JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 23, 2012 14:24:28 GMT -8
The biggest missed opportunity of the event was Apple neglecting to poke a little fun at itself and run the video of Steve saying you'd have to widdle down your fingers to run a 7" device. I can imagine Phil looking toward heaven and saying "we love and miss you Steve but we think you didn't have this one quite right". Actually, no, Steve Jobs almost certainly signed off on iPad Mini. Apple's pipeline is longer than a year.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 23, 2012 14:34:03 GMT -8
Simplify, simplify, simplify. I was wrong about the introduction of a mini. In one way or another we were all wrong, and there's a very good point to be learned there. No matter our own feelings, we (nor anyone else) do not have access to the information that Apple manage does. Because Apple is growing like a well watered/fertilized weed, it is obvious that none of our opinions mean squat. . The problem was substituting some people's opinion in place of other people's facts. Once again, when Gruber and Dalrymple stick their necks out, they are reporting on deep background Apple sources. Anything else is bullshit. How's that for simple?
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 23, 2012 14:38:14 GMT -8
I removed my name from PED's site last qtr. I have given up also as it is a wast of brainpower and God only knows I don't need to be wasting any. Apple's guidance has always been a rubix cube. I have never understood how a company 3 weeks into a quarter and knowing their commitments and plans could not do a better job. I always had high hopes for this qtr from earlier in the year, not so now. Now the question is, did Apple manage to sell the same amount of iphones as Q3, that is a tough one. 26 million is a lot of phones. We shall see. Done playing that game as well. Apple's too big for anyone to really make good calls anymore. I lot of luck is involved. I told Prazan the other day that I was worried about the iPad number (I'm always too high). Wish I had acted on that. The riskiest thing I have are Apr BCSs. Might sell or roll those out after I put in new Q4#s. Ugh. What are the prices on your BCS's? I have some April 700/720, which I feel okay about.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 23, 2012 14:40:40 GMT -8
I predict iPad Mini supply will not catch up with demand before Christmas. And hopefully it's from strong demand, not supply constraints. Which reminds me, that I hope TC says something very strong about IPhone 5 production, and that all the kinks have been worked out, the troops are happy, and quality is being maintained. That would be huge. And as the production/logistics guy that he is, I'm sure that's on his radar screen as well.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 14:46:08 GMT -8
I'm a little bit of a panic now...over the last few months I set up some conservative spreads, or what I thought were conservative. But now I"m worried about if AAPL misses earnings this week and if I don't have enough time for things to work out.
Here are the spreads I've got...any suggestions? All are Bull Call or Bull Put Spreads
Feb 600/610 April 660/670 Jan 14 800/900
Does anyone think I should increase my timeframe and push either the February or April out a few quarters? Or am I just panicking now?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 14:46:32 GMT -8
+1 to JD's point. There are certain "rumors" worth paying attention to, and the usual suspects will confirm - or all but confirm - the ones that really matter (read: iPhone, iPad most times, maybe an Apple television sometime down the road) iMac refresh surprised tho. Just in time for people to wonder of they should just get the new iMac when the Seagate recall notices for the 1TB drives starts floating around. "Good timing."
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 23, 2012 14:51:34 GMT -8
Interesting note from an article to those who are disappointed in mini resolution: "By comparison, the apps shown on the Android device did not have sharp resolution or were simply phone apps “stretched” out to fit on the tablet device."http://www.forbes.com/sites/darcytravlos/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-pricing-takes-down-stock-but-should-it/
Side question, would the ipad mini be considered HD ie play HD movies?
|
|
|
Post by BillH on Oct 23, 2012 14:56:03 GMT -8
The biggest missed opportunity of the event was Apple neglecting to poke a little fun at itself and run the video of Steve saying you'd have to widdle down your fingers to run a 7" device. I can imagine Phil looking toward heaven and saying "we love and miss you Steve but we think you didn't have this one quite right". Actually, no, Steve Jobs almost certainly signed off on iPad Mini. Apple's pipeline is longer than a year. Actually,no. Almost certainly isn't the same as most definitely...,or...,according to sources...,or...,just about anything else you can dream up to imply Steve signed off. This misses the point however. What was definitely known I posted. Had Steve been alive he "almost certainly" would have run the clip just to poke some fun at himself. Not enough yucks in the presentation today.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 23, 2012 14:56:37 GMT -8
I'm a little bit of a panic now...over the last few months I set up some conservative spreads, or what I thought were conservative. But now I"m worried about if AAPL misses earnings this week and if I don't have enough time for things to work out. Here are the spreads I've got...any suggestions? All are Bull Call or Bull Put Spreads Feb 600/610 April 660/670 Jan 14 800/900 Does anyone think I should increase my timeframe and push either the February or April out a few quarters? Or am I just panicking now? They look okay to me, but I think my April 700/720's will be okay. There's six months to April, and AAPL has shown the ability to hit new highs in less than six month increments. So I think it should hit 720 before April. And then you have Andy Zaky saying it might be at 1000 by as early as July, and I think that 720 should be kid's play for AAPL.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 15:04:14 GMT -8
I'm a little bit of a panic now...over the last few months I set up some conservative spreads, or what I thought were conservative. But now I"m worried about if AAPL misses earnings this week and if I don't have enough time for things to work out. Here are the spreads I've got...any suggestions? All are Bull Call or Bull Put Spreads Feb 600/610 April 660/670 Jan 14 800/900 Does anyone think I should increase my timeframe and push either the February or April out a few quarters? Or am I just panicking now? I will trade you. Heck, even if it moves sideways your Feb are a position I wish I had. Apple is going to add earnings for 2 qtrs, may not be as much as we thought, but still will be adding. worst case 48x13=624. Things are bad and will probably get worse, but they will get better eventually and believe it or not AAPL will get back to a 15 p/e one day. I just don't know when. I am sitting on a lot of 680/700 Jan spreads that need 684 to break even. Who do you think is sweating more, you or me?
