Ted
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Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Nov 21, 2014 16:26:19 GMT -8
TGIF and cheers to the Apple-ites! We're up nearly $9 in the last four weeks. Not too shabby! Enjoy yourselves this evening - with some degree of moderation and decorum - please.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 21, 2014 17:05:26 GMT -8
Terrific week. Today was fine in my book, with OE being a minor drag and some rotation out of AAPL to be expected. Profit taking is never a losing proposition..all good.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2014 17:25:52 GMT -8
I actually ended green this week, so it MUST have been a good week for everyone. Congrats to the longs!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2014 17:26:52 GMT -8
TGIF and cheers to the Apple-ites! We're up nearly $9 in the last four weeks. Not too shabby! Enjoy yourselves this evening - with some degree of moderation and decorum - please. Requesting ban from iPad for random act of ralphing Don't worry iPad doesn't really visit anymore anyway Wheeeeee
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 21, 2014 17:37:13 GMT -8
I'm having a tough time wiping the smile off my face from AAPL's performance this week ... great week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 18:08:19 GMT -8
Terrific week. Today was fine in my book, with OE being a minor drag and some rotation out of AAPL to be expected. Profit taking is never a losing proposition..all good. Rotation out of AAPL into WHAT exactly? Seems like there should be rotation into AAPL, given its terrestrial P/E. I'm fine with AAPL this week, in light of those dastardly monthly call walls. FWIW, AAPL took off in late November last year.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 21, 2014 18:15:20 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 21, 2014 19:11:34 GMT -8
Terrific week. Today was fine in my book, with OE being a minor drag and some rotation out of AAPL to be expected. Profit taking is never a losing proposition..all good. Rotation out of AAPL into WHAT exactly? Seems like there should be rotation into AAPL, given its terrestrial P/E. I'm fine with AAPL this week, in light of those dastardly monthly call walls. FWIW, AAPL took off in late November last year. I agree with 2(.5) of 3 points. 1) Eggzactly, Apple should be the flight to safety. Where the hell else you gonna go? 2) Another OpEx Friday that we finished green and pain was vanquished and finished the week with another ATCH. So why the long faces? But 3) While I hope you are right, traditionally October kinda sucks, and we just had a good one, so past performance cannot and does not guarantee future performance. Anyway, for the record, I remain bullish. A lot of you are acting like battered wives, walking on eggshells. I think WS just finally came to its senses and sees some momo to ride for a while. Sure, there will be pullbacks (BTFD) and FUD-induced volatility (BFTD). But does anyone here really think Apple's current state of affairs is analogous to November 2012? Or do you just believe AAPL is controlled by squiggly lines in which case you are a crazy person?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 21, 2014 21:37:24 GMT -8
Here is why I refer to rebalancing as a factor..
Professional portfolio managers have disciplines they work under either by Fund rules or as agreed to with their investment Chiefs .
One such discipline may be : no more than ten percent of the fund in technology stocks and no more than 3% in any one name.( highly simplified but you get the point)
Now, what happens when AAPL goes on a royal tear for a few weeks? It gets to be too big a piece of the pie and rebalancing (rotation) has to take place. Why now? Because Mr. Manager can see he has a front runner and will sell calls against his position to get some premium since he has to sell or give up shares anyway. So monthly OE is often a rebalancing day....and if Mr. manager happened to sell his calls at a strike too high, he sells shares anyway and pockets the premium. This looks really good on the performance for month end.
But after those month end statements get run and his compliance guys stop looking, he may buy AAPL again if he still likes it....like on December 1st...and be out of discipline for a few weeks.
This is a common strategy and has nothing to do with there being "nothing better to rotate to". It's discipline and rules of the House.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 22, 2014 4:51:05 GMT -8
Does anyone know off the top of their head if there is a pattern for the stock price during the month of December?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 22, 2014 5:12:46 GMT -8
Just looking at the charts, it has risen during the last half of the month in every year except 2012.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 22, 2014 6:24:36 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2014 9:39:59 GMT -8
Citi has the worst coverage on AAPL. Maynard Dum has a $95 price target on AAPL. 'Nuff said? This country will begin a real recovery after the government figures out a way to let banks like Citi sink slowly into that giant septic tank known as Chapter 7 bankruptcy.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 22, 2014 10:51:13 GMT -8
Even a cursory glance at a 5-year AAPL chart tells you why averages of Thanksgiving and Christmas are fool's gold: We had a huge run-up going into Jan 2012, and a huge collapse going into Jan 2013. That skews any averages to make them pointless. Now, you can either believe A) OMG, the chart warns us history will repeat itself or 2) Apple's FA position was much different then, by looking at the October 2012 vs October 2014 earnings, so there is no analogy. Raise your hand if you think Apple reports in January '15 like they did in Jan '13. Anybody? Bueller? I will admit to changing my views more in line with Gregg Thurman's paranoid theory that WS knew ahead of time back in 2012.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 22, 2014 12:01:43 GMT -8
Nice catch, artman! Explains a lot.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 22, 2014 12:33:20 GMT -8
Nice catch, artman! Explains a lot. 1st: I emailed IR 2nd: 4 hours later, I called. 4 hours later, I got an email.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 22, 2014 12:37:18 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 22, 2014 20:18:06 GMT -8
Book Discussion on The Innovators Walter Isaacson talked about his book, The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution. He spoke at the 2014 Miami Book Fair International, held on the campus of Miami Dade College on November 22-23. www.c-span.org/video/?322768-5/book-discussion-innovators
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Post by macwire on Nov 23, 2014 7:07:41 GMT -8
Thanksgiving week historically is very low volume and bullish. Reuters reporting China plans another rate cut.
