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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 1, 2014 12:47:14 GMT -8
IMO it seems like after a big drop like this, especially after a run up like we've had, the best we can hope for is a 3-4 week period of sideways consolidation, before more up. (Example bouncing between 110-115 until Xmas or so). that can be a good thing for the stock, working off the overbought conditions and setting the stage for another sustainable rally.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 1, 2014 12:49:52 GMT -8
By way of example, look at the beginning of June or beginning of September this year.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 1, 2014 12:51:11 GMT -8
Bought more dip as well. Dec 12 $115 calls.
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Post by mace on Dec 1, 2014 12:54:56 GMT -8
Is the condiment tastes like ketchup or chill sauce?
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Post by rickag on Dec 1, 2014 12:55:38 GMT -8
Filed under hope for the best category: Apple issues revised guidence upppppwaaarrrd for FQ1.
It could happen.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2014 12:55:59 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 1, 2014 13:23:08 GMT -8
Not sure why the "overindexing" on AAPL, though AAPL, so of course. Yeah, I'm confused too, but if you HAVE to try and make some sense of it, maybe Wall Street "forgot" that Black Friday "woes"/any US economic issues (which...haven't fully resolved themselves, last I checked) have much less to do with Apple than other retailers. International sales, iPhone being Sovereign of consumer electronics, etc. Greater China alone will have an incredible impact on Apple's holiday quarter. And AFAIK, iPhone is still backordered, so there's PLENTY of demand worldwide left for Apple to address.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 1, 2014 13:53:50 GMT -8
I am having a brain freeze but who on this Board had a little birdie who said that IBM and AAPL were moving slower than we thought? And can that person please expand on that? So is it a December or a Jan or what timing that his/her birdie thinks they are suppose to share their plan with the masses?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 1, 2014 15:56:05 GMT -8
Since we are all in this together, and sometimes I don't get to the late Weekend posts until the next day, here is my buddy JD's post from late last night: "So yeah, just for the record, if AAPL pulls back to the 117's Monday morning, I'm going in like the 101st Airborne into Normandy." 117! Yeah..... Obviously not what I was looking for, but I BTFD, and then it FD'd more... Today all I was hoping for was the bell to ring, so all the panicky tards could go to sleep, and dream about and wake up remembering Apple is as awesome as it's ever been, which is as awesome any company has ever been. Let's not over-analyze here. Some fucktard on WS must have fat-fingered a trade, because whether he wanted to sell or not, he went about it the wrong way and lost himself or his firm a lot of profits pretty damned quickly. Then the algos and stop losses kicked in. By the time AAPL hit 111, the breaker tripped, and the rest of the day everyone was as skittish and PTSD'd as those passengers on Sully Sullenberger's plane. By Friday, this will (hopefully) just be a bad memory. In my libertarian paradise, firms would be able to chop off said fat fingers.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Dec 1, 2014 16:58:50 GMT -8
Well, today certainly sucked, but it you told me last January (when Apple was at a pre-split equivalent of 71) that we would be at 115 on December 1st, I would have thought you were dreaming. From that perspective, 115 doesn't look so bad
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 1, 2014 17:02:54 GMT -8
What did we earn in fiscal Q1 last year....$2.09 split adjusted? (I think). I'm still seeing a 20% YOY earnings increase this time around without s-t-r-e--t-c-h-I-n-g any product sales estimates at all.....Hmmm. Now I wonder if the March quarter isn't the mother of all surprises....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 1, 2014 17:04:13 GMT -8
JD, in your Libertarian paradise market makers could do shenanigans all day long, as there would be no rules, no regulations, no enforcement. Torches and pitchforks on the floor of the exchange.
