4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 16:27:37 GMT -8
Does anyone open up "short term" deep ITM spreads? I am thinking of doing a Jan 13 500-550 for a possible 28% profit at expiration. While I don't open deep in the money spreads, I hold onto spreads that are deep in the money. The remaining potential on them until the last couple weeks is often amazing. BTW, I have some Jan '13 430-450's, with pretty recently still had 10% remaining before reaching full value, or probably 20% of my expected gains. Now they are getting close to value, and yesterday the ask was more than the $20 of the spread. Anyways, apparently last Friday someone decided to call 9 of those 450's (or rather someone called some, and 9 came from my account). It's only because I checked on my history after buying spreads last Friday that I noticed this, along with the requisite 900 shares being sold. This was the first time in owning spreads or short calls for maybe 7 years that I have had any called away. It's fairly rare, and often the math doesn't make sense for the one calling them away, but it does occasionally happen. Just something to be aware of, no matter how rare it is.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 10, 2012 16:35:51 GMT -8
Lolz...times are a changin ...and now in tonights “Winner Takes All” ulitimate avatar fighting match it’s PODBOY!!! vs. Wheeles. Help, Help, C’mon rutgersguy92 avatar, only you can save him! Actually, Romney can fire Wheeles' avatar, and then fight off Podboy's with the LDS connections. [Apologies in advance for injecting some political humor into the thread, but it was purely timely and non-partisan.]
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 16:45:43 GMT -8
Does anyone open up "short term" deep ITM spreads? I am thinking of doing a Jan 13 500-550 for a possible 28% profit at expiration. BTW, with closing prices it looks like the best price you'd get on those Jan 13 500-550's, just slightly above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread, is 42.8. That's still up to a 16.8% gain, which annualized works out to close to 85%. I don't know about you, but if I could consistently get an annualized return of 85%, with that low of risk, I'd be pretty happy. Nothing is a given, but it would take an additional 14% drop from this level to get down to 550, which would be 22% off the top set a couple weeks ago. You decide how safe that is, and is the reward for that risk is worth it.
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 10, 2012 16:56:36 GMT -8
Well, I'm out of my crazy 670/660 OCT12s bet. Didn't lose TOO much, only a few $K... rolled out to APR13 750/740s, which, today were yielding 300%+ profit. Not too shabby. On another note, WTF is going on with Sharp? Their stock is down to 145¥ today. That's roughly $2 per share. Making total market cap just slightly over $2B. That's... ridiculous. www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-09/sharp-falls-to-at-least-38-year-low-on-goldman-cut-tokyo-mover.htmlApple (through Foxconn) should be negotiating ways to buy their factory/production assets. Buying the company is out of the question (they have tons of debt, and 64K+ employees, eek!), but it would be interesting to have most (all?) of Sharp's production facilities at Apple's disposal.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 10, 2012 16:56:54 GMT -8
Well, _I_ like where the ticker's at now...let's see what everyone thinks. Where on earth are you seeing this? I have no idea where this appears...please advise....wait....do you mean on the page that has the "New Topics"?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 10, 2012 17:00:25 GMT -8
Well, _I_ like where the ticker's at now...let's see what everyone thinks. Where on earth are you seeing this? I have no idea where this appears...please advise....wait....do you mean on the page that has the "New Topics"? Click on the "Home" next to the old Apple logo at the top of this page.
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Post by kloot on Oct 10, 2012 17:08:51 GMT -8
Lovey, Have I mentioned how much I like breaking AAPL Intraday Updates into the days of the week, or giving us quick navigation to individual pages of the thread? Don't know why others couldn't do the same (just lazy I guess). Thank you. It makes you wonder, doesn't it. The only "issue" at the moment is being able to float the real-time AAPL ticker on, say, any page, maybe at the top. But that's hardly a big deal, and really, it's probably best that there only be one page with it, because it _will_ drain a little battery on mobile. on mobile use the app. kicks ass. best way to read the forum actually, except for lovey's annotated charts. for that you need a big ol' screen!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 17:21:16 GMT -8
Does the ticker appear with the Proboards app?