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 15:14:08 GMT -8
From AZ's Twitter:
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 15:24:00 GMT -8
Just tweeted:
Horace Dediu @asymco
"The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. "
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 15:26:48 GMT -8
Where are you getting this from? I'm looking at the tweets I have and see nothing. Which @ account is that?
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 15:27:37 GMT -8
Apple is going to add earnings for 2 qtrs, may not be as much as we thought, but still will be adding. worst case 48x13=624. Remember, you don't need to be above the high spread at expiration to profit. The lowest peak P/E from earnings to earnings since 2003 was 15.07 following the announcement of 2Q2012 earnings. Using your worst case scenario of a 48.00 TTM after 1Q earnings, that gives you a 723.36 high price target at some point before 2Q earnings in April. Basically, don't hold out until expiration to try to lock in max profit on spreads. Set a target for yourself (mine is now going to be 80% of full value) and sell when you reach that. Then wait for the inevitable quarterly decline and use that powder.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 15:28:17 GMT -8
Where are you getting this from? I'm looking at the tweets I have and see nothing. Which @ account is that? @bullishcross
|
|
|
Post by nate010203 on Oct 23, 2012 15:34:17 GMT -8
I dont know why sponge is always so bearish. Anyways, I still think there is hope for good earnings on thursday. If earnings miss then I guess it wont be too bad I have been growing accustomed to 3-4 percent moves on a single day.
The ipad mini is a new product. It will increase revenue. The product didnt exist in previous quarters. Yet somehow increasing revenue by releasing a new product is bad news? Apparently so if you look at how wall street reacted today.
Whatever happens this week I am staying put. I kind of wanted to trade but I do have a little rule, when I am down on a trade and I am all in I dont get out of the trade because any upward movement that I miss will just make my cost basis higher.
I have no idea what will happen to apple stock for the rest of the year but I am really hoping to end the year near 700 or at the very least get up to that point again so I can take money off the table.
This whole sale for the past month has had me scratching my head. Im still up for the year so Im just playing with house money. The second 590 is breached I will have some difficult decisions to make, Im hoping it doesnt come to that.
If I had to make an educated guess I would say that the downtrend is almost over, however its just a guess I cannot say for sure what the stock will or will not do.
Meanwhile amazon has a p/e of near 300 and 80 cents a share earnings per year and a stock price of about 250 (im too lazy to look up the exact quote)... yep makes perfect sense... perfect sense.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 15:36:50 GMT -8
Moskowitz at JPM just put this out - it's much longer but I just grabbed the pghs that I thought you may want to see:
Abstract: On Tuesday afternoon, shares of OW-rated Apple retreated following the iPad mini announcement. We think the pressure was overdone. While the base model’s ASP of $329 was higher than our estimate of $249, the base specs are better than expected. We think the iPad mini, coupled with the 4th-gen iPad, underscores Apple’s accelerated refresh rate of important devices and software. With the iPad mini and the new 4th-gen iPad, we believe Apple does not plan to forgo the profitable parts of the lower-end segments in tablets. In our view, the larger screen size and iOS 6 capabilities of iPad mini stand to be good enough to grab share from the $199 tablet crowd.
Dec-Q is what matters, not Sep-Q. Apple has been active with impactful product updates ? iPhone 5, 4th-gen iPad, and the iPad mini. Given the elevated media and customer focus on these devices, we think any volatility in operating numbers for the Sep-Q is temporal noise and not indicative of moderating growth. In our view, these new products stand to contribute to increasing upside potential for the Dec-Q. As a result, we think the only numbers that matter are Dec-Q results in late Jan. and the resultant effects on Street consensus estimates.
iPad mini offers more goodies at the start. We walked away impressed with the look-and-feel of the iPad mini. Despite not having Retina display, the device’s screen resolution is better than expected. The device is light, balanced, and easy to hold with one hand. As for the base price of $329, it is higher than what we estimated, but the key delta is the base storage capacity of 16GB, versus our estimate of 8GB. We estimate this delta adds about $50 to the retail price, leaving about a $30 gap to our prior base estimate.
