Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 17, 2015 4:41:29 GMT -8
Have we got a bargain for you... AAPL at only $105.99... Won't be at theses prices for long... Boy everyone must be shell shocked. Saturday morning and no one opened the bar. Like Red, I tried to catch the falling knife. Hopefully it will pay off this week. *** Seems like every time Apple is under price pressure, the conversation turns to personalities. The diverse perspectives provide much to contemplate and discuss. Frankly, we could use a few more perspectives. It's sad to see anyone leave. If you have a problem with someone's posts or personality feel free to block them and you will never have deal with that person again -- or better still, respond, explaining rationally and cogently why you disagree with that perspective (not the person) -- enlightening us all. After all, that is the point of the board.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 17, 2015 4:49:59 GMT -8
Thanks for being the barrista this morning, Since84! Looks like GOOG attempting to give Pay some competition...supposedly in talks with Softbank. What happened to Google Wallet or whatever they called it? appleinsider.com/articles/15/01/16/google-in-talks-to-purchase-apple-pay-competitor-softcard-report-says Forbes article on why AAPL can double from here ... Lord knows if anyone can - it will be AAPL! : www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2015/01/16/yes-apple-can-double-from-here/I know Hollywood can work magic but I still don't see Michael Fassbender as SJ - looks like production is on its way: www.cnet.com/news/lights-camera-apple-filming-starts-for-new-steve-jobs-biopic/Lots of great football this weekend...can't wait to see those Seahawks crash and burn!
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 17, 2015 4:57:34 GMT -8
Always appreciate the help Phoebes -- can certainly use it...
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Post by macwire on Jan 17, 2015 5:16:52 GMT -8
Rough week. Here's to a better month upcoming. I really am thinking I will stop trading aapl options circa mid December and wait out Jan leaps to expire. Woof
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 17, 2015 7:24:34 GMT -8
And as long as we are talking about respect and treating those that have proven their capabilities and skill...I want Phoebes to stop dumping on my shy, quiet, Seahawks.....they are a sensitive bunch....
;-)
Chinacat, we are coming for you and that prissy, momma' Boy Brady. ( oh sorry, don't know what came over me)
As for AAPL, we will be fine...just exactly when is the only question...guidance for q2 should cause the little computer models to get us back into decent valuation country. When MSFT has an 18 /P/e ......well
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Post by hledgard on Jan 17, 2015 7:45:58 GMT -8
I still think the current weakness is all about the Apple Watch. Investors already know the current quarter is great, but it is the prognosis that counts.
There is hype but limited enthusiasm for the watch. Some say Apple will re-invent the idea. That remains to be seen.
Maybe the attractive designs might be the key, but I still think it is unlikely Apple has something up their sleeve.
If the watch is a success, I think the stock will hit 150 in short order.
Oh well, my two cents.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jan 17, 2015 8:10:57 GMT -8
I still think the current weakness is all about the Apple Watch. Investors already know the current quarter is great, but it is the prognosis that counts. There is hype but limited enthusiasm for the watch. Some say Apple will re-invent the idea. That remains to be seen. Maybe the attractive designs might be the key, but I still think it is unlikely Apple has something up their sleeve. If the watch is a success, I think the stock will hit 150 in short order. Oh well, my two cents. I'm not sure why, as an AAPL investor, you don't give Apple the benefit of the doubt regarding its new Watch. I mean we have seen how Apple usually does with new hardware… In any case the Macalope takes to task the Motley Fool article that you cited as supporting your thoughts on the watch. I'm on the Macalope's side here and have a bunch o Jan 16 calls to prove it. I'd chalk up the recent AAPL slide to a bit of over-heated appreciation on the way up as well as the usual FUD and Jan options expiry on the way down. And I hope I'm right. www.macworld.com/article/2871663/those-who-do-not-study-history.html
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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 17, 2015 10:27:19 GMT -8
Simple observation. The higher the hostility in here, the better the buying opportunity. Counterintuitive, but it matches the old blood in the streets concept.
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Post by pauls on Jan 17, 2015 11:31:05 GMT -8
I think the stock can weather a real or perceived 'slow' launch. It's not necessarily what the watch can do for you in 2015...It is just a part of the ecosystem. Functionality one, two, three years out will likely astound.
iOS is such a powerhouse. The watch will sell x number, while phone numbers continue to grow. Anecdotally I don't know anyone who is chomping at the bit to buy an Apple Watch, myself included, but I imagine that will change in time. Ubiquitous Apple Pay will help, as will HomeKit. And then there is HealthKit, AppleTV, Car, Sport functions....