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Post by jeffi on Oct 10, 2012 17:35:50 GMT -8
More fuel for the ongoing debate as to whether or not the market is manipulated... www.cnbc.com/id/49333454FWIW, I shares Phoebe's perspective... Noooooooooooo, we are all just conspiracy nuts that don't understand what is going on, just ask Jeffi. Really? I specifically stated that computerized trading can distort short term prices. In other words, this article is consistant with what I said in my post. I'm really at a loss. Where's the accountability? Sheep get slaughtered.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 10, 2012 17:47:09 GMT -8
Watching the Yankees vs. Orioles play-off game (the iHubby is in his glory with his new 90" tv.....don't ask) and I'm loving the new iPod commercials. It played three times in seven innings. Very well done.
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Post by nkmho on Oct 10, 2012 18:02:43 GMT -8
Does the ticker appear with the Proboards app? No ticker on the app unfortunately. I think tomorrow, I'll try to whip up a web page formatted for phones to show a real-time ticker similar to the one for here, but with other quotes as well. Then maybe, I can ditch the CNBC app.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 10, 2012 18:04:13 GMT -8
More fuel for the ongoing debate as to whether or not the market is manipulated... www.cnbc.com/id/49333454FWIW, I shares Phoebe's perspective... My wife has been interviewing a researcher who's peaking under the HFT covers, finding some interesting things on Order stuffing, odd lot trades not being reported, etc.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 18:07:52 GMT -8
Watching the Yankees vs. Orioles play-off game (the iHubby is in his glory with his new 90" tv.....don't ask) and I'm loving the new iPod commercials. It played three times in seven innings. Very well done. 90" TV!?!
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Post by nkmho on Oct 10, 2012 18:10:57 GMT -8
More fuel for the ongoing debate as to whether or not the market is manipulated... www.cnbc.com/id/49333454FWIW, I shares Phoebe's perspective... My wife has been interviewing a researcher who's peaking under the HFT covers, finding some interesting things on Order stuffing, odd lot trades not being reported, etc. If you read the articles written on Nanex's website, there's a lot of interesting things about HFT. They've written extensively about it and keep telling the SEC about their findings, but of course, they don't do anything about it. www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/OngoingResearch.html
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Post by podboy on Oct 10, 2012 18:40:21 GMT -8
How much validity in these twitter rumors? Purely speculation? IMHO it would be a great acquisition (I'm a shareholder ). I think twitter will be bigger than fb in the near future. Also Siri coupled with twitter & itv would be a game changer.
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Post by ccs on Oct 10, 2012 18:52:58 GMT -8
... (the iHubby is in his glory with his new 90" tv.....don't ask) ... Not asking, just revelling...
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Post by chasmac on Oct 10, 2012 18:53:49 GMT -8
My wife has been interviewing a researcher who's peaking under the HFT covers, finding some interesting things on Order stuffing, odd lot trades not being reported, etc. If you read the articles written on Nanex's website, there's a lot of interesting things about HFT. They've written extensively about it and keep telling the SEC about their findings, but of course, they don't do anything about it. www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/OngoingResearch.html Using supercomputers to track the HFTsThanks for the articles. In the pockets of too many in D.C. IMO for anything to happen until we have a complete meltdown.
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Post by mcharliem on Oct 10, 2012 18:57:13 GMT -8
Anyone who spams the exchanges with orders like this will absolutely get fined by the exchanges. They take spam orders like that very seriously because it's a huge pain in the ass for them to have those orders clogging up the real orders. It happens ALL the time and the SEC and other agencies are not equipped with enough manpower and technology to deal with it. They will find one once in a while but it happens frequently. Anyhow -- more importantly, AAPL -- where to now, Columbus? It's actually quite easy to look for. The exchanges have order to volume ratio that everyone must stay below. If you send too many orders and don't have enough traded volume to stay below their predefined threshold, you get fined. And I guarantee you the fines are more significant than any edge gained from spamming the market with a runaway trade. If you're running a trade at a HFT company and you spam the exchange, you're going to hear from your compliance department and they're going to be pissed.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 10, 2012 19:05:20 GMT -8
More fuel for the ongoing debate as to whether or not the market is manipulated... www.cnbc.com/id/49333454FWIW, I shares Phoebe's perspective... My wife has been interviewing a researcher who's peaking under the HFT covers, finding some interesting things on Order stuffing, odd lot trades not being reported, etc. I remember a guy a few months ago at Cobra actually measured HFT activity. It was quite disturbing the charts he would show and the volume spikes. I guess people have already forgotten about the "disruptor". You remember that gem of an algo that would take 8o points off the DOW in the last 10 minutes of a session. Dramatic swings are no accident. What I remember the most is the flash crash and how retail investors were to blame.
