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Post by stkstalker on Oct 8, 2012 21:31:47 GMT -8
Don't blame me if the market crashes! China is green, Japan and Australia are red. US futures are slightly green atm. Meanwhile, our favorite fruit company looks for support. And we are less than two days from the rumored event. Good trading, all! Edited for spelling
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 8, 2012 21:41:52 GMT -8
Two days from the rumored event invite. Not quite the same... and I think in this case, the hype of an invite is better than the actual event. Which somebody, somewhere, will always declare was "disappointing".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 22:00:40 GMT -8
Event prediction:
8" iPad introduced for $299.
Half of press say its good but not cheap enough to compete with cheaper androids/kindles. FUD
Other half of press say the device is good but will eat into sales of larger iPad, and margins will drop. FUD
3 months later apple reports massive holiday quarter, with great margins, due to the massive popularity of the 8" iPad which outsold every competing product combined, and also reports continued strong sales of the 10" iPad.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 8, 2012 22:11:40 GMT -8
Pain range is 635-649.99. 640 and 645 are essentially tied, so I'll call it 635-639.99.
Unfortunately, we appear to be in Bad Sentiment Mode™. Perhaps that will lead to some put buying, unlike last week, and give us some help.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 22:17:28 GMT -8
Two days from the rumored event invite. Not quite the same... and I think in this case, they hype of an invite is better than the actual event. Which somebody, somewhere, will always declare was "disappointing". Here's the thing. If the invite is that close, there would've been a solid rumor about it by now. Sorry, that rumor from an investor who heard something lacks the same cred as iMore, WSJ, NYT, etc. That's why Dalrymple has been silent (though we all know the iPad mini/Air is on the way thanks to to his all-but-yep).
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 8, 2012 22:21:17 GMT -8
Event prediction: 8" iPad introduced for $299. Half of press say its good but not cheap enough to compete with cheaper androids/kindles. FUD Other half of press say the device is good but will eat into sales of larger iPad, and margins will drop. FUD 3 months later apple reports massive holiday quarter, with great margins, due to the massive popularity of the 8" iPad which outsold every competing product combined, and also reports continued strong sales of the 10" iPad. I like all those predictions. However, I'm leaning towards Apple introducing the iPad Mini at $249, not $299. Why? Because this will kneecap the competition, and it will be the 16Gb, no-frills, WiFi-only model. You want the high-end 32Gb? That'll be $350. You want it with 3G? That'll be $480 please. But wait, you say. Once you're at $480, won't people go with the full iPad instead? Well, some people actually WANT a smaller form factor. And they're willing to pay for it. Price is just a part of the equation. And, yes I agree, some people might be swayed to just go full out and get the new iPad... but then you're back to WiFi only and 16Gb... hmmm. Maybe upgrade RAM a little? And maybe add 4G? AppleCare even? And for those who still want just a basic, cheap 8" tablet? It's only $249. At a retail price of $249, assuming it costs Apple around $170 to make them, they'll still net around $80 per device. Not much compared to what they get from iPad, but that 3G (LTE?) modem and additional RAM will be the profit makers. I'm anticipating the ASP of iPad Mini will be around $350, which means that the product line, as a whole, will average $150 in profit per device. Percentage wise, that's even better than what they currently get for iPad. So, is this potentially a MORE profitable product? We might see profit margins increase! I can't wait for the January earnings announcement
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 22:23:19 GMT -8
Futures look at least a _little_ hopeful, which is good. As for AAPL, who knows. Maybe 636 (intraday low) will hold? Honestly, seems like people are waiting for the SMA-100 which is drifting over 620. Why not get that crap over with and Power Bounce™ off that level.
