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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 6, 2015 10:50:38 GMT -8
Are you saying, gtrplyr, that all your "extra money" is already invested, or that Apple is your only investment? Just curious because so many columns by financial advisors (all geniuses) warn against the lack of diversity in one's investments. My wife and I have found a complete lack of diversity to be profitable by investing 100% in AAPL over the last 15 years and I wonder how many others have done the same thing. In any case, I wholeheartedly agree with your comment, "Cheers to the longs!". I've mostly done the same thing, and it paid off handsomely for me. Though it has been nerve-wracking at times. It helped that I couldn't easily diversify into all the tech stocks I wanted, because the law firm my wife worked for represented Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and many of the other big names, and I would have had to get special permission every time I wanted to buy or sell one of those stocks. Apple was not one of the companies represented by that firm. Great to hear that, firestorm. I've bolded the phrases that also apply to me. The "payoff part" has been well worth the "nerve-racking part".
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 6, 2015 10:59:49 GMT -8
I've mostly done the same thing, and it paid off handsomely for me. Though it has been nerve-wracking at times. It helped that I couldn't easily diversify into all the tech stocks I wanted, because the law firm my wife worked for represented Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and many of the other big names, and I would have had to get special permission every time I wanted to buy or sell one of those stocks. Apple was not one of the companies represented by that firm. Ditto mostly the same thing with me. My IRA has been 100% AAPL since November 2006 but I couldn't invest in any AAPL in my 401K. In 2013 I retired and was able to roll the 401K to my IRA at an opportune time that allowed purchasing more AAPL at $63.00 per share and been 100% AAPL ever since. It does fly in the face of conventional investing advice but it's all common shares so I can ride the ups and downs all the while collecting the divvy. I'm good with that.
My wife and I (working at the same company) were fortunate to be able to invest 70% of our 401K into anything we wanted. So, of course, that 70% went into AAPL. It was a huge advantage to be able to do that for several years before I retired in 2008. And, per your last comment, I'm good with that, as well. Thanks for commenting.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2015 11:25:29 GMT -8
Or what macwire said. Tuttle, I take you at your word that you're not trying to start some political wrangle here. That helps explain, thanks guys. Basically it seems like it's good policy to have more domestic production instead of importing oil, no one could have foreseen the Saudi price war, and these low oil prices shouldn't be tanking the economy they should help the economy, except that Mr Market is a chicken little. Did I get that? Yes, the markets cannot process good news. Of course low oil prices are great for America, with the possible exception of Texas and small- to mid-sized oil companies (but even then, the supermajors will step in). It's like a tax cut, except the "taxes" were going to the Saudi Royal Family. It's not the price, it's the volatility that scares the markets. Sudden moves scare the zebras, even if it's just the wind blowing the grass. Just as I said a few weeks ago, once the oil price stabilizes, everything will be OK. And it was, and we went back above 18,000, until the price started dropping again. Eventually oil has to bottom, as it can't go to zero, and the markets will recover (assuming Greece doesn't take them out). I am loath to give Cramer any credit, but he made a great point yesterday (I see CNBC stuff on Yahoo News where I check AAPL occasionally) that oil in the 40's is 100% great news for America. I can't bring myself to link to it and violate my own rules, but if you search Google for "Cramer: 4-handle oil 'perfectly realistic'" and you'll find the vid. #StoppedClock
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 6, 2015 11:32:42 GMT -8
I think that one of the deficiencies of most financial advice is that it treats all money as being equal. I think it does this to avoid the complexity that arises when we look at the utility of money rather than just simply money itself. $1000 means much more to someone on minimum wage than it does to someone with a million dollar investment account. Once you have enough to cover your foreseeable needs, the consequences of risk go down. I could mortgage my house to invest in Apple because I have sufficient means to pay off the mortgage even if Apple tanked.
I think there is much to be gained by looking at consequences rather than risk. For one thing, you cannot control the risks (E.g. the 2008 collapse), but you CAN create a financial structure that allows you to control the consequences. Rather than trying to minimize risk by diversifying, (and logically minimizing returns at the same time), it makes more sense to me to invest in the best few investments while keeping a large reserve of dry powder. In 2008, when Apple dropped from 200 to 90, I was able to double my investment. The mortgage allowed me to double it again in June of 2013.