Caveat Emptor.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2014 18:08:11 GMT -8
What did we earn in fiscal Q1 last year....$2.09 split adjusted? (I think). I'm still seeing a 20% YOY earnings increase this time around without s-t-r-e--t-c-h-I-n-g any product sales estimates at all.....Hmmm. Now I wonder if the March quarter isn't the mother of all surprises.... Last year, Apple reported $2.07, split adjusted. My WAG is that Apple should do a minimum of 30% YOY EPS increase and potentially 40-45% with 70M+ iPhones sold in the December quarter 2014.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2014 18:10:14 GMT -8
JD, in your Libertarian paradise market makers could do shenanigans all day long, as there would be no rules, no regulations, no enforcement. Torches and pitchforks on the floor of the exchange. Caveat Emptor. Caveat emptor, indeed. I mostly bought shares today. I have no January positions.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 1, 2014 18:28:52 GMT -8
Today really sucked - and not sure what was rumor and what wasn't. MS definitely cut their tech weighting by 1% - and part of their paradigm is to have a model portfolio for all their brokers based on internal recommendations. Would not be surprised if all their retail and private wealth brokers started to trim their AAPL positions and caused a bit of a panic out there. I also read that Vanguard was out there hitting the stock - don't know how true that was. In addition there were 6.1 million shares for sale at 9:51am that took the damn thing down to $111.27. Flash crash? WTF knows. Some idiot put the whole frigging block out there instead of working the order. In return, it set off stops and the rest is history. We all know that it is a vacuum on the way down and slow as shit on the way up. As talking heads began to rationalize what happened they concluded (with their oversized pea brains) that it was just profit taking and that technically we are probably going to have a bit of a pullback. Black Friday came and went - concerns about retail sales being down in the overall market year over year came to fruition - and was another reason given to AAPL's down draft. It was lack of buyers in their products because, after all, retail sales are down for Black Friday, year over year...so that MUST include AAPL products as well, right? Never in my life have I heard more convoluted nonsense and sloppy, sloppy, sloppy trading on that block. It was the perfect storm. I wish I would wake up tomorrow to some good news announced by AAPL - nothing specific - just some new good news or stats or anything that could make the idiots who sold today realize what putzes they truly are.!
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Dec 1, 2014 18:53:20 GMT -8
Condolences to those that got bit by today's shenanigans, and kudos to you dip buyers. I don't agree with the generally gloomy viewpoint of Anthony Wing Kosner in this article, but it does point out the challenge facing WATCH developers. Compared to the iPhone or iPad the device has a large number of UI interfaces. If anyone here has access to WatchKit, or knows someone who has, it would be interesting to hear whether Apple has already attempted to associate input device actions to "typical" uses. Personally, I have faith that there are a lot of smart developers out there who will leverage all of these tools in amazing and unexpected ways, but there could well be a relatively long trial-end-error period.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Dec 1, 2014 19:24:44 GMT -8
Boy, just when you thought that Gene Munster couldn't get any more laughable...possible choppy waters ahead if WATCH is a bust and <wait for it>"it doesn't unveil a smart TV." Oh yeah, the other problem is "supply constraints on the new iPhone 6," because, you know, there's no demand, I guess.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 1, 2014 19:39:26 GMT -8
JD, in your Libertarian paradise market makers could do shenanigans all day long, as there would be no rules, no regulations, no enforcement. Torches and pitchforks on the floor of the exchange. Caveat Emptor. Libertarians are for small government, not no government. Common misconception. As if government is full of highly skilled and honest angels preventing shenanigans! They cause shenanigans! I'd rather just vote assholes off my island, instead of having the assholes buy off their congressman who sits on the Financial Serves Committee that makes the rules. Libertarians aren't suspicious of government because they think man can be trusted. It's exactly the opposite!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 1, 2014 20:22:33 GMT -8
JD, in your Libertarian paradise market makers could do shenanigans all day long, as there would be no rules, no regulations, no enforcement. Torches and pitchforks on the floor of the exchange. Caveat Emptor. Libertarians are for small government, not no government. Common misconception. As if government is full of highly skilled and honest angels preventing shenanigans! They cause shenanigans! I'd rather just vote assholes off my island, instead of having the assholes buy off their congressman who sits on the Financial Serves Committee that makes the rules. Libertarians aren't suspicious of government because they think man can be trusted. It's exactly the opposite! So how much "small government" would be applied to regulating the "free market"? My point stands. And how could you cut off fat fingers again? On to the AAPL rebound, scheduled for tomorrow....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 1, 2014 20:35:04 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 1, 2014 21:30:06 GMT -8
Libertarians are for small government, not no government. Common misconception. As if government is full of highly skilled and honest angels preventing shenanigans! They cause shenanigans! I'd rather just vote assholes off my island, instead of having the assholes buy off their congressman who sits on the Financial Serves Committee that makes the rules. Libertarians aren't suspicious of government because they think man can be trusted. It's exactly the opposite! So how much "small government" would be applied to regulating the "free market"? My point stands. And how could you cut off fat fingers again? I strongly believe that the Lochner Era's regulatory (and tax) paradigm was best for real free market capitalists. Fraud was illegal. America would have NEVER risen to its economic stature in the current regulatory environment. As to your other question, there were virtually no workplace regulations in that era, and therefore employees could sign voluntary agreements to sacrifice any fat finger that added a zero in the wrong place. Aw, the good ol' days. Cheers to the longs.
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