I'm very light on AAPL options these days. I'm actually long AMZN (Nov 12 BCS) going into Tuesday open for crying out loud. No, I don't know what possessed me to do that either.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 22:26:28 GMT -8
Event prediction: 8" iPad introduced for $299. Half of press say its good but not cheap enough to compete with cheaper androids/kindles. FUD Other half of press say the device is good but will eat into sales of larger iPad, and margins will drop. FUD 3 months later apple reports massive holiday quarter, with great margins, due to the massive popularity of the 8" iPad which outsold every competing product combined, and also reports continued strong sales of the 10" iPad. I like all those predictions. However, I'm leaning towards Apple introducing the iPad Mini at $249, not $299. Why? Because this will kneecap the competition, and it will be the 16Gb, no-frills, WiFi-only model. You want the high-end 32Gb? That'll be $350. You want it with 3G? That'll be $480 please. But wait, you say. Once you're at $480, won't people go with the full iPad instead? Well, some people actually WANT a smaller form factor. And they're willing to pay for it. Price is just a part of the equation. And, yes I agree, some people might be swayed to just go full out and get the new iPad... but then you're back to WiFi only and 16Gb... hmmm. Maybe upgrade RAM a little? And maybe add 4G? AppleCare even? And for those who still want just a basic, cheap 8" tablet? It's only $249. At a retail price of $249, assuming it costs Apple around $170 to make them, they'll still net around $80 per device. Not much compared to what they get from iPad, but that 3G (LTE?) modem and additional RAM will be the profit makers. I'm anticipating the ASP of iPad Mini will be around $350, which means that the product line, as a whole, will average $150 in profit per device. Percentage wise, that's even better than what they currently get for iPad. So, is this potentially a MORE profitable product? We might see profit margins increase! I can't wait for the January earnings announcement I'm a fan of broken records: $0..........................$400.........................$849 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Entire iPhone lineup ($0-849) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >>>>>>xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx iPad 2 ($399-529) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >>>>>>>>>>>>> new iPad ($499-829) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >>>>xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx iPod touch ($299-$399) iPad mini can pretty much price wherever it wants, I think. Just as long as it starts around $349 or lower.
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 9, 2012 0:31:09 GMT -8
Well, it's looking ugly. 630 and change in PM. Is this finally, really, capitulation?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 9, 2012 0:35:05 GMT -8
Here's the thing. If the invite is that close, there would've been a solid rumor about it by now. Sorry, that rumor from an investor who heard something lacks the same cred as iMore, WSJ, NYT, etc. That's why Dalrymple has been silent (though we all know the iPad mini/Air is on the way thanks to to his all-but-yep). Or, he's under a strict NDA and is honoring it. PLEASE, everyone, stop substituting your genius OPINIONS for other's REPORTAGE.
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Post by petertje on Oct 9, 2012 2:02:44 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 2:10:21 GMT -8
Ever get the feeling that a few folk have it in for AAPL? The 1% gap down was a bit of a giveaway this morning. No news, just a lot of FUD and lies from last week about a strike at Foxconn that has been categorically denied. Lots of crap about poor yields etc.
For me there was a bit of a tell on Friday when AAPL started to bounce to 660 and got whacked. The volume of activity at that strike should have led to a pin around there, but instead AAPL got slammed so that it would close below the mythical 50 DMA, which would guarantee automatic selling at the open yesterday. I had thought this would be a bear trap as those sellers handed off their shares to funds that would then ramp AAPL higher.
It almost looked like we would get that move up in the final hour, but once again, it got whacked. Then a 1% lower opening print ahead of an event invitation supposedly going out either today or tomorrow. Seems fishy to me. Squeeze out as many longs as possible, get the shorts to pile on and then kick off an unrelenting run right up to 710-715 just prior to earnings.
Notice the absence of Apple cheerleaders in the analyst community that quite happily upgrade AAPL when the stock is going up yet remain absolutely silent when it doesn't. Those weasels will come out as soon as AAPL is back over 675, but it's not likely you'll hear anyone other than the usual bulls like Munster at this level.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 2:53:35 GMT -8
Got up at 4 a.m.(EST) to go to the bathroom -- looked at AAPL - was down more than 6 pts. -- looked at volume 1,200 shares.
I dare anyone to say that there is no manipulation.
