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Post by prazan on Oct 23, 2012 11:46:36 GMT -8
The new iMac is beautiful, but again, Dec ship? can't get excited about that. The mini is what was expected, but $30 more that I was thinking. I thought $299 was a better fit to draw Kindle customers. Nice products, but it really throws Q1 into a tizzy. I don't think Kindle customers are the target here. It's not a big enough market to draw from. How many have they sold this year? Maybe 5 million? This according to Horace Dediu. And we're all ready to slit our throats over 15 million for the quarter.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 23, 2012 11:46:48 GMT -8
On the lighter side, here's a Facebook post today from a lawyer friend of mine here in Portland:
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 23, 2012 11:47:53 GMT -8
Let's hope we limit the damage to an "inside" day.
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Post by jamesq on Oct 23, 2012 11:49:51 GMT -8
Did TC say 100m iPads or over 100m iPads? If the latter this could represent low 101m or even 103m. Knowing how incredibly cautious he is do you actually think he would provide any actual pre-earnings report number? I don't think so. In any event we'll know for sure on Thursday. He spoke of it "crossing 100 million" 2 weeks ago.
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Post by sponge on Oct 23, 2012 11:50:13 GMT -8
TC said they hit 100M iPads sold two weeks ago. The only thing left for interpretation is what "two weeks" means. Does that mean 14 days ago? Or does it mean the week of October 8 to 14? This is not hard to figure out. It is clear they sold less then 16 million and maybe even less then 15 million last quarter. We can not dance around this one, no matter how hard it is to believe or attempt to justify a different meaning. TC is telling the little guy to watch out, but WS already knew that and has been selling since Sept.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 23, 2012 11:50:30 GMT -8
TC said they hit 100M iPads sold two weeks ago. The only thing left for interpretation is what "two weeks" means. Does that mean 14 days ago? Or does it mean the week of October 8 to 14? Two weeks from when the copy was written? Two weeks from when the slide was prepared? Two weeks from sometime last week? Two weeks from two weeks ago? Who knows? See what I mean?
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Post by mtjs on Oct 23, 2012 11:50:58 GMT -8
I like your attitude, Bill. It's refreshing, compared to some of the other voices of fear. Please, guys, let's man up a little. Agreed! Been dealing with this crap for 10 years now and I'm all in at this point. Apple will prevail. After 10 years... there comes a time... that you should... shave!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 11:53:24 GMT -8
Just watching keynote replay on Apple TV (which is a great experience - is apple hinting at something by doing this?). Anyway - 200 million iOS 6 users!!! Thats 200 million people no longer using google maps by default - makes me very happy
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 11:54:04 GMT -8
TC said they hit 100M iPads sold two weeks ago. The only thing left for interpretation is what "two weeks" means. Does that mean 14 days ago? Or does it mean the week of October 8 to 14? This is not hard to figure out. It is clear they sold less then 16 million and maybe even less then 15 million last quarter. We can not dance around this one, no matter how hard it is to believe or attempt to justify a different meaning. TC is telling the little guy to watch out, but WS already knew that and has been selling since Sept. There's no way we sold 15M, even if the 100M mark was breached on October 8. It was 15.9M units to 100M after the 3rd quarter. At least 14 full weeks passed until the 100M. That's 1.14M iPads a week at best, times 13 weeks for the quarter, gives us 14.82 tops. I don't think iPad units suddenly fell off the face of the earth as soon as Q1 started. Looking at reductions in EPS from this, I went overboard with my initial $1.00 high end guess. More likely to be around 0.50-0.75 off the indie estimates. Still puts us above $9.00.
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Post by mtjs on Oct 23, 2012 11:56:14 GMT -8
Fusion drive looks awesome. OCZ has had something like that out for over a year. In fact, the initial ones have been out long enough that they are now end-of-life models. True, yet the software to support it automatically isn't there. It uses the SSD as cache for the drive, it it is not per se where the OS and some key applications live. You can better buy more ram and assign that to do the same a lot faster and better.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 23, 2012 11:57:20 GMT -8
so much for breakouts. just more trickery to suck people in. glad I didn't bite this time at least. Though I also didn't roll out some Decembers.
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Post by prazan on Oct 23, 2012 11:58:40 GMT -8
Amazon has a core of loyal customers located mostly in the USA. Tablets from other manufacturers have even less traction. I don't think Apple is trying to take share from competitors because that share is negligible. Instead, I think they're trying to carve out an entirely new, international market for this product. That's why the decline in share price based on the Mini's selling price is short sighted, unless the market thinks the product is too expensive to create this new market. That argument has been made before with previous Apple product releases and that argument has been proven wrong in the past.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 12:04:34 GMT -8
Like others have said before, WS analysts wanted a lower entry price with preserved margins. You can't have both. Apple was going down whether the entry price was $299 or $329.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 12:04:57 GMT -8
I do think all the press about the mini slowed sales. That press started the last week of September. I also believe there is a lull on people buying. The ipad is a great Christmas gift and I am sure people have been putting it off for Christmas. This just comes as a shock. Updating now will confuse everyone. I have an ipad3, it is an amazing device and did not need an update. Apple has dried up supply and will now have constraints for Q1. I am not happy.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 23, 2012 12:06:42 GMT -8
LOL!
Sometimes you just have to laugh at the daily movement, and try your best to not worry about it and to look longer term.
While I don't think this irrationality will push the stock below 600, if I does I'll be looking at making some longer term purchases, and maybe a couple shorter term ones.