Mark Twain said, "Keep all your eggs in one basket, and then WATCH THAT BASKET".
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Post by nagrani on Jan 6, 2015 11:52:39 GMT -8
Remember my comments from yesterday
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Post by macwire on Jan 6, 2015 11:53:05 GMT -8
I don't necessarily think there's anything wrong with concentration provided you know your risks and watch your egg.
It's really the only way to beat the market obviously.
Just have a plan if things turn south.
And most people don't know the kind of risk they are taking on and that is obviously not good.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 6, 2015 12:18:12 GMT -8
I think that one of the deficiencies of most financial advice is that it treats all money as being equal. I think it does this to avoid the complexity that arises when we look at the utility of money rather than just simply money itself. $1000 means much more to someone on minimum wage than it does to someone with a million dollar investment account. Once you have enough to cover your foreseeable needs, the consequences of risk go down. I could mortgage my house to invest in Apple because I have sufficient means to pay off the mortgage even if Apple tanked. I think there is much to be gained by looking at consequences rather than risk. For one thing, you cannot control the risks (E.g. the 2008 collapse), but you CAN create a financial structure that allows you to control the consequences. Rather than trying to minimize risk by diversifying, (and logically minimizing returns at the same time), it makes more sense to me to invest in the best few investments while keeping a large reserve of dry powder. In 2008, when Apple dropped from 200 to 90, I was able to double my investment. The mortgage allowed me to double it again in June of 2013. Mark Twain said, "Keep all your eggs in one basket, and then WATCH THAT BASKET". Very well-stated comment/advice, bud. If I wasn't entirely clueless in 2008, I should have sold our IRAs, with no tax consequences, when AAPL was on the way down to 90 and doubled our AAPL investment as well. After AAPL subsequently recovered, I was certain I wouldn't make that mistake ever again. And I didn't...until 2013. If AAPL ever starts a slide like 2008 & 2013 in the future, please PM me and prevent me from screwing up a third time. TIA
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 6, 2015 12:25:49 GMT -8
"Hope" is not a strategy and certainly not one embraced by the folks on this Board. It seems to me that everyone is quite astute with their investments. Stock picking and doing your own homework has paid off much more than giving your cash to an advisor for a plethora of reasons. I would never trust anyone else with my money - in particular because my career was based in the finance industry. You really do not want to see the sausage be made - it's ugly. I have most of my investments in AAPL but I do invest (both long and short) in other names - like BABA or FB or GOOG or AMZN or BIDU etc. I got very lucky with the Zuck last year and rode it all the way up with straight call options - increasing my bet each time. I'm not in it now but thinking about it. BABA was also a good investment. AMZN - I was always correct but the market never paid me for being correct so I gave up - licked my wounds and then suddenly the market had an epiphany (good word choice for the day) and started to beat the stock down. I was too battered in that name to touch it again. On oil - to think Obama has a conspiracy going with the Saudis leaves me to believe that you are based in Colorado and enjoying your cannibis...you give him too much credit but then again, I don't want to get into a political discussion wrt Mr. O. One funny thing on oil is that the Venezuelan leader, President Maduro (and I use the term "leader" and President loosely since the election was bought) is now reaching out to Russia and China to ask for help on this whole oil issue given that all his projections to line the pockets of his corrupt government were based on oil at $110/barrel. This guy has more issues than Vogue. WTF is Russia going to do for him? They can't even figure out what they are doing for themselves! It couldn't happen to a better group of skanks. Ok - stepping off my soap box for the day - carry on!
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Post by rob_london on Jan 6, 2015 12:36:26 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 6, 2015 12:59:09 GMT -8
Hey looks like we might get those 6 down days in a row after all...