iPad mini rollout to be faster than anticipated. Our research indicated that the iPad mini release would not be fast and furious. This view appears to hold only for the WiFi + cellular models, which will not start shipping until early to mid-Nov. and first in the U.S. followed by other regions at later dates not yet specified. As for the WiFi-only iPad mini, shipments will begin Nov. 2, which stands to make for a strong sales push during the holidays. In our view, this staged approach from a connectivity perspective is reasonable, given that market research firm IDC estimates 64-65% of tablets shipped are WiFi-only.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 23, 2012 15:38:31 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 15:41:42 GMT -8
Basically, don't hold out until expiration to try to lock in max profit on spreads. Set a target for yourself (mine is now going to be 80% of full value) and sell when you reach that. Then wait for the inevitable quarterly decline and use that powder. Appledoc, I was just referring to his Feb position. I painted a worst case for that position and it still ends up ITM. Pretty safe considering the use of the low P/E.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 15:43:43 GMT -8
Great and simple article about the pricing - gotta love AAPL:http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/technolog/ipad-onomics-why-apple-priced-ipad-mini-329-1C6641506?ocid=twitter
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 15:46:59 GMT -8
Don't forget about the 2159 share he also received. Heck of a payday for almost screwing up the best etail chain in the world.
|
|
|
Post by Iceage on Oct 23, 2012 15:48:01 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " I think the problem with the pricing has to do with Apple keeping the iPad 2 on the market. If it wouldn't be for the iPad 2, we would be comparing $329 to $499 and not $399. So, the choices would be $329 for a smaller non-retina display iPad or a bigger, retina display iPad for $170 more. IMHO, with only two choices, for most people, it would come down to what size they prefer. Retina or non-retina, most people don't care. The iPad 2 should have been discontinued.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 15:50:26 GMT -8
just one comment about iPhone 5 - the speak recognition is incredible. Texting has become so easy - can't even begin to tell you!
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 15:51:33 GMT -8
Just tweeted: Horace Dediu @asymco "The iPad 2 is cheap. The iPad mini is the same as an iPad 2 but smaller, lighter and cheaper. Therefore the iPad mini is too expensive. " I think the problem with the pricing has to do with Apple keeping the iPad 2 on the market. If it wouldn't be for the iPad 2, we would be comparing $329 to $499 and not $399. So, the choices would be $329 for a smaller non-retina display iPad or a bigger, retina display iPad for $170 more. IMHO, with only two choices, for most people, it would come down to what size they prefer. Retina or non-retina, most people don't care. The iPad 2 should have been discontinued. Completely agree and I think it would have made a big difference but I am not understanding why they kept it.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 16:15:04 GMT -8
just one comment about iPhone 5 - the speak recognition is incredible. Texting has become so easy - can't even begin to tell you! For someone like me who can see the letters hardly, SIRI makes texting a breeze. (I do not text much, but it sure is easier when I do)
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Oct 23, 2012 16:20:14 GMT -8
I have an iPad3. The difference between it and the 2 are like night and day. When the mini is retina available I will certainly buy one . If I did not have an iPad I would probably be thrilled to start out with the $329 new mini. The 2 will probably soon be history unless the enterprise/educational demand persists. I really don't see any bad news here. Choice is always a good thing. I now remind myself twice daily that Apple will continue to take care of aapl; can they control the markets and the global Econ? Of course not.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 23, 2012 16:25:01 GMT -8
A real puzzler for me today is why they announced the new iMac's when they won't ship until November and December. This will totally stall out existing sales. I don't get the strategy. I want one and can't have one so I am sulking. I have the existing 27" model and can't justify upgrading yet.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 16:27:25 GMT -8
It's a redesign worthy of a media reveal, I guess.
If the 13" MacBook is the top-selling MacBook and notebooks outsell desktops, I don't think Apple "cares" about the sales pause.
Curious decision in my book, but understandable given that they wanted to showcase the iMac and by extension the efforts of the hardware design team. I'm not saying I agree, but I can see why Apple did it. The net effect is more sales pause than lost sales. And this way "the people" know Apple still very much gives a damn about Macs. Recall the iMac G4 >> iMac G5 wait, and Apple's messaging then.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 23, 2012 16:33:07 GMT -8
Yep to the media reveal I guess. I have seen a few early impressions and these iMacs sound stunning. Maybe all the free coverage by being part of this show, will more than compensate for the pause.
|
|
|
Post by Iceage on Oct 23, 2012 16:34:51 GMT -8
A real puzzler for me today is why they announced the new iMac's when they won't ship until November and December. This will totally stall out existing sales. I don't get the strategy. I want one and can't have one so I am sulking. I have the existing 27" model and can't justify upgrading yet. It's released within the same quarter, so I don't see any effect on quarterly sales. That you buy one now or wait a month or two to buy the new one, the sale will be recorded in the same quarter anyway.
|
|