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Post by BillH on Oct 23, 2012 20:26:22 GMT -8
Actually,no. Almost certainly isn't the same as most definitely...,or...,according to sources...,or...,just about anything else you can dream up to imply Steve signed off. This misses the point however. What was definitely known I posted. Had Steve been alive he "almost certainly" would have run the clip just to poke some fun at himself. Not enough yucks in the presentation today. No offense, but, bullshit. Which part am I dreaming up? That 1) Apple product pipelines are > one year or 2) Steve Jobs worked on the iPhone 5, but knew nothing about a product released a month after it? No offense taken. "The problem was substituting some people's opinion in place of other people's facts. Once again, when Gruber and Dalrymple stick their necks out, they are reporting on deep background Apple sources. Anything else is bullshit. How's that for simple?"
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Post by applemuncher on Oct 23, 2012 20:38:45 GMT -8
Applemuncher 2. Just because they both use aluminum DOES NOT equal the same case design. For all we know, Apple does not even overlap suppliers for these cases. 3. Disagree. Look at Apple compared to any other tech company from a SKU perspective. 5. Is this a competitive disadvantage? Don't think so. Many would disagree on this point. 6. Meaningless until we see sales results. Maybe we are dealing with unprecedented demand. 7. You have any data to back up the claim that a "large percentage" of the cases don't make it off the line? FUDster bloggers with no facts don't count. Regarding guidance being down due to manufacturing and component availability, are you basing this on any facts or just rumours? Where is credible data on the magnitude of this alleged issue? Here is the link for the scratching issue: www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-10/apple-choice-of-iphone-aluminum-said-to-slow-down-output.htmlEverything else in the post was my personal opinion based on observation and gut feel. But we know that iPhone 5 product availability on the Apple online store is 3-4 weeks, and talking to the reps at the Apple retail stores and other retail locations does not paint a pretty picture. I hope the 3-4 week wait for the iPhone 5 is due only to extreme demand for a fantastic product. The iPhone 5 is an engineering work of art. I just wish the battery would last all day and the case did not scratch so easily. That being said, I love my iPhone and it is the best phone on the market.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 23, 2012 21:00:37 GMT -8
I'm a little bit of a panic now...over the last few months I set up some conservative spreads, or what I thought were conservative. But now I"m worried about if AAPL misses earnings this week and if I don't have enough time for things to work out. Here are the spreads I've got...any suggestions? All are Bull Call or Bull Put Spreads Feb 600/610 April 660/670 Jan 14 800/900 Does anyone think I should increase my timeframe and push either the February or April out a few quarters? Or am I just panicking now? If these holdings were mine, I wouldn't touch a thing; and I would not be panicking in the least. Lovely portfolio.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 23, 2012 21:03:49 GMT -8
My voice isn't one of fear. Just one of frustration. And I'll reiterate. I like the $329 pricing, even if the market doesn't. The bottom line will be better with $329 versus $299 in the long run. I'm just disappointed in the iPad number. I also don't like the way it was presented. Earnings related items should be left for earnings conference calls. Just my opinion though. And no, I do not worry about our long term prospects. And reposting my estimates on 4Q iPad numbers... The problem is that Apple is so full of leaks at this point that EVERYONE knew in June that an iPad mini was in the works. So, what did people do....they decided not to buy and wait instead for the debut of the iPad mini. So...there are the lost sales....like everything when people are anticipating a new model...they wait. Apple consumers are more attuned to product refreshes than the average consumer. Sad that Katie Huberty is, once again, right!!! I think any delayed purchases due to the "known" Mini announcement are not material. This was not the "known" iPhone announcement and iPad is a rapidly growing new category. I see this as iPad just not growing as fast as we all thought. Period. With that said, it's still growing pretty damn fast and the Mini is going to put growth into overdrive.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 23, 2012 21:14:24 GMT -8
Not hard to believe that SJ was not part of the mini. He said he didn't like the size. This is a move by new management IMO. Is it safe to assume you're kidding? SJ would have to be a complete moron to have thought that there would need to be only one size of tablet necessary to dominate the tablet space. SJ was a friggin' genius so clearly he wasn't a moron. In fact, though, it wouldn't even take a genius to know this. How so? Well, SJ knew that iPhone was a grand slam homerun product. He also knew that iPod touch was pretty damn successful. He then saw iPad turn into a grand slam almost from day one. So, with all that known to the world's biggest genius, it's probably safe to assume he was smart enough to realize he should create something in the middle of both of them. I think the Mini was already developed years before the regular iPad was released but if somehow that assumption is wrong (seems impossible it would be wrong but nobody knows for sure) then surely the world's biggest genius would have immediately started developing it right after regular iPad hit the market place and took off. iPad Mini has SJ's vision written all over it. I just can't see a genius like SJ acting like a complete moron here. It's just too obvious. In a year or two, we'll likely see a larger iPad (iPad Mega?).