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2015 13:02:35 GMT -8
Hey looks like we might get those 6 down days in a row after all... The EO's just purposely kept AAPL red a few cents to get Nagrani. Popped into green immediately in AH.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Jan 6, 2015 13:15:08 GMT -8
I have most of my investments in AAPL but I do invest (both long and short) in other names - like BABA or FB or GOOG or AMZN or BIDU etc. I got very lucky with the Zuck last year and rode it all the way up with straight call options - increasing my bet each time. I'm not in it now but thinking about it. BABA was also a good investment. AMZN - I was always correct but the market never paid me for being correct so I gave up - licked my wounds and then suddenly the market had an epiphany (good word choice for the day) and started to beat the stock down. I was too battered in that name to touch it again. Ok - stepping off my soap box for the day - carry on! I am heavily into Apple as well, with numerous smaller long positions eating my gains / diversifying my risk (VTI, DHR, UNH, DIS, etc) accounting for the one quarter that isn't AAPL. I picked up (a little) AmZn in 1998, back when it wasn't a competitor to Apple, so please don't yell at me. I trimmed the AMZN position somewhat two years ago and this year added a mini-put to hedge my position to some extent. I really should have sold it after the last big earnings drop.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 6, 2015 13:45:02 GMT -8
Hey looks like we might get those 6 down days in a row after all... The EO's just purposely kept AAPL red a few cents to get Nagrani. Popped into green immediately in AH. We closed in the green. I made 11k on the calls but closed them when we were up. Now I'm just sitting on the puts I sold
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 6, 2015 13:49:50 GMT -8
I think that one of the deficiencies of most financial advice is that it treats all money as being equal. I think it does this to avoid the complexity that arises when we look at the utility of money rather than just simply money itself. $1000 means much more to someone on minimum wage than it does to someone with a million dollar investment account. Once you have enough to cover your foreseeable needs, the consequences of risk go down. I could mortgage my house to invest in Apple because I have sufficient means to pay off the mortgage even if Apple tanked. I think there is much to be gained by looking at consequences rather than risk. For one thing, you cannot control the risks (E.g. the 2008 collapse), but you CAN create a financial structure that allows you to control the consequences. Rather than trying to minimize risk by diversifying, (and logically minimizing returns at the same time), it makes more sense to me to invest in the best few investments while keeping a large reserve of dry powder. In 2008, when Apple dropped from 200 to 90, I was able to double my investment. The mortgage allowed me to double it again in June of 2013. Mark Twain said, "Keep all your eggs in one basket, and then WATCH THAT BASKET". Very well-stated comment/advice, bud. If I wasn't entirely clueless in 2008, I should have sold our IRAs, with no tax consequences, when AAPL was on the way down to 90 and doubled our AAPL investment as well. After AAPL subsequently recovered, I was certain I wouldn't make that mistake ever again. And I didn't...until 2013. If AAPL ever starts a slide like 2008 & 2013 in the future, please PM me and prevent me from screwing up a third time. TIA Earlier today, AAPL was down ~12% from its peak. So the question is, how can we tell if a 12% decline is the start of "a slide like 2008 & 2013" or if it's something else?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2015 14:11:00 GMT -8
The EO's just purposely kept AAPL red a few cents to get Nagrani. Popped into green immediately in AH. We closed in the green. I made 11k on the calls but closed them when we were up. Now I'm just sitting on the puts I sold Looks like Yahoo Finance changed the closing quote. Yes, I don't even have my trading software open today. Anyway, green is good.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 6, 2015 14:32:34 GMT -8
Very well-stated comment/advice, bud. If I wasn't entirely clueless in 2008, I should have sold our IRAs, with no tax consequences, when AAPL was on the way down to 90 and doubled our AAPL investment as well. After AAPL subsequently recovered, I was certain I wouldn't make that mistake ever again. And I didn't...until 2013. If AAPL ever starts a slide like 2008 & 2013 in the future, please PM me and prevent me from screwing up a third time. TIA Earlier today, AAPL was down ~12% from its peak. So the question is, how can we tell if a 12% decline is the start of "a slide like 2008 & 2013" or if it's something else? We don't, of course. But the reception of the iPhone 6/6+ seems to have been incredibly positive. Most of the recent 12% decline appears to be related to the nervous declines in the overall markets, and AAPL, with its high beta, responds "even more so." My only concern is with gross margins; that's what got us in trouble two years ago. Other than that, the product pipeline looks good, albeit with some uncertainty about the reception of the Apple Watch. I suspect it will be a fairly popular new product; I like all the options that they are giving prospective buyers, so that someone wearing an Apple Watch can have it express their own personality and not stick out like a techy geek.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 6, 2015 14:49:41 GMT -8