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Jan 17, 2015 19:48:36 GMT -8
I still think the current weakness is all about the Apple Watch. Investors already know the current quarter is great, but it is the prognosis that counts. There is hype but limited enthusiasm for the watch. Some say Apple will re-invent the idea. That remains to be seen. Maybe the attractive designs might be the key, but I still think it is unlikely Apple has something up their sleeve. If the watch is a success, I think the stock will hit 150 in short order. Oh well, my two cents. I'm not sure why, as an AAPL investor, you don't give Apple the benefit of the doubt regarding its new Watch. I mean we have seen how Apple usually does with new hardware… In any case the Macalope takes to task the Motley Fool article that you cited as supporting your thoughts on the watch. I'm on the Macalope's side here and have a bunch o Jan 16 calls to prove it. I'd chalk up the recent AAPL slide to a bit of over-heated appreciation on the way up as well as the usual FUD and Jan options expiry on the way down. And I hope I'm right. www.macworld.com/article/2871663/those-who-do-not-study-history.htmlShouldn't the question then be - how does Apple usually do with new accessories? Because the watch is clearly an iPhone accessory, not a stand-alone product.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 17, 2015 23:51:45 GMT -8
I'm not sure why, as an AAPL investor, you don't give Apple the benefit of the doubt regarding its new Watch. I mean we have seen how Apple usually does with new hardware… In any case the Macalope takes to task the Motley Fool article that you cited as supporting your thoughts on the watch. I'm on the Macalope's side here and have a bunch o Jan 16 calls to prove it. I'd chalk up the recent AAPL slide to a bit of over-heated appreciation on the way up as well as the usual FUD and Jan options expiry on the way down. And I hope I'm right. www.macworld.com/article/2871663/those-who-do-not-study-history.htmlShouldn't the question then be - how does Apple usually do with new accessories? Because the watch is clearly an iPhone accessory, not a stand-alone product. Now perhaps. But don't forget Moore's law. How far are we from having Facetime on a watch without an iPhone? Two generations? Three? Go back and look at the original iPhone. look at how much more powerful it is now. With faster and ubiquitous connectivity we may begin to see iPhones go the way of PC's. The essential need is to be connected to the net in a way that allows us to access and consume information. Whether it is a phone or a watch or an implant is really not important.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 18, 2015 3:41:37 GMT -8
Yep. That would mean the iPod and iPhone are Mac accessories...
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 18, 2015 6:05:07 GMT -8
Apple Implant (tm). Hmmm...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 7:31:09 GMT -8
Apple Implant (tm). Hmmm... It's been tried....I didn't care for it..... So I tried Google Glass implants....caused a lot of problems.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 8:20:27 GMT -8
Playing around with Q1 number projections, maybe we get an iPhone ASP closer to $700 and a GM of 40 ( still seems high with new form factor rollout), which just puts my YOY EPS increase way, way up ( assuming a 7.5%'reduction in share count).
And the cash generated!
Mav, help me out here...
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Post by auhkram on Jan 18, 2015 9:07:16 GMT -8
Playing around with Q1 number projections, maybe we get an iPhone ASP closer to $700 and a GM of 40 ( still seems high with new form factor rollout), which just puts my YOY EPS increase way, way up ( assuming a 7.5%'reduction in share count). And the cash generated! Mav, help me out here... Does anyone know if the strong dollar will play a role in dampening those margins? If so, would that be viewed negatively by the street or given a pass? I remember when the iPhone 5 form factor first appeared, we heard news about how difficult it was to manufacture, I believe even the CEO of Foxconn came on the news to comment on it. People also complained about quality issues about how their new phone had dents and dings. It was also very expensive to make and their margins took a hit, I think this was earnings in Jan 13. Anyway, the iPhone 6 form factor "seems" easier to make as the design seems simpler. It almost seems like a downgrade from the iphone 5 with less complexity to the design. I wonder if this was intentional as they knew demand would be astronomical with the new screen size and that China Mobile is on board with this launch so they needed to have it easier to manufacture.... and just maybe cheaper. So maybe margins will be much better, big question is that strong dollar.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 18, 2015 10:44:59 GMT -8
$700 ASP?! Get me to the fainting couch.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 18, 2015 11:13:51 GMT -8
Red - I don't want to see you in a bad mood when the Packers whip the Seahawks....just accept defeat graciously!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 11:28:12 GMT -8
Red - I don't want to see you in a bad mood when the Packers whip the Seahawks....just accept defeat graciously! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 18, 2015 11:45:10 GMT -8
Red - I don't want to see you in a bad mood when the Packers whip the Seahawks....just accept defeat graciously! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! Easy there, Red. With a combined record of 10-22 New York football fans are not a happy bunch.
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Post by mace on Jan 18, 2015 11:56:49 GMT -8
Simple observation. The higher the hostility in here, the better the buying opportunity. Counterintuitive, but it matches the old blood in the streets concept. Hostility/ "panicky"ness is not that high yet.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 12:15:07 GMT -8
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! Easy there, Red. With a combined record of 10-22 New York football fans are not a happy bunch. It is going to be a fun game...good "Luck" with your Pats!
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 18, 2015 12:53:53 GMT -8
Would love to see a Packers vs. Patriots Superbowl ... a girl can only dream. At least the Packers are having a good start...well not great but good.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 14:50:26 GMT -8
The Seahawks are tanking.....congrats to the Packers....wow...solid performance
In edit at 2:00.. Hold on!
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 18, 2015 15:09:55 GMT -8
The Seahawks are tanking.....congrats to the Packers....wow...solid performance In edit at 2:00.. Hold on! ye of so little faith! how quickly you threw in the towel Red!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 15:31:13 GMT -8
Ha ha..,, yes, I deserve to be punished. But not today! Hawks win!
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 18, 2015 15:52:25 GMT -8
Lets hope AAPL makes s similar comeback! Now off to root for The Patriots so we can have a good Super Bowl ! (My son in law is from Boston and a huge Patriots / Red Sox fan. )
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Post by nagrani on Jan 18, 2015 16:41:48 GMT -8
I'm all in. I bought a bunch of leaps on Friday. Bought the jan 2016 100 calls. Will ride those up till apple hitting 113 and then will close before earnings.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2015 16:46:34 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 18, 2015 18:41:51 GMT -8
What a game!
Not so much for the Patriots game in progress.
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