I haven't looked at the open interest on the weeklies yet, but one might think that with such movement in the underlying, that there would be a lot of juicy weeklies that the EO are looking to squash. That is if they were the writers, and not the buyers.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 23, 2012 12:07:33 GMT -8
kumon is franchise biz that focus on the math. it has 400 million student in asia alone. every student is paying close to US$120 every months. currently kid need to bring home 50 pcs of worksheet every week, if kumon decided to go digital, be it for being green, to promote critical/indipendent/creative thinking. the most possible platform would be iPad because these parent can easily affort an ipad. Enterprise want stable and secure platform.In my view, private school are in better position to adopt ipad the public school in the US. The iPad mini market is huge not only in private school but also in a lot of other franchise like restaurant, properties, Direct marketing company like M-way, health product, etc
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 23, 2012 12:09:58 GMT -8
Like others have said before, WS analysts wanted a lower entry price with preserved margins. You can't have both. Apple was going down whether the entry price was $299 or $329. Likely so true, and yet a week or so ago when an article theorized about a $350 price tag, that sounded fine and dandy. I'm fine to happy with the price, and it gives Apple room to drop it further after it stops being constrained, like next Feb. But until then, I just hope Apple can manufacture plenty of these and the other items announced today, and wish they were all available within the next week or two instead of some (the 27" iMac) not being available until december.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 12:10:57 GMT -8
kumon is franchise biz that focus on the math. it has 400 million student in asia alone. every student is paying close to US$120 every months. currently kid need to bring home 50 pcs of worksheet every week, if kumon decided to go digital, be it for being green, to promote critical/indipendent/creative thinking. the most possible platform would be iPad because these parent can easily affort an ipad. Enterprise want stable and secure platform.In my view, private school are in better position to adopt ipad the public school in the US. The iPad mini market is huge not only in private school but also in a lot of other franchise like restaurant, properties, Direct marketing company like M-way, health product, etc I agree. The Mini is going to be huge for education across the globe. It will help cut costs on text books which are insanely expensive. It also excites children to learn.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 12:12:48 GMT -8
For anyone with a Citi cash back CC, electronics stores are 5% back until the end of December. That's on top of 2% already offered at the Apple store. Makes me think about getting an iMac sooner than I thought.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 23, 2012 12:16:08 GMT -8
Being visible about IOS and iPad potential market make me firm about holding big chunk of aapl share. the future is bright with introduction of the ipad mini because it reduce the cost to fan out the usage of iPad in the biz. this would speed up adoption rate by enterprise, it would have halo effect toward Iphone and iMac.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 23, 2012 12:17:53 GMT -8
What a bummer!!
Still can't get over the $329 starting price. I might understand all the justification for that price but how much of a big deal would it be for Apple to simply price it at 299. From a marketing standpoint 329 sounds quite pricey. When you put it in context to the 199 and 249 prices of Google/Amazon, 299 would still look quite appealing.
And then, of course, there's this iPad number bombshell. I'm going to do some wishful thinking here that there might be a possibility that the number reported on Thursday is much higher than 15 mln.
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Post by The Big Toe on Oct 23, 2012 12:18:49 GMT -8
I have been looking forward to the next iPad refresh (current iPad 1)... I'm thrilled I do not have to wait until April.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 12:20:33 GMT -8
I have been looking forward to the next iPad refresh (current iPad 1)... I'm thrilled I do not have to wait until April. Interestingly enough, I know a lot of iPad owners (1 and 2) who skipped the new iPad to wait for the next refresh. Hopefully this drives home solid holiday sales.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 23, 2012 12:22:24 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 12:24:27 GMT -8
What a bummer!! Still can't get over the $329 starting price. I might understand all the justification for that price but how much of a big deal would it be for Apple to simply price it at 299. From a marketing standpoint 329 sounds quite pricey. When you put it in context to the 199 and 249 prices of Google/Amazon, 299 would still look quite appealing. And then, of course, there's this iPad number bombshell. I'm going to do some wishful thinking here that there might be a possibility that the number reported on Thursday is much higher than 15 mln. Stick with your gut because they stopped production to do a SKU change. The new,new ipad is great for people buying for Christmas.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 23, 2012 12:25:26 GMT -8
I added to all positions end of day.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 12:25:27 GMT -8
kumon is franchise biz that focus on the math. it has 400 million student in asia alone. every student is paying close to US$120 every months. currently kid need to bring home 50 pcs of worksheet every week, if kumon decided to go digital, be it for being green, to promote critical/indipendent/creative thinking. the most possible platform would be iPad because these parent can easily affort an ipad. Enterprise want stable and secure platform.In my view, private school are in better position to adopt ipad the public school in the US. The iPad mini market is huge not only in private school but also in a lot of other franchise like restaurant, properties, Direct marketing company like M-way, health product, etc Once upon a time, I was an ESL teacher in Taiwan. The private after-school education market is aggressive in Taiwan and presumably much of East Asia. If your school is lame and kids are not happy, the majority of teachers know instantly because they are young and remember what it was like to be at that age. Most kids will be satisfied with an iPad mini for sole computer use.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 12:25:39 GMT -8
The new new iPad makes fiscal Q2 the new fiscal Q1, quite possibly.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 12:26:23 GMT -8
Well CRAP iPad, that means I done wrong.
Though I am in caution mode.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 12:29:26 GMT -8
I added to all positions end of day. You still think the low is in, don't you.
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