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Post by rickag on Oct 9, 2012 11:01:42 GMT -8
My bid for Jan 13 665/680 filled at $5.01 when Apple was around $624 - $625. I meant to lower the bid to $4.96 but shut down my laptop thinking I had time to start it back up before AAPL dipped. What a surprise when I got back into my account. Just checked the transaction history and maybe I should shut my laptop down more often. The short was sold when AAPL was at $624 and the long was bought when AAPL was @ $623.94. Missed the bottom this morning by about 45¢. If I had lowered my bid, no sale. Sometimes dumb luck does befall the ignorant. ;D
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 11:04:42 GMT -8
That was the second try to get thru 638 which was rejected. Here comes another one. And we had 4 shots at trying to get thru 640, all rejected. This is like a siege of a castle, where the invaders send waves of troops but keep getting repelled by the hot oil and archers from the top of the tower.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 9, 2012 11:13:40 GMT -8
Kass has been telling us not to buy AAPL since it was in the $30 range. Don't know how he stays in business, except that there's a sucker born every minute. I suspect he swings both ways, just only vocal on the way down. That's because on the way up his foot is in his mouth. By the way, the new AFB is SO much better because of the mobile app when I have to access it via my phone or iPad.
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Post by prazan on Oct 9, 2012 11:15:20 GMT -8
On the hourly chart, MACD crossed into the positive for the first time since crossing negative on the 5th. We'll see if we can stay positive.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 9, 2012 11:17:09 GMT -8
My bid for Jan 13 665/680 filled at $5.01 when Apple was around $624 - $625. I meant to lower the bid to $4.96 but shut down my laptop thinking I had time to start it back up before AAPL dipped. What a surprise when I got back into my account. Just checked the transaction history and maybe I should shut my laptop down more often. The short was sold when AAPL was at $624 and the long was bought when AAPL was @ $623.94. Missed the bottom this morning by about 45¢. If I had lowered my bid, no sale. Sometimes dumb luck does befall the ignorant. ;D Well, DH Lawrence said, "I'd rather be born lucky than rich." Congrats, Today you are both!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 11:29:54 GMT -8
Well, that was nice while it lasted.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 11:31:20 GMT -8
OK, let's see what we do in the last hour... When the "Pros" do their trading. Right now, these guys have tanked it down to 633.70. Crooks. Let's see if we can hold the 630's, at least.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 11:32:33 GMT -8
See indices. This is broad market action.
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Post by prazan on Oct 9, 2012 11:35:57 GMT -8
I was hoping we'd maintain momentum through the final hour, and sold shares that I'd purchased at 628 when it became clear we wouldn't. Perhaps we'll retest lows tomorrow, securing the bottom.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 11:38:27 GMT -8
Again - you can line up Maria Bartiromo interviewing a technician who said the top for AAPL is in and the easy money is gone now. The story has come to an end. I watched the stock just rollover when they played the segment. Now they are having Keith McCullough on at 5:00 on Fast Money as Doug Kass's disciple. It is all FUD - I KNOW IT - but it affects the price.
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Post by erictheoracle on Oct 9, 2012 11:39:56 GMT -8
I have it in for this market. Until I understand how we resolve sovereign debt issues in the Eurozone and America or unless Romney wins the election, a thing that is estimated (estimated, mind you) to be able to counter-act the fiscal cliff even if Romney does nothing because stating an intent to do something effects markets to a greater degree than actually doing something. Behavioral investing is sometimes counter-intuitive. I'll now go back to channeling Mr. Market. Sell, sell, sell! Turn those machines back on and sell! www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8H2FIf1oH4
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Post by prazan on Oct 9, 2012 11:46:52 GMT -8
Again - you can line up Maria Bartiromo interviewing a technician who said the top for AAPL is in and the easy money is gone now. The story has come to an end. I watched the stock just rollover when they played the segment. Now they are having Keith McCullough on at 5:00 on Fast Money as Doug Kass's disciple. It is all FUD - I KNOW IT - but it affects the price. Phoebes, I worry about your blood pressure. Why not tune into a Skype trading group instead of CNBC?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 11:51:57 GMT -8
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Post by PikesPique on Oct 9, 2012 11:56:19 GMT -8
That's from BGR, a not very reliable source. Neither is Macotakara.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 9, 2012 11:57:23 GMT -8
My thought is that a case maker just jumped the gun and blew some coin on some cases that are not to the right specs. What else should I be thinking?
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Post by Lstream on Oct 9, 2012 11:57:29 GMT -8
None at all. Just another Internet clown drawing eyeballs to his page, with zero facts or credibility. If I was to comment, I would tell you that he is likely full of crap. No one goes that far into production, and makes a change of that type so late in the game.
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Post by ccs on Oct 9, 2012 12:00:47 GMT -8
None at all. Just another Internet clown drawing eyeballs to his page, with zero facts or credibility. If I was to comment, I would tell you that he is likely full of crap. No one goes that far into production, and makes a change of that type so late in the game. +1
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Post by Lstream on Oct 9, 2012 12:03:44 GMT -8
Again - you can line up Maria Bartiromo interviewing a technician who said the top for AAPL is in and the easy money is gone now. The story has come to an end. I watched the stock just rollover when they played the segment. Now they are having Keith McCullough on at 5:00 on Fast Money as Doug Kass's disciple. It is all FUD - I KNOW IT - but it affects the price. Phoebes, I worry about your blood pressure. Why not tune into a Skype trading group instead of CNBC? +1. At least if you insist on watching this gong show, maybe you should try and monetize it. Create a new technical indicator that quantifies CNBC FUD intensity plotted against time. Some of us might figure out how to use that indicator in our trades.
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Post by PikesPique on Oct 9, 2012 12:04:22 GMT -8
....but it looks like you guys have done a great job of staying away from politics. Hopefully that can continue I believe politics are relegated to "The Dungeon" threads.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 9, 2012 12:06:01 GMT -8
While I missed the low, and bought when AAPL was in the green today, I picked up a decent sized chunk of Jan '14 650-700's for $20. If they max out that would be a 150% gain, or around a 105% annualized rate.
I think $730 is pretty darn conservative for Jan'14 expiration, but a 650-710 or 650-720 would only give a max gain of 155% and 160% respectively.
I have a few other Jan '14 positions, including some 690-730's bought last Friday, and others all the way down to some 380-450's bought last December. But today's movement likely was a great time to buy, with the RSI getting down to under 35 and nearly touching the 100 DMA, both fairly rare events over the last 3 years.
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Post by johng on Oct 9, 2012 12:08:24 GMT -8
I was hoping we'd maintain momentum through the final hour, and sold shares that I'd purchased at 628 when it became clear we wouldn't. Perhaps we'll retest lows tomorrow, securing the bottom. I like your thinking on that trade. Good luck to you! JohnG
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 9, 2012 12:09:50 GMT -8
Hard for an Apple investor to not love Andy Zaky!! "People just love to make shit up as they go along..."? Couldn't have said it better. bullishcross.com/2012/10/why-doug-kass-continues-to-show-his-ignorance-of-the-iphone/#commentsWhy Doug Kass continues to show his ignorance of the iPhone Last week we made a case for why Doug Kass — the founder of Seabreeze Partners and writer at TheStreet.com — continues to make fool out of himself by trying to call the top in Apple. We demonstrated how Doug Kass has been bearish on Apple since the stock was trading under $100 a share back in 2007, and how he has continued to fail in this area by prematurely calling one top after another on the company. He has more or less insisted that investors stay away from Apple since the launch of the iPhone. See “Apple $1000: Why Doug Kass will miss the next 50% move” Well today, Doug Kass continues to demonstrate his blatant lack of knowledge of Apple when he argued on CNBC’s Fast Money that the iPhone is losing ground against its competitors. If Doug Kass spent 5 minutes actually analyzing the smartphone market he would know that the EXACT opposite was the case. Apple has not been losing ground against its competitors as Kass suggests. No. According to IDC, Gartner and an analysis of earnings releases by players within smartphone space, Apple has been steadily gaining market share within the smart phone market on a continuing basis. The iPhone is making up and continues to make up an increasingly higher proportion of the total number of smart phones sold in any given quarter. Especially in the quarters that immediately follow Apple’s upgrade cycle. In fact, in Calendar Q1 2012, Apple’s share of the smartphone market hit an all-time high of 24.22%. That means that 1 in every 4 smart phones sold on the planet was an iPhone. That was much higher than the peak 19.06% we saw with the iPhone 4 or the 17% peak we saw with the iPhone 3GS. As the chart below clearly shows, Apple has been steadily gaining share of the smartphone market. That means as a matter of fact, Apple has been gaining on its competitors. Not losing ground as Doug Kass suggested on CNBC’s Fast Money. The problem with the investing world these days is that no one does any research anymore. People just love to make shit up as they go along because it is easier to make up facts when the actual facts don’t tilt in your favor. Doug Kass continues to make a fool out of himself. I wonder when he will stop.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 9, 2012 12:10:53 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Oct 9, 2012 12:12:04 GMT -8
Can we agree to put Obama and Romney discussions into their own thread somewhere?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 12:12:08 GMT -8
First of all - thank you so much for the responses on the mini iPad potential delay. I wasn't familiar with the site but after reading your comments it gives me comfort. Second - I always watch CNBC - they have lots of people come on as strategists or CEOs that I knew from a previous life and I enjoy seeing what they are up to. Thirdly - my blood pressure is completely under control - no worries. Lastly, my frustration is for not having either hedged better or seen the top (for now) and giving back some of my gains. That said, I am way, way up....but I think you know what I mean...I just HATE to give any back so it's more frustration or anger at myself.
But most importantly - the people on this Board keep me sane and you are my reality check. Someday I will absolutely try the skype group - appreciate the invite.
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Post by rickag on Oct 9, 2012 12:13:31 GMT -8
Just checked the transaction history and maybe I should shut my laptop down more often. The short was sold when AAPL was at $624 and the long was bought when AAPL was @ $623.94. Missed the bottom this morning by about 45¢. If I had lowered my bid, no sale. Sometimes dumb luck does befall the ignorant. ;D Well, DH Lawrence said, "I'd rather be born lucky than rich." Congrats, Today you are both! LOL. Thanks, but Rich in name only(see my username), I only bought 2 to average down my cost from $6.92 to $6.00 for the 4 I now own. edit corrected the cost basis, sucks to be getting old and doddering.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 12:19:52 GMT -8
[ We, humans are the basis of the market and them, machines are trying to understand us. If I may restate the above: We humans ARE the market. When the "Market" (the collective we) doesn't respond to our (AFB whatever) logic we attribute it to a conspiracy, when in fact it is nothing more than the more knowledgeable making moves the less knowledgeable don't understand. Price action is not linear. Case in point: there are only a finite number of shares outstanding. When they are all sold, there is no more money to be made by the investors until someone sells. With a stock like AAPL it doesn't take much volume to make a killing, soooo, at the peak of a run, the early buyers sell a portion of their holdings, overloading the remaining buyers (causing the price to go down) until the supply of sellers wanes. At that time, the sellers that ended the bull run, starting the sell off, jump back in, picking up the shares that they had previously sold FOR LESS. Real investing is about long term appreciation, AND short term cash flow. Where we have been missing the boat is by focusing on one aspect, while ignoring the other. This is what I am seeing by studying trading action post ATHs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 12:51:20 GMT -8
Earnings season has begun, with Alcoa & Yum brands both reporting better than expected earnings.
On another note, I'm happy to see how fast the brouhaha over iOS Maps has died. I haven't seen any mention anywhere mainstream in at least a week it seems. The only thing I remember seeing was a positive story on tech sites about improvements that apple has already started making to maps and 3d imagery.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 13:10:05 GMT -8
Anyone care to comment on Oct 12 call/put max pain points?
There's a crapload of puts all the way from 600-670, above 670 they drop off considerably.
Calls, there are large amounts at 650, 670 & peaking at 700.
Based on that, and with no experience whatsoever with this sort of thing, I'm thinking we end up somewhere between $650-$670 at expiry next Friday.
Someone want to take the reigns and make a more experienced guesstimate?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 9, 2012 13:20:47 GMT -8
Gene Munster and the teenagers....guess what? They love Apple...big time www.macrumors.com/2012/10/09/iphone-usage-among-u-s-teens-hits-40-as-ipad-continues-to-gain-traction/Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster today released a report outlining the results of his semi-annual survey of U.S. teenagers, revealing that iPhone and iPad usage continues to surge among the demographic. The survey of over 7,700 teenagers shows that 40% of respondents currently use an iPhone, up from 34% in the last survey conducted just six months ago. We believe it is a positive sign for the power of the iPhone among younger users that Apple was able to expand its market share with teens despite no new product launches between our Spring and Fall 2012 surveys. Apple also appears well-positioned with teenagers going forward, with 62% of survey respondents stating that they plan to obtain an iPhone as their next phone. On the topic of tablets, Munster found that 44% of teenagers now have a tablet device of some sort, with 72% of those using an iPad. Roughly 35% of survey respondents who do not yet have a tablet (20% of total respondents) are planning to obtain one in the next six months. Of those, 74% are planning to purchase an iPad. Apple's rumored "iPad mini" also appears to be a strong potential draw for teenagers, with 43% of those planning to purchase a tablet reporting that they would be more likely to do so if Apple launched a smaller iPad priced at $299. Munster notes that attracting young users is a key part of Apple's strategy, as moving them into the Apple ecosystem at a young age helps lock them in for the future. The iPod touch has long been seen as a gateway device to attract younger users into the Apple ecosystem, but with the iPhone and iPad gaining in usage among these young users as smartphone and tablet prevalence continue to grow in general, many are moving into Apple's higher-priced devices at younger and younger ages.
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