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Post by Big Al on Oct 9, 2012 2:20:07 GMT -8
Well, I think that at least as important as Q4 earnings will be Q1 guidance by Apple.
So let's start a discussion on what we expect Q1 to be (I know, it is very early), and what we would expect AAPL to guide.
Based on my current calculations my Q1 EPS stands at $16.76. Applying the sandbagging factor of Apple from Q1 2012 I get to an EPS guidance of $11.24. However, I am not sure in how far this factor might still be valid.
The analysts' average estimate is currently at $15.43.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 7:30:50 GMT -8
WOW, AL, I am usually conservative, but you have me beat for sure. I would say that if Apple guides to $11 we will be taken to the woodshed. That would be a significant drop from last years actual number (13.87) and I do not believe WS would react kindly. I would pass out I think. IMO Apple has to come in over $13 to get a favorable reception.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 9, 2012 10:53:33 GMT -8
My early estimate including iPad Mini is EPS for 19-19.50. Guidance = $ 11.50 ?
Without iPad Mini, subtract $ 1.
Caveat: This estimate is based on crude projections. ASP and margins therein are definitely as haphazard as my sock drawer.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 10, 2012 7:35:54 GMT -8
WOW, AL, I am usually conservative, but you have me beat for sure. I would say that if Apple guides to $11 we will be taken to the woodshed. That would be a significant drop from last years actual number (13.87) and I do not believe WS would react kindly. I would pass out I think. IMO Apple has to come in over $13 to get a favorable reception. Well, I was burned last earnings so I am tending to be a little more conservative this time around. The big question for me is how many iPhones can Apple produce in a quarter? I know the CapEx analysis by Horace Dediu, but somehow I don't think that Apple could sell more than 50 million iPhones in Q1 2013. Imagine? Yes. Hope? Hell, ya. The demand is there, but what about the supply?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 10, 2012 7:43:15 GMT -8
The thing that needs to be realized is that the 50 million number is all iphones, not just the 5. I can see the 5 representing about 35-36 of the 50. Apple worked through a holiday, they would not do that if the demand was not high. As long as demand is high, TC will take care of everything else.
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Post by roni on Oct 10, 2012 16:19:04 GMT -8
I think the iPhone 5 number will be higher than 35-36 million, but the overall number may not be over 50 million
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 13:24:47 GMT -8
If Peter Oppenheimer's internal EPS numbers are over $ 20, EPS guidance will be over $ 13.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 13:53:28 GMT -8
If Peter Oppenheimer's internal EPS numbers are over $ 20, EPS guidance will be over $ 13. You had to go there didn't you.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 14:18:28 GMT -8
Huh?
I think Oppenheimer is moving towards closer-to-the-mark guidance than he used to. I bet a $20 EPS target for Apple is announced as $15-16 guidance, for example.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 17, 2012 20:31:06 GMT -8
The thing that needs to be realized is that the 50 million number is all iphones, not just the 5. I can see the 5 representing about 35-36 of the 50. Apple worked through a holiday, they would not do that if the demand was not high. As long as demand is high, TC will take care of everything else. Until iPhone is on all 250+ of its carriers apple can crank production as high as it wants and still not meet demand. They don't do that though because demand will eventually slow. Anyone worried about demand at this point is blind. Even with 100 countries by December has a ton of unmet demand around the world. And if they continue to add carriers that "problem" will persist for even longer.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 19, 2012 0:29:25 GMT -8
Well, I think that at least as important as Q4 earnings will be Q1 guidance by Apple. So let's start a discussion on what we expect Q1 to be (I know, it is very early), and what we would expect AAPL to guide. Based on my current calculations my Q1 EPS stands at $16.76. Applying the sandbagging factor of Apple from Q1 2012 I get to an EPS guidance of $11.24. However, I am not sure in how far this factor might still be valid. The analysts' average estimate is currently at $15.43. Updated my Q1 2013 numbers: EPS: $17.26 Rev: $55,565 Mil. So guidance (with the same sandbagging factor from last Q1) would be $11.58.