Very well-stated comment/advice, bud. If I wasn't entirely clueless in 2008, I should have sold our IRAs, with no tax consequences, when AAPL was on the way down to 90 and doubled our AAPL investment as well. After AAPL subsequently recovered, I was certain I wouldn't make that mistake ever again. And I didn't...until 2013. If AAPL ever starts a slide like 2008 & 2013 in the future, please PM me and prevent me from screwing up a third time. TIA Earlier today, AAPL was down ~12% from its peak. So the question is, how can we tell if a 12% decline is the start of "a slide like 2008 & 2013" or if it's something else? This goes back to the utility part. Even if I could time trades on a 12% move, I would not bother to do it. The only way I will sell AAPL is when I peel off a few shares now and then to fund a major purchase. Other than that, I'll leave it to my children. Given that, a 12% move is just noise. This idea of making decisions on the utility of the money is really part of a deeper difference in the way I view the market. One of the best books I have read on investing is "Seven Stages of Money Maturity" by George Kinder. I wish everyone investing would read it. He asks that you answer three questions. The first is "If money was not a factor, what would you be doing with your life" When you can answer that, you can look at how much money you need to do what you really want. Achieving this amount and no more guides your decisions. Most investors want a maximum gain with minimum risk. Less sophisticated investors work from "I don't mind winning, but i don't want to lose". In either case, they have no basis for deciding how much is enough so they take risks and chase momentum and eventually buy high and sell low. I'll let you read the book for the other two questions, but I hope you see the idea. Investing is a means to an end. If you have a specific end that is precisely defined, you will see opportunities that others miss and you will weather the downturns because they really don't matter.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 6, 2015 14:49:41 GMT -8
Earlier today, AAPL was down ~12% from its peak. So the question is, how can we tell if a 12% decline is the start of "a slide like 2008 & 2013" or if it's something else? We don't, of course. But the reception of the iPhone 6/6+ seems to have been incredibly positive. Most of the recent 12% decline appears to be related to the nervous declines in the overall markets, and AAPL, with its high beta, responds "even more so." My only concern is with gross margins; that's what got us in trouble two years ago. Other than that, the product pipeline looks good, albeit with some uncertainty about the reception of the Apple Watch. I suspect it will be a fairly popular new product; I like all the options that they are giving prospective buyers, so that someone wearing an Apple Watch can have it express their own personality and not stick out like a techy geek. 2013 at least had some reasoning behind it as it was a change from 25 to 50 % earnings to something clearly different. This time it is the opposite. Declines like 2013 need to have confermation in the numbers quarter after quarter and don't think it will happen this year.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 6, 2015 15:09:14 GMT -8
Very well-stated comment/advice, bud. If I wasn't entirely clueless in 2008, I should have sold our IRAs, with no tax consequences, when AAPL was on the way down to 90 and doubled our AAPL investment as well. After AAPL subsequently recovered, I was certain I wouldn't make that mistake ever again. And I didn't...until 2013. If AAPL ever starts a slide like 2008 & 2013 in the future, please PM me and prevent me from screwing up a third time. TIA Earlier today, AAPL was down ~12% from its peak. So the question is, how can we tell if a 12% decline is the start of "a slide like 2008 & 2013" or if it's something else? Exactly my point, mark. Clearly, I, and perhaps we, can't tell. That's why I requested a PM from bud777 to clue me in because he was able to recognize the slide and use it to his advantage.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 6, 2015 15:23:05 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Jan 6, 2015 15:38:54 GMT -8
Did we figure out how to find the AFB on tapatalk??