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Post by mcharliem on Oct 10, 2012 19:31:24 GMT -8
My wife has been interviewing a researcher who's peaking under the HFT covers, finding some interesting things on Order stuffing, odd lot trades not being reported, etc. I remember a guy a few months ago at Cobra actually measured HFT activity. It was quite disturbing the charts he would show and the volume spikes. I guess people have already forgotten about the "disruptor". You remember that gem of an algo that would take 8o points off the DOW in the last 10 minutes of a session. Dramatic swings are no accident. What I remember the most is the flash crash and how retail investors were to blame. As a former HFTer and current AAPL bull, I can honestly say there's as much misinformation about HFT as there is about Apple, which means there's a ton. HFT is not rocket science, it's all about managing massive risk to make relatively small amounts of money many times over. There're software risks (program crashes, bugs), algo risks (runaway trades, bad strategies), and general market risks (getting run over in a market spike or crash). If an HFTer wants to create a strategy where they slam the market in one direction or the other, it's extremely difficult and carries a huge amount of risk. Anyone who consistently pushes a market around is living on borrowed time because eventually someone bigger will come along and call their bluff and they'll take a huge loser. There's always someone bigger out there willing to take on more risk than you are.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 19:33:30 GMT -8
(the iHubby is in his glory with his new 90" tv.....don't ask) Wow, that makes the 80" ones look cheap, and the 70" ones downright affordable. www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=90%22+tvSo, you're hosting the superbowl party for the next few years? (still sticking with our old 36" CRT, but ready to buy a FP as soon as Apple show's it's cards)
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 10, 2012 20:28:21 GMT -8
Estimating with a reasonable or even conservative P/E is a margin of safety that's good to have. Totally agree with that. I always base my investments on conservative estimates of what P/E the market will grant. But I don't actually believe those P/E estimates are fair valuation. I still think AAPL is undervalued by the market on a P/E basis, and I was shocked to read Andy say a AAPL has "fair value at 15x earnings". In the past I thought Andy saw AAPL as greatly undervalued by the market. I think it would be undervalued even at a P/E of 20, or over $850 today.
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Post by erictheoracle on Oct 10, 2012 20:47:27 GMT -8
Apparently the market has decided that a higher PE ratio for Apple is most definitely unreasonable, in spite of the growth numbers they have put up. I think Zaky is right in making the $1000 case with no PE expansion. If he is wrong on that, then we just get there faster. But right now, we have zero evidence that he is wrong. In fact, I think there is a pretty compelling case he is right. Of course it can get to $1000 without P/E expansion. Might as well say they're going to sell a lot of iPhones. I just think it's worth pointing out that valuation is so low on a P/E basis that it could go up and still remain undervalued. Andy is great, but he calls a P/E "within a range of 14.5 to 15.5 ... a fitting valuation for the world’s only mega-cap growth company" and says AAPL has "fair value at 15x earnings". It's the "fair" valuation rhetoric at a P/E of 15 that I take issue with. It seems like capitulation. Part of what makes AAPL such a great investment is that it's so undervalued on a P/E basis. He left that out of his analysis. We'll see what the market decides going forward. Nice thing about the market is there's always another year of trading ahead, so we can always say "wait until next year" (with a nod to the Cubs). For what it is worth, PE ratios have been creeping up for several years now since the bottom.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 10, 2012 20:59:16 GMT -8
For what it is worth, PE ratios have been creeping up for several years now since the bottom. Good to know.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 21:16:36 GMT -8