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 19, 2012 5:03:43 GMT -8
Last years Q1 actual was $13.87. They will guide at least flat, and possibly up slightly, from last years actual. In my opinion there is no way they could guide $3 lower than last years actual without causing serious damage to the stock price.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 5:57:02 GMT -8
Last years Q1 actual was $13.87. They will guide at least flat, and possibly up slightly, from last years actual. In my opinion there is no way they could guide $3 lower than last years actual without causing serious damage to the stock price. Do not count on Apple guiding higher. last qtr Apple guided lower than the previous years results if I am not mistaken. I definitely agree that if they guide to $11 we will get creamed. I thought last Q1 was criminal with the 9.30 guide and 13.87 results. If Apple guided 11 and came in at 18-19 , I would expect lawsuits. WS is looking for 15, anything less than 13.xx will be just another insult.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 19, 2012 6:00:13 GMT -8
Last years Q1 actual was $13.87. They will guide at least flat, and possibly up slightly, from last years actual. In my opinion there is no way they could guide $3 lower than last years actual without causing serious damage to the stock price. Do not count on Apple guiding higher. last qtr Apple guided lower than the previous years results if I am not mistaken. I definitely agree that if they guide to $11 we will get creamed. I thought last Q1 was criminal with the 9.30 guide and 13.87 results. If Apple guided 11 and came in at 18-19 , I would expect lawsuits. WS is looking for 15, anything less than 13.xx will be just another insult. 15 as guidance next week or as actual earnings in January?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 19, 2012 6:42:05 GMT -8
I think we get guidance of $14.80-$15.00
Actual earnings $19.00+
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 6:42:08 GMT -8
Do not count on Apple guiding higher. last qtr Apple guided lower than the previous years results if I am not mistaken. I definitely agree that if they guide to $11 we will get creamed. I thought last Q1 was criminal with the 9.30 guide and 13.87 results. If Apple guided 11 and came in at 18-19 , I would expect lawsuits. WS is looking for 15, anything less than 13.xx will be just another insult. 15 as guidance next week or as actual earnings in January? Guidance, scary huh!
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Post by Big Al on Oct 22, 2012 0:32:06 GMT -8
15 as guidance next week or as actual earnings in January? Guidance, scary huh! That would be scary... in a positive sense
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Post by appledoc on Oct 22, 2012 6:22:14 GMT -8
Is it a 13 or 14 week quarter this time?
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 22, 2012 6:31:45 GMT -8
Is it a 13 or 14 week quarter this time? 13 weeks. A 14 week quarter is a once in 7 years phenomenon.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 7:34:00 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 7:47:28 GMT -8
I don't care what they report for earnings. It is the GUIDANCE for the current quarter that matters.
Last year iPhone 4s was introduced in Q1 AND last year had an extra week in the quarter.
The guidance for the quarter we are currently in MUST be at least 13. Thirteen is such a BEAUTIFUL number. It means Apple is making $1 Billion per week in profit. AAPL has a trailing EPS of 42.53. Apple is in the holiday quarter. Last year Apple reported $13.87 for this quarter. 16.64 would be a great number, a 20% increase.
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Post by bernard on Oct 22, 2012 11:26:17 GMT -8
I don't care what they report for earnings. It is the GUIDANCE for the current quarter that matters. Last year iPhone 4s was introduced in Q1 AND last year had an extra week in the quarter. The guidance for the quarter we are currently in MUST be at least 13. Thirteen is such a BEAUTIFUL number. It means Apple is making $1 Billion per week in profit. AAPL has a trailing EPS of 42.53. Apple is in the holiday quarter. Last year Apple reported $13.87 for this quarter. 16.64 would be a great number, a 20% increase. However last year the 4S did not go on sale until Oct 14, so it actually had 12 selling weeks in the quarter. The 5 will cover the entire 13 wk period.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 14:57:45 GMT -8
I believe more than any other quarter this year that iPhone revenue is going dominate percentage of revenues, topping 54 %.
Other quarters are 39.7 , 46.4 and 42.2 %
At this point, because of Mac and iPad Mini shortages, my newer estimate is more like $ 18.00 for Q1 (holiday quarter).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 15:00:13 GMT -8
iPhone is critical to guidance.
Now that fiscal Q1 is kind of Transition Quarter #2? Who knows what guidance will be.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 24, 2012 15:42:19 GMT -8
Seriously I dont know how people are getting earnings per share near 20 dollars. Last year actual earnings were 13 dollars.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 18:26:56 GMT -8
I can see a scenario where guidance is in the $11 range. iPad production capacity and "sales freezes" of iMac, some MacBook and iPad may be among the many factors Oppenheimer uses to sandbag us all.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 25, 2012 12:39:32 GMT -8
Well, I think that at least as important as Q4 earnings will be Q1 guidance by Apple. So let's start a discussion on what we expect Q1 to be (I know, it is very early), and what we would expect AAPL to guide. Based on my current calculations my Q1 EPS stands at $16.76. Applying the sandbagging factor of Apple from Q1 2012 I get to an EPS guidance of $11.24. However, I am not sure in how far this factor might still be valid. The analysts' average estimate is currently at $15.43. $11.75 Better than I thought. So we might get an EPS of over $17 next quarter.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 12:42:17 GMT -8
Too optimistic I think.
$16-ish would be more than fine. 14-week vs. 13-week. Not comparable. Expect Oppenheimer to go over this multiple times.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 16:02:58 GMT -8
I project minimum EPS for Q1 at $ 14.00-14.50 using sandbag analysis using ratios of this calendar year.
Higher end projection would be centered around $ 16.00 with $ 17.00 at the high end.
My pessimism focusses on the lower end for now.
EDIT: throw all numbers prior to Nov 1. We got chopped.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 26, 2012 7:57:34 GMT -8
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