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 6, 2015 16:29:40 GMT -8
AAPL Finance Board should work. Just type it in search. Personally, I like the Proboards app better
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 6, 2015 17:13:39 GMT -8
If I had any money I'd put it to work right now in AAPL ... already 100% in. Cheers to the longs .... Are you saying, gtrplyr, that all your "extra money" is already invested, or that Apple is your only investment? Just curious because so many columns by financial advisors (all geniuses) warn against the lack of diversity in one's investments. My wife and I have found a complete lack of diversity to be profitable by investing 100% in AAPL over the last 15 years and I wonder how many others have done the same thing. In any case, I wholeheartedly agree with your comment, "Cheers to the longs!". Yes ... at this point we are, and have been for the last 5-6 years 100% in AAPL ... main trading account as well as two IRA's. It's completely reckless, irresponsible and maybe the stupidest way to invest ever ... BUT . Now the trick is getting out as we've been overweight in AAPL for probably over 10 years .... We've done very, very well .... at this point I have no desire to push it any further .... I've got a number in my head and when the stock hits it I'm going to start selling. At that point , I'll invest in simple mutual funds and be happy if I make 6-8% a year ... it will be more than enough to sustain the modest lifestyle my family enjoys.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 6, 2015 17:24:11 GMT -8
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Post by michelc on Jan 6, 2015 18:12:00 GMT -8
My investment for the past 15 years have been mostly apple or apple ecosystem related business al the way back to metroworks when apple went to power pc. I always say to my kids to not follow my style in investment unless they can sleep at night doing so because they "know' that investment is safe. AAPL will let me retire from the day job early so that I can pursue new venture. Now the trick is to get out at the right time while not leaving. Easy money on the table. I have begin slowly a year ago to diversify but Apple keep getting higher and be a bigger portion of my investment. ? I still give it a year or two to finish diversification then it's time to handle it to pro. That will give me a potty 7/8 % a year but I can leave with it!!!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 6, 2015 18:39:28 GMT -8
Thanks so much for posting this. I hadn't seen it but I had seen these "stories": Programmer Ignites Debate With Claim Apple Has Lost Software Touchat The Wall Street Journal (Mon, Jan 5) 'I'm deeply concerned for Apple's future,' says star developerCNNMoney.com (Mon, Jan 5) Apple hardware great, software not: DeveloperCNBC (Mon, Jan 5) It's nice to know that the usual FUD folks blew something way out of proportion...again.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2015 19:02:34 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 6, 2015 19:20:27 GMT -8
Are you saying, gtrplyr, that all your "extra money" is already invested, or that Apple is your only investment? Just curious because so many columns by financial advisors (all geniuses) warn against the lack of diversity in one's investments. My wife and I have found a complete lack of diversity to be profitable by investing 100% in AAPL over the last 15 years and I wonder how many others have done the same thing. In any case, I wholeheartedly agree with your comment, "Cheers to the longs!". Yes ... at this point we are, and have been for the last 5-6 years 100% in AAPL ... main trading account as well as two IRA's. It's completely reckless, irresponsible and maybe the stupidest way to invest ever ... BUT . Now the trick is getting out as we've been overweight in AAPL for probably over 10 years .... We've done very, very well .... at this point I have no desire to push it any further .... I've got a number in my head and when the stock hits it I'm going to start selling. At that point , I'll invest in simple mutual funds and be happy if I make 6-8% a year ... it will be more than enough to sustain the modest lifestyle my family enjoys. I'm pleased to hear that you've done so well in the stock but I'm not understanding why you feel the need to get out of AAPL at a future price. As long as my wife and I continue to have confidence in the company, we have no plans to sell at any time in the future (unless I get a PM from bud777 regarding our IRAs). When AAPL was at its lowest point in 2013, the value of our AAPL stock was still far more than we ever intended to have in retirement. Plus, the dividends, totally unforeseen when we each retired, add nicely to any retirement. In any case, gtrplyr, good luck with your plan. And I'm sure we'll all be happy right along with you when AAPL reaches that number in your head.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2015 20:08:53 GMT -8
I have some strong opinions about this diversification topic, but frankly, between a power hike today in 85-degree SoCal weather (ha ha!), and being a little hungover, I'm just too F-ing tired. Short version: Diversification of stocks is a canard made up by fund managers to justify their godlike salaries and very existence. It's bullshit. Here's a great article on it: How Concentrated Should You Make Your Value Portfolio?Obviously, you need to pick the right 1-5 stocks. But just holding AAPL and IBM (with dividends reinvested) for 20+ years, my portfolio has outperformed any hedgie. I was thinking today that I wish this topic has been discussed a few weeks ago. I thought we should come up with a script to randomly assign 5 Dow 30 stocks to each AFB member, and let each member also pick 5, and then compare the YoY results to the Dow 30 Index and mutual funds/hedgies. I'll bet even the randomly assigned ones would beat most funds. Anyway, that's way more than I wanted to write tonight. I think I will go feed my dog and then go buy some more beer.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2015 20:33:29 GMT -8
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