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Post by mtjs on Oct 9, 2012 3:13:37 GMT -8
Got up at 4 a.m.(EST) to go to the bathroom -- looked at AAPL - was down more than 6 pts. -- looked at volume 1,200 shares. I dare anyone to say that there is no manipulation. There is no manipulation. Look at the broader market and you'll see. Then again some would say that the whole market is built on all kinds of manipulation. We must be so glad that we are non-algorithmic random processing beings that change thought and feelings more often then any processor can think '1? 0?'. We, humans are the basis of the market and them, machines are trying to understand us. While most of the time we don't understand ourselves we did build those machines figuring us out. So... go figure!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 3:19:36 GMT -8
Birdie!!! So glad you found your way here!!! IMHO, daily SMA-100 = magnet
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 9, 2012 3:23:15 GMT -8
Is it just me, or does the news on Apple seem more positive this morning? Looking at the Yahoo News for AAPL, I see that most of the news items have a positive spin on Apple.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 9, 2012 3:55:32 GMT -8
IMHO, daily SMA-100 = magnet Morning all. what do u mean by magnet. More buyers or more downward pressure ?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 3:58:48 GMT -8
Got up at 4 a.m.(EST) to go to the bathroom -- looked at AAPL - was down more than 6 pts. -- looked at volume 1,200 shares. I dare anyone to say that there is no manipulation. There is no manipulation. Look at the broader market and you'll see. Then again some would say that the whole market is built on all kinds of manipulation. We must be so glad that we are non-algorithmic random processing beings that change thought and feelings more often then any processor can think '1? 0?'. We, humans are the basis of the market and them, machines are trying to understand us. While most of the time we don't understand ourselves we did build those machines figuring us out. So... go figure! You are completely mistaken and I have watched first hand in my career as hedge funds would put orders in pre-market to enhance their shorts and frighten retail into selling. I agree that not all is manipulated but don't be naive that there is no manipulation since I am NOT speculating on this - I watched and experienced it for many years.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 9, 2012 4:05:49 GMT -8
IMHO, daily SMA-100 = magnet Morning all. what do u mean by magnet. More buyers or more downward pressure ? I think she means that the price will drift to the 100day MA. At least that's what I think. I also think that a lot of buyers are waiting for that to happen.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 4:08:49 GMT -8
Birdie!!! So glad you found your way here!!! Thought I would swing by and gauge the general sentiment. While the 100 DMA may be a magnet now, I don't believe it was on Friday. Only push down for a close below the 50 DMA made people start looking at the next obvious support level. While AAPL is very much traded off technicals, it's quite easy to see when a big thumb goes on the scales in order to tilt things in someone's favour, then technical traders are left to trade off that modified situation. Friday was a clear case of someone banging the close.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 4:09:52 GMT -8
Nomura initiates $AAPL neutral w/ $710 PT - leaving himself plenty of room to upgrade in a few weeks once it gets momo back - gotta love the sell side analysts. Oh and it gets better - they think AAPL goes to single digit growth in 2014 I think we hit bottom - the insane calls are coming out now.
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Post by roni on Oct 9, 2012 4:12:55 GMT -8
Birdie!!! So glad you found your way here!!! IMHO, daily SMA-100 = magnet Getting closer every day
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 9, 2012 4:20:21 GMT -8
Birdie!!! So glad you found your way here!!! Thought I would swing by and gauge the general sentiment. Good to see you, Big Bird! Loved seeing you on SNL too. Totally understand if you can't stay long in any one place, since you're living like Salman Rushdie threatened by the mullah's fatwa. "One does not simply fire Big Bird" indeed!
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Post by rob_london on Oct 9, 2012 4:36:45 GMT -8
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Post by Rupert on Oct 9, 2012 4:46:11 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Tuesday 10/09/2012
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 9, 2012 4:46:25 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Oct 9, 2012 4:46:45 GMT -8
I am not worried in the least bit. I was worried back in April, May, June, July because of inexperience. At the end of the day, I ask myself just one thing: are the fundamentals of this company going to continue to improve? That's a yes. As someone with the bulk of my portfolio in commons and an April spread, that's all I have to think about.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 4:52:47 GMT -8
IMHO, daily SMA-100 = magnet Morning all. what do u mean by magnet. More buyers or more downward pressure ? Buyers holding out for lower prices. Get the keys to warm up the truck...
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 4:53:54 GMT -8
I am not worried in the least bit. I was worried back in April, May, June, July because of inexperience. At the end of the day, I ask myself just one thing: are the fundamentals of this company going to continue to improve? That's a yes. As someone with the bulk of my portfolio in commons and an April spread, that's all I have to think about. IMHO, you have your head -- and portfolio -- in exactly the right place!! The bulk of my stuff is always longer-term, but back in April, I had too much allocated to MAY'12 and JUL'12, most of which went belly up...but I managed to whittle cost basis (through trading), so nowhere near as bad as it could have been. Still, a test I keep flunking and having to retake: avoid front-month options.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 5:17:57 GMT -8
I am guessing that most of you saw this - if not here it is...some of our pals are on it:http://tinyurl.com/8el99uq
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