I expect a quietly bullish week before we see some early Dec volatility?
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Post by grannysmith on Nov 23, 2014 10:39:13 GMT -8
I've lurked around on this board for a couple of years and find it useful and illuminating. Quick question on a slow Sunday. I've been searching online for speculation/discussion about Apple pay and how it might effect the viability of micro payments. I'd be interested in thoughts on the subject. A Google search returned this Stanford University site that gives an overview of micro payments and the difficulty they've had gaining traction. cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/2010-11/MicropaymentsAndTheNet/index.htmlI doubt Apple being involved in micro payments would directly affect the bottom line. But perhaps it could increase the usefulness of the devices.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 15:08:20 GMT -8
Here is why I refer to rebalancing as a factor.. Professional portfolio managers have disciplines they work under either by Fund rules or as agreed to with their investment Chiefs . One such discipline may be : no more than ten percent of the fund in technology stocks and no more than 3% in any one name.( highly simplified but you get the point) Now, what happens when AAPL goes on a royal tear for a few weeks? It gets to be too big a piece of the pie and rebalancing (rotation) has to take place. Why now? Because Mr. Manager can see he has a front runner and will sell calls against his position to get some premium since he has to sell or give up shares anyway. So monthly OE is often a rebalancing day....and if Mr. manager happened to sell his calls at a strike too high, he sells shares anyway and pockets the premium. This looks really good on the performance for month end. But after those month end statements get run and his compliance guys stop looking, he may buy AAPL again if he still likes it....like on December 1st...and be out of discipline for a few weeks. This is a common strategy and has nothing to do with there being "nothing better to rotate to". It's discipline and rules of the House. Doesn't this theory suggest the money managers were at the limit on AAPL prior to the run? Institutional ownership is still low, so there should be some flexibility for AAPL to run without the rebalancing you say might be occurring?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 15:18:03 GMT -8
What is the significance of the Dec 14 date on Bloomberg's futures screen, week after week?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 23, 2014 15:29:05 GMT -8
Here is why I refer to rebalancing as a factor.. Professional portfolio managers have disciplines they work under either by Fund rules or as agreed to with their investment Chiefs . One such discipline may be : no more than ten percent of the fund in technology stocks and no more than 3% in any one name.( highly simplified but you get the point) Now, what happens when AAPL goes on a royal tear for a few weeks? It gets to be too big a piece of the pie and rebalancing (rotation) has to take place. Why now? Because Mr. Manager can see he has a front runner and will sell calls against his position to get some premium since he has to sell or give up shares anyway. So monthly OE is often a rebalancing day....and if Mr. manager happened to sell his calls at a strike too high, he sells shares anyway and pockets the premium. This looks really good on the performance for month end. But after those month end statements get run and his compliance guys stop looking, he may buy AAPL again if he still likes it....like on December 1st...and be out of discipline for a few weeks. This is a common strategy and has nothing to do with there being "nothing better to rotate to". It's discipline and rules of the House. Doesn't this theory suggest the money managers were at the limit on AAPL prior to the run? Institutional ownership is still low, so there should be some flexibility for AAPL to run without the rebalancing you say might be occurring? There are thousands of portfolios out there....all kinds of disciplines. Some were underweight AAPL certainly, some were equal weight, some overweighted. For all institutional holdings AAPL was underweight as a share of all institutional holdings. But Presume for sake of argument that 50% of the overweight funds and 10% of the equal weight portfolios had to "lighten up" a bit because of Apple's great run.....you would still get some forced selling. This is not a bad thing...not at all. The underweight funds are buying, and buying more perhaps, than the overweight funds sell, so the stock goes up. It simply explains, with other factors, why the stock may move a bit differently on monthly OE.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 23, 2014 15:30:49 GMT -8
What is the significance of the Dec 14 date on Bloomberg's futures screen, week after week? It's the date you finally pay for lunch
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Post by mace on Nov 23, 2014 15:40:23 GMT -8
What is the significance of the Dec 14 date on Bloomberg's futures screen, week after week? It's the date you finally pay for lunch Shu Qi is in town?
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Post by mace on Nov 23, 2014 15:42:40 GMT -8
Doesn't this theory suggest the money managers were at the limit on AAPL prior to the run? Institutional ownership is still low, so there should be some flexibility for AAPL to run without the rebalancing you say might be occurring? There are thousands of portfolios out there....all kinds of disciplines. Some were underweight AAPL certainly, some were equal weight, some overweighted. For all institutional holdings AAPL was underweight as a share of all institutional holdings. But Presume for sake of argument that 50% of the overweight funds and 10% of the equal weight portfolios had to "lighten up" a bit because of Apple's great run.....you would still get some forced selling. This is not a bad thing...not at all. The underweight funds are buying, and buying more perhaps, than the overweight funds sell, so the stock goes up. It simply explains, with other factors, why the stock may move a bit differently on monthly OE. fortune.com/2014/11/23/how-eight-billionaires-played-apple-last-quarter/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 17:01:26 GMT -8
What is the significance of the Dec 14 date on Bloomberg's futures screen, week after week? It's the date you finally pay for lunch I need AAPL at $140 first. Shu Qi says you went dutch with her. Cheap....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 17:02:55 GMT -8
It's the date you finally pay for lunch Shu Qi is in town? She swore off men after a brief encounter with RedShirt.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2014 17:29:42 GMT -8
What is the significance of the Dec 14 date on Bloomberg's futures screen, week after week? That's the month of the next futures contract expiry, FuEx, if you will. They are quarterly, December, then March, then June, then September, then December again, and so on. So when you see a futures quote, the futures market (not the individual stock markets) is predicting what it thinks where the indexes will be on December 19, not tomorrow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 19:22:34 GMT -8
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