Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 8, 2014 3:49:25 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Well AAPL is RED, trading at 114.74 -0.26 (0.23%) as of 6:34. Does that mean following last week's pattern we close green? Major indices are all RED as well, in fact a little moreso at this early hour. In the news: You know its a slow news weekend, when Mark Zuckerberg's comments about Privacy and Apple are still in the headlines three days later... The most interesting thing I've seen this morning is from InsiderMonkey, Apple Inc. (AAPL) May Be Forced to Re-think iPod Touch As Demand Surges. Of course if you're bored you can always read the BI article, The 10 Business Publications You Should Ignore. There must be a link must be out there somewhere... Have a great day. Let's make money. *** I will be traveling for the next week with limited access to computers. Would someone please start the daily threads? I will be back on Tuesday, December 16.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 8, 2014 6:05:27 GMT -8
UGH. Pre-market looks ugly.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 8, 2014 6:12:36 GMT -8
It does....and for no good reason except that I believe some call buyers got a bit too enthusiastic and Wall Street will move us back a bit. Any December monthly 120 call owners out there? I believe 115 will be the jockeying point for the next week or so. Perhaps a quick test of 112, where buyers should appear with eagerness....BWDIK
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 6:32:35 GMT -8
Ouch!
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 8, 2014 6:32:59 GMT -8
Anyone buying the dip?
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 6:37:25 GMT -8
I may. Wondering if we are starting our regular Google Apple trading divergence...
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 6:57:40 GMT -8
I did.
Few TA things. Feel free to ignore if you don't want to hear it.
Fib retrace meant 10/16 low up to recent high yields first stop (.382) at 110.25. Or so. That has held so far. If it is our "low" from the move up a simple ABCD takes us up to 130 into January.
So far hammering here and holding 12/2 lows...
RSI indicating it has pretty much fully worked off previous overbought status and still holding bullish range.
YMMV
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Post by PikesPique on Dec 8, 2014 7:02:11 GMT -8
Put in some bids to sell 12/20 105 puts and still have a few 12/12 128 covered calls. The 105s were ordered when AAPL was close to the LOD, so probably won't fill. I feel confident the 128s will expire without executing. I'd be happy to be wrong, though.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 8:10:17 GMT -8
It does....and for no good reason except that I believe some call buyers got a bit too enthusiastic and Wall Street will move us back a bit. Any December monthly 120 call owners out there? I believe 115 will be the jockeying point for the next week or so. ^ This. The power of options are back. The weekly call buyers will probably lose, as will AAPL longs (at least short term).
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 8:21:11 GMT -8
20ma failure so far. Come on aapl lol.
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 9:21:44 GMT -8
Stop city. F balls
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Post by Volvocoupe on Dec 8, 2014 9:31:33 GMT -8
Back in the channel. Just though.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 8, 2014 9:35:50 GMT -8
Sold a few hundred shares this AM @ $114.20. Not because I wanted to but needed some cash. Glad I didn't wait until later in the day. :/
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 8, 2014 9:40:57 GMT -8
Man, sometimes I really want to stab the market. Whoever calls the bottom of this dip and jumps in is going to make some $$.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Dec 8, 2014 10:03:24 GMT -8
I have been doing a little work over the past two years to model the dynamics of stock behavior. One of my earlier models used the current price and the perceived value as well as the number of buyers and sellers as inputs. It was a simple model where the difference between the perceived value V and the actual price P changed the number of buyers and sellers. The number of buyers and sellers in turn influenced the movement of P towards V. I was curious to see how the model would respond to a single change in P. For example, imagine the stock is at 100 and there are 1000 buyers (B) and 1000 sellers (S). Everything is in balance. Then we get a one time spike where V, the perceived value goes to 150 and immediately back to 100. The number of buyers changes according to (V-P)/((V+P). The number of sellers change according the the inverse. The new price P is then calculated as the old price times (B-S)/(B+S), Thus as the number of buyers goes up, the price P approaches the value V. Very simple, but we have to start somewhere. I was surprised to see that even this onetime spike was sufficient to set off an oscillation in the price as the balance of buyers and sellers changed. It was also interesting that the peak of the oscillation exceeded the 150 perceived value. I am mentioning this now because last Monday's spike down was very similar to my simple test case. If this simple model is valid, we should see the stock overshoot the 112.57 on the downside before turning around. Of course, the effects of people acting on other trading theories like Fibs or what have you would influence this behavior. I just thought it was interesting that a spike would set off oscillations rather than just return to the baseline P.S. When I started typing this, we were above 113. I didn't expect it to be validated so quickly
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 10:34:13 GMT -8
The call walls loom large. Be careful. I don't begrudge anyone from dumping and kissing this crooked POS of a stock market goodbye forever.