Totally agree with that. I always base my investments on conservative estimates of what P/E the market will grant. But I don't actually believe those P/E estimates are fair valuation. I still think AAPL is undervalued by the market on a P/E basis, and I was shocked to read Andy say a AAPL has "fair value at 15x earnings". In the past I thought Andy saw AAPL as greatly undervalued by the market. I think it would be undervalued even at a P/E of 20, or over $850 today. Don't we all! I understand the issue with the exact wording. And of course I feel AAPL is getting a lower P/E than it should. Unfortunately I've also watched AAPL's P/E drop over the past 9 years. The first bit was somewhat justified, but after dropping down to 30 and then continuing to drop.....well, at some point if you lost serious money due to thinking a P/E should be fair, you lose all confidence in it really being where it "should" and instead starting working with where it will likely be based on recent positioning. BTW, big charts is great to use to see historic P/E. Unfortunately the decade view goes back just a little too far, but the 5 year or 3 year gives a great view of the slow but consistent P/E compression: bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=Stock&symb=aapl&time=12&startdate=1%2F15%2F2008&enddate=5%2F18%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=8388608&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=4&x=25&y=18&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11But at the same time, that mucked up P/E makes it hard for me to consider most other companies. I just looked up TM, and they have a P/E of 16 and a dividend of 1.8%. Hmmmm, while I like out Toyotas, I think Apple is much more likely to grow a whole lot quicker than Toyota. And AMZN, which I always think of as shorthand for Amazing and having invested in since I day-shorted it back in 1999 or so, has some freaking huge P/E. But just as AAPL's being low was justified as worry that SJ might get hit by a bus someday, AMZN's is justified that they are slowly cornering the market and one day will then be able to increase their profit margin. Maybe! Or maybe it will come crashing down someday like NFLX did. What I'm saying is that just like life, P/E isn't always fair. IMO Zaky's use of "fair" might not be right, but if you sub in "likely" for it you get the likely result, that even with continued execution by Apple, AAPL's P/E multiple isn't likely to increase, and IMO it's more likely to slowly decrease. Then again, I try to never bet against AAPL, so while I might leave some or even a lot of money on the table if Apple and AAPL exceed my expectations, I'll still be leaving that table with a big grin on my face.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 21:23:36 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 10, 2012 21:29:13 GMT -8
I've said it before (on the old AFB) and I'll say it again. It wouldn't surprise me to see P/E expand but I'm not counting on it. I was delighted to see P/E go up earlier this year and I hope it's a sign of things to come.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 21:44:41 GMT -8
I don't think we will see a P/E over 20 again until Apple releases a new completely ground breaking, high margin, huge market potential, must have product line. I have an idea about what that product might/should be, and think apple can definitley do it, but it might be a few years off. Its going to be a totally new market, with products similar in cost & necessity to automobiles. Every family in the developed world is going to want at least one of these products, despite the $10k+ cost. Imagine a market as big as the car market, but where only one company sells the product. I'll just leave it at that since this is the intraday thread, as opposed to the WAG fantasy thread.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 10, 2012 21:47:02 GMT -8
The P/E is now down in the mostly 13-16 range, whereas 3 years ago it was in the 30-35 range. Comparing P/E ratios using different accounting standards is tricky business, as is comparing pre- and post-Great Recession P/E ratios. For apples-to-apples comparisons, I use restated earnings to make sure all the P/E ratios include iPhone earnings instead of deferring them early on but not later. The big difference starts showing up in Q1 2009 when the old deferred accounting P/E averaged 17.26 but the new accounting mean P/E was 13.7. In Q4 2009, old P/E was 30.4 but the new P/E had rebounded to 19.8. New P/E averaged about 20-22 for each quarter of 2010, pretty stable. In 2011, P/E compression started again with the final medical leave of Steve Jobs and only stopped after initial iPhone 4S earnings were reported in Jan 2012.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 10, 2012 22:01:14 GMT -8
I don't think we will see a P/E over 20 again.... I'll just leave it at that since this is the intraday thread, as opposed to the WAG fantasy thread. We may not see an average P/E over 20 any time soon, but daily P/E (not mean) did go above 18 in April, rising from under 13 in just over 2 months. If we get that kind of rally again, then you can stop fantasizing about teens, because 20+ will be reality. ;D
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