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 23, 2012 21:15:20 GMT -8
The products shown today are simply amazing. Barely anyone is talking about the ipad update at the same price! Amazon and google sell their tablets at cost or close to cost, Apple is a quality company that sells high quality easy to use products. Heres a video of Steve Jobs in 2007 saying that they wont ship junk "We dont offer stripped down lousey products" - Steve Jobs www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_uDaaKMEaI
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 22:05:23 GMT -8
I am worried about Q4 and Q1 for the following reasons: 1. Apple is announcing a major product refresh in the third week of October. I have noticed that when Apple says "Shipping in November" or "Shipping in December", you can count on the product shipping the last week, or even the last days, of the month. I am worried about product availability for Q1. Apple had plenty of time to announce these products in early September. A late October product refresh, without ample inventory available for infroduction, is inexcusable. Me thinks Thou doth protest too much (or something like that). I've already made my FQ1/2013 earnings estimates, without the upgrades announced earlier. Keeping a product/s fresh is important, but not so much when its the best seller in its category. Keeping the #1 product fresh just maintains its lead (3 years?) over the competition. This is no time to get complacent, but neither is it time to panic. I am so tempted to say, "Oh, give me a break". I responded to the same nonsense in another post either here, or at Braeburn. That confusion won't happen again, as I've simplified my life and left Braeburn. Getting back to the point, no manufacturer maintains production capacity for peak demand. Neither does Apple. Apple maintains production capacity that comes into balance about half way through first year post launch, which means surplus capacity during 2nd half, allowing transition to the new model. Every new model launch generates a flood reports that state, "Beware, Apple is having production problems and will miss estimates because of them". The reality in every case turns out to be that Apple production capacity is overwhelmed by demand, and in 3 to 6 months demand will subside, allowing capacity to catch up. Then, when capacity exceeds demand, transition can commence to the new model, adding more capacity (to satisfy full year demand - not peak demand) as required. Different times. Different circumstances. In 1997 Apple was on the verge of bankruptcy, with a product line that was nearly impossible to manage, and was confusing to customers. Not surprisingly, the origins of that product line was the marketing strategy of someone that sold sugared water in 4 dozen varieties. In the last 12 months the world's largest, most valuable Company has grown revenue by 50+%. The buying public doesn't share your view. A sample of one does not constitute a weakness in design. It simply means that your needs are greater than the capacity of the included battery. I am having no such problem. See #2 above Yeah, you could have fooled me.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 23, 2012 22:25:52 GMT -8
I'm sorry. This board is for ALL opinions. I want to hear all opinions, even if you disagree.
It's still a free country as far as I know. Growlllll.....
OOPs....is this a food fight? Oh....nooooooo....... was actually, never good at food fights. Am much better at making....well...food!!
Oh, and one more thing (since no one said that today).....I really value your contribution to this board, so, please don't leave us. Really...don't.
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Post by applemuncher on Oct 23, 2012 22:39:50 GMT -8
Shoot Gregg. I respect your opinion and look forward to your posts. I'm sorry you felt the need to resort to name calling. I knew there was a chance my post would be seen by some people as my trying to start a flame war. I see how you could come to that conclusion. But honestly, I was simply explaining my honest opinions regarding a company that I love very much.
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Post by drewbear on Oct 23, 2012 23:00:39 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " Horace is brilliant, but I'm going to disagree with him on this. Many people want smaller, lighter and thinner. That it's cheaper is just gravy. Apple products will always be "too expensive" for some people. Did Horace say he thinks the Nexus 7 and Kindle Fire HD will outsell the "too expensive" iPad mini?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 23:23:52 GMT -8
I'm sure that tweet from Horace was sarcasm! Don't overthink it.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 23, 2012 23:29:24 GMT -8
[quote author=applemuncher board=intradayupdates thread=130 post=8989 Yeah, you could have fooled me. Until I read this last statement I just thought you were stupid, now I believe you're a stupid troll. [/quote]
Shoot Gregg. I respect your opinion and look forward to your posts. I'm sorry you felt the need to resort to name calling. I knew there was a chance my post would be seen by some people as my trying to start a flame war. I see how you could come to that conclusion. But honestly, I was simply explaining my honest opinions regarding a company that I love very much.[/quote]
I liked your opinion.. I would love for others to feel brave and state theirs. Unfortunately, too many times on this board, people who do this need to wear severe armour because I've seen it get quite messy. This is a fantastic board, moderated by the Queen of all iPads, so, I think we should show some intellectual curiosity and promote all ideas of our favorite stock, whether we happen to completely agree with them or not.
You can tell someone who is just a basher, because they bash rather than converse. You are no basher or troll. Thanks for you ideas. Please continue with us!
We love Gregg too.
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Post by applemuncher on Oct 23, 2012 23:31:30 GMT -8
Here is a great article regarding Jobs and the scratches on his iPhone prototype. www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=3&ref=charlesduhigg&pagewanted=all&‘I Want a Glass Screen’ In 2007, a little over a month before the iPhone was scheduled to appear in stores, Mr. Jobs beckoned a handful of lieutenants into an office. For weeks, he had been carrying a prototype of the device in his pocket. Mr. Jobs angrily held up his iPhone, angling it so everyone could see the dozens of tiny scratches marring its plastic screen, according to someone who attended the meeting. He then pulled his keys from his jeans. People will carry this phone in their pocket, he said. People also carry their keys in their pocket. “I won’t sell a product that gets scratched,” he said tensely. The only solution was using unscratchable glass instead. “I want a glass screen, and I want it perfect in six weeks.” After one executive left that meeting, he booked a flight to Shenzhen, China. If Mr. Jobs wanted perfect, there was nowhere else to go. For over two years, the company had been working on a project — code-named Purple 2 — that presented the same questions at every turn: how do you completely reimagine the cellphone? And how do you design it at the highest quality — with an unscratchable screen, for instance — while also ensuring that millions can be manufactured quickly and inexpensively enough to earn a significant profit?
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Post by applemuncher on Oct 23, 2012 23:39:57 GMT -8
Thanks macZiggy. I have thick skin, and I know the drill. I have been reading posts from MacObserver, and now this great board, for about a year now.
Hey, I'm posting more than Mav...time to get some rest.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 23:47:36 GMT -8
Ahem.
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