to know. I guess it is better to have visible dishonesty than well concealed theft. Other than that, I think he is a swell guy I think you're too tough on Blodget. He messed up. But he paid a big price and tries to be open about it . Part of his error back then was euphoria driven. A lot of people were swept up and few were so publicly hung in the public square.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 20, 2014 10:49:16 GMT -8
I think you're too tough on Blodget. He messed up. But he paid a big price and tries to be open about it . Part of his error back then was euphoria driven. A lot of people were swept up and few were so publicly hung in the public square. Perhaps you haven't read Business Insider, and are not familiar with its business model. And there is a difference between an intentional bad act and an "error" or mistake. I hate when some celebrity or pro athlete does something evil in America and then calls it a "mistake" in a press conference. No, a mistake is when you get on the wrong direction on a freeway onramp. Blodget's acts were willful, not some oversight. I understand the impulse for compassion and empathy when someone is going through a rough time. It's even hard for me to watch Blodget get owned by Matt Lauer. But these are exactly the kind of feelings that a sociopath takes advantage of when he's stealing a little old lady's pension. Instead of taking the straight and narrow course after being banned from the securities industry, and showing some humility and contrition, Blodget founded a troll site, completely devoid of any attempts at truth, whose entire business model is shock and awe for clicks, with complete disregard for the impact on real world investors, and he's just as arrogant as ever. This is not a man that deserves any sympathy. If there was ever a time to muster up that liberal scorn for rich, entitled, evil, white guys, this is it, Eric!
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