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 10:54:48 GMT -8
Hourly RSI is at extremes.
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Post by moltenfire on Dec 8, 2014 11:08:05 GMT -8
It's Monday, and only the second week of the month so the monthly OpEx doesn't happen until next Friday. IMHO the drop is not likely the effect of options pain. For what it's worth, TSLA is down 4.6%, MSFT is down 1.8% too.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 8, 2014 11:08:51 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2014 11:33:45 GMT -8
Scenario would be probably market related rather then apple specific.
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Post by mace on Dec 8, 2014 12:14:58 GMT -8
Tech and oil stocks tumbles. Consumer staples and utilities roars. Not sure of other sectors, didn't follow them.
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Post by mace on Dec 8, 2014 12:25:27 GMT -8
Mav,
I have identified you as the man to ask question about H&S and inverse H&S.
Any possibility of an inverted H&S in the 1-min timeframe? $111.62 as head, and neckline is $112.65-70.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 12:49:18 GMT -8
It's Monday, and only the second week of the month so the monthly OpEx doesn't happen until next Friday. IMHO the drop is not likely the effect of options pain. For what it's worth, TSLA is down 4.6%, MSFT is down 1.8% too. Overall market is influencing AAPL but options may as well -- if the 115s are seen as a ceiling, limiting AAPL's perceived upside, buyers probably aren't in any hurry to step in here. No one knows, but it's totally F'd up the market thinks better of Microsh*t than Apple, Inc.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Dec 8, 2014 13:15:33 GMT -8
When you feel yourself getting frustrated: pause, multiply by 7, relax. It hasn't been a bad year.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 8, 2014 13:22:23 GMT -8
When you feel yourself getting frustrated: pause, multiply by 7, relax. It hasn't been a bad year. Not sure -18.20 sounds better... JD would you please start BTFDs so we don't go any lower.
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Post by mace on Dec 8, 2014 14:08:37 GMT -8
When you feel yourself getting frustrated: pause, multiply by 7, relax. It hasn't been a bad year. Not sure -18.20 sounds better... JD would you please start BTFDs so we don't go any lower. How bloody do you want his hands to get?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 8, 2014 14:26:08 GMT -8
Geez Mace ... just how bearish are you right here?!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 8, 2014 14:30:29 GMT -8
When you feel yourself getting frustrated: pause, multiply by 7, relax. It hasn't been a bad year. Not sure -18.20 sounds better... JD would you please start BTFDs so we don't go any lower. I already did, which is why I am very cranky today (lost sleep and my blood is in the streets). We need - and should get - another knock-the-cover-off-the-baseball earnings release next month. Of course, fuckmooks like Andy Hargraves will just say "but but it can't last forever" horseshit anyway. I wish I had a lion so I could feed analysts to him. Can CSI guys take DNA from lion poo?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 15:33:42 GMT -8
I think I'm going to ask Tim to split AAPL another 7 ways...
JD, what have you got against Lions?
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Post by mace on Dec 8, 2014 15:51:54 GMT -8
Geez Mace ... just how bearish are you right here?! Blogsphere is full of guys talking about going to $110. Would be very afraid